Rant from a Lions fan who's never been to Detroit

If you're trying to avoid depressing thoughts or trying to make yourself feel better about Stafford, this isn't the fan post for you.  I need to rant right now and I'm not going to pretend to think anything other than what I really think.

Now I gotta admit, I really like Jim Schwartz.  He's impressed me from the day he was hired.  The rest of the head staff, on the other hand, has me worried.  Both the O and D coordinators got their reputations only team with very impressive talent and heve since bombed in other places without that talent.  I don't know if you've looked at the talent around here, but it's only very impressive in how much we don't have... as in less than those other places where our coordinators have already bombed.

Then their's Lewand and Mayhew.  When they were promoted, 83% of us thought it was a bad move.  Since then we've somehow managed to talk ourselves in to the idea that, even though they joined the Lions at about the same time Millen did (i.e. have been in the front office for all that time), that Millen just never listened to anybody.  These guys are totally innocent of anything that happened with this franchise over that span.  Well, I'm just not drinking that Kool-Aid.  Case in point number 1:

We just gave an unproven quarterback that's never played an NFL down the most guaranteed money in the history of the NFL.  Some people point to the jacked up contracts #1 picks have been getting, and that's certainly a part of it, but we just upped the ante by 25% over the second biggest rookie contract ever.  Really?  That's the best you could do?  We're not talking about a Peyton Manning "everybody is drooling over him and thinks he's going to be great" quarterback here, we're talking about somebody that has been primarily been talked about, by #1 pick standards, in pretty luke-warm terms.

He's not exactly dropping in to the best situation either.  Situations like the Lions eat up and spit out promising young QBs with ruthless efficiency.  Here's the way I feel about his chances:

10% - Star (8+ pro bowls, maybe HoF)

25% - Solid starter (goes to a some pro bowls, has a great year or three, never seen as a weakness)

45% - David Carr-like career (shows potential greatness up front, but lack of offensive line, an average-ish running game, and only one good receiver ends up killing his career)

20% - Straight up bust

It's the David Carr comparison that seems all to close to me.  The Lions have expansion level talent overall.  Megatron = Andre Johnson (super stud receiver on a crappy team).  Kevin Smith = Dominick Davis (solid, but not great running back).  Lions crappy O-line = Texans crappy O-line (self explanatory).

It's a bigger deal than just this draft though.  As I mentioned in the title of this fanpost, I'm not from Detroit.  I grew up in Portland, OR.  I'm also a huge fans of the Portland Trailblazers and Oregon Ducks... but those make sense.  They are my home town teams.  They represent my home.  As for the Lions, I just picked them up because Portland doesn't have an NFL team (Seattle is the closest, but it's not "my home" so it doesn't count).  The exact reasons why are beside the point right now.

I guess what I'm saying is, I'll stick by the Blazers through thick and thin.  I stuck with them through all the Jailblazer years and through their recent run of not making the playoffs, including a year with the worst record in the NBA.  I stick with them because they represent my home, and therefore me.  I may stop following the NBA altogether some day, but if I follow the NBA, I root for the Blazers.

With the Lions, I guess the only thign that's kept me a fan in plain old loyalty.  I've even got DirecTV, just so I could get NFL Sunday Ticket, just so I could watch the Lions for most of the past decade (seriously, 18 months ago I moved in to an apartment that can't get DirecTV and I haven't even bothered getting any kind of sattelite or cable TV, the Lions were the main reason I had TV service at all).  I sucked it up through the tough times.  I joined in on the fire Millen chants.  I even went along with the whole "the Lions need 0-16 to finally hit rock bottom so we can start building our way back up" thing, but I'm losing hope.

Even if Stafford does pan out, we're probably going to need to go through a few more years of sucking to find out.  A few more years of watching poor QB play, to maybe have a good QB, or maybe find out we're screwed for four years at $10 million a pop with Joey Harrington 2. It's such a boom or bust pick, and now we as fans need to go in to "well maybe he'll pan out later, we need to give him the benefit of the doubt for a few more years" mode.  Why take a risk on somebody that's not really considered to be a super-stud QB prospect when the downside is all but ensuring four more years with a crappy team?

Seriously, what's wrong with just picking the guy who fills one of our biggest needs and is pretty sure to at least be a solid contributer for years to come?