On Paper: Lions vs. Bears

If you want Kevin Smith to have a big day Sunday, click here: http://www.studyofsports.com/?p=2917

Lions Pass Offense (23rd) vs. Bears Pass Defense (12th)

Matthew Stafford not only got his first win last week, but had his first productive game of his NFL career.  Though there were some accuracy issues, Stafford managed the game without a turnover and ended up with a pretty impressive stat line: 21-36 for 241 yards, 1 TD 0 INT. 

This week he goes up against a stout Chicago Bears defense.  The Bears have forced nine sacks, and is ranked ninth overall.  Surprisingly, they have only forced four turnovers in three games (2 INTs, 2 fumbles).  The Lions, however, have turned the ball over six times.  Given the aggressive nature of Ron Turner’s defense, turnovers could be aplenty on Sunday.

But quarterbacks have been fairly successful against the Bears so far.  Here’s how each has done against the Bears so far:

Aaron Rodgers: 17-28, 184, 1 TD 0 INT

Ben Roethlesbuergeaareae: 23-35, 221, 1 TD 1 INT

Seneca Wallace: 26-44, 261, 1 TD 1 INT

It’s not all that surprising that Rodgers and Big Ben had decent days, but Wallace nearly led the Seahawks to victory after putting up a 127 yard performance the week before.  This clearly isn’t the same Chicago Bears defense that has existed in the past. 

Though Jeff Backus and Gosder Cherilus may struggle against pass rushers Adewale Ogunleye and Alex Brown, who each have two sacks, they may be able to counter with short, quick passes.  The Bears secondary, while not terrible, is probably the weak spot in the Bears defense.  Quarterbacks are completing 61.7% of their passes against Chicago (20th) but for an average of only 6.2 a catch (7th).  If the Lions are going to succeed, they will need to utilize the short pass and hope for some yards after the catch.  The Bears are a solid tackling team, so this will not be easy.  The Bears are starting rookie Al Afalava at safety.  I don’t really have anything to say about him, but that name is amazing. 

This matchup could really go either way.  Much is dependent on offensive coordinator Scott Linehan’s game plan.  The Bears are likely to get to Stafford early and often, but that has not led to turnovers too often this season.  If Linehan can counter the pressure with a series of screens and slants, and Stafford takes what the Bears give him, the Lions have a chance to be productive through the air.  My guess, however, is that the Bears will fluster Stafford into a couple of mistakes.  Those who thought Stafford has turned the corner and we’re done seeing his rookie mistakes are kidding themselves.  Bears +1.

Lions Run Offense (19th) vs. Bears Run Defense (13th)

Previous RBs against the Bears:

Ryan Grant: 16 carries 61 yards, 3.8 YPC, 1 TD

Parker/Mendenhall/Moore: 19 carries 99 yards, 5.2 YPC, 0 TD

Jones/James: 23 carries, 105 yards, 4.6 YPC, 0 TD

Front and center of the Bears run defense is DT, Pro Bowler Tommie Harris.  Harris has had a fairly quiet year so far, with only five tackles, but don’t let that fool you.  Harris is still as disruptive as ever. The good news for Lions fans is that their offensive line has gone up against Pro Bowl tackles the past two weeks (the Williams’ and Haynesworth), and they have still managed a successful running game (129 and 154 yards respectively).  Worth noting is Bears starting MLB, Hunter Hillenmeyer, is questionable to play and could be a big loss for Chicago. 

On the Lions side, Kevin “don’t call me Jones” Smith, too, is questionable.  This would be an even bigger loss for Detroit, as all other Detroit running backs are averaging 2.3 a carry.  In the end, Detroit appears to have the advantage here, but much is dependent on Smith’s status.  If Smith is in, Lions +2, if he’s out Bears +1. 

