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Now that we’re days away from the Lions’ first game of the season, it is finally that time.  We’ve spent the last nine months contemplating draft picks, scouring the free-agent waiver wire, making premature predictions, and sometimes even contemplating next year’s draft (why?).  But now that we have all the information we could possibly have before the season starts, it’s time to come up with some serious predictions.  Here’s what you can and cannot expect from the Lions in 2009.

Offense

It’s now official that Matthew Stafford will be heading the offense this season.  The dawn on a new era is near and it promises to be an entertaining one.  With new offensive coordinator Scott Linehan leading the group, I’m eager to see how successful this unit will be.

There are many reasons to be optimistic about the offense.  Calvin Johnson returns healthy and with a year’s more experience under his belt.  Kevin Smith looked awfully impressive in the preseason and has been raved about in camp.  The Lions are also talking up their offensive line and how they are much more aggressive under Linehan.  So far, it has shown, with the Lions racking up an average of 173 rushing yards per game in the preseason.  If they can carry this effort into the regular season, this offense will be one of the most dangerous in the league (I’m super serial guys!).

The Lions will only be adding four new players to the starting lineup (Stafford, Bryant Johnson, Daniel Loper and Brandon Pettigrew), but these four could change this team drastically.  Stafford’s impact could be limitless.  He has shown he can be a game-changer with an impressive arm and great reads.  What impressed me most of his play in the preseason was his ability to pick up third downs (especially those of 7 yards or more).  B. Johnson will serve as a decent second option to Megatron.  Loper should provide the much needed help that Jeff Backus has been missing the past couple years.

However, some issues still persist.  The pass protection is still very much under question.  The biggest warning sign came in the last preseason game.  In Stafford’s first drive of the game, he was sacked, had a touchdown called back because of a holding penalty, and was strip sacked.  The good news is that that drive managed to still be somewhat successful (the Lions moved the ball from their own 8 yard line to Buffalo’s 22).  The bad news is that they came up empty handed and endangered Stafford.  Pass protection is going to need to improve drastically if Stafford is going to make it through the season.  Additionally, Stafford is still a rookie, and things will most likely be ugly at times.  We’ve seen a hint of that from the preseason (see: here and here @2:30).  But, from what I’ve seen, Stafford is not making poor reads, he’s simply over-trusting his arm*. Once he figures out what is and what is not possible in the NFL, he’s likely to be a much improved quarterback.  Still, there is bound to be some growing pains that will leave Lions fans wondering if he was the right draft pick.  But, be patient.

*The interception thrown at Cleveland is the one exception

Offensive predictions:

• Matt Stafford will have a touchdown: interception ratio very close to 1:1. I’ll say 23:24.
• Kevin Smith (presuming a healthy year) will average 4.4 a carry and gets in the end zone 10 times.
• Calvin Johnson will lead the league (handily) in receptions of 20+ yards.
• Lions will continue to be in the bottom ten in sacks allowed.
• The Lions finish in the top ten in total yards.

Defense

While there’s a plethora of reasons to be optimistic about the offense, the defense promises to be extremely frustrating for the hundredth year in a row.  Though the dreadful Tampa-2 defense has been obliterated by new defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham, the lack of talent still remains.  The Lions only bring back three starters from last year, but their new supporting cast isn’t much improved.  True, the Lions have added veteran linebackers Julian Peterson and Larry Foote.  However, the secondary and the defensive line remain huge problems that have already kept me awake at night.

Louis Delmas will be exciting to watch this season, but fears are already starting to rise that he is too focused on the big hit and not enough on making sure a tackle is made.  It’s way too early to deem the kid overhyped, but it’ll be interesting to watch his progression through the year.  If he plays his cards right, he really could be the next Bob Sanders (without the injuries, knock on wood).

The deciding factor as to whether this unit will succeed is quarterback pressure.  Cunningham brings an aggressive game plan to the table, promising a healthy dose of blitzing.  But given the poor talent on the line, it’s hard to imagine blitzes being extremely successful.  Rod Marinelli promised more blitzing last year, and the Lions weren’t any more successful at getting to the quarterback afterwards.

But if Cunningham is successful with his blitzing schemes, it could turn this defense into a mediocre threat.  Good pressure will lead to more turnovers.  And the Lions will be at their best when the offense is on the field.  If the Lions manage to create a very high number of turnovers, they really have a chance to be decent this year.  But even if they force an average amount of turnovers, it won’t be enough to stop opponents from putting up major points.

And, of course, blitzing doesn’t come without a price.  The Lions will most likely be very vulnerable to the big play this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple of 70-yard touchdown runs right by blitzing linebackers.

Defensive predictions:

• Ernie Sims will lead the team in tackles, followed by Louis Delmas.
• The Lions will get more sacks out of their linebackers and secondary (combined) than they will from the front four.
• The Lions will finish in the bottom three in passing defense, and in the bottom five in interceptions.
• Favre throws nearly half of the Lions’ intercepted passes on the season.

Overall

With a rookie quarterback at the helm, coming up with an overall prediction becomes difficult.  Can Stafford bring the success that Matt Ryan did last year for the Falcons?  Or will he have a more ominous start, like Peyton Manning’s dismal 3-13 rookie season?  While the running game looks to be much improved, the defense is still an extreme liability.  And while I think this team has a ceiling of a competitive .500 team, it is much more likely that they’ll be closer to 3-13.  The NFC North had an amazing offseason, and promises to be an entertaining bunch of teams.  Unfortunately, that means six games on the Lions schedule have gotten more difficult than they were nine months ago.  Having to deal with Brett Favre, Jay Cutler and Adrian Peterson on a bi-seasonal basis is brutal.  In the end, the Lions are going to look like a new team, but with some of the same old tendencies.  I see a 5-11 season on the horizon (wins: Minnesota, St. Louis, @Seattle, @Cincinatti, @San Francisco).

And for the fun of it, here are the rest of my NFC North predictions:

NFC North:

Packers: 11-5 - Aaron Rodgers takes a step towards become a top tier quarterback.  This team looks scary and could very well win the entire NFC.

Minnesota: 9-7 - Favre makes this team complete, but for how long?

Chicago: 8-8 - Cutler makes this team much better, but he really needs some weapons around him.

Detroit: 5-11 - Improving from last year by five wins is a big deal, even if you’re adding to zero.

What are your bold predictions for the year?