On Paper: Lions vs. Seahawks

For an explanation on my “On Paper” previews, check out my first preview of the year.  And please read my stuff at my website, too.  I love you guys.

Lions Pass Offense (21st) vs. Seahawks Pass Defense (18th)

This week, I'm going to try something a little different in order to put some statistics in context.  Previously, I listed how other teams have fared against the Lions' upcoming opponent.  This week, I added how these other teams performed in comparison to their season averages.  The purpose of this is to understand the statistics a little better.  Letting Shaun Hill burn you for a quarterback rating of 86.1 may seem bad, but when you see that the 49ers are actually averaging an 83.2 ranking for the season, it's not as bad as it seems.  Anyways, lets start the show.    

Concluding from these stats, the Lions can expect a very average game, as Seattle seems to hold teams eerily close to their season averages.  Looking at the QB rating, however, Seattle has allowed four quarterbacks to reach the century mark.  Not surprisingly, the Seahawks rank 28th in opponents' QB rating. 

Last week, the Lions pass offense took a big hit.  Matthew Stafford completed a season-low 42% of his passes, while amassing just 168 yards through the air.  That's all fine, he's a rookie; we knew he'd struggle.  What's not okay is that the Lions played the Rams last week, who had the 25th ranked pass defense at the time. 

The Lions look to rebound this week, and may have their number one threat back.  Calvin Johnson has already practiced twice this week and seems quite likely to return to the field this week.  His return will be welcomed after the other receivers seemed to have suffered a bad case of swine flu last week.  Did I say swine flu?  I meant "Holy Crap, you're actually getting paid seven figures to catch passes for a living?" disease. 

In terms of protection, Seattle poses a pretty big threat.  They rank 7th in the league in sacks (18), and have veteran Patrick Kerney playing like a stud again.  Kerney currently has four sacks and is on pace for 12 for the season.  Surprisingly, this pressure has not amounted to a high number of interceptions, as the Seahawks have a league-worst three picks on the season.

Jeff Backus and company will have to rebound if they want to keep Stafford clean on Sunday.  Backus may have another new partner to his right, as the left guard position is once again unsettled.  Many, myself included, were convinced the spot had been locked up by newcomer Daniel Loper, but last week Loper lost his job to Jon Jansen, whose performance did not seem much better.  Loper is now a backup right tackle, and Jansen is now battling with Manny Ramirez for the starting job.  At this point, any change will likely be an improvement as the Lions have given up 24 sacks in 7 games (29th).

Like I stated before, I expect a pretty average day from Stafford and the Lions pass offense.  This will probably amount to around 200 yards, a touchdown and probably at least one turnover.  Because Calvin in back, the Lions get the slight advantage, Lions +1.

Lions Run Offense (20th) vs. Seahawks Run Defense (10th)

Wowsa.  Despite being only ranked 10th overall, the Seattle defense has held six of their seven opponents under their season averages.  Especially impressive is their performance against the Jaguars, in which they held Maurice Jones-Drew to 34 yards on 12 carries.

Obviously, the 49ers game sticks out as an outlier, with Seattle giving up 256 yards.  In this game, Frank Gore had two rushes for 79 and 80 yards.  Take away those two runs and San Francisco is, too, below their season average. 

Despite these impressive stats, Seattle is still giving up a very average 4.2 yards per carry (T-16th).  They certainly aren't unbeatable.

Detroit had a bit of resurgence in the run game last week against the Rams, totaling 128 yards on 33 carries.  Detroit may be without Kevin Smith, who hurt his shoulder last week.  However, this is unlikely to change the matchup much, as Maurice Morris stepped in his place last week and picked up an impressive 4.5 yards per carry (though Smith may be missed in the passing game).  He’ll have some extra motivation this week going against his former team.

Though Detroit is unlikely to have a breakout game on the ground, there's no reason to bury them.  Perhaps the biggest defensive threat to this lineup is rookie Aaron Curry, who ranks second in the team in tackles.  Every tackle he makes against the Lions will sting just a little more (as most fans wanted the Lions to draft him), but I still think the Lions to pick up a fair amount of yards.  Overall, I expect the Lions to get around 80 yards total on the ground, which won't be enough to give the offense the advantage.  Seahawks +1.

Seattle Pass Offense (17th) vs. Lions Pass Defense (27th)

*Seneca Wallace starts

Now we come to my least favorite part of every previews: the Lions pass defense.  Detroit's ranking is actually a little inflated after facing St. Louis and their horrible pass offense.  Despite holding Marc Bulger to a passer rating of 51.6, the Lions are still ranked last in opposing passer rating.

Anyways, looking at their past opponents, Seattle looks pretty inconsistent.  Matt Hasselbeck had a great performance against Jacksonville, but followed it up with an awful showing against Arizona.  Seattle has a respectable 85.8 team passer rating (Hasselbecks' is 87.0) which puts them right in the middle of the pack at 15th overall.

Seattle's receiving core is more than solid.  Not only do they have solid starters in Nate Burleson and T.J. "just copy and paste my last name" Houshmandzadeh, but their backups include rookie Deon Butler and Deion Branch.  Detroit counters with Will James and Phillip Buchanon.  Yikes.

Seattle has given up 18 sacks (12th most), while Detroit ranks 21st in sacks.  The Lions hope to get Jason Hunter back this week, who can provide some depth to a poor defensive line. 

It seems that Seattle thrives against poor pass defenses and struggles against good ones.  It's pretty clear which category the Lions fall under.  No chance the Lions ever get the advantage in this matchup: Seattle +2. 

Seattle Run Offense (29th) vs. Detroit Run Defense (21st)

Not surprisingly, the Seahawks only managed to beat the season averages in their two wins against the Rams and the Jaguars.  All of their other performances are quite horrible, including a 14-yard day against the Cardinals' 8th ranked run defense.  This week, Seattle dropped their dead weight by releasing aging running back Edgerrin James.  Julius Jones continues to be mediocre with his 3.9 yards per carry.

Meanwhile, the Lions almost squeaked out an adequate performance against Steven Jackson last week.  They did a pretty good job holding him in check until the fourth quarter, where Jackson picked up 80 of his 149 yards on the day.  Detroit's ranking is a little deceiving as they are giving up a ridiculous 4.8 yards per carry (30th).  However, Seattle doesn't pose a big enough threat to take the advantage in this matchup.  Lions +0.5.

Special Teams

I'm not going to waste a lot of e-ink on this.  Seattle doesn't pose a big return threat, as they rank in the bottom half of the league in both kick and punt returns.  Detroit follows suit.  Neither team is particularly good in return defense.  Interestingly, Seattle ranks last in opponents punt return average. 

Kickers, too, are a push.  Olindo Mare, though old, is still solid.  He's 10/12 this year to Jason Hanson's 9/10.  Hanson's probably the better kicker, but neither kicker is likely to make or break the game.

Because neither team has a threat, no one gets an advantage.  Push

Overall

Seattle comes out with a 1.5 advantage; a surprisingly close total for a game in which the Lions are ten point underdogs.  Seattle is truly a mysterious team, and maybe that's why such the high total.  Their two wins were quite impressive (28-0 and 41-0 blowouts) but the rest of their season has been ugly.  I expect Seattle to win, but I don't see the Lions getting shut nor blown out.  A lot of fans are pretty down on the Lions after their loss to the Rams, but the matchup this week is actually fairly favorable.  27-20 Seahawks.