On Paper: Lions vs. Packers

(Note from Sean: I'm feeling lazy today, so I bumped this to the front page.)

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*Rankings based on yards per game

Lions pass offense (16th) vs. Packers pass defense (17th)

Past Packers opponents:

J. Cutler 17-36, 277 yards, 1 TD, 4 INTs, 43.2 rating

C. Palmer 15-23, 185 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs, 93.3 rating

Boller/Bulger 19-35, 187 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 76.7 rating

B. Favre 24-31, 271 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INT, 135.3 rating

The Packers have done a decent job in holding opposing quarterbacks in check.  The one exception is, of course, Favre, who just happened to have an outstanding week against his former team.  They rank decently in opponent's QB rating at 13th, but only have managed five sacks this season (T-26th).  

The key to this matchup is the Lions' injuries.  Their two best offensive players, Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, did not practice on Thursday and look like they are unlikely to play.  This is a bit surprising because Stafford did practice on Wednesday (limited, though).  Perhaps his knee did not react well to the activity, or maybe there's another explanation.  At this point, I believe both will be sidelined on Sunday.

So it looks like we'll see Daunte Culpepper in action again. He had an okay week against Pittsburgh.  His stat line looks solid (23-37, 282, 1 TD 1 INT), but there was much more to his performance than that.  When the game was on the line, Culpepper was not sharp.  A bad intentional grounding penalty, a horrific interception and an inability to read pressure coming right at him stalled three crucial drives for the Lions.  Given that Green Bay is third in the league in interceptions (7), Culpepper is going to have to limit his mistakes on Sunday.  Green Bay has a very solid secondary, and without Calvin, Culpepper will have to utilize a variety of options to keep the Packers guessing. 

I expect the Lions to perform a lot like they did last week against the Steelers.  They'll move the ball occasionally, but will likely suffer the consequences of mental mistakes.  If Daunte can limit those mistakes to one or two, the Lions may be successful, but I have to give the slight edge to Green Bay +1.**

**If Stafford or Calvin plays, I give the slight edge to the Lions

Lions run offense (19th) vs. Packers run defense (20th)

Past Packers opponents:

Forte/Wolfe: 28 rushes 70 yards 0 TDs

C. Benson: 29 rushes, 141 yards 0 TDs

S. Jackson: 27 rushes, 117 yards 0 TDs

Peterson/Taylor: 27 rushes, 63 yards, 1 TD

Though Green Bay looks to be poor in defending the run, they actually rank 7th in opponent's yards per carry (3.5).  The reason for the low ranking is because their opponents have attempted the second most rushes amongst teams that have played 4 games (6th most overall).  Also, the Packers have faced the two leading rushers in the NFL already in Peterson and Benson (yes, Benson is your current rushing leader in the NFL).  The game plan against the Packers seems to be run the ball and control the play, in order to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field.

The Lions have had some past success implementing that game plan, but not lately.  Kevin Smith's numbers has been awful recently.  He's only averaging 3.1 a carry on the year, and only 2.1 a carry in the past two weeks.  Part of this is defensible, because the Lions have already faced four of the top 11 run defenses in the league, but 2.1 a carry is inexcusable regardless of opponent.

Every team the Packers have faced has attempted at least 27 rushes on them.  They can expect more of the same from the Lions on Sunday.  Smith is averaging about 19 carries per game, and will likely get at least that many on Sunday.  As long as the Lions don't fall behind too early, he'll likely get around 70-80 yards but in very small increments.  Smith hasn't had a game where he's failed to break a run of 10+ yards since week one, but he's going to have to work hard to keep that streak going.  This matchup could really go either way, with the most likely outcome being a mediocre day from Smith.  Draw.

Packers pass offense (12th) vs. Lions pass defense (27th)

Aaron Rodgers is continuing to prove his worth in the NFL this year.  He's fifth in QB rating, and has only turned the ball over twice this year.  How do the Packers reward such a performance?  They allow him to get sacked a league-high 20 times this season (the next closest of teams that have played four games is 12).  Again, it's important to put this statistic in context.  The Packers have had all sorts of shuffling on their offensive line this year.  This week, they'll likely get back their starting LT Chad Clifton, who has been out the past two games.  Also, a lot of the blame has been put on Rodgers himself for the sacks.  Even throughout all this pressure, Rodgers has minimized turnovers.  It appears he is more content with taking a sack than trying to make a reckless play, and rightfully so.

