Why TRADING SUPERSTARS for DRAFT PICKS is a Bad Plan
by footstock on Dec 18, 2009 1:29 AM EST
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PrintNotice I didn't start this article with Calvin? We've talked that one to death...up and down the board. That said, the subject came up in another post about the Cutler trade and whether or not it was a good deal for the Bronco's. On the surface, it looks great...2 first rounders, swap a 5th for a 3rd, and a QB. But was it really a good deal for them?
It has been a disaster for Denver so far.
Cutler has much more upside than Orton...let's not debate it. It would be like saying we got Ryan Fitzpatrick for Stafford.
The bottom line is what did all of those wonderful, magical, draft picks produce for them so far. Here's the reality of why you don't trade marquee players for draft picks.
- They used the Bears 1st round pick for Robert Ayers – He hasn’t started a game yet, and was a healthy scratch a couple of weeks ago. Last I heard he was only playing on passing downs when he is active.
- They traded the 3rd that they got from Chicago and their other 3rd to the Steelers for the last pick in the second round…basically moved up 12 spots for—-drum roll please——Richard Quinn, TE from NC. He’s had NO catches this year, and is only playing on special teams. OH, and he was arrested in September on domestic violence and harassment charges.
- They only have one more 1st rounder in 2010 to get any value for Cutler (other than Orton), so they still have a chance to get something in return
So there’s 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th, 3-2 count, and they get ONE MORE SWING to get anything for Cutler.
That’s why trading marquee players for draft picks is bad business, and it’s why, other than getting such an obscene amount of picks that you can’t possibly screw it up, we shouldn't trade CJ for draft picks.
Please feel free to forward this to Mssr's Parker, Sharp, and the other media whores that want us to be doomed to fail forever!
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Pride of Detroit or its writers. FanPosts are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable fans.
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The Bronco's record says otherwise.
The picks helped them shore up their defense which has played pretty well overall this year. They should make the playoffs.
Just livin' the dream...
those pick(s)....
have nothing to do with what the Broncos record is.
if the shoe fits...get another one just like it - George Carlin
True
But all I hear is how happy the Broncos are with Kyle Orton and how efficient he has been as the QB in Denver.
all that trade tells me is any qb will be good bhind that line
Just Remember matt... what would Daunte do??
This is goof balls
For the record, I don’t support trading CJ and I hadn’t even considered such a stupid idea as trading him until I opened up POD today and saw that people are talking about. But I most say that your logic is terribly flawed. You are sighting lasts years trade of Cutler to the Bears for draft picks as why you don’t trade a superstar for Draft picks. Well, we are less than a year removed from that deal and I have no idea what Denver thinks of Ayers because I honestly don’t care about Denver, but I doubt he is being written off long term already. Even if he is, you are forgetting that Denver still has the Bears first round pick for this year and after the Bears finish 5-11 this year it should be a pretty good pick. What they do with it will have to be factored into any evalutation of that trade. My final thought is that you have clearly forgotten perhaps the biggest trade in NFL history. The Cowboys sending Herschell Walker to the Vikings for draft picks essentially turned a 1-15 franchise into a 3 time Super Bowl champion in less than 10 years. Now, we could go back and forth looking at examples of when this has worked and when it has failed but I think you need to realize that using the Cutler trade as an example of why you don’t trade superstars for draft picks is extremely flawed.
I can't believe I ate the whole thing!
by tigerfaninChicago on Dec 18, 2009 8:56 AM EST reply actions
What if the shoe was on our foot?
Let’s say we had traded Calvin (instead of Cutler) for those 2 1st’s, and swapped a 5th for a 3rd. And we got Ayers and Quinn out of the deal so far.
Trade-to-date, I think it’s safe to assume that this board would be flipping out right? The popular opinion on this board is that a 1st rounder should be able to step in and start right away and make a nice contribution. If that is the benchmark, then we would have to say that the trade so far has been really bad (productivity wise) for the Broncos.
Those guys might get better and make contributions in the future, but the early return on investment, by our standards, is poor. Yep, they still have 1 more draft pick to try to make it right, but so far they have rolled craps!
RE: the Herschel trade, I DID say that the only way you would do it is to get such an obscene amount of draft picks that you couldn’t screw it up. And the herschel trade was nearly 20 years ago, and I haven’t seen it duplicated yet…why would we think it’s going to happen again soon?
Just give me 25 guys on the last year of their contracts; I'll win a pennant every year....Sparky Anderson
So much to say
It’s actually very easy to look at this as if the shoe were on the other foot because we made a similiar deal last year with Roy Williams. Now, Roy is a superstar in his mind but nobody misses him here (of course, no one in Denver misses Cutler’s 22 interceptions) but we got a 1st and 3rd rounder back for him. We used the first rounder on Pettigrew who gave us 30 catches for 300+ yards, 2 TDs and is on IR. Derrick Williams was the guy we took with our second 3rd round pick and he has 5 catches. So was that trade a failure? Pettigrew has slightly underperformed based on where we took him and the greater concern for me is seeing how he returns from the injury. I hated the Williams pick at the time and it’s clearly been a bust so far. So, do we quit on these guy and say the trade was a failure?