Bears Pass Offense (13th) vs. Lions Pass Defense (30th)

I feared this day ever since Jay Cutler was traded to Chicago.  At times I’ve tried to calm myself with the “Bears don’t have any wide receivers” argument, but rookie Johnny Knox had to ruin that.  Knox is a speedster who is already averaging 17.7 yards per catch and has two touchdowns.  He and Devin Hester will keep the Lions poor secondary busy all day.  The Lions will need to have their tackling at their best, as both receivers are prone to breaking lots of yards after the catch. 

After Cutler’s first game, which was filled with four interceptions, he’s calmed down.  The past two weeks he’s completed 73.8% of his passes for five touchdowns and one interception, averaging for a QB rating well over 100. 

Meanwhile, the Lions are in the bottom five in passing defense (30th), opposing completion percentage (31st) and passing touchdowns (32nd). 

The only way the Lions can win this matchup is with pressure.  They have five sacks while the Bears have given up six.  Chances are they will send pressure all day, which may leave Hester and Knox with a lot of open field.  This is an ugly matchup with no easy solution.  Lions will likely get burned if the Bears are pass-happy, Bears +3.

Bears Run Offense (28th) vs. Lions Run Defense (16th)

Fantasy owners have been up in arms about Matt Forte’s performance so far.  Projected to be a top three RB and a top five pick, Forte has not lived up to expectations.  He has 150 rushing yards this year for an average of 2.5 per carry(!!!) and no touchdowns.  Overall, the Bears are last in the league in yards per carry at 2.8.  Granted they’ve gone up against some tough defenses in Green Bay (@ Lambeau) and Pittsburgh, but that sort of production is unacceptable regardless of opposition. 

The Lions, meanwhile, have stepped it up in their run defense, which was ranked dead-last in 2008.  Much of this can be attributed to fantastic play from Larry Foote.  The Lions interior line is still shaky (and will be more so this week with Sammie Lee Hill likely out), but the linebackers have played phenomenally to keep the Lions in games.  They are likely to get Ernie Sims back this week, as well.  The Lions defense held Adrian Peterson and Clinton Portis to a collective 134 yards.  However, this stat is slightly misleading.  Teams have been lighting up the Lions through the air and haven’t devoted a lot to their running games.  The Lions are still giving up 4.5 per carry (24th).  Still, this is a big improvement from last year, and they are forcing teams to beat them with their passing game.  So don’t expect Forte to run all over the Lions like he did last time the two met (22 carries, 126 yards).  Lions +2

Special Teams

Though he’s been fairly quiet as of late, the Bears still have Hester.  He may not have a return touchdown since 2007, but that doesn’t mean he’s not capable of it.  Teams have tried to avoid kicking to him ever since his breakout season in 2006.  The Lions need to avoid him, as they are ranked 22nd in kick returns against. 

The Lions started off the year impressive with punt and kick returns, but have been pathetic since.  Take away Aaron Brown’s week one 87-yard return, and the Lions are averaging 18.9 yards per return, which would rank them 30th.  The Bears, however, are giving up the 6th most kick return yards per kick.    

Kickers Robbie Gould and Jason Hanson are a push, as the only field goal they’ve missed between them is a Gould miss from over 50 yards.  Hanson is yet to attempt one from 50 or longer. 

Though this is a close matchup, the Hester factor is still enough to make me soil myself every time he touches the ball.  Bears +1. 

Overall

This gives the Bears a +1 advantage if Kevin Smith is in and a +4 advantage if he’s out.  I really do think that’s accurate, as Smith has been huge for this offense in the past three weeks.  Detroit’s other running backs have yet to show anything at all and it’s hard for me to imagine any of them having a breakout day against the Bears defense.

Another big factor in this game is the Bears’ offensive game plan.  If they decide to pass often (as they should) it could mean trouble for Detroit, and will likely open their running game as well.  However, if they try to pound the rock, Detroit will keep it close and have a very good shot at stealing one.  Though I think this game will be closer than the 10 points Vegas is giving Detroit, I still think Chicago will come out on top.  If Kevin Smith plays, 24-21 Bears, if not 30-17 Bears. 

Late note:  Smith said Friday, “I'm going to play.”  Coach Jim Schwartz has yet to confirm this.