How Jake Locker Staying in School Could Help the Lions

by Goodbye Ladies on Dec 14, 2009 9:24 PM EST Comment 22 comments

The latest NFL Draft news is that Jake Locker, who was a shoe-in as an early first-round pick, will be returning for his Senior year. My gut reaction is that this development helps the Lions.

Right now the Lions look like they are locked into the fourth overall pick of the NFL Draft. Although they could leap Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Cleveland Browns, or the St. Louis Rams if one of those teams wins or if the "strength of schedule" tiebreaker with the Browns moves in one direction or another, the likely result is that the first three picks are some order of the St. Louis Rams, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Cleveland Browns. Now, at least one of those teams will probably draft a quarterback. Every NFL Draft this decade except for 2000 has seen at least one quarterback go within at least one of those first three picks.

Of the probable top three teams, only St. Louis and Cleveland could take a quarterback because Tampa Bay took Josh Freeman with the 17th Overall pick last year. Thus, there's a good chance that one but only one of those teams could take a quarterback. In this scenario, the Detroit Lions could possibly be sitting at number four with either Bradford or Clausen, the only apparent marquee quarterbacks in this draft, on the board. There are a couple of teams within "striking distance" that could conceivably want to trade up to jump above Washington, which likely will take a quarterback if available (specifically, Buffalo, Oakland, and Seattle, who are all slated to pick in the top half of the draft). Washington might even want to swing a deal to move up one spot to prevent one of those teams from trading up to snag the remaining quarterback.

This scenario is much less likely if Locker had decided to enter the draft. With Clausen, Locker, and Bradford in play, the only way that the Lions are on the clock and only one of those quarterbacks is left is if both St. Louis and Cleveland draft a quarterback. That seems less likely. Only once this decade, in 2001, have two quarterbacks gone off the board in the first three picks (although, to be fair, it happened in both 1999 and 1998).

The one downside to Locker's return to school is that it decreases the chances that the Lions will have a legitimate shot at Nebraska Defensive Tackle Ndamukong Suh (one of those QB needy teams may have drafted Locker over Suh). However, at this point, the Lions drafting Suh is little more than a pipe dream. With a long-term solution at quarterback locked up and problems on defense, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are highly unlikey to pass up a chance at one of the best defensive line prospects in perhaps the decade. Thus, the only way that the Lions could draft Suh is if the Bucanneers beat at least one of Seattle, New Orleans, and Atlanta, and both Cleveland and St. Louis pass him up for quarterbacks. This is not a likely scenario.

Jake Locker's decision to go back for his senior year of college is undeniably reckless. As a near-certain high first-round pick in 2010, he risks millions by going back to school (everything from a disappointing season, a shoulder injury, or a freak shark attack could cause a drop in his draft status). However, if everything breaks just the right way, he may have given the Lions a prime trade-down opportunity.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Pride of Detroit's main writer, Sean, or the site in general. FanPosts are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable fans.

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isnt it nice

to have a web site so write down what your thinking about your favorite team. like your or my wife really cares, so ya can talk to people here who give a shit. i was thinking the same thing. i just didnt want to take the time to write it. so thanks! MAY THE SCHWARTZ BE WITH YOU!!!

by timmy20 on Dec 14, 2009 10:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

dont get your hopes up i dont see anyone wanting the num 4 pick

Just Remember matt... what would Daunte do??

by det32 on Dec 14, 2009 10:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

very good point....

I was thinking that this morning on my way to work. I see Washignton as the team that will wheel n’ deal. To get the guy they want.

Unlikely we can get Suh. But is McCoy a good consulation prize? I would rather trade down. Pick up an extra pick or two. And still grab someone in the top ten.

if the shoe fits...get another one just like it - George Carlin

by JCruize on Dec 14, 2009 10:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Only Problem is....

…..Washington necer has any picks….maybe next year they do though.

by BennieBladesFan on Dec 14, 2009 11:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Suh

The rams would be so stupid if they took Suh cuz it realistically wouldnt help them at all. The browns would only take Suh if they can trade Rogers and Tampa would take him. If the Lions really want him they could trade up but tht is unlikely. A first and ernie sims for Suh and a fourth is a small trade possibility.

by David7 on Dec 15, 2009 12:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm not expecting us to land Suh

So I’ll be looking at alternatives this offseason…

2009 = The start of the Lions Golden Age (We hope).
Zack Follett: he will hurt your mind.

by Hyperion Ecta on Dec 15, 2009 4:36 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

+1

Hyper’s right. The speculation is fun but Suh will be gone with the first pick.

I spray paint my dog Honolulu Blue and Silver

Pic - me vs. Bears fans

by NYCLionsfan on Dec 15, 2009 9:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The Rams are going to take a QB

I am damn near certain of it. I would not count the Browns out from taking Berry or Mays, but I think it is likely that they will not take Suh unless they can trade Big Baby. The team the Lions have to worry about, if they want Suh, is the Bucs…..no doubt about it. Tampa Bay will take Suh, without a doubt, if he is available and they have the chance. Therefore, if we are rooting for anyone to win one more game…..it has to be Tampa Bay if we want any chance of drafting Suh without trading up.

by KDawg on Dec 15, 2009 8:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Never heard of Jake Locker.

Must be a west coast thing.

by CLF on Dec 15, 2009 7:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

He is the QB in Washington

He is credited as the guy who turned their program around…..he is a stud “with all of the intangibles”. Nobody understands why he was so quick to say he was returning to Washington for his senior season though. He could have had 30-40 million easy, and instead he chooses the dorms and to see it out in Washington with a 5-7 team…..

by KDawg on Dec 15, 2009 8:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A few thoughts.....