Of course, there is no reason to argue because we both agree the team would need to be blown away to trade CJ (I would expect 2 first round picks as a starting point in any conversation) and I don’t see that happening.
I can't believe I ate the whole thing!
by tigerfaninChicago on Dec 18, 2009 10:10 AM EST up reply actions
A better way to say that
is that my point is that we aren’t talking about our picks as busts because we still believe they can contribute long term. I know that’s true with Pettigrew (maybe not so much with Williams). The unique part of trading CJ is the fact that like Cutler we would be trading high on him. You could argue that the Vikings trading Randy Moss to Oakland was a great example of trading a superstar and getting nothing in return but I don’t believe the Vikings traded high on him. I would expect to get more for CJ than the Vikings got for Randy Moss but, again, I don’t expect that to happen anyway.
I can't believe I ate the whole thing!
by tigerfaninChicago on Dec 18, 2009 10:15 AM EST up reply actions
I think it's a smidge different
We were not planning on signing Roy this year anyway, so getting anything for him was a win. We can let Grew develop and realize that we got something for nothing. The Vikes were not planning on signing Moss, so they got some value.
Trading expiring contracts (when you do not plan on re-signing) for picks is great business if you can do it.
Just give me 25 guys on the last year of their contracts; I'll win a pennant every year....Sparky Anderson
I bundle the Roy Williams deal along with the Kitna deal......
In my mind, that was a pretty damn successful transaction on our part.
yep, i agree
kitna was going to be released in 2 weeks, and we got Jones to give us Henry. Something is better than nothing I always say.
Unless it’s something bad, of course. :-)
Just give me 25 guys on the last year of their contracts; I'll win a pennant every year....Sparky Anderson
There was another scenario that was CLOSE to the Herschel Walker deal......
Remember when Ditka traded all of the Saints picks for Ricky Williams? Yeah…..that’s the stuff.
Its only been one season.....
…….Man your tough on guys that havent even played a full season yet…..geez…..How many rookies have awesome rookie season….Not very many…..Its totally unfair to think a rookie can have a huge year…..Give me a break.
by BennieBladesFan on Dec 18, 2009 9:18 AM EST reply actions
What is a Superstar too?
Im just curious id say Mega is a great player and on his way to becoming a superstar……But he isnt there yet is he?…..hes had one big year….I love the guy but to say he is a superstar is a bit premature…..hes only in hs 3rd season and had one big year…..he may someday but I wouldnt call him Jerry Rice Chris Carter or Randy Moss yet man…..Hope he can be but not a superstar yet.
by BennieBladesFan on Dec 18, 2009 9:34 AM EST reply actions
Superstars
Are the guys like Brady, TO, Favre etc…..the guys that are great AND get all of the media attention. I agree with you here Bennie…..Calvin Johnson is a great player, but he is not a “Superstar” yet. If Detroit becomes successful soon, I think both Stafford and CJ have “Superstar” potential.
Herschel Walker trade worked out for the Cowboys
Though I am against trading CJ.
BUT, if we had not drafted Stafford last year and went defense/o-line; I would very much consider shipping out CJ. Staff needs an elite WR, we have taken this path offensively and the front office needs to abide by it. You cannot draft a QB #1 overall then ship out a top 5 talent at the WR position.
Man invented language to satisfy his deep need to complain. Lily Tomlin
I would do it......
But ONLY if the offer was ridiculous and irrefutable…..like the Herschel Walker offer was for the Cowboys.
I wouldnt trade him
b/c we would just end up having to draft another WR to replace him. Why draft another WR when you already have a proven one. Even though you might be getting a few picks for him, you would still have to use a pick on a WR
by LionsPistonsFan on Dec 18, 2009 11:08 AM EST reply actions
Don't trade a proven commodity..............
that’s my opinion on the whole “Should we trade CJ for……………………………….” Why on earth would you trade him?? Shit – Cutler was supposedly a proven commodity but he has played horribly. You know what you got in CJ – a true professional that is a gifted WR and the most talented guy on our team. Proven/Fact/No doubt/etc.
I spray paint my dog Honolulu Blue and Silver
Pic - me vs. Bears fans
I would trade him becasue hes a WR....
…..Myself personally dont put much importance on that poistion to a football team as a whole….I think youve seen my previous posts on other threads where I believe Oline and Dline are the most important position on a football team.
by BennieBladesFan on Dec 18, 2009 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
Football isnt the same game it was
BBF, you need game breakers. Do I think O-Line and D-line are important? Very much so, they are the foundation of your team. But look how hard it is to find quality WR’s, unless the incoming players are of exeptional quality I would not trade a top 5 talent at a premiere position. The NFL is a passing game now, and if you have one of the best at one of the most critical positions you dont give it away for a couple picks.
Man invented language to satisfy his deep need to complain. Lily Tomlin
by Leapin Lion on Dec 18, 2009 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
LL is right
The Game has changed. Old School cliches belong in the 1950’s. I love that quote:
The NFL is a passing game now, and if you have one of the best at one of the most critical positions you dont give it away for a couple picks.
