Why take a QB at #1 when you can get him at #20?
by IAmJoe on Mar 6, 2009 6:34 PM EST
22 comments
A lot of people expect the Lions to take a QB with the first overall pick in the draft. But when the market for these rookie QB's is so small, why should the Lions take a QB at the #1 spot, if that QB will still be there at #20? Let's take a look at who could be interested in a QB between picks 1 and 20.
#2 - St. Louis - They have Marc Bulger, who has a monster contract, and is quite serviceable, when he's not flat on the ground.
#3 - Kansas City - Just got Cassell, they're not interested.
#4 - Seattle - They have Hasselbeck, and while he's getting older, this team has a lot of other problems to fix in the meantime.
#5 - Cleveland - They just gave the starting job to Brady Quinn, they're not going to throw another rookie QB behind him.
#6 - Cincinatti - Carson Palmer is still a good QB, if they can protect him. Again, there are bigger holes to fill.
#7 - Oakland - Isn't ready to give up on JaMarcus Russell yet, especially with the holes they have elsewhere.
#8 - Jacksonville - Just gave Garrard a big contract, and again, they have other holes to fill.
#9 - Green Bay - Aaron Rodgers had a decent year, the problem here is the defense.
#10 - San Francisco - This is one team that might decide to draft a QB. But having been burned by their last first round QB and having a defensive guy for a head coach, they could just as easily decide to shore up other areas of need.
#11 - Buffalo - They're quite confident in Trent Edwards.
#12 - Denver - They're keeping Cutler, and that means they don't need a QB.
#13 - Washington - Jason Campbell showed flashes of being a quality NFL QB last year, particularly in the first half, before the wheels came off for the entire team. This is a big "show me" year for him.
#14 - New Orleans - Drew Brees ain't goin no where.
#15 - Houston - Matt Schaub ain't going anywhere yet.
#16 - San Diego - He's a raging douchebag, but Phil Rivers is still their QB.
#17 - New York Jets - This is the second of 3 teams in the first 20 picks who might look to get a QB. QB is a glaring need, but Rex Ryan has said he is comfortable with their QB's, and he may wish to get a first-hand look at exactly what he has to work with. Ryan could take this year as a "show me" year for his QB's, and draft one out of next year's strong QB class, if those on the roster don't work out.
#18 - Chicago - Kyle Orton actually did decent last year. And considering the holes elsewhere in this roster, it would be a bad move to take a QB.
#19 - Tampa Bay - This is the last of the three teams that could take a QB before #20. There are certainly other needs that could be addressed, but it wouldn't surprise me if they took a QB here.
San Francisco, New York Jets, and Tampa Bay. They're not all going to take QB's, and in fact, I'd be surprised if more than one took a QB. Every year, we see someone (Quinn, Rodgers, etc.) go plummeting through the first round, and everyone in the media acts surprised, when its really not that surprising, if you look at who's picking. Why not let that QB's loss be the Lion's gain? He'll be pissed and have a chip on his shoulder because he fell through the first round, and the Lions will get to cash in by drafting someone at #1 who actually deserves it (my preference is on an OT), and then get to take a QB at #20, who will also have a much more reasonable contract.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Pride of Detroit or its writers. FanPosts are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable fans.
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Agree for the most part
The one thing I sort of disagree with is Seattle. With Hasselbeck fighting injuries the last 2 seasons and only Seneca Wallace there to back him up, I could easily see them taking their QB of the future. He’d be going to a good situation where he could sit a year or two behind a solid veteran. They addressed their most glaring need at WR with the Housh signing. It’s not a slam dunk but I wouldn’t rule it out.
Btw….I agree that there’s a good chance that there will be a QB at 20. And even he (they) fall to 20, it wouldn’t take much to move ahead of Tampa and NY to get him. I’d put the odds of Tampa taking a QB at about 100% if Sanchez or Stafford is there when they pick. If Gruden was still there it’d be 300%.
Seattle?
are you kidding me there is no way in the world they would make a move like this this team has been in the Playoffs for like the last Decade, and most of the time they are contending for a Superbowl. All they need is a piece, a piece, and they are back in the playoffs, this is a team who had a ton of injuries last year and to key players too. And another thing why the heck would you kick Hasselbeck to the curb? I mean i know he is injured but if he isn’t he is one of the top 5 QBs in the League plus its not like the guy is old he has got a few more years left seriously if they took Stafford i would be shocked their new Coach can’t make this move Seattle just lost their NBA Franchise they are not going to give up their most beloved Athlete as well (Ken Griffrey Jr might top him but he just came back) this would be a terrible move on all fronts you are taking the leader out of a team he has lead for a long time there goes the Chemistry then you have a lesser QB in there for you and yes Hasselbeck is better than Stafford which means the Vetson the team are going to get ticked because the coach let a younger player have the job just cause he is young cause there is no way Stafford beats out Hasselbeck if he is still around
then you have the fans who watch their beloved QB go to the Bench or go to another team then Stafford starts doing bad what the heck do you think they are going to do they are going to hate the Coach hate the GM hate Stafford and can you blame them? no way we are going thru the same thing here in Detroit look what happened when we traded one of our beloved players (Chauncey Billups) away for a “Better Player” (Allen Iverson) we are now a losing team destined for a lottery pick and guess what i am ticked at the GM (Joe Dumars) and the Coach (Michael Curry) because they wanted something better when there was already a good thin going so if Seattle has any sense (Which they do) they will not draft Stafford
Relax JMW
No one’s saying they’re gonna kick Hasselbeck to the curb. But the fact of the matter is that he’s had problems staying healthy. Like I said, it’s not a lock. I’m just saying I wouldn’t count it out as a possibility. They wouldn’t be the first team to draft the QB of the future while the QB of the present is still playing well (Hasselbeck himself was one of about 5 QBs drafted to be Favre’s successor). I agree, Hasselbeck is an excellent QB but he ain’t no spring chicken and you can’t dismiss injuries as a concern. It would be perfectly reasonable for them take a QB and groom him slowly.
