On Paper: Saints vs.Lions

http://www.studyofsports.com/?p=2777

On Paper is a new segment where I take a look at the Lions' weekly matchup and dissect each unit.  At the end of each unit summary, instead of giving a typical "Advantage Lions" or "Advantage New Orleans", I award one of the teams with a point value of 1-5 (or give it a draw).  These point values are based both on talent and the influence that this unit matchup will have on the game outcome.  In other words, if there is a big discrepancy in talent in New Orleans' passing game and Detroit's passing defense (there is), and I expect the Saints to throw the ball often (they will), that will result in a large number.  However, if there is a big gap in talent, but I don't expect it to be a game changer, the value will be low.  So don't expect to see any special teams values of four or five, unless a team has six Devin Hesters going against ten Aveion Casons.  At the end, I'll add up the numbers and it should give some insight to the final result of the game.

Detroit Passing Offense vs. New Orleans passing defense

In what promises to be the most exciting part of the Lions team this year, the passing offense looks to have many weapons.  The biggest weapon, Calvin Johnson, will be an elite wide receiver this year.  Alongside him are newly acquired Bryant Johnson and slot receiver Dennis Northcutt.  Both are solid options, but we didn't get a good look of them in the preseason to see how they'll fit into this offense.  Oh yeah, they have this guy named Matthew Stafford, too. 

Although New Orleans struggled with pass defense last year (ranked 10th worst), they completely revamped their secondary in the offseason.  The Saints picked up S Darren Sharper and CB Jabari Greer, who many Lions fans begged for in the offseason.  Sharper, who is entering his 13th season, is on the decline, but brings a veteran mind to the table.  Greer should improve this unit, although is not considered a shut-down corner.  The Saints also drafted CB Malcolm Jenkins in the draft.  He'll be an impact player down the line, but on Sunday, according to beat-writer Jeff Duncan, he will only contribute on special teams.

In terms of quarterback pressure, the Lions have to worry about two solid defensive ends in Will Smith and Charles Grant.  Smith (a one-time pro bowler) will line up against Jeff Backus and promises to keep him busy.  Prior to last season, Smith averaged over eight sacks a season.  Last year he struggled and only finished with three but could easily rebound this year.  Similarly, Grant was once a double-digit sacker, but in the last four years, he hasn't amassed more than six in a single season.  Second-year Gosder Cherilus may be able to contain him. 

Overview:  The Saints pressure does not worry me too much in this matchup.  The Saints' secondary promises to be better than last year, but there is no defense for Calvin Johnson.   Stafford's first professional game is a pretty good matchup.  The Saints are going to come after him, but they don't have a ton of weapons to blitz effectively, so Stafford may be able to stay on his feet for most of the day.  He'll likely make an ugly mistake or two, but I expect him to be able to move the ball fairly well through the air.  The Lions get a +1.  It could be more, but I expect the Lions run game to be more important to this offense on Sunday.

Detroit Rushing Offense vs. New Orleans Rushing Defense

Kevin Smith looked solid in the preseason, as did the offensive line (in run blocking).  The Lions suffer a minor blow as RG Stephen Peterman didn't practice on Friday and is likely out (listed as questionable).  Manny Ramirez (not that one) would take his place, and is not really a huge step down in talent. 

However, the Saints have a big force in DT Sedrick Ellis that could cause him some trouble.  Ellis is not huge at 6'1" 307, but proved he can be disruptive in his rookie season with four sacks in 13 games. 

The Saints linebacking core is not overly impressive.  Jonathan Vilma in the middle is impressive, but their outside linebackers leave something to be desired.  If Smith breaks into the second level, he could turn a four yard gain into 15. 

Overview:  The Lions will likely try to control the clock and keep Drew Brees out of the game by hammering the Saints' rush defense.  If the Lions can contain Ellis with effective double teams, this might actually possible.  The matchup isn't ideal, but if all things go right, this could be a huge advantage for the Lions.  Since I'm still not sold on the offensive line, I'll give the Lions a modest +2 in this category.

NO Pass Offense vs. Detroit Pass D

I could beat you to death with all the amazing stats that Brees put up last year, but we all know how great he is.  This matchup is a game-killer for the Lions.  Brees and his solid crew of receivers aside, perhaps the most impressive part of the Saints offense is their protection.  In the past two years, the Saints have attempted the most passes while allowing the least amount of sacks.  This is troubling news for a defensive line who has struggled to put pressure on the quarterback throughout the preseason. 

