Lions Move Up in Draft Order to No. 2 Pick
by Sean Yuille on Dec 22, 2009 12:50 PM EST
in NFL Draft
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PrintIf the season ended today, the Lions would have the No. 2 pick in the draft thanks to the Browns and Buccaneers winning their games this past Sunday. The win by the Browns gave them 3 for the season, and the Buccaneers' upset victory over Seattle gave them 2 for 2009. That means that the Lions and Buccaneers are the only 2-12 teams, and only the Rams have a worse record. St. Louis looked like they might pull off an upset of their own against Houston to improve to 2-12 as well, but they ended up losing and are still 1-13.
The reason the Lions would have the No. 2 pick if the season ended today is because they hold the tiebreaker -- strength of schedule -- over the Buccaneers. There has been some confusion on here over what that means, but let me explain. The team with the easier schedule (i.e. lower winning percentage among its opponents) gets the higher pick in the first round of the draft if there is a tie. Right now Detroit's schedule is easier than Tampa Bay's, so according to the tiebreaker, Detroit would get the second pick. Below is a look at what the top five picks of the draft would be if the season ended today.
| # | Team | Record | Opponents Record | Opponents Winning % |
| 1 | St. Louis Rams | 1-13 | 119-105 | .531 |
| 2 | Detroit Lions | 2-12 | 115-109 | .513 |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2-12 | 125-99 | .558 |
| 4 | Cleveland Browns | 3-11 | 114-110 | .509 |
| 5 | Kansas City Chiefs | 3-11 | 118-106 | .527 |
Had Cleveland lost to Kansas City, the Browns would be ahead of the Lions in the draft order based on a difference of only one game in the tiebreaker. That's how close this can be. If St. Louis had won, the Lions would be at the top of the draft board because their schedule is easier by four games. The difference is much greater with Tampa Bay, though. Compared to Detroit's schedule, Tampa Bay's is tougher by ten games.
The thing that is so interesting about the possibility of the strength of schedule tiebreaker coming into play is that St. Louis, Detroit, and Tampa Bay have a lot of the same teams on their schedules. That is especially true for the Rams and Lions, which play each others' divisions. This means that if St. Louis were to win another game and the Lions were to lose out, the No. 1 pick in the draft very well could be determined by the outcome of a game that neither team is even involved in. (By the way, if two teams finish with the same record and same strength of schedule, the deciding tiebreaker would be a coin flip.)
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its a tough spot to be a Lion's fan rigth now.
I am sure we all want the Lions to win….But…. Damn Suh would look awesome in Blue and Silver next season.
if the shoe fits...get another one just like it - George Carlin
Good summary Sean. The remaining two games for the teams in the race for Suh are:
Detroit: San Fran [6-8] and Chicago [5-9]
Tampa Bay: New Orleans [13-1] and Atlanta [7-7]
St. Louis: Arizona [9-5] and San Fran [5-9]
Cleveland: Oakland [5-9] and Jax [7-7]
KC: Cinci [9-5] and Denver [8-6]
I would say that Detroit has virtually no chance of being passed in the strength of schedule. If St. Louis wins one of their last two, we could end up with the number one pick again. That is not something I am hoping for.
The single most likely win from that board, I think, is Detroit over Chicago
I don’t want the #1 pick either. I’d marginally rather have the #1 than #2 since we know we could get Suh, but we’ll have a lot of options at #5 that aren’t quite as bad for our salary cap situation.
I would rather pay Suh a #1-overall contract than give a #2-overall contract to Okung or Berry, but if we end up at #5 or so, I’ll be okay with that. It’s a more tradeable spot for whoever wants next year’s Mark Sanchez.
I think that St. Louis at home against San Fran is a very close second.
Not sure why you are not including Gerald McCoy in any of your scenarios for who the Lions end up with. We will see after the combine and work outs, but I think he will be in the top five of any team who values a DT.
I would include McCoy too
I was just giving examples. I’d be fine if the Lions took him if Suh is gone
Sorry, screwed up here. I was thinking that the teams left to be played had not had their records included in the total.
It has been. I would be surprised if there are big shifts, week to week, in the opponents won loss record as they play a lot of the same teams. Especially Cleveland, Detroit, and the Rams. Tampa and KC seem to have the most different schedules.
Gasp!
If the Lions win one of their remaining games, we could fall all the way to 5th conceivably…
Then I think we’d look at taking Berry, or Morgan. Suh definitely gone by then…sigh.
Just livin' the dream...
Probably rigth
but I would take a Win any day of the week rather than jockeying for draft position. As Schwartzy says its all about winning in the NFL and he’s right. A Win against Chicago would do more for the team than knowing it would be able to draft Suh – in my most humblest of opinions.
I spray paint my dog Honolulu Blue and Silver
Pic - me vs. Bears fans
yeah it's strange that wanting to win has somehow become blasphemy
i would really love to beat the Chicago Cutlers and send that entire city into a long miserable offseason
+1000
2009 = The start of the Lions Golden Age (We hope).
Zack Follett: he will hurt your mind.
by Hyperion Ecta on Dec 22, 2009 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think so. My point was that we win the tie breakers as our schedule is easier than anyone else.
Right now we are ahead of everyone else in having the weakest SOS. We play two teams with losing records, which no one else does. We should win the tie break unless something freaky happens. Yes, it is possible but it is extremely unlikely.
If the Lions win one of the last two, I think the worst we can do is third. Two wins will put us to sixth if the Redskins lose out.
The SOS Swings Quickly
If opponents in your own division win and, for example, teams in Tampa’s division all lose, that is a 12 game swing in SOS. The reason is that the division opponents count twice in the SOS since you play them twice.
Last week, Bears, Packers, and Vikings all lost reducing our SOS by 6 wins. and Tampa had 2 out of three in their division win—-increasing their wins by 4. That was a 10 game swing in SOS in one week.
In fact, that’s our 10 win differential in the tie breaker right there.
Just give me 25 guys on the last year of their contracts; I'll win a pennant every year....Sparky Anderson
Just curious..
if we sign a player at the #2 spot..what would our cap space look like for signing other FAs?
by LionsPistonsFan on Dec 22, 2009 2:59 PM EST reply actions
We're also heading into an uncapped year, meaning there is no salary cap at all
What happens when a new CBA happens, though, I have no idea. Nobody does, probably.
Did
2009 = The start of the Lions Golden Age (We hope).
Zack Follett: he will hurt your mind.
by Hyperion Ecta on Dec 22, 2009 5:43 PM EST up reply actions
ha ha ha
i need the lions to lose to get Suh with the second pick. Im in the championship game in my fantasy leage with the 49ers defense. how bitter sweet.
I don't want the first pick again
Sure, we’d be able to get Suh, but the money would be horrific. Personally, I’d rather be 2 or worse, that means we’d win our last games, which I’d rather.
2009 = The start of the Lions Golden Age (We hope).
Zack Follett: he will hurt your mind.
As long as the Rams do not win another game.....
They are a lock for the #1 pick…..the rest only matters who will pick 2-5.
I keep hoping for wins in Detroit, but I am expecting losses at this point.....
Unless Stafford starts, I think we will see more of the same that we have watched for the last 2 weeks. Stanton came in and looked 10000 times better than Culpepper….so at least there is that. Mo Morris shocked the shit out of me too…..that 64 yard run was a thing of beauty.
The difference in the cap between #1-5 is negligible
Staff is getting $12 mil on avg, and Sanchez is getting $11.5. The real difference is guaranteed money—-Staff $41 mil and Sanchez $28 mil.
Just give me 25 guys on the last year of their contracts; I'll win a pennant every year....Sparky Anderson
If St. Louis gets the #1 pick
Would they take Suh or would they take a quarterback or would they try and trade out? A lot could still happen if the Lions end up at #2. Never know, still might get Suh.
"A child of five would understand this. Send someone to fetch a child of five." ~Groucho Marx
I think...
chances are high that they take a QB. they have a solid D-line, plus they really like Claussen
The beginning of the end of the misery
by Latif Masud on Dec 22, 2009 10:21 PM EST up reply actions
Who? Who? I give you Mel "Mothers put your daughters to bed" Kiper...thats who.
if the shoe fits...get another one just like it - George Carlin
He is such a shady dude...
2009 = The start of the Lions Golden Age (We hope).
Zack Follett: he will hurt your mind.
by Hyperion Ecta on Dec 23, 2009 2:13 AM EST up reply actions
looks like a 1970's cheesy porn actor
a’la Brad Childress
I spray paint my dog Honolulu Blue and Silver
Pic - me vs. Bears fans
by NYCLionsfan on Dec 23, 2009 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
His hair secret is vinager and water
Thats the pic he puts on the box for the douche he sells…
“Ladies, does your vajayjay stink like my draft analysis?”
Minus the 70's porn mustache!
Just give me 25 guys on the last year of their contracts; I'll win a pennant every year....Sparky Anderson
Who likes Clausen?
A hell of a lot of mock drafts, that’s who. He’s currently #2 in average draft position.
http://draftdebacled.com/DraftProspects.aspx
http://draftdebacled.com/Prospect.aspx?id=465
Although, as I like to say, the only opinion that matters is that of the Rams. For reasons previously explained, my hunch is that by Draft Day 2010, the Rams will like Clausen too.
What? He can’t block a dead gopher? Humph, details.
mmmmmm...
mmmmmm.. Porn and Football. The fuel of life!! Without those two things, there would be no internet!!
Sad to think that most Lions fans
will be rooting for them to lose out.. Myself possibly included. :(
Numerically Blazers Edge is #25
by Outlaw is Rejector on Dec 25, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions
Most definitely not at POD
Heck, I only mentioned that they got the #2 pick in an update fashion and 90% jumped on me and told me they would prefer to win out and pick 6th.
I would too. Let the draft chips fall where they may!
Just give me 25 guys on the last year of their contracts; I'll win a pennant every year....Sparky Anderson
I'm with ya
2009 = The start of the Lions Golden Age (We hope).
Zack Follett: he will hurt your mind.
by Hyperion Ecta on Dec 25, 2009 9:28 PM EST up reply actions
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