And you’re right about Seattle being a good team that isn’t far from making another playoff run. That’s why they have the luxury of taking a pick like this. They can get those other pieces with their other picks.
Again, I’m not predicting this will happen. But Stafford will be considered a high value pick at 4 (whether that’s accurate or not is debatable, but that will be the perception) and they might just pull the trigger.
true
Stafford could be there QB of the future but am i right in saying that this team if healthy needs one or 2 more pieces to contend? a backup QB is not one of those pieces heck i want them to take stafford cause that means we didn’t and won’t and it leaves more Defensive Players and OTs
Yes
You are absolutely right about them. But it wouldn’t be the first time a team drafted for the future and it wouldn’t be the first time a team drafted for value. I wouldn’t do it if I were them. But I’m not going to completely discount the possibility.
I think the big difference between a situation like Rodgers/Favre and Hasselbeck/Stafford is the draft pick position, as well as other holes to be filled. When the Packers took Rodgers, they were being played every year by Favre with the retirement game, and that pick was also something like a late teens/early 20’s pick. It was a build for the future when the incumbent QB was 1) not doing that good in previous years, 2) already discussing retirement for quite sometime, and when the team as a whole had fewer holes than the current Seahawks do, and the pick itself was a much less valuable one.
When you have a top-5 pick in the draft, you need someone who is going to help you now, or at least, is an obvious part of the plan. When you take a QB in the top-5, you have to be planning to start that guy very soon, especially if you’re passing up other positions of need to take said QB, when you already have a serviceable QB.
All very fair points
And again, I can’t say this enough, I’m not saying they should or even that they necessarily will take Stafford at 4. I’m just saying I wouldn’t be so quick to discount it as a possibility. With Hasselbeck’s injuries last season, it wouldn’t shock me if Seattle started thinking about grooming his eventual replacement. You’re probably right that they wouldn’t spend a very high pick for it. But for some reason everyone seems to have a huge hard on for Stafford and if he fell to four they COULD see it as a good value pick. All I’m saying is that if the Lions are planning their draft strategy to include getting a QB at 20 (as this post suggested they do), it would be a mistake to discount Seattle as a team that might take one ahead of them.
by the way
Wallace is a good enough backup that they don’t need another one
Epic Fail
Why draft a QB at all when the QB class this year is weak?? The Lions have a real chance of putting together a strong D in this draft. I’d rather they went OT with the first pick and pick up one of the five or six really good LB’s available. Even pick 33 shouldn’t be a QB. Our offense wasn’t the reason we went 0-16 last year.
What about that Texas A&M kid?
Is it Mc Gee or something. I never saw him play but he seems to be the talk of the town after his Pro day. From what I can tell, he’d be a late 3rd rounder to a fourth round pick. Something to look at?
Seattle does not need a QB. Hasselbeck is still good, and more than that, the problem for the last couple years has been piss-poor receiving (mostly fixed now with Branch + Housh), and poor OLine play. The Chiefs and Seahawks are both going to be looking to take an OT with their first rounders, and quite likely, the Rams as well. The top OT talent won’t be making it to #20, so the Lions have to get an OT while they can at #1.
Need impact players.
A first round QB sitting on the bench learning isnt an impact player. Need production out of the draft, and drafting a QB #1 overall is against the whole smart signings strategy the brass keeps talking about. Sinking a majority of your cap space on a player who wont play makes zero sense. Curry #1.
When angry, count four; when very angry, swear. ~Mark Twain, Pudd'nhead Wilson, 1894
I say give denver our #1 pick for cutler and they can have stafford he looks like elway anyway,I think sanchez is a better fit he throws better on the run than stafford and more accurate,we all know who ever the QB is better be able to run as many sacks as we had
last year.
I'd love for that to happen
But Denver has already said they don’t want the #1 pick because it’d cost too much money.
Sanchez
couldn’t start at USC until all the QB’s went pro. He played one season and he’s not going to make it in the pros. All I’m sayin is he couldn’t beat Jon David Booty for the starting nod in college and JDB is in Minnesota now, who just gave a way a pick for Rosenfeld. They have no QB in Viking town and still the guy couldn’t get a shot. That sounds like Sanchez is a recipe for EPIC FAIL if we pick him at 20. Or at all.
Everyone’s who’s all into getting that “face of the franchise” needs to recall Joey. Just because the guy plays QB and this years qb class is weak doesn’t mean we’re getting a good passer.
And the guy who said that paying a guy first round money to sit and learn is right on. Pick guys who are going to play. Not potentials who won’t be ready for 3 years.
In all honesty
As a Lions fan as well as a Georgia Tech fan taking Stafford at 1-1 makes me want to puke but in all honesty I don’t think that Stafford is as likely a bust as we think and if we got him at 20 and gave him a year with a clipboard I don’t think that we would be too bad off.
wont last until 20 lots of teams need QB like SF BUCS VIKES AND us,WE NEED MORE THAN CULPEPPER,Take losman off free agency and watch culpepper sit the bench cause at least jp likes to win wants to win and can win with the right tools like calvin a beefed up OL.I just dont culpeppers going to be the answer and dont have any faith in our 2 backups who dont have any exp,
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