I think the chance of Washington taking a QB is shrinking week by week. Campbell is playing much better, and it is becoming obvious that their offensive line is their real problem area, especially at Left Tackle.
Carolina might want to draft a QB but they have no first round pick this year.
Seattle may go QB but they still have Hasselbeck and two first rounders and are probably looking for a developmental guy with their second pick of the first or their second rounder.
Oakland may be a possibility, but they will choose only a couple spots behind Detroit and will likely know that the teams in front of them [Detroit, KC] will not pick a QB. Cleveland may worry them if they want a QB. Their QB situation is arguably the worst in the NFL. They may want to use the fourth pick to grab one of Clausen or Bradford.

Possibly the best scenario is a repeat of the 2004 draft when Cleveland swapped spots with Detroit because they were afraid that Detroit was going to draft Winslow TE at #6. We got their second round pick and Roy Williams at #7. One of Millen’s better moves. Too bad the second round pick was wasted on Teddy Lehman [I think].
In this years case, we would get Cleveland’s second [#35] and most likely have our choice between Gerald McCoy DT, Eric Berry S, and Russell Okung LT.
I have assumed Tampa takes Suh ahead of us and St. Louis takes a QB ahead of us.

I agree with your premise GL that the smaller the pool of elite QBs, the more likely some team will trade up. Unfortunately the pool of teams that might be willing and able to trade up will consist of Cleveland, Oakland, or Buffalo. In my opinion. If we somehow got ahead of St. Louis in the draft, they might move up as well, but I think both chances are doubtful.

by NorthLeft12 on Dec 15, 2009 7:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Just to clarify; Cleveland will trade with us to prevent us trading with Oakland or Buffalo.

Not that we would want to take a QB.
Personally, I do not see a high chance of this occurring. My hope is that Detroit picks Gerald McCoy at #3 or #4, adding a great defensive playmaker to the weakest part of our team. Derrick Morgan DE would help too, but I think he is a reach, a small one, at this point and will not impact our team as much as a DT like McCoy would.

by NorthLeft12 on Dec 15, 2009 10:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

imo

suh is headed to the bucs unless the bucs win two here on out.

st louis needs a qb, it looked like locker…now not so much. it could very well be clausen. regardless this reduces the first round qb pool and increases the likelihood of teams trading up once the first qb is off the board.

now, if we look at teams still potentially in the hunt for qb’s…we have carolina, seattle (a packer situation here where they plan ahead), browns, redskins (although not as much as two weeks ago), the bills, maybe the cardinals, maybe the bronco’s. either way once there is a threat of a run on only a handfull (three or four) quality qb’s the action starts. really what we need to hope for is the rams to take clausen or bradford/mccoy (who i think they will act on) which then causes pannick between the browns/bills/panthers. each can’t afford to be left out of the qb hunt and with all the picks close together its not like any one of them would be moving way up in the draft. this would allow us to step back to the 5-7 range and get some extra picks. the only way we don’t make this move as i see it is if for some gift from god suh is still available at 3 or 4.

by londonlion on Dec 15, 2009 11:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

in this event

i really like the berry pick more and more…sorry gang

by londonlion on Dec 15, 2009 11:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i meant to say the berry/okung pick

by londonlion on Dec 15, 2009 11:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

you mean okung/berry :-)

my order of pref…but could change after the combine.

Just give me 25 guys on the last year of their contracts; I'll win a pennant every year....Sparky Anderson

by footstock on Dec 15, 2009 1:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I meant Berry/Okung

Schwartz’s focus/attention/anger has been heavily on the defense this year. Many of us were surprised that the Lions slapped a few FA bandaids on the Offensive Line and didn’t address it in the 2009 Draft. Well, my hunch is get ready for more of the same in 2010. We could potentially take a LG with a pick as high as our 2nd Round pick, but my gut says Mayhew/Schwartz favor continuity on the rest of the OL, keep the Backus/Raiola core intact (along with Peterman/Cherilus), and pass on Okung, judging Berry to be of equal talent, but at a position of greater need.

Bottom line, what’s the LION’s order? My guess is Suh/Berry.

What? He can’t block a dead gopher? Humph, details.

by GRLion on Dec 16, 2009 1:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yes, but suh won't be available...unless bucs put some w's on the board

by londonlion on Dec 16, 2009 9:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not Seattle...Washington would though!

Seattle wanted Locker…and they might just wait until next season to make a move.

Washington is very likley to take a QB and the fact that 2 of Claussen, Bradford and McCoy will be on the board, is good for us.

http://cmufootball.blogspot.com/

by CapitolLions on Dec 15, 2009 12:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think the Rams want Clausen......

And he could very well be the #1 pick as such…..

Then I see the Browns with the #2 pick…..not looking at DT unless they can trade Rogers before the draft. I am thinking they are the ones who will be looking at either a DE or a Safety.

I see the Bucs with the 3rd pick…..taking Suh unless the Lions move ahead of them somehow (trade or by the Bucs winning).

That would leave the Lions at pick 4, with a choice between Okung or a DE/S depending on who Cleveland takes. My opinion remains that they should take Okung if they can not get Suh.

by KDawg on Dec 15, 2009 9:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

browns may pull spiller or ingram up the charts...if they don't jump on the qb bandwagon

def. not suh though…and their line seems ok…i think they go offense w/ first pick

locker was a lock for the rams…i agree they now go clausen…you might even see a bradford or mccoy reached for here too. either way, my hope is that it starts the qb run and other teams like panthers/bills/redskins (?)/Oakland (?) pannick & trade up.

by londonlion on Dec 16, 2009 9:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs