Interesting Stats

by DrewsLions on Feb 16, 2009 1:23 PM EST Comment 10 comments

Mike O'Hara had some interesting stats on his blog site that should help ease the minds of those who are overly concerned that the Lions will take a quarterback with the first overall pick. He had this to share:

5. SUPER QB HISTORY: The 1983 draft was the best in history for quarterbacks. Six were first—round picks, and three are in the Hall of Fame – John Elway, Jim Kelly and Dan Marino.
Buffalo had the 12th and 14th picks that year. The Lions were in the middle at No. 13.
With No. 12, the Bills took tight end Tony Hunter of Notre Dame. That left Kelly for the Lions – but they drafted James Jones, a skilled fullback from Florida.
Doesn’t every NFL team build around a fullback? No?
With Kelly still on the board, the Bills took him with the next pick.
The Bills went to four straight Super Bowls, and Kelly’s in the Hall of Fame.
Near the bottom of the first round, the Dolphins drafted Marino.
To me, passing on a quarterback—Kelly or Marino—was the single worst draft mistake the Lions have made in the last 30 years. And that’s saying something.

6. MORE QB STATS: Drafting a quarterback high is a risk because the potential for failures sets a franchise back further than at any other position.
But the rewards of success are higher. In the last 17 years, 11 winners have had a quarterback drafted on the first round. Seven times, it was the first pick overall – Dallas and Troy Aikman (three times), Denver and John Elway (twice), Indianapolis (Peyton Manning) and the Giants (Eli Manning).
Not all 11 were drafted originally by the team that won the Super Bowl. And the 1994 49ers had Steve Young, who began his pro career in the USFL and was the first pick in the supplemental draft.
In this year’s playoffs, all six AFC teams had a quarterback drafted on the first round.

Of course, this doesn't mean Stafford or Sanchez with be successful. What I get out of this is that you obviously have a better shot at hitting a home run by using a higher pick. Then again, there's more risk as well.

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As I’ve said in defense of my championing of Josh Freeman—the Lions taking a QB in the first round is likely—extremely likely. The question becomes, will it be with the first or twentieth pick? I think a lot depends on the Combine and Pro Day showings of the QBs in question . . .

Peace
Ty

http://thelionsinwinter.blogspot.com

by ty@thelionsinwinter on Feb 16, 2009 1:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Drew I love your persistence

by wumanchu01 on Feb 16, 2009 3:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thanks...

I’m just trying to soften the blow of the inevitable!

by DrewsLions on Feb 16, 2009 9:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's getting Absurd

Really, when it comes down to it, you have to judge a player by how they perform. Looking at previous drafts and the like to determine how this draft will go is pretty silly since those players back then were completely different people, with different mentalities, different skills & different talents. Just looking at QB selection history won’t tell you how good Stafford or Sanchez is. The only way you can do that is by studying their college stats and seeing them play, that’s how we find out if he’s gonna bust or not.

Now, it’s not only you DrewsLions that have brought up this stuff but other’s, on both sides and it’s not an attack or anything like that. I just think our energies should be focused on looking at our current prospects via form and potential, not by looking at meaningless stats and trends (yes, trends do tell you sometimes how things will go but not always).

by Hyperion Ecta on Feb 16, 2009 5:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I agree, but...

don’t shoot the messenger. I just thought he made some interesting points. You don’t think the Lions are going to do their due diligence on player scouting? I hardly think that Mayhew is going to read O’Hara’s blog and make up his mind based on stats.

I just commented the other day that you can’t blindly answer detractors via stats. I am not retorting anything here. Just giving you guys some food for thought. Nothing more. Hidden agenda… maybe :)

(Kidding on the agenda thing… I don’t care who they draft. Just draft the right guy!)

by DrewsLions on Feb 16, 2009 10:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

All Cool

Wasn’t trying to shoot the messenger, just venting feelings about the use of trends to predict draft picks. Personally, I’m a big stat fan and love their part in the game but using other’s stats from past years seems pretty useless.

Also, I hope the Lions are doing their scouting with quite a few prospects in mind, not just who should be 1st because of position. I hate that people say Curry shouldn’t be chosen since he’s a LB, what bollocks.

And, as always Drew, love your posts! (even if this was just some food for thought).

by Hyperion Ecta on Feb 16, 2009 11:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Completely Useless Statistics

Those stats don’t say anything about the rest of the teams those quarterbacks were on, such as the O-Lines and the defenses. That is like saying that all winning Super Bowl teams should have a right footed kicker, because most teams that have won have had a right footed kicker. In fact, on most of those teams, the QB’s were the last piece of the puzzle, not the first. We need to get a solid team in the trenches first, then maybe get a QB next year that will easily compare to Stafford or Sanchez. Come on guys, Brady, Manning, and Elway have all admitted the O-Line matters a ton, and prove it every year when they buy them atv’s, watches and the like. And before you bring up this years mediocre Steelers line, please look at the defense and running game (better run blocking than pass protection). Drafting a QB at #1 this year will ruin another career and set the Lions complete rebuilding back another year. Not to mention the cap ramifications, a Lineman or Defense will be 10 – 20 million dollars cheaper. REBUILD DAMNIT!

by damnitdamnitdamnit on Feb 16, 2009 7:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Trends are useful

I enjoy looking at trends to predict future moves. However, trends have to be treated as just one of the many points of data.
Additionally, it is important to note that the Lions are in uncharted waters, being one of the worst, if not THE worst team in history. Taking on such a high risk doesn’t seem like a luxury the Lions can afford.
But for those of you who want a qb…
its not like we can get any worse, right?

www.NFLdraftblogger.com

by MichiganD on Feb 16, 2009 8:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

playing devil's advocate here

but maybe this year actually IS the time to take a chance. like you said, it can’t get any worse right? having 2 first round picks and 8 on the first day gives them some flexibility. the lions DO need a qb. and it would be nice to FINALLY have a franchise qb. maybe take a chance on stafford and play it safe with the rest of the draft.

i’ve been advocating just taking the best player available all along. this just crossed my mind and i thought i’d throw it out there.

by wumanchu01 on Feb 17, 2009 12:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Glaring Omission

Why didn’t O’Hara mention that Jim Kelly went to the USFL first, after Buffalo drafted him? Completely skewers his stat by another stat, 33.33%. A couple of years in semi-pro could be invaluable. Doesn’t happen these days. I’ve said it before, resign Dan-O, Dump Dante and Kitna, let Stanton fight for the job on an even field. With the Lions re-signing Peterman, a good, but not great guard, and Gozzie on the right, Draft the Smith kid from Baylor #1, or Aaron Curry, and look for Freeman or the Ball St. kid, Robertson at #20, and let then all slug it out. The NFL is based on player competition.

by dylan415 on Feb 16, 2009 11:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs