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Around SBN: NFL Roundtable: Which Draft Pick Is Most Likely To Bust?

When The Going Gets Tough…

Martin Mayhew and Jim Schwartz are now reaping the fruits of Matt Millen's failure as general manager of the Lions.  Millen created the perfect storm of ineptitude by piling on eight years worth of bad decisions which finally culminated in last year's disastrous 0-16 season.  Now Mayhew and Schwartz are trying to rebuild amidst the aftermath.  It's a wasteland as far as the eye can see.  The tattered remnants of what was once an average roster now litters the halls of Allen Park.  The stench permeates the league and no one in their right mind wants to wallow through muck to search for survivors.  How do you rebuild amongst such devastation and failure?  Well, management is finding out firsthand that it is no easy task.

As we watched the action from afar over the first few days of free agency, we have all come to realize the daunting task that Mayhew and Schwartz have in luring good talent to the lowly Lions.  Players whom the Lions supposedly targeted were quickly gobbled up by better teams for sometimes less money.  I guess this was to be expected, but with an excess of $40 million in cap space, the looming uncapped year in 2010 and the massive holes in the current roster, we expected more.  Maybe one or two top-tier players that fit what the Lions were trying to do.  But alas, it was not meant to be.  Most of the top free agents are now signed and it seems that the Lions missed the boat to Redemption Island.  But I'll tell you now... it only SEEMS that way.

You might be asking why there is any reason to be optimistic in what at first glance, appears to be a pretty glum free agency effort by Mayhew and Co.?  First, let's not downplay the few moves that they have made.  Their targets have been very specific.  They are keying on players that are young, inexpensive, relatively risk-free and serve a particular purpose on the roster.  They knew that they needed a compliment to Calvin Johnson and a back-up to Kevin Smith.  So they immediately targeted players that fit those depth positions because they knew that they could find quality back-up players early and inexpensively.  These players were easy to lure because other teams were focused on breaking the bank for the high profile players.  So instead of wasting resources on trying to entice 30+ year old starters to an 0-16 team, they targeted some of the best second-tier, depth guys early and scored.  In my humble opinion, this was a very smart move.  No doubt this was frustrating to the fans, but grand scheme-wise... very smart.

The Lions did try to snag a few veterans in some key areas where the holes could not all be filled via the draft.  The Dockery move fell apart as did the Ken Lucas trade.  "A" for effort, but that doesn't put the players in the uniforms.  This is where the repercussions of being the worst team in the league are truly felt.  Regardless of who was running this team, the reality of being the worst organization is going to keep you from getting certain players.  It is in these situations where a general manager can truly shine.  This is where he makes or breaks his career.  When the going gets tough, the tough get... creative! 

This is what, so far, has set Mayhew apart from other Detroit GM's.  He has a penchant for being creative.  He pulls out a great trade for a veteran cornerback by moving a 38 year old quarterback we were going to cut anyway.  Then we find out about the potential blockbuster trade that would've landed us Jay Cutler.  Wow!  Can you imagine if he had pulled that off?  This is mind-blowing on several levels.  First, Mayhew recognizes that Cutler is better than Cassel and that Cassel is a risk not worth taking at this point.  Time may tell if that analysis was correct or not, but right now, it looks like a great decision.  Second, it tells me that the Lions are perfectly fine not being pigeonholed into drafting Stafford with the first overall pick, BUT... recognize the need to upgrade over Culpepper and seem driven to find a player out there.  This trade gone cold gives me the hope that Mayhew will do what it takes to get the RIGHT players on this team.  He's shown restraint and patience as well as creativity and aggressiveness.  I am truly impressed and indeed confident that this team will be built the right way this time.

Okay, so maybe I am the eternal optimist; the Joey-blue-skies of Lion's fandom.  I can't help it.  I like what I see right now.  And what I see is a staff that is ready to build through the draft and not waste money like the Dan Snyder's and Jerry Jones' of the league.  Those bank-buster deals look all shiny and pretty in March, but seldom does that approach work.  Snyder has tried this again and again without success.  Does handing $156 million to Haynesworth and Hall, two guys that stomp on the heads of other players and publicly call out their head coaches, respectively, sound like a good deal?  Not to me.  Mayhew's approach will take a few years, but there are no quick fixes with this Lions team.  The band-aid approach is not acceptable.  This team must be built on young, Detroit-drafted talent and smart, calculated free agent signings.  This requires patience on behalf of management and fans alike.

I know that we Lion's fans have been burned so many times before that it's hard to buy into any routine or be optimistic about any strategy.  Most of us felt this way last season as well.  Maybe I'm just in need of another stint in Kool-Aid Rehab after swearing off the stuff for good last year.  Who knows?  But Mayhew's moves just seem smart to me.  I hope for all our sakes that he gets it right this time.

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I agree...

Mayhew may be a Millen “holdover” but he is not Matt Millen. He is smarter, and more patient. I have faith in the coaching staff, and Mayhew is making me optimistic about the front office.

I would have liked to see Detroit sign a guy like Washington, McFadden or Greer, but with all of them making other visits it is seeming less likely. With that said, the Bryant Johnson signing, Maurice Morris signing, King signing and Henry trade all fill needs, or add depth.

Mayhew is doing all he can to improve this team, the best way he knows how.

by MPerry2008 on Mar 2, 2009 1:07 PM EST reply actions  

Right on!

I’ve been trying to remind people that in modern free agency, quality starters on the right side of 32 are almost never available. Almost by definition, if the guys were worth the money they were asking for, their teams would not have let them go. And as I’ve been screaming since the season ended, THIS IS AN 0-16 TEAM. There is no way that one offseason, let alone one player can return the franchise to respectability.

I wouldn’t say I have a man-crush on Martin Mayhew, but the man is doing it the right way—not the way WE necessarily want, but the right way nonetheless.

Peace
Ty

http://thelionsinwinter.blogspot.com

by ty@thelionsinwinter on Mar 2, 2009 1:15 PM EST reply actions  

Agreed

We are not going to be the Dolphins of the 09-10 season, although we can always hope. What I like so far about Mayhew is that there is some movement going on. He seems to be pretty creative as DrewsLions said, and that is definetely not something we ever used when talkign about Millen. Getting value out of Kitna is big in my opinion as well.

by mrcooms on Mar 2, 2009 1:55 PM EST up reply actions  

DrewsLions..

is the man! You put donw some serious articles with substance. I agree %100 with everything you said. As a long time Lions fan I still have a reason to call myself a Lion fan because of the moves in the off-season.

by Quez81 on Mar 2, 2009 3:50 PM EST reply actions  

damn

I came to this site to get a feel for whom the Lions fans wanted when the first pick of the draft came around(I have the Lions in BTSC’s mock draft), and read this post. Loved it. Made me join the site just so i could tell you so. It’s good to see fans with rationality out there. I have always like the Lions, I was at the coingate game, and Barry is still my all-time non Steeler player. Good luck getting a turn around this year guys, it looks like you’re headed in the right direction.

by steelerark on Mar 2, 2009 5:15 PM EST reply actions  

Welcome aboard!

Glad you liked the post. From your handle, I take it you are a Steelers fan. To Lions fans, the Steelers are the team we want to model ourselves after. They build through the draft, know when to release aging players, rarely make big free agent splashes and most importantly, they have an awesome succession plan in place. They just keep pumping great talent into that roster year-in and year-out. That’s why I want the Lions to take it slow and build right… even if it takes a few years (we’re used to losing anyway). It’s all about the right moves at the right times.

Anyway, thanks for the kudos.

by DrewsLions on Mar 2, 2009 5:31 PM EST up reply actions  

np man

It was well written. Yeah, I’m a lifelong steeler fan, born and raised just outside of Pitt. I went to school in OK, and then moved to northwest Arkansas. I couldn’t agree more about the succession theory. In that respect, they are a lot like the hated Pats. There is always someone to step up and take over. I saw some rumors that Nate Washington and Bryant McFadden might/have already visited. Have they? McFadden has true star potential. He is just hitting his stride and has the possiblity of shutdown status. However, buyer beware on Washington. Most of us steeler fans agree he makes a decent 3rd string option, but the guy just drops way too many passes. He comes close to Braylon Edwards status.

So who do you like for the first round? I am leaning towards Aaron Curry, his workouts were sick. And he just has very little downside. On one NFL site, his first negative was that he can be too aggressive. Sounds like just what your lackluster defense needs.

by steelerark on Mar 2, 2009 5:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Mayhew is the man so far.

