POD Community Mock Draft: Pick No. 33
by Sean Yuille on Apr 15, 2009 1:00 PM EDT
in NFL Draft
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With the 33rd pick of the 2009 Pride of Detroit Community Mock Draft, the Detroit Lions select Tennessee defensive end Robert Ayers.
Here is DrewsLions' reasoning for the pick:
I suppose I was a bit naïve to think that the #33 pick was going to be easy. Unlike the #20 pick which didn't have a lot of great options, the #33 pick ends up being a tough selection because of the number of good options available. The pressure is now on me to able to make the right selection here. After much debate, I narrowed my search to four capable players: Robert Ayers, Evander Hood, Alex Mack and Duke Robinson.
I'll start with the two guards, Alex Mack and Duke Robinson. There is no doubt in my mind that both of these players instantly upgrade our offensive line. There is little downside to picking either of these players. Mack might be the more talented of the two because of his ability to play center as well and would be a great asset as Raiola's back-up or eventual successor. But I probably would have taken Robinson over Mack. He is the best pure guard in the draft and I'll be surprised to see him last this long in the real draft. He is a mauler and the run blocker we've needed for many years. At 6'5", 335 lbs, he is a true road-grader but could play right tackle if needed. It was hard to pass on both of these great prospects, but I just felt there was a player there for the taking with more upside and value.
With Hood, I just felt like I might be reaching a little and letting the pressure of needing a good defensive tackle cloud my vision of the best player available. If Hood had Ron Brace's size and kept a bit of his athleticism, he would have been an easy choice. The fact is, Hood isn't as athletic as Peria Jerry and isn't the run stuffer that Ron Brace is. This spot is too high for Brace and since Jerry's off the board, you're left with a bit of a ‘tweener in Hood that is probably better suited for the mid to late 2nd or early 3rd round in terms of value. Some will probably disagree with that sentiment, but that's how I feel after looking at a lot of film and doing a lot of research on him.
That leads me to my pick of Robert Ayers. I truly thought that someone would scoop him up prior to this pick - especially with the fuss some of you made over me not taking him at #20. But choosing Ayers was still a bit of a leap for me. His ability and upside are great, but there are some concerns over his character and passion for the game. For me, taking Ayers is the closest that I will come to taking a risk. But at the #33 pick, when many have Ayers projected in the mid-first round and specifically Mike Mayock - who calls Ayers a Top 5 player (I disagree with that assessment, by the way) - it's tough to pass on him.
Although defensive end is not an immediately pressing need, there are two reasons that I felt I could make this pick here and now. First is Ayers overall ability. His quarterback rushing skills and initial burst are not of the Top 5 caliber, but his play against the run is absolutely worthy of that designation. I can see him playing on first and second down with Avril being the third down rusher. With Cunningham barking on his ass all day and with Schwartz's ability to scheme for his talent, I think that Ayers can be an absolute steal at this point in the draft and have an immediate impact. My second reason is that I can still see us being able to get a solid guard and defensive tackle in the third round. Guys like Brace and Urbik could slide into the third round and there will be other good options there as well. I think this is where the Lions take a little bit of a risk, but could end up with three good first round-caliber players.
Again, this pick will not satisfy everyone. There seem to be those on the Ayers bandwagon and those that think he'll be a bust. But at the top of the second round, I think there is significant value in the pick. Ayers could be a major part of this team finally solidifying their run defense - which is atop the to-do list for the Schwartz regime.
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I voted yes
only because you made a decent argument. Since you already addressed QB and MLB, The D-line is a good place to start. I might have been tempted to reach on Brace. But, like you said, Ayers is a steal at this point. I can’t believe he was still on the board. It’s drafting talent over need, but it’s a lot of talent to pass up.
I voted no...
I understand the pick, and would be happy with it… but I really like Hood better.
The real question is… WTF is Ayers still doing on the board? 5… 5 WRs taken in the first round!!!! SHEESH! WE ARE LIONS FANS>>>>>> LMFAO!!!!
CLF is right!!!!
