Post Bye Week - Offensive Player Based Analysis

By popular demand, I am going to go ahead and re-rate each of the players for the Lions, now that they have passed their bye week and are heading into the second half of the season.  First of all, I want to be clear that I am going to use my old analysis as a mold, altering it with updated stats and opinions.  This is because I have much of the same feelings now as I did then, and I do not want to take as much time to do it as I did after week 3.  Because of these facts, I am going to split the analysis into 2 parts (Offense and Defense - one today and one tomorrow) and provide the link to my prior analysis for comparison.  Here is the link:

http://www.prideofdetroit.com/2009/10/1/1064932/guys-i-am-super-bored (you may have to copy and paste).

Please keep in mind that I will base my analysis on actual stats, and I will add my own personal opinion to it. I hope that this post will be enlightening and interesting to all of you, and I look forward to your comments and additions.  I will give each player a rating based on a scale of 1-10, with 1 being useless, 2 being poor, 3 being slightly useful, 4 being below average, 5 being average, 6 being above average, 7 being solid, 8 being very solid, 9 being amazing, and 10 being the picture of perfection.  The analysis will begin after the jump.

Offense:

QB - Matthew Stafford

Again, I must tread lightly here as I am over the entire QB debate here.  Stafford is a rookie in this league, and he has only played in 4 games this season.  We have seen flashes of greatness out of the young gunslinger, and we have also seen him make some boneheaded decisions that make it obvious that he is a rookie.  Stafford has attempted 139 passes over 4 games, completing 79, for 894 yards.  His completion percentage is 56.8% (which is an improvement from the last analysis) and he has thrown 3 TD passes versus 6 interceptions thus far.  He has been sacked 10 times now (twice as many as before) and his QB rating has improved from 57 to 65.5, albeit still pretty weak.  I believe he still has work to do to improve his accuracy and, subsequently, his completion %.  He has a 2 to 1 interception to touchdown ratio currently, which is bad but understandable (if not expected).  He is showing improvement in his reads (pre-snap and after the snap), and is making better decisions on when to throw the ball away or take the sack. He has rushed for 50 yards and a rushing TD on 7 rushing attempts.  He had shown steady improvement up until the knee injury, and I feel he has done a pretty good job so far as a rookie QB in Detroit.  Rating on a scale of 1-10, I still give him a solid 6 (above average) as he is still developing and has work to do before he will be solid.

RB - Kevin Smith

Kevin Smith seems to have regressed a bit since week 3.  He has had double the rushing attempts (109, up from 55, which shows that the play calling has remained pretty consistent) since week 3, but has only gained 144 more yards (for a total of 348, up from 204).  He has 3 TDs (he has only scored twice while rushing since week 3).  His YPC has dropped from 3.7 yards per carry to 3.2.  I still think he is the real deal, but he is going backwards from my previous target of 4 YPC.  Maybe it is the defenses we have faced, or maybe it was his shoulder, but we need him now more than ever and he must step up.  He also has 20 catches for 149 yards (up from 12 catches for 80 yards), so he is still able to get it done on multiple levels.  He can still have a very good season if he continues on his current pace.  Rating on a scale of 1-10, I still say he is a 7.

RBs - Aaron Brown and Maurice Morris

Neither one of these two backs has done a whole lot since my last analysis.  In fact, Aaron Brown has only had 3 rushing attempts since week 3 and he has only gained 16 yards rushing since then.  He has had 1 catch for 14 yards since week 3.  His main role since week 3 has been as a kick returner, where he has been less than consistent even though he did manage to gain 141 return yards on 7 kick return attempts since week 3.  His kick return total is up to 455 yards on 20 attempts for a 22.8 yard average (down 1.4 yards on average, from 24.2, since week 3).  His dropped attempts and lack of consistency in the return game has brought on an increased role for rookie Derrick Williams in the kick return game.  It is a similar story for Mo Morris, who has only had 2 rushing attempts since week 3, for a gain of 18 yards (bringing his total to 43 yards on 12 attempts).  Morris has not scored since my last analysis, and he has only caught 2 passes for a gain of 17 yards (bringing his total to 4 catches for 29 yards).  Ratings on a scale of 1-10, my opinion here has changed.  As of right now I give both Brown and Morris a 5 at best, they need to pick up their games.

FB - Jerome Felton

Felton has continued to impress me as a blocker and a short yardage back.  He has increased his YPC from 1.5 to 3.3 since my last analysis, further proving that we can count on him when we need a yard.  He also continued to show that he is a legitimate receiving threat, as he has increased his totals from 1 catch for 21 yards to 8 catches for 85 yards this season.  While his role has still mainly been as a blocker, he has also increased his rushing totals from 9 yards on 6 attempts to 33 yards on 10 attempts.  Again, as I said before, as the season progresses I hope that the Lions utilize him more in the offense.  He has done a great job so far in his role.  Rating on a scale of 1-10 (for his role), I still give him a solid 8 for being a surprisingly solid fullback.