He got rid of Roy Williams who was nearing the end of his contract who was starting to become a problem in the locker and never would have re-signed with us anyways for twice what he should have got. And then to even get a player that is breathing (let alone a good CB who had the two best years of his career in 07 & 08) for an old QB that we would have released by Monday anyway is just brilliant). I was as skeptical as anyone else when we hired Mayhew as our GM cause I wanted Pioli or Floyd Reese (the so called sexy picks for GM, the big names) but I absolutely love just about everything he has done since he took over last season. At first come Saturday when we hadn’t got any big name players I was kind of disappointed but the more I thought about it I realized he is going about it the right way. Get key role players in free agency and get the core of our team to build around in the draft. I just hope he can get the draft right cause lord knows we haven’t seen that in almost a decade. The one thing I do wish is that maybe we would have went after Bart Scott or Rocky Bernard. At least brought them in bc I really like those two players and I think they could have filled key needs in our defense. Even if we didn’t really have a chance at them I wish we would have at least brought them in. But overall I’m extremely happy with Mayhew and I think we have a GREAT coaching staff (except for Stan Kwan I still don’t get why he’s still here). Hopefully it all works out in our favor for once. GO LIONS!!!!!

by fuckmillen on Mar 2, 2009 5:27 PM EST reply actions  

I hate to be the voice of reason,

But once the Cowboys stop huffing paint right before talking to Mayhew, were are we?

Its not like he had nothing to do with what went on for the past 8 years. I think we forget that Mayhew was the #2 when Millen was busy ruining everything. Do you think Mayhew had a master plan to keep his genius to himself so Millen would be fired and he could take over?

It is killing me to see passable starters go to other teams while we sit waiting for the right moment to jump in. I a not saying lets go overpay for bad apples, but Lito Shepherd? Anyone? And you can’t tell me that Stafford is a better bet than Cassel. And Cassel would have been our third pick, not our first. Oh, and we would have gotten some help on LB (as well as a team leader) even if it is just for a year. If Stafford and the Lions have a better year than Cassel and the Chiefs, I will eat my computer.

I hope I am proven wrong.

by ATL Lion on Mar 2, 2009 6:56 PM EST reply actions  

BUT...

Millen had complete control of everything. It doesn’t matter if Mayhew gave him advice or not Millen is a stubborn hard headed moron who people have said that he didn’t listen to anyones advice and no matter what just went out and picked up and drafted who he wanted and who he liked. He never cared about what was in the best interest of the team or what anyone else wanted him to do or thought he would do. You honestly can’t complain about what Mayhew has done so far he making huge strides right now towards improving the team which none of us have seen things done the right way in over eight years. Before he was named GM people were saying that there are plenty of other teams that would like to have him as GM. Yea he’s not a football coach or player but he is very well educated and very smart and he is one of those guys that just get it. Heis smart enough to study and learn the right and wrong way to do things and lord knows after being under Millen he knows the way not to do things. You really can’t expect him to build evn a playoff team in one or two months. Give him time he has made some amazing moves and you have to realize the people who can go to any team and start right away aren’t gonna come to an 0-16 team that has been horrible for almost a decade when they can go to a contender and start. In a year or two if we start getting pretty good and start proving we are a young up and coming team then that is the time when you can expect those first and second tier free agents to want to start coming here. Patience is a virtue and it is the key to to turning around the most abysmal team in history. GO LIONS!!!!

by fuckmillen on Mar 2, 2009 10:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Mayhew is doing everything right....

….You build through the draft and sign free agents for depth….Id like to see trade down at 1.20 and pick up a 2nd or 3rd rounder too….Could even trade down at 2.1 and pick up another 3rd rounder….i think they will do those things becasue they need bodies and high draft picks are the way to get good quality players. GO LIONS AND GO MAYHEW!!!!

by BennieBladesFan on Mar 2, 2009 7:26 PM EST reply actions  

Good post

I like what Mayhew hasdone so far. His big test will be the draft. If he can 5 solid starters out of our 5 opening picks, I’ll be stoked.

by Hyperion Ecta on Mar 2, 2009 10:03 PM EST reply actions  

I totally agree with this post. It seems like the right course, and while I’m certainly not lining up for some kool-aid, its definitely giving me a little bit of hope.

by IAmJoe on Mar 3, 2009 12:15 AM EST reply actions  

All of You!!!

Keep in mind, the Cutler deal is still unfolding. ’nuff said.

by dylan415 on Mar 3, 2009 12:37 AM EST reply actions  

please please please please please

by wumanchu01 on Mar 3, 2009 2:18 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm In

This does seem to be working and no need to waste a ot of money on a guy who isn’t going to want to play 3 games into the season (Haynesworth). He’s been a contract chaser type forever. He plays like assbags until its time to get paid then all of a sudden he turns it on. He’s lazy. I was kinda hoping for a Bart Scott chase but Rex Ryan trumped everyone on that one. With all this Cutler talk it does kinda leave the door open for the Lions to do whatever they want on draft day. They aren’t laying the cards down and showing their hand.

by BERNARDJ on Mar 4, 2009 7:48 AM EST reply actions  

BTW...

I always get Spagnoli and Pioli confused, my bad!

by BERNARDJ on Mar 4, 2009 7:49 AM EST reply actions  

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