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Detroit Lions Final Roster Prediction

For the past couple of years I have posted a few different roster predictions after training camp began to give readers an idea of who could end up surviving the final round of cuts.  I have held off on doing that for this year until now mainly because this is the first time the new front-office and new coaching staff will put together the Lions' 53-man roster.  Last year, for example, I had previous years' final rosters to go off of, giving me an outline to follow as far as how many players at each position would make the team.  I obviously still had to predict which players would fill those slots, but I at least had an idea of how many at each position would be on the 53-man roster.

The reason I'm explaining all of this is because I really struggled with how many players at each position will make the team more than anything.  I have a pretty solid idea of which players should make the team, but I'm still struggling a bit with determining how many from each position will make the cut.  Regardless, I went ahead and made my predictions, which can be found after the jump.

Star-divide

(One disclaimer: I imagine the Lions' final roster will include a couple players who are on other teams right now.  That happens every year and is tough to predict, so I just went off of who is actually on the team right now.)

Quarterback

Make the team: Daunte Culpepper, Matthew Stafford, Drew Stanton

Cut: None

Some teams only carry two quarterbacks, but I don't think the Lions will do that.  We have seen that they have three quarterbacks on the team who can get the job done, and with the recent injuries to Culpepper and Stanton, the more the merrier simply for depth reasons.  Chances are Stanton won't see the field unless the Lions really get bit by the injury bug, but I don't see any reason to let him go just yet.

Running Back

Make the team: Kevin Smith, Maurice Morris, Aaron Brown

Cut: Aveion Cason, Tristan Davis

I think most Lions fans chose Brown over Cason for the Lions' third running back the second Brown scored his first touchdown against Atlanta.  Cason is versatile and does well on special teams (on coverage, that is), but Brown has more potential.  He has a lot of things he can improve on, but we have seen how athletic he is.  I guess I could see both Cason and Brown making the team, but only if the Lions decide to take one fullback, which I don't see happening.

Fullback

Make the team: Jerome Felton, Terrelle Smith

Cut: None

Felton is in for sure, as he is a bruiser as a blocker and a runner.  He is versatile in that sense and gives the Lions a big back who can get the ball in short-yardage situations and move the chains or power his way into the end zone.  Smith, on the other hand, is a good blocker who has experience.  To me, he will help determine Cason's status with the Lions.  If Smith makes the team, giving the Lions two fullbacks, I think they will cut Cason.  They could decide that Felton is enough and keep Cason because he contributes on special teams, but I just have a hard time keeping Cason around.

Wide Receiver

Make the team: Calvin Johnson, Bryant Johnson, Dennis Northcutt, Derrick Williams, Dane Looker

Cut: John Standeford, Keary Colbert, Adam Jennings, Glenn Holt

This was a tough position to evaluate.  The Lions' receivers have either been injured or struggling to catch the ball throughout training camp, and it's tough to say just how many will be on the 53-man roster.  Part of what makes it tough to predict is factoring in the tight end position.  The Lions have quite a few quality tight ends, and I could see them keeping four on the active roster.  If that doesn't happen, as I predict, then Looker will make the team as the fifth receiver.  I think it will come down to him and Standeford, and it's tough for me to cut Looker after how well he did at kicker during practice last week.  Okay, there's more to it than that.  Standeford had a case of butterfingers early on in the preseason, and while he has gotten better as time went on, Looker looked a little more sure-handed from what I have watched.  This is probably my least confident pick on the entire roster, as these two players are very similar.

Tight End

Make the team: Brandon Pettigrew, Will Heller, Casey FitzSimmons

Cut: Dan Gronkowski, Carson Butler

As mentioned above, I wouldn't be surprised if the Lions kept four tight ends on the active roster.  Gronkowski will probably make the cut if that ends up being the case.  As well as Butler has played since joining the team, Gronkowski has excellent hands and is likely a better blocker (based on what I know about Butler from his Michigan days).  I thought about moving FitzSimmons to the cut list and putting Gronkowski on the active roster, but I think FitzSimmons has enough experience and versatility to keep a spot on the team this year.

Offensive Tackle

Make the team: Jeff Backus, Gosder Cherilus, Jon Jansen, Ephraim Salaam

Cut: Lydon Murtha

This was a fairly easy position to assess.  Backus and Cherilus are the starters and Jansen and Salaam are the veteran backups.  Murtha is bound for the practice squad.

Offensive Guard

Make the team: Manny Ramirez, Stephen Peterman, Daniel Loper

Cut: Terrence Metcalf, Milford Brown

Peterman is this team's starter at right guard and Ramirez and Loper are battling it out for the starting spot at left guard.  With other offensive linemen being versatile, there is really no need to keep any of the other guards on the roster.

Center

Make the team: Dominic Raiola

Cut: Dylan Gandy, Dan Gerberry

The same goes for the center position.  Beyond Raiola, there just isn't a need to keep any other centers on the team.

Defensive End

Make the team: Cliff Avril, Dewayne White, Ikaika Alama-Francis, Jason Hunter

Cut: Sean Conover, Orion Martin

The defensive line is very interesting as far as how many players will make the team.  At defensive end, I'm confident that it will only be the four listed above, which made this a fairly easy position to predict.

Defensive Tackle

Make the team: Shaun Smith, Andre Fluellen, Grady Jackson, Sammie Hill, Landon Cohen, Chuck Darby

Cut: Orien Harris

Defensive tackle was the complete opposite.  I wasn't sure how many players I should put on the active roster, so in the end I kept all but one.  Even then I was still thinking about whether I should add Harris to the 53-man roster; the Lions did trade for him after all.  You would almost think that the Lions were in good shape depth-wise at DT.  While they do have a solid list of players at DT, they are all pretty even as far as talent goes.  That is what made it so tough to predict how many and which ones will make the team.  If six end up on the 53-man roster, then that would give the Lions ten defensive lineman.  Depending on what they do at a few other positions, I could see every defensive tackle surviving the final round of cuts.

Linebacker

Make the team: Ernie Sims, Larry Foote, Julian Peterson, Jordon Dizon, Darnell Bing, DeAndre Levy, Zack Follett

Cut: Rufus Alexander, Spenser Smith

One way a spot on the team could open up for someone like Orien Harris is if a player who is expected to make the team gets injured to the point where he has to head to the IR.  At this time last week it sounded like that could happen to Darnell Bing, but he played against Indianapolis.  Assuming he stays healthy, I think he will be on the active roster.  I had to think for a second about whether or not Follett will make the team, but I think he is too good on special teams to keep off the 53-man roster.

Cornerback

Make the team: Phillip Buchanon, Anthony Henry, Eric King, William James, Keith Smith

Cut: Ramzee Robinson, Chris Roberson

Based on the fact that King and James started in place of Buchanon and Henry, I think we know what the Lions' top four is at cornerback.  After that it was between Smith and Robinson for the fifth CB spot.  Like other positions, I could see a situation happening where the Lions keep both Smith and Robinson, but based on how I filled out the rest of my prediction, there wasn't enough room for six corners.

Safety

Make the team: Louis Delmas, Kalvin Pearson, Stuart Schweigert, Marquand Manuel

Cut: Calvin Lowry

Considering the Lions hosted Lawyer Milloy for a visit yesterday, that tells me that they aren't totally satisfied with their safeties.  Even so, it's pretty obvious who the four are that will make the team.  I'd be inclined to only keep three on the roster if the safeties had played better as a whole in the preseason so far, but since there are still question marks, I figure added depth is a better idea.

Special Teams

Make the team: Jason Hanson, Nick Harris, Don Muhlbach

Cut: Billy Cundiff

There's not much to say here.  As long as Hanson is ready for the regular season, only three specialists will be on the team.  It would suck to have to waste a roster spot on a second kicker, but even if that happened, it would only be temporary.

Overall

As I explained in the intro to this post, it will be much easier to make a roster prediction a year from now.  We will know how many players the Lions like to keep at each position enough to have a general outline to follow.  Obviously there are always going to be variables that change from year to year, but in 2010 it should just be filling set spots with players. 

Keeping that in mind, let me know what you think about some of these battles for spots on the team as well as some of the positions that have a flexible number as far as how many players will make the team.  And if you are so inclined, post your roster prediction.

1 recs  |  Comment 36 comments |

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Meh..

I like Standeford over Looker. I also really don’t want Gronkowski to get cut…

by ZWC11 on Sep 1, 2009 3:29 AM EDT reply actions  

That's why WR was so tough for me

Standeford and Looker are pretty even, and I could see the former making the team.

I am with you on Gronkowski, too. I’d like to see as many rookies make the team, but I think he will be here at some point in the season even if he is cut. With FitzSimmons, there’s always the chance of injury, and I think that will likely be Gronkowski’s opening at some point.

Pride of Detroit, SB Nation's Lions Blog

by Sean Yuille on Sep 1, 2009 3:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

Gronkowski

I would be worried that someone would pick him up if we cut him and there wouldn’t be a next year.

by wingnut91 on Sep 1, 2009 7:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not to be a downer...

…but its not exactly like Pettigrew has been injury free in his very early career as a Pro either. Between Pettigrew and FitzSimmons, I could definitely see Gronkowski as a priority for the practice squad. That is, unless, someone actually offers him a spot on the active roster (seems unlikely if he wouldn’t make the Lions active roster).

by Mushy on Sep 1, 2009 7:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

They look even, except Standleford is younger and taller....

so…all thing even…keep the taller younger guy

http://cmufootball.blogspot.com/

by CapitolLions on Sep 1, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree

those were the only two I might question, I could see Looker beating out Standeford, but if you look at Standeford as a whole and not just his preseason I think he’s a little more sure handed. I like Fitz also but he’s had 3 years to make some noise and it’s time for Gronkowski.

by msivits on Sep 1, 2009 5:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think those predictions are pretty spot on

I’d be surprised if it wasn’t close to that. I’m actually fairly anxious about the 53-man cut, should be very interesting.

2009 = The start of the Lions Golden Age (We hope).

by Hyperion Ecta on Sep 1, 2009 3:46 AM EDT reply actions  

Curious about the OL

Have any of the reserves ever played Center? It seems like at least one of the reserves would have to be one of those versatile OL that can play any position on the line.
 
I also have one of those sick feelings in my stomache about Cason. Brown is clearly the more explosive player, but he has made some glaring mistakes (both route/assignment related) in the two games that I’ve seen.

While you’re probably right on with the DL, I just can’t believe we’re stuck with 10DL again. I ripped Maranelli hard for keeping 11 last season, but this isn’t a whole lot better. This makes me wish more and more that they had addressed the position in the draft.

by Mushy on Sep 1, 2009 8:02 AM EDT reply actions  

I have the same concerns...

     About the Cason, Brown roster spot. Brown has made his share of mistakes. I like to think they are just Rookie mistakes. But Cason has had his share of chances to stand out.
     I am also curious about the back up Center spot. and the O line as a whole. It seems much improved over last season. just typing that makes me smile.

by All The Time Lion on Sep 1, 2009 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

I just mentioned the o-line

below as I didint read all the posts 1st…..I think they will carry one less dline and one more onlie

by BennieBladesFan on Sep 1, 2009 9:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

Great post Sean

I would hope of those you cut the following do make the team:

1.) Ramzee Robinson – its hard to beleive he has made it this long. There must be something there.

2.) Carson Butler – I’m likely in the minority here but he’s aggressive and has talent. We need more guys like him.

I was wondering, with the current news about Stanton (swollen knee) and CPep (cut toe or something) are you thinking the Lions are actively searching for a QB – at the very least for the Bills game or potentially for a longer-term deal?

by NYCLionsfan on Sep 1, 2009 8:45 AM EDT reply actions  

Butler and Gronkowski are equal.....

….And gronkowski is good on special teams and a better blocker.

by BennieBladesFan on Sep 1, 2009 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

Sean....

…..the will carry more the 7 offensive lineman…..Theyve got to have someone that can play backup center and none of the backup guys can play that poistion.

by BennieBladesFan on Sep 1, 2009 9:18 AM EDT reply actions  

Scary Close

Sean, I had just posted my predictions as well at my blog (http://ascavis.blogspot.com/) and we were only different in a few spots.

1) C – I think they’ll keep Gerberry to back up Dom
2) DT – I think they will cut S. Smith
3) TE – They keep Gronkowski and waive bye-bye to Fitzsimmons

Other than those I agree 100%..spot on brother.

by MAC AttaK on Sep 1, 2009 10:09 AM EDT reply actions  

no way the Lions will cut Shaun Smith, if they cut any of those DTs Sean has keeping, its Chuck Darby

by sJe on Sep 1, 2009 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed

Smith will be on the team.

2009 = The start of the Lions Golden Age (We hope).

by Hyperion Ecta on Sep 1, 2009 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

very good job,

I think that, with his play in the last two games, Will James is competing for the cut with Ramzee and Smith

by myPride on Sep 1, 2009 10:46 AM EDT reply actions  

Tristan Davis

Davis looks to have loads of potential, I’d like to see him on the practice squad this year. When one of our RB’s gets hurt, I’d be interested to see what he does with an opportunity.

by sJe on Sep 1, 2009 11:00 AM EDT reply actions  

He was always a budding star at Auburn, but caught the injury bug far too often. He’s a short, powerful, fast (4.38), and talented guy that I think, given the opportunity could be a good #2 back for a lot of teams.

by sJe on Sep 1, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Given they signed Bollinger, does that mean that Stanton is bound for the practice squad or IR definitely? I thought an arthroscopic knee surgery is not that serious.

by sJe on Sep 1, 2009 11:28 AM EDT reply actions  

Stanton on the IR again

This is four straight years( including his senior season at MSU) of being injured. I really liked him at MSU. I tried to root for him this season in the preseason. But, I kmew it was just a matter of time. Before he would get injured. Strange thing is. It always seems to be something different.

Well, I wish him the best of luck.

by JCruize on Sep 1, 2009 11:36 AM EDT reply actions  

people are all over Rod Hoods hog...what the heck

He was cut by cleveland folks…must be a good reason, Cleveland is worse than us.

http://cmufootball.blogspot.com/

by CapitolLions on Sep 1, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

53-man roster

the only thing i disagree with is i would keep r.robinson and let c.darby go,he wont even play we have 2 see what A.Fluellen,L.Cohen,andS.Hill can do

by lionslover313 on Sep 1, 2009 3:17 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm on the give gronkowski a chancebandwagon...

He looks like he has the skills, he just needs to develop, fitz has had his chance and has proven to be mediocre at best..

I loved standeford when he came in last year. Seems in the offseason he got lazy or something. I was pissed to see how bad he has played in the pre-season.

by MatthewDC on Sep 1, 2009 3:26 PM EDT reply actions  

I'd Go Younger and Cheaper in a few more spots.

Sean, nice job on the roster projection overall. Many of your predictions make some sense. My only real contention is we won’t be very good this season, let’s be honest (LOL). 5 wins would be a decent season and a step in the right direction. With that in mind, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Schwartz cut some high priced veterans in favor of younger, cheaper players. Some examples would be keeping DT Orien Harris over 10 yr veteran DT Chuck Darby and keeping CB Chris Roberson or CB Ramzee Robinson over CB Keith Smith (fairly expensive for a #4 CB).
The only other differences I’d have would be keeping WR Standeford over Looker. Looker is a bit more proven and versatile (he can kick field goals) but he’s very injury prone in my opinion. Keeping Orion Martin but putting him at OLB as Julian Peterson’s understudy is also an interesting possibility.
You bring up a valid point in potentially cutting TE Fitzsimmons in order to keep your draftee in TE Gronkowski as well. I’d hate to see it because I think Fitz is a decent reserve TE and a quality special teamer but he has been hurt for much of camp and the preseason and Schwartz has shown almost zero tolerance for injuries by cutting injured players.
As you mentioned, it’ll be interesting to see who they’re able to stash on the practice squad after they clear waivers. OT Murtha, G/C Gerberry, TEs Gronkowski and Butler and DE/OLB Martin would be the prime candidates in my opinion. Keep up the good work and here’s to the Lions getting a win early in the regular season to get that frickin’ O-16 monkey of their back!

W

by Wellvis on Sep 1, 2009 5:10 PM EDT reply actions  

I think Murtha stays and Salaam goes. Murtha’s been having an excellent preseason.

Thank you.

by TCLion on Sep 1, 2009 11:20 PM EDT reply actions  

I like Tristan Davis a lot

A practice squad guy for sure.

Is it just me or do we all of a sudden have a lot of linebacker depth? Best position on the roster by far I think.

http://lifeondumars.com/

by wennington on Sep 2, 2009 1:14 AM EDT reply actions  

6 dts?

i dont think they will carry 6 DTs, but only three guards.
i say shaun smiths gets cut, but milford brown makes it

by latif on Sep 2, 2009 7:56 PM EDT reply actions  

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