Ziggy Hood is the better pick here. Add a D end for depth later. We’ve got DWhite if healthy, and check the stats. Avril had more sacks than Dwilliams, #1 pick overall in his rookie year, only starting 1/2 the number of games. I heard an interview with Ziggy. Not only his talent, but all the intangibles. Do it here.
I voted yes
You sold me with your reasoning, great write up,. Ayers will be gone at #33 in the real world, In the POD world run up to the podium and turn in that card.
by Runnin' Rebel on Apr 15, 2009 1:47 PM EDT reply actions
this works
for me. but now i wonder, who will protect Stafford?
I voted no
I think theres more pressing needs rather than drafting a run stopping DE. Offensive line, defensive tackle and corner back are more important areas right now. Not to mention he only had one good year at Tennessee. Could of gotton a better impact starter with this pick.
NO I don't agree.
Any of the next level DTs will be gone by pick #65; Hood, Brace, and Moala. I guess we will be looking at tweeners like Marks, or Magee, and NT like Scott, or Baker. None of them the impact player that the first three are.
Also Left Tackle is out of the picture as Cadogan and Meredith seemed to be the last realistic possibilities. Kropog is an outside shot that I would not take, even in the late third round. I do agree that some Guard material may be there in the third, although I think we will not get the impact from those linemen that an LT would give us.
Again, I don’t like the reasoning that anyone who would be gone by the next pick is somehow a reach. Especially a guy like Hood who has been rated at a late round one to early round two pick. Ayers is rated around the same spot . Ayers was basically a mediocre player until the second half of his senior season. Sure he did well at the combine, but is that any reason to jack up his value that much? I read his scouting report at NFLDRAFTSCOUT.com and it rates him quite low as a pass rusher, more as a run stopper. I don’t think that is much of an upgrade over what we have.
One thing this highlights for me is the advantage of trading the #20 pick for two or three second and third rounders. Helps us to address our multiple needs a little easier.
Oh well, its all speculation, right?
I respect your comments, North
You seem to have a better knowledge of the late round picks than I do, so I’ll concede that maybe some of the guys you mentioned aren’t the best solutions to our current holes. But unless my memory serves me wrong, weren’t you the one arguing on another post that guys who are rated as third round talent should be plugged in as starters? Maybe it was someone else. Anyway, if guys like Marks, Magee, etc. are rated third round material, than they should be capable of starting, right?
I have some concerns about Ayers as well. The thing is, I wasn’t expecting to be faced with him there at #33. So I had to make a decision based on some of the analysts I trust with a true assessment of Ayers. I thought he was worth the risk if he turns out to be a solid end. Hood may have been a good selection as well, I just wasn’t blown away by the tape that I could find on him. If Ayers hadn’t been there, I would have taken Duke Robinson.
I appreciate your comments, though.
Yes I mentioned those guys.
I guess I would feel a lot better with one of the higher rated DTs [first or second rounders] and one of the third rounders, instead of two later guys. I think we will need one of the drafted DTs to start right away.
And I appreciate what you are saying about Ayers. Even though DE may be a relative strength of this team, it can only help to get a first round talent on the roster. And you are not alone in giving the Lions a DE. I have seen a few mocks by reputable sites that have the Lions taking a DE at #33 or #65.
One question though, if in our mock, Beanie Wells had fallen to #33 would you have taken him? Just for his value?
No, I wouldn't have taken Wells
And I can see your point with value versus need. But I think that DE is not as strong as we think. It MIGHT be a strong point if White can move to his natural position at LE and if Avril is as good as we all THINK he is. He showed flashes, but remember, he’s a little small and right now he’s far from a guarantee at RE. He really didn’t start all that much last year and has had limited playing time. He’s also a liability against the run due to his size. And then there’s the concern with depth at the position. Who else do we have? DeVries? 5-0? Not much confidence if Avril or White goes down and you have to rely on one of those guys full time.
My thoughts exactly
I appreciate that you had a tough selection Drew, but to me this seems like the opposite of what you did with the first pick. You chose Stafford because of need and left the best player still on the board (n many peoples eyes), while here you deciding to go with the best player, and leave the need. Seems slightly strange.
