That's right, the "On Paper" goes IN FRONT!

Be a buddy and read this article and more like it at my site. It has pretty pictures.

For an explanation on my "On Paper" previews, check out my first preview of the year.

Detroit Pass offense (21st) vs. Rams Pass Defense (25th)

Let's start with the all-important injury report.  Matthew Stafford practiced both on Tuesday and Wednesday, so it is looking more and more like he will play.  For practical purposes, I will be assuming he's in.  Calvin Johnson, on the other hand, did not participate in practice either of those days, so I will be assuming he is out. 

UPDATE: Johnson practiced on Thursday, and his availability is much more likely now.

Here's how the Rams defense has performed against past opponents this year:

Hasselbeck      25/36, 279 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs, Rating: 96.9

Campbell         23/35, 242 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, Rating: 85.7

 A. Rodgers     13/23, 269 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, Rating: 126.9

S. Hill              14/24, 152 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, Rating: 104.9

Favre/Jackson  21/27, 288 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, Rating:  108.0

D. Garrard       30/43, 335 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, Rating: 73.3

P. Manning       23/34, 235 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, Rating: 116.7

Average:         21/32, 257 yards, 1.6 TDs, 0.7 INT Rating: 97.8

This is a big matchup that Detroit can exploit.  The Rams' secondary is mediocre at best.  The unit took an even bigger hit when their promising rookie cornerback, Bradley Fletcher, was lost for the season with a knee injury.  This unit has amassed just 28 passes defended, which is four less than any other team in the NFL who has played seven games. 

Stafford's return should be huge for Detroit.  After two weeks of suffering through Daunte Culpepper's return and fall from grace, fans have had enough.  Stafford's arm should help the Lions stretch the field and once again become a downfield threat.  The Rams are prone to giving up the big play through the air, as opponents are averaging 8.1 yards per catch, which is sixth worst in the league, and have given up 24 pass plays of 20 yards are longer (fourth worst).  This would be a great time for Calvin to return, who already has seven catches for 20+ yards, but it is looking like he'll be sidelined Sunday. 

The Lions should hold their own in terms of pass protection.  The Rams have accumulated just 12 sacks in seven games (22nd).  Second year end, Chris Long, has been a big disappointment this year (0 sacks), but should not be completely ignored.  On the other side, Leonard Little is quietly having a decent year.  Little has four sacks already and a pretty impressive pick six.

Detroit's line, who has given up the fourth most sacks this year, is struggling.  In the past two games, the Lions have been sacked twelve times.  However, with Stafford returning, that number should shrink.  Culpepper was doing an awful job at reading blitzes, and held onto the ball way too long at times.

Though they'll likely be without their downfield threat, the Lions clearly have the advantage here.  Stafford should get some time, and the receivers will likely get some open looks.  Lions +2

Detroit Run Offense (21st) vs. Rams Run Defense (27th)

Past Opponents:

J. Jones/E. James         30 for 147 (4.9) 1 TD

Portis                           19 for 79 (4.2)  0 TDs

Grant                           26 for 99 (3.8) 0 TDs

Coffee                         24 for 74 (3.1) 0 TDs

Peterson/Taylor           24 for 89 (3.7) 3 TDs

Jones-Drew                 33 for 133 (4.0) 3 TDs

Addai/Brown              22 for 122  (5.5) 1 TD

Average:                     25.4 carries for 106.1 yards (4.2) and 1.1 TDs*

*Averages include only the stats above.  Any rushes against the Rams from players not listed above are not included because they are likely irrelevant to the Rams defense (QB scrambles, end-arounds, etc.)

Though in terms of yardage the Rams run defense looks bad, their opposing yards per carry is actually pretty average at 4.3 (19th).  The reason it looks so bad is because opponents have attempted the fifth most rushes against them, likely because the Rams have been falling behind by so much. 

Last year, the Rams were giving up 4.9 yards per carry and had the 29th ranked rushing defense.  Their improvement this year is likely because of rookie linebacker James Laurinaitis, who leads the team in tackles (and interceptions).  Laurinaitis is clearly the leader of this struggling defense and will likely be all over the place on Sunday.

Kevin Smith looks to finally rebound this week, as he's stuck in a sophomore slump right now.  He's currently averaging 0.9 yards less per carry than last year (4.1 vs 3.2) and is currently ranked 25th in yards per game.  Though some of the blame can be put on Smith, the interior line's play has been poor.  It appears the Lions will be shuffling things around as veteran Jon Jansen may be taking over the LG spot from Daniel Loper.

This matchup could really go either way.  While the Rams have given up a ton a yards on the ground, much of that can be excused as teams were simply trying to run out the clock.  The Lions have been pretty lackluster in this facet of the game, but I don't expect the team to fully rely on it.  I highly doubt that this matchup changes the game, so it gets a Draw.

Rams Pass Offense (27th) vs. Lions Pass Defense (30th)

I believe Marc Bulger can officially now be labeled as a "Martz-Made" quarterback.  His only successful season without head coach Mike Martz was the year after he left.  Since then, he has not finished a season with more touchdowns than interceptions nor has he finished a season with a QB rating above 73.  This year, he ranks 25th in QB rating.  However, a lot of this years' struggles can be attributed to a lack of talent at the receiver position.  Quick, name the Rams' two top leading receivers.  If you answered Donnie Avery and Keenan Burton, you're either a Rams fan or have the worst fantasy football team of all time. 

Fortunately for the Rams, they face one of the worst pass defenses this week.  For the third week in a row, I must mention that Detroit still ranks last in opponent's QB rating, completion percentage, and NOW SECOND TO LAST in passing touchdowns allowed! Woohoo!

Anyways, the Rams have allowed a modest 16 sacks through seven games, which puts them seventh out of the 14 teams that have played seven games.  Detroit's game plan, once again, will be to pressure Bulger into making a mistake.  Unfortunately, Bulger has only turned the ball over four times (3 INTs, 1 fumble) in the six games he's played.

Regardless of his receivers, Bulger has the arm to punish the Lions.  Detroit is giving up the second most yards per catch and has given up some huge pass plays this year.  I don't ever see myself ever giving Detroit the advantage in this matchup this year, as this is likely the worst pass offense they'll see all year (I don't even consider Cleveland to have an offense) .  Rams +1.

Rams Run Offense (16th) vs. Lions Run Defense (20th)

Steven Jackson has been the one bright spot on the 0-7 Rams roster.  Even though his team has been falling behind, he's still managed a solid 90.7 yards per game (5th) and a respectable 4.4 yards per carry.  Surprisingly, however, Jackson, and any other Rams rusher, has yet to reach the endzone, making them one of two teams who have yet to score a rushing touchdown. 

The Lions, on the other hand, have an okay run defense.  Their numbers are a little inflated because they have had the tendency to give up one or two big plays per game and perform solidly the rest of the way.  It's easy to ignore those big plays and claim Detroit's defense good, but because this trend is continuing, it should not be overlooked.  The fact remains that the Lions are giving up 4.6 yards per carry, which if fifth worse, and have allowed eight rushes of 20 yards are more (3rd worse).  This is all done with the 7th least amount of rushing attempts against. 

I expect to see Jackson kept in check for a lot of the game.  However, I would not be surprised if he broke two or three long rushes on Sunday.  Though he only has three rushes of 20 or more so far this season (T-9th), I wouldn't be surprised to see him double that number on Sunday.  The factor that makes this matchup more even is that the Rams will be without their starting guard Richie Incognito, which will cause some shuffling of their line.  Still, I think Jackson has a lot of potential for this game.  Rams +1.5

Special Teams

Kick/Punt Returns

St. Louis is in the middle of the pack on both kick returns (19th) and punt returns (15th).  Meanwhile, the Lions are near the bottom on kick returns (27th) and closer to the top on punt returns (9th). 

In terms of special teams coverage, the Rams rank 23rd on kickoffs and 7th on punts.  The Lions rank 31st and 27th respectively. 

Clearly neither team has much of a special teams threat in the return game, but the Lions are especially inept in coverage.  The Rams may have a better than average day, but I don't expect to see anything big out of the return games on Sunday. Rams +0.5

Punters/Kickers

There's really not much to say in this matchup (there rarely is). Jason Hanson still looks solid and Josh Brown is shaking off some early misses and remains fairly reliable.  The one important thing to note is that the Rams will be without their long-snapper.  They signed his replacement, veteran long-snapper Ryan Neill on Tuesday.  Though he's had previous long-snapping experience, he hasn't played at all this year, so it's possible he could have some early struggles.  That's not enough for me to give out any advantage in this matchup.  Draw

Overall

Totaling up, that leaves the Rams with a +1 advantage.  I reserve the right to move this number up or down based on Stafford's and Johnson's availability.  If Stafford and Johnson play, I would give this overall matchup a draw or give the Lions a +1 advantage.  If neither play, consider it Rams +2.  

This is an interesting situation because the fan bases of two bottom-tier franchises are both absolutely convinced that their teams have the advantage on Sunday.  I guess I'm no different, because despite the final tally, I'm convinced the Lions will prevail this week.  On Sunday, I'll be watching two of the worst defenses in the league.  In my opinion, the Lions have the better, more-balanced offense (especially with Stafford/Johnson) to attack the Rams lowly defense.  I expect a high-scoring, shootout.  I know that sounds crazy with the Rams averaging 8.6 points per game (32nd), but we are talking about the Lions defense who is giving up 31.3 points per game (31st).  For the first time "On Paper", the Lions win 31-27.