The Lions will try to add to the sack total by bringing tons of pressure once again.  The Lions only have ten sacks on the year (14th), and are ailing on the defensive line.  They may be without DEs DeWayne White and Jason Hunter, who both did not practice on Thursday, according to Tom Kowalski.  Hunter leads the team with 2 sacks.  The Lions will need to get some pass rush from newcomer Turk McBride and Cliff Avril, who is coming off a hamstring injury. 

If they fail to take Rodgers down, he will beat them deep.  Rodgers leads the league in yards per completion (14.3) and is a constant downfield threat.  Given that the Lions secondary is banged up (and horrible even when healthy), Rodgers could be in for a big day.   The Lions still rank last in opponents QB rating, completion percentage and passing touchdowns allowed.  I don't see that changing after this week.  Packers +2.

Packers run offense (22nd) vs. Lions run defense (21st)

Ryan Grant has been struggling somewhat, averaging only 3.8 a carry, which ranks him 30th among active running backs.  Again, offensive line shuffling can be partly to blame for this output.  But Green Bay's lack of production cannot be ignored.  Against, the lowly Rams, Grant only managed 3.8 a carry against the 24th ranked run defense (though he had 99 yards). 

The Lions, on the other hand, have been somewhat successful in their run defense.  Though they are giving up 5.2 yards per carry (which is fifth worse), they are mostly holding opposing running backs in check.  The Lions have looked solid on most running plays, but are very prone to letting a running back break a big gain occasionally.  In each game, so far, the Lions have allowed a rush of 20 yards or more.  Grant, however, has yet to have a rush of more than 17 yards. 

This should be a slugfest between both teams.  But, truthfully, the Packers have no need to run the ball in this game.  They should have plenty of success through the air.  Now, they'll run the ball occasionally to try to keep pressure off of Rodgers, but I don't expect Grant to be a big part of the Packers' game plan.  Therefore, we're left with another Draw.

Special Teams

Packer Jordy Nelson steps in for the injured Will Blackmon on punt and kick returns.  Nelson muffed a punt against the Vikes, but otherwise has been a fairly reliable kick returner, averaging 22.6 yards per kick return.  He only has 3 career punt returns, so he could be prone to another muff or two.

Meanwhile, the Lions welcomed back Derrick Williams to the special teams unit last week, and he looked fairly competent back there.  Though he only averaged 21.8 yards per return, he started off the game solidly, with returns of 34 and 27 yards, one of which was nearly broken for a much longer return. 

Mason Crosby has been reliable, as his only two misses have come from 40 yards or longer.  He also missed an extra point, but it was the only one he's missed in his career, so don't expect it to happen again.  Jason Hanson missed his first field goal this season last week, but remains fairly reliable.

Still, the Lions special teams unit is too inconsistent to not be at least a little worried every time the Lions kickoff.  The Lions actually rank 31st in kick return average against, though this is likely skewed by the 102-yard touchdown allowed against Chicago.  Luckily, Green Bay doesn't have a special teams weapon like Johnny Knox, so this matchup is a tenuous Draw.

Overall

In the end, Green Bay has the smallest advantage I've calculated yet at +3 (only +1 if Stafford or Calvin plays).  In fact, when it was announced that Stafford practiced on Wednesday, I was all ready to pick the Lions to win for the first time this season.  I've got nothing against Culpepper (okay, not completely true), but I think Stafford provides a downfield threat that will spread opposing defenses out.  Culpepper can do a good job managing 90% of the game.  The problem is that other 10% that just kills his team.  Given that Green Bay has forced 10 turnovers (3rd in the league), they will likely take advantage of his mistakes. 

For another year, we get to pull out the stat that the Lions haven't won in Lambeau since 1991.  However, all may not be lost, as this is the first time that the Lions are playing in Lambeau in the first half of the season since 2003.  The weather is calling for a decent day of 55 degrees and sunny.  So any weather-related home field advantage is negligible this week.  I really want to pick the Lions this week, because 2-4 at the bye week looks amazing given the teams the Lions have gone up against, but I don't have the confidence in Culpepper and this pass defense is just too bad.  I expect a game that looks a lot like the Lions/Steelers game last week.  Packers 27- Lions 20.