Like North said, Hood is definitely not a reach at this position, if we had an extra pick in the 2nd, I probably wouldn’t be to worried, but even then, I’d prefer you take a DT/OL combo. Ayers looks like a decent to strong player but I think DE is one of our few minor needs and doesn’t really need to be chosen in this draft.
2009 = The start of the Lions Golden Age (We hope).
by Hyperion Ecta on Apr 15, 2009 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Nothing strange going on here
For me it’s always about the combination of need, value and overall impact with respect to the draft number. I’ve probably used that phrase a million times here. I look at the best player on the board, size them all up with the overall need that the Lions have and then determine the overall impact of that player in relation to the pick. I did nothing different with my analysis here. It’s just with this particular pick, Ayers’ impact in relation to how fall he fell in the draft trumped some of the need and he was the best player on my board.
I’ll say this… it’s very possible that Hood was worth this pick. But like I said before, there was a noticeable difference in the tape I watched of him versus Peria Jerry…. big difference. Maybe I didn’t find his best highlight reel or something, but he and Jerry are similar players with respect to style. I just wasn’t nearly as impressed with Hood. That, coupled with Ayers’ upside, made my decision for me.
Also, see my response to NorthLeft12 above. I’m not nearly as impressed with our DE corps as everyone else seems to be. We can definitely use an upgrade there. As pressing as DT… no. But needed nonetheless.
My take.
I personally think that we need a serious upgrade at DT this year in the draft. I am still all about taking Taylor in the third, so I think hood at #33 and Taylor in the 3rd is a better option than Ayers. I just don’t like how Ayers came flying out of nowhere after the Senior Bowl. Noone even really knew him prior to that. I’m just not really on the Ayers bandwagon or convinced that he would improve our team as much as Hood. We aren’t that horrible at DE right now but DT is hurting and there is a quality DT on the board.
Great picks
DrewLions, you are doing a great job with the draft so far. I love this pick. you should run for Gm if TL annd MM don’t pen out.
Yeah, no kidding
With picks like these we could actually compete in a few years. We have a huge opportunity to fill some holes this year, so we really need to capitalize
Check out nickandroll.blogspot.com
I voted No
I like Ayers, but personally I think we have bigger areas of need than DE. I think the DE we have are serviceable for awhile, but I would want someone to help Grady in the middle of the D-line or a O-lineman.
I do understand taking a talent over a need and I will say a lot of you guys are more knowledge of the guys coming out this year than I, but this was just my thoughts on it.
we may be trading with the bills
a first and third pick with Bakus to the bills for Peters… stay tuned
Is this actually being reported or is this based on speculation?
Pride of Detroit, SB Nation's Lions Blog
I sincerely hope that doesn't happen
2009 = The start of the Lions Golden Age (We hope).
by Hyperion Ecta on Apr 16, 2009 7:02 AM EDT up reply actions
If that happens I will be totally pissed.
I know the Buffalo SB site is banging the drum for that trade but as I commented on their site, “Matt Millen does not live here anymore.”
That is a brutally bad trade. I mean horrible. Words fail me.
by NorthLeft12 on Apr 16, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Bad move...
where did you hear that? That would really surprise me to see the Lions give up a pick for a guy that can draft and not have to give up a player. Think your info is suspect, dude.
not sold
Not a bad draft Drewslions but I’d think i’d much rather see a different pick @ #20 and see if James L. falls. I think 20 goes to Vontae Davis to play cb/fs then hopefully see J.L. at # 33. Can’t see draft results here but would like to see Beatty or Hood if James if off the board !
WELCOME ABOARD!
As I posted before, Mayock has this guy capable of playing all 7 front line positions. His versatility is the best in the draft on the D side of the ball.
In a 4-3, he can play DT. In a 3-4, he can play LB, even on the inside.
I think it is far more likely he and JL will switch positions on draft day, but you play the hand you are given.
I wouldn’t mind seeing Mitch King with the 65 pick, to shore up that line some more, especially given Jackson’s age.
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