Fun with stats

by sgdbw90 on Apr 24, 2009 12:18 AM EDT Comment 19 comments

Here are Detroit's rankings in the entire league in interesting categories from last year:
Passing: The Lions were 29th in the league in passer rating. 30th in completion percentage. 27th in passing first downs. They had the 5th most interceptions. They actually had the 12th most plays of 20 yards or more (thank you, Megatron), but that just makes it so much more striking that they finished 24th in total passing yards.
Defense: We all know how atrocious the defense was. Dead last in yards allowed, points allowed, etc. Of note, though, is that the Lions finished a respectable 16th in the league in sacks. And, curiously, they forced the third most fumbles (and recovered the 2nd most).
What is my point? The defense is clearly broken, but the passing game is also totally abysmal. Bear in mind that we were playing from behind almost the whole season long and we still couldn't accumulate legit passing stats. I love Aaron Curry. I think he'll be a stud. But a stud QB goes further towards fixing an offense than a stud MLB goes towards fixing a defense. I know defense wins championships, but 100% of the time a QB is more important to a team than a MLB.
In my ideal draft, they take Stafford first over all, an o-lineman with the 33rd pick, and every other selection is on defense. Curry will be an excellent player, but he won't have the same effect on this team that Stafford would. He may be better from day 1, but what about day 101? Or 1001? And, like I've said before, QB requires more time than any other position to develop. Getting Stafford in the pipeline now means we can focus next year on the best available defensive talent. Odds are that person will be more capable of starting from day one, meaning that 2010 we might actually have a shot.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Pride of Detroit's main writer, Sean, or the site in general. FanPosts are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable fans.

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I see a lot of posts

talking about next year’s QB’s like Tebow, Bradford, and McCoy. I haven’t really done any research on Defensive prospects. What are some of next year’s Defensive draft possibilities?

by James L on Apr 24, 2009 12:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This should help

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/TSX/2010

You’ll notice some highly regarded defensive players, including Spikes at MLB.

Also of note is number 39, John Jerry, who is Perla Jerry’s brother. What kind of parents name their kids Perla and John? WTF?

by sgdbw90 on Apr 24, 2009 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

That’s a nice link.

by James L on Apr 24, 2009 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like this

Great post. After all is said and done, it makes more sense to get the QB under development now so we can focus on building the support structure around him. Taking Stafford #1 does not preclude us from drafting heavily for defense, and there are plenty of LB prospects for us after Aaron Curry. (Come on, Laurinaitis!)

by AZ Yooper on Apr 24, 2009 12:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Keep in Mind

Alot of those passer statistics spanned 5 QB’s playing games, 2 of which had never gotten a look as a starter before, another career backup, a guy who hadn’t played a down in, what, a year? and a guy who imploded 4 games into the season..

We’re in deep shit if you think Stafford is the only way to improve. Culpepper will do MUCH better this year.

Not that Stafford wouldn’t help, but it’s not like we had one guy under center.

Drafting a quarterback first overall is like watching your mother-in-law drive over the edge of a cliff in your new Mercedes.

-Brian Billick

by Nate D. on Apr 24, 2009 1:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

precisely my point

the inconsistency under center was a huge problem last year. there is no future amongst any of these guys. Even if DC picks up his game (and I hope he does), he’s a free agent after next year, and Mayhew should be smart enough to not sign him to a multiyear deal. The Lions have to get a reliable QB somewhere, and they’re clearly not trusting Stanton with the role. So it’s either take Stafford now or hope that we get one of the big (Bradford, McCoy, Tebow) next year. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, I say.

by sgdbw90 on Apr 24, 2009 1:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

big THREE (Bradford, McCoy, Tebow)

by sgdbw90 on Apr 24, 2009 1:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great use of available data.

sgd, Thanks for taking the time to put this information together and use it to support a logical argument.

You did not show it but our rush offence was putrid [30th] as well. Although in yards per rush [3.8 for 28th] we were ahead of the Steelers[3.7 ypc for 29th].

We need to consider 2009 as a development year and resign ourselves to another loss filled season [I think twelve or thirteen losses is most likely]. But with the infusion of talent from 2009, a year where our coaches weed out who can or can’t play, and more FAs and the 2010 draft, I think we may be looking at .500 in 2010.

by NorthLeft12 on Apr 24, 2009 7:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I looked up rush data

but decided that it wasn’t too useful considering how often the Lions were playing from behind. They definitely suck in that category, but it’s misleading how much they do suck. Honestly, my preference for draftees was the same as the Lions which is to say 1) Stafford 2) Smith 3) Curry. Smith looks to be out of the equation now, but i would have absolutely endorsed his pick as well.

by sgdbw90 on Apr 24, 2009 8:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You would still think our rushing would be better than that.

sgd, How many times did the Lions basically give up and just use the games for practices?
ie. Vs Tennessee, New Orleans, Chicago, Jville, and a few others.
They did not go crazy with the pass [least attempts in the NFL I think] and actually tried to establish the run fairly often. Teams would have been playing a near prevent defence and I would have thought our rush average would have been a lot higher.

That being said I think the offence was improving over the year, but I credit Orlovsky for that, not Daunte.

by NorthLeft12 on Apr 24, 2009 8:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

Nice post sgdbw90. I pretty much agree with everything you said, from why drafting Stafford makes sense and your optimal draft plan for this year. When you look at Staffords career stats they don’t blow you away, but I think we should focus more on the progress he’s made each year, even last year when his o-line was decimated by injuries. The last conference you’d want to play in as a QB with a terrible o-line is the SEC.

Completion : 52.7, 55.7%, 61.4%
Yards: 1749, 2523, 3459
Yards per Attempt: 6.83, 7.25, 9.03
TD’s: 7, 19, 25
TD/INT Ratio: 7/13, 19/10, 25/10

Don’t forget this guy is a true junior, so he’s a year younger then Smith or Curry. Last year at this time Smith and Curry were graded as 2nd to 3rd round prospects. If he stayed for his senior year at Georgia I think it’s realistic to expect him to put up a line of: 66%, 4,000 yds, 10 YPA, 30 TD’s and 10 INT’s based on the progress he’s made each year. Those numbers are in a pro style vertical passing game (like Linnehans) against the best defenses in the country.

Many people have said wait for a QB next year (Tebow, Bradford, McCoy), but IMO there are much bigger question marks for all those guys then Stafford. All take 95+ percent of their snaps out of the shotgun formation. Tebow and McCoy run similar shotgun-zone read offenses…the ones A. Smith and Vincey Young ran…name me a good QB in the pro’s who came out of college running that type of offense? Before every snap Bradford get’s in position and looks to the sideline so that his coach can make any necessary pre-snap adjustments. Overall the defense in the Big 12 are not very good…Bradford and McCoy both had very good offensive lines and had all day to throw the ball. I’m not saying none of them can be good pro’s, but there would be a huge learning curve to runninig a pro-style offense and learning to go through all your progressions.

IMO the best plan would be to have him sit the whole year or the vast majority of the year. Draft Oher at 20 if available, otherwise take one of the interior lineman with pick 33 and draft defense the rest of the way. Next year we take another quality o-lineman or two and draft the rest defense to have a solid foundation to build around Stafford when he’s ready to play.

I definitely wouldn’t be pissed if we drafted Curry, I just think Stafford is the best option if we ulitmately want to win a championship.

by Stones1981 on Apr 24, 2009 9:27 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs

thank you...

stones for that. The Big Three QB’s next year are all going to have huge question marks.

by JCruize on Apr 24, 2009 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

AMEN Brothers!

My apologies if you are atheists.

by NorthLeft12 on Apr 24, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great argument

Wow! This thread is full of sound arguments…I love it!
I think his progression, as you’ve laid out, has been one of Stafford’s biggest selling points for me. Add to that the fact that he comes from that pro-style offense, and I think he could do very well in this league.
Rec’d.

by AZ Yooper on Apr 24, 2009 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great post Stones

Agree completely.

2009 = The start of the Lions Golden Age (We hope).

by Hyperion Ecta on Apr 24, 2009 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"100% of the time a QB is more important than the MLB"

wanna tell that to the Ravens, who won with Ray Lewis at MLB and Trent Dilfer at QB? Would you honestly tell me Trent Dilfer was more important than Lewis?

"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane
"That was a great pick...if this was 2002" Me, to guy who selected Barry Zito in a fantasy draft
www.27ClubPeak.blogspot.com

by harendaman365 on Apr 24, 2009 10:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

for every

Ravens scenerio. How many teams were lead to the SuperBowl by their QB. After that Super Bowl. How many times did the Ravens make the playoffs? Not including last season. Twice in seven years. Both were first round loses. They still had Ray Lewis.

by JCruize on Apr 24, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not valid comparison

I don’t think the right comparison is Dilfer vs. Ray Lewis. Everyone would take a Ray Lewis from that year over Dilfer. I think the point sgdbw90 was tyring to make is that QB is by far the most important position on the field. If you could know for 100% certainty that you can get an elite level player at any position, then everyone would choose QB.

by Stones1981 on Apr 24, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m not saying that no team has succeeded with a better MLB than QB. What I’m saying is that if you asked a coach whether he’d prefer a stud QB or a stud MLB, they’ll always choose QB. Hence 100%.

by sgdbw90 on Apr 24, 2009 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs