FanPost

I want Curry, but Jason Smith may be the best pick

Three days to go, one final thought...I'd be very happy with Curry, I think he'd be a fine #1 pick, but here's why I think Jason Smith may be just a little bit safer.

According to conventional wisdom...

If we draft a QB #1, we need to draft OL very high (probably Oher, or Britton) to protect Stafford so he can make plays (and to boost our run game too).
If we draft a MLB #1, we need to draft DL very high (Jerry or Hood or Brace at #20 or #33) to protect Curry from taking on OG's so he can make plays (and to boost our run defense too).

A very good QB prospect behind a shoddy O-Line will be about as effective as a fantastic MLB prospect behind a shoddy D-Line.

A good OL, however, doesn't need somebody else in front of him to be successful for him to play well.

The difference in safety, upside, and value between what we could get at #1 and what we could get at #20 looks to be similar across positions, which is common sense--the farther you go down the draft, the less you're likely getting for your pick:

Curry vs Maualuga (if available, otherwise Laurinaitis)
Smith vs Oher (if available, otherwise Britton)
Stafford vs Sanchez (if available, otherwise Freeman)

More common sense: the biggest risk with a draft pick is that he doesn't play well in the NFL--he's a bust.  It's possible for any player to not live up to expectations; it happens every year.  Maybe Peria Jerry can't hack it in the NFL; maybe Michael Oher doesn't have what it takes.  You just don't know.

Jason Smith plays at a position where he can dominate on his own.  He doesn't need the #20 pick to be successful in order for him to do his job.  It's him against the DE in front of him, and if he can beat the tar out of that DE, keep him away from the QB, and move him out of the way on run plays, that's all that matters.

If we go Curry -> Hood and Hood's no better than Fluellen or Cohen, Curry may be severely limited--having to take on OG's all day because it only takes one of their OL's to block our DT.

If we go Stafford -> Britton and Britton's no better than Backus, Stafford may be severely limited--getting sacked like crazy.  I really don't want a David Carr situation at all.

With Jason Smith, we can draft him #1, and then do whatever we want at #20 and #33, take BPA at any position of need, and get the best possible value, instead of needing to lock into a particular position of need to protect the #1 pick (and then hoping with fingers crossed that we don't have to reach by the time #20 rolls around), had the pick been Curry or Stafford.

I know we're loaded with draft picks, and we probably need to come away with OL and DL pretty high in the draft anyway, but I still would probably honestly feel, as far as the #1 overall goes, the best thing to happen may be Jason Smith being a Lion, even though Curry is my favorite...if that makes sense at all.

 

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Pride Of Detroit or its writers.

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