What? He can’t block a dead gopher? Humph, details.
GREAT players are almost impossible to find; I want to keep the ones we have
And Schwartz is keeping them. Nothing to see here, move along.
What? He can’t block a dead gopher? Humph, details.
Bennie we have always agreed on that point
I want to build the team from the inside out just like you. Total agreement. I just want us to try to accomplish that goal without getting rid of the one proven talent we have. He’s not a prima donna, works hard and is a freak of nature on the field. These guys (coaches, GM;s, etc.) make a lot of money. Let them do their job effectively without selling out CJ. We just need to remain patient (as we get creamed by 45 points to the Ravens)
I spray paint my dog Honolulu Blue and Silver
Pic - me vs. Bears fans
by NYCLionsfan on Dec 18, 2009 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
Oh I know....
…..ive said in other posts that id love to keep him mega…..Unless we get that one offer like Dallas got for Walker…..Just cant turn that down.
by BennieBladesFan on Dec 18, 2009 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
Even I may be a believer if we get a Hershcel Walker-type deal
I don’t think anyone would ever do that again though – it put Minnesota in the hole for years and Chicago did it this year and it hasn’t really turned out that well. It’s a copycat league so I don’t expect anything like that (unless Al Davis goes off his rocker and does something stupid which is always a possibility)
I spray paint my dog Honolulu Blue and Silver
Pic - me vs. Bears fans
You never know.....
Some idiot GM might think that CJ is the key difference between their team being .500 and going to the Super Bowl…..it could happen. Not to mention sometimes guys like Ditka are so high on one player that they will sell the farm to get him (Ricky Williams).
Disagree on the Cutler observation
Yeah his play has been horrible. But he has a new coordinator, and no offensive weapons. Forte is always hurt, and if your TE is your main target your going to have a rough go. And that defense has regressed, age is catching up to them. The Bears should have snatched Marshall or B. Edwards when they were up for grabs.
Have a feeling that we havent seen the last of Cutler, wouldnt be suprised to see him rebound for that team next year.
Man invented language to satisfy his deep need to complain. Lily Tomlin
by Leapin Lion on Dec 18, 2009 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
Agreed
The Bears are in a tough spot though. They gave up a lot to get Cutler and now are out of good draft picks. They need to turn this around organically. Until that happens I see Cutler struggling, in my humble opinion.
PS – he will bounce back in week 17 of course.
I spray paint my dog Honolulu Blue and Silver
Pic - me vs. Bears fans
by NYCLionsfan on Dec 18, 2009 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
Of course he will
Lions make everyone look good…
2009 = The start of the Lions Golden Age (We hope).
Zack Follett: he will hurt your mind.
by Hyperion Ecta on Dec 18, 2009 6:45 PM EST up reply actions
i think it was a good deal for the Bears
They got their franchise QB. My point was that the picks that Denver received so far have produced NO starts and very limited production. I am sure that the Bears are and will be more happy with Cutler than if they had kept Orton and got Ayers and Quinn in the draft.
Just give me 25 guys on the last year of their contracts; I'll win a pennant every year....Sparky Anderson
We're spinning our wheels again
I’m once again put in the role of reminding us all that the main opinions that matter here are those of Mayhew and Schwartz. It’s nice (sometimes) to speculate, but many of the things discussed here wil never, never, never, never, never happen. It’s time to update my 2009-2010 Mortal Locks.
1. The Lions will not draft Gerald McCoy.
2. The Lions will not sign Reggie Bush or Willie Parker.
3. The Lions will not trade Matt Stafford.
4. The Lions will not trade Calvin Johnson.
What? He can’t block a dead gopher? Humph, details.
3 and 4 seem strong
1 and 2 are a bit more unbreakable to me…especially one. I wouldn’t put it beyond us to pick McCoy.
2009 = The start of the Lions Golden Age (We hope).
Zack Follett: he will hurt your mind.
by Hyperion Ecta on Dec 19, 2009 8:12 PM EST up reply actions
I would......we won't draft McCoy, he's overrated, and more importantly he doesn't fit......write it down
What? He can’t block a dead gopher? Humph, details.
Footstock... I agree with your logic.
I know you’ve taken a little bit of a beating on this post, but I believe this is a good representation of the trade value. In the end, it is about what you get for the player you traded. With the Roy William’s trade, we will have to see if what we got in the trade are better than what we gave up. The jury is still out on this one, but you are correct in how to assess the value.
As for my take on the “trade Johnson” debacle…. Killer Kowalski had the best analogy that I’ve read (I know many here don’t like him, but I’m simply agreeing with him on this analogy). He said trading Johnson was like winning the lottery and then spending all of your winnings on more lottery tickets. I think this is so true. You try and try to get a home run in the draft, then once you do, you want to trade him away for an unknown commodity? That’s fundamentally flawed to me. Sure, maybe you hit the lottery once again, but then maybe again… you don’t. Maybe you find a bunch of average Joes and a couple of busts that ultimately don’t help this team get any better. Maybe you find three superstars for one… who knows? But my point is simply that you don’t trade a known commodity for an uncertain one. That’s my take anyway…..
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