Gunther Cunningham's only option as defensive coordinator is to bring the heat as much as possible.  He does have a reputation as an aggressive play caller, but even he will have to step it up a notch to find success on Sunday.  One point of attack Cunningham should consider is the left tackle position, where starter Jammal Brown is sidelined after undergoing hip surgery.  Still, the Lions have yet to get consistent pressure from DEs Cliff Avril and DeWayne White.

Perhaps the only silver lining for Detroit is Phillip Buchanon, who intercepted Brees twice last season, including a pick six (seen here).  However, both of these picks were the result of quarterback pressure, and not particularly great coverage by Buchanon.  Also, Buchanon is listed as questionable for Sunday, though I think he'll play.

Overview:  This is going to be ugly.  The Lions have had a terrible pass defense for the last few years, and although they have more threats this year (like Louis Delmas), it won't be enough for the best passing threat in the league.  The Saints will put the ball up early and often, and unless Cunningham comes up with a magical playbook, they're going to succeed.   I'd be shocked if Brees doesn't put up at least 330 yards through the air.  Saints +5.

NO Rush Offense vs. Detroit Rush Defense

The Lions catch a break, as Pierre Thomas lost his battle with a fence this week and is out.  Former Bronco Mike Bell takes his place and should see a number of carries.  Bell doesn't pose much of a threat, but I hear this Reggie Bush guy is kind of good.  Although his rushing abilities are still under question, the Lions still have to worry about his big play ability. 

The Lions counter with a poor defensive line, but much improved linebackers.  The interior line features new addition Grady Jackson, who will be a force, but his age prevents him from being an every down player.  According to the official depth chart, rookie Sammie Lee Hill will line up next to him.  Although I don't put much credence into this depth chart, it is a bit surprising that the big man out of Stillman College is considered starting material on this roster.  Hill's last regular season game was against powerhouse Fort Valley State. 

The linebackers, however, may do a good job filling the gaps left by the defensive line.  Ernie Sims has the potential to have a big day, as he can now roam free with solid linebackers aside him. 

Overview: Though the Lions may have a slight advantage due to Thomas' injury, this matchup is likely a non-factor.  The Saints will run the ball rarely.  The only way this matchup comes into play is if the Lions need a stop in the fourth quarter and the Saints stupidly try to run the clock out.  Therefore the matchup is a push: 0.

Special Teams

The Lions don't really know what's going on with their special teams unit.  Derrick Williams was drafted for his punt return abilities, but literally dropped the ball when given the opportunity to show off his skills.  If healthy, Buchanon will take his spot, if not Northcutt will likely assume the role.  The Lions appear to have a legitimate threat with Aaron Brown returning kicks.  Though he hasn't broken one free, he has proven that he has breakaway speed when playing the running back in the preseason. 

Bush will return punts for the Saints, which should give Lions fans heart attacks.  Lions kick/punt coverage has been notoriously bad for the last years.  Special Teams coach Stan Kwan has become synonymous with death.  The Lions look like they'll struggle again this year, as they allowed Roscoe Parrish to return a kickoff and a punt for a touchdown in a preseason game (kickoff was called back). 

The Saints welcome back John Carney as their kicker, after playing around with a couple different kickers last season.  Carney is solid enough to not have to worry about him, as is the Lions' counterpart Jason Hanson.  Hanson is coming off a leg injury, but should be ready to go on Sunday.

Overview:  The Saints get the slight advantage because of Bush and Stan Kwan.  Bush has a chance to break one, but it's almost impossible to predict.  Saints +1.

Total:

Saints end up a +3 after all is said and done: a much lower total than I was expecting.  The Lions do have a chance in this game if they control the clock, much like they did in the preseason game against the pass-heavy Colts.  Keeping Brees off the field should be the Lions #1 priority coming into Sunday.  However, when Brees eventually gets on the field, things will get ugly.  The only shot the Lions have on Sunday is to pressure Brees into turning the ball over.  If the Lions come out of the game with a turnover margin of +2 or +3 or +30, they have a chance.  However, if Stafford struggles early or turns the ball over himself, this game could end in the first quarter, much like last year. 

Bascially, I see two possible scenarios of this game. 

1.      The Lions control the clock and put up a good amount of points.  But when they need a stop in the fourth quarter, they don't get it and lose by a possession.

2.      The Lions struggle out of the gate and Stafford looks flustered.  They give up a big deficit in the first quarter, abandon the running game, and are never able to recover.

So my prediction is 27-21 or 38-17 Saints.  Copout?  Probably.  But it's the first week of the season.