WR - Calvin Johnson

We have all seen what happens when CJ is injured now.....our offense struggles.  Even with the injury, CJ has increased his totals from the last analysis, from 13 catches for 190 yards and a TD, to 22 catches for 325 yards.  He has not scored since my last analysis however, but he did add to his rushing total as well (4 for 37 yards up from 3 for 25).  He is averaging 14.8 YPR (up from 14.6), and I think we still know that he is the best player we have.  Even though he has not had spectacular production numbers since my last analysis, we all know that he is still one of the best WRs in the game today.  Rating on a scale of 1-10, I give him a solid 9 (10 being perfection).

WR - Bryant Johnson

Bryant Johnson had been a pleasant surprise in his emergence this season, until weeks 4, 5, and 6.  He had 8 catches for 118 yards and a TD, with a 14.8 yard per catch average as a compliment to Calvin Johnson after week 3.  Since then, he has hauled in another 8 catches but he has only gained 80 yards (bringing his totals to 16 catches for 198 yards).  He has not scored since my last analysis.  Without Calvin Johnson on the field, Bryant Johnson has shown that he does not have what it takes to step up and be a #1 WR.  He has shown that he can take pressure off of CJ and our other receivers, which makes him a valuable #2 WR, but he has struggled without the threat that Calvin Johnson presents to opposing defenses.  Rating on a scale of 1-10, I give him a high 6 now, borderline 7........down from the 7 I had previously given him.  He is a 7 when CJ is playing, and only above average without him.

WR - Dennis Northcutt

Northcutt did not impress me through the first three weeks, but since then he has come on pretty strong.  As a punt returner, he has been pretty average, but as a receiver he has played very well since my last analysis.  He has 17 catches for 151 yards and a TD (averaging 9.5 YPR), which is up from 5 catches for 38 yards and a 7.6 YPR average.  I was saying before that Northcutt needed to step up his game, and I feel he has delivered nicely for a #3 WR without a big play receiver on the field to garner attention.  Rating on a scale of 1-10, I am going to increase Northcutt's rating from a shaky 5 to a solid 5.....I still do not think he is above average, but he is playing much better now.

TE - Brandon Pettigrew

Pettigrew has still shown excellent blocking skills and the ability to get open in space, but he really needs to catch the ball, especially when it is hitting him in the hands!  Once again, there is obvious room for improvement and he is a rookie.  I still feel that he is doing a pretty good job for being a first year player at TE, but the drops are inexcusable in my opinion.  He has 12 catches for 152 yards and a 12.7 YPR (up from 6 catches for 67 yards, with an 11.2 yard per catch average).  Not entirely bad by any means, but again I would like to see him get open more in the red zone, or at least have his large frame utilized in such a role, and I would like to see him work on catching the ball.  Rating on a scale of 1-10, I still give him a solid 6, as he is still above average for a rookie TE in my opinion.

TE - Will Heller

Heller has not only been a decent blocker, but he has also emerged as an excellent option at receiving TE in my opinion.  He has 9 catches for 131 yards and a TD, with a YPR of 14.6 (up from 4 catches for 40 yards, with a 10 yard per catch average).  As a TE2 (if you can call him that), I think he has come along quite a bit since my last analysis and shown that he is a viable option for whoever our QB is.  Rating on a scale of 1-10, I am increasing Heller's rating to a 6, up from a solid 5.

TE - Casey Fitzsimmons

2 catches for 10 yards since my last analysis?  I have three words for you.....Bring up Gronkowski!  Rating on a scale of 1-10, Fitzsimmons is a definite 3 now as he is only slightly useful as a ST player (I almost deleted him from this analysis completely).

K - Jason Hanson

Ok guys.....here is where I give my highest rating (not much change from my last analysis).  This man is near 40 years old, and he is still banging FGs right down the middle of the uprights, like clockwork, from 50+.  Hanson is 9 for 10 so far this season on FG attempts (missing only on a 49 yard attempt I believe), and perfect on XPs.  Even after a minor knee surgery, he is still kicking balls close to (if not into) the goal line on kickoffs.  Rating on a scale of 1-10, I give Jason Hanson a 10 (even though he missed once, I still give our all time leading scorer a rating of 10 at 40 years old).

P - Nick Harris

There is not much to say about Nick Harris, other than the fact that he has been there when we needed him for a long time now.  He has punted the ball 28 times so far this season, pinning 9 of them inside the 20.  He is averaging 41.1 yards per punt and has a long of 55 this season.  He is not the picture of perfection, but he is getting the job done.  Rating on a scale of 1-10, I give him a solid 8.

I will continue with my defensive ratings tomorrow.  Talk amongst yourselves....I gave you the topic......:o)