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PROBABILITY - A Reason for Optimism

I came across another very interesting article, written by a well known statistician from Detroit named William M. Briggs.  The article asks, and subsequently answers, the question "What is the probability the Detroit Lions lose every game (again!)?".  Everyone here, who is a Lions fan, should be very happy with the results of the study he conducted, as it pretty much says that we have less than a 1% chance of losing every single game again this year.  The article also shows the probability of winning and the odds against winning for 1-16 games, with multiple sets of data.  It is a great read, and the author does a great job explaining how he arrived at the conclusions.  He does conclude that we do not have a very reasonable chance of a winning season, but winning six or seven games is not only possible, but even relatively probable.  Here is the link to that article:

http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=1028

Star-divide

Look guys.....I am posting this because a lot of good people here are getting tired of all of the negativity that is going around.  I realize that I may have contributed to some of it, but definitely not all of it.  Even though I do not see eye to eye with a lot of people on various issues, does not mean that I do not like them or that I want them to quit posting here so I do not have to read what they have to say.  I think we all need to come back to the common ground here, which is the fact that we all love the Lions and want them to succeed.  The probability that we will win some games is on our side, regardless of the fact that we have a rookie QB starting and a completely overhauled team (in all actuality that probably adds to the likelihood that we will win some games). 

This is what I propose.  I propose that we all take a minute to realize that we are here to show our love for a football team, among others who share that love, and that the negativity, arguing, pessimism, and bickering are doing none of us any bit of good.  We all need to take a step back, stop telling others what to post and what not to post, and generally calm down.  It is ok for everyone to express their opinion, their disappointment, and even their wants, desires, hopes, and dreams related to the Lions.  If someone posts something that you do not like as an individual, just skip it!  Please, move on to something else.  It will save us all a lot of stress that we probably do not need.  Not only do derogatory comments, insults, and belittling statements hurt, and not only does negativity, arguing, and becoming angry to the point of vulgarity just cause more bad feelings, but also these things are not conducive to what it means to be a football fan!  Like my friend LondonLion said in another thread "Do unto others as you wish to be done onto you".

Sean, I know that you planned to post something like this at some point during the week, so I hope I am not stepping on your toes.  I just figured it fit well in my post right here and right now, and I figured it would save you some time as well.  Please feel free to add to what I have said if you so choose, or write a completely different post if that is what you want to do.  POD.....I love the Lions.  I want what is best for them.  I want us to all be united in supporting our team.  Cheers!!

GOOOOOOOOOOOO LIOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!    

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Pride of Detroit or its writers. FanPosts are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable fans.

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This is why I had to take probability/statistics twice! That…and the professor was a douche who had single question exams with zero partial credit.
I’ve never believed it was possible to do it the first time. I jokingly rationalized the possibility with some friends when the schedule came out last year…but I was never that serious. After the Kitna “injury” I knew we were in trouble, but still 0-16? Never!
I still don’t believe it’s possible to do it again this season, but that’s more gut feeling than it is math. The one thing I DID learn in probability is that there is almost never a zero percent chance of anything…but it’s good to know that the odds of this happening again are worse than me winning the lottery. Of course if they play more games like they did against the Saints, I’ll be in line for some Mega Millions tickets!

by Mushy on Sep 24, 2009 7:57 PM EDT reply actions  

Exactly....

And even though we have already lost 2 games, there was a very minute chance that we would go 16-0….LOL….just to support your statement that there is never a zero % chance of anything. Even though the odds of that happening were around 100 million to 1, what the data says is that there was a chance! :o)

by KDawg on Sep 24, 2009 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

So your tellin me there's a chance!

So watcha goin to the airport for…flyin somewhere?

This is one of the best stupid movies of all time!

by Mushy on Sep 25, 2009 7:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

+1

GO LIONS! RESTORE THE ROAR!

by Twon82 on Sep 25, 2009 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

I completely agree about stepping back and looking for common ground

I mean, we are all huge Lions fans, we bleed blue and silver. But all this in-fighting has gone a little too far, I myself have chosen not to be a part of it, mainly because there was nothing I could add to the arguments that were not already said or at all productive. Like I said in one comment, I think we are just sick and tired of losing and that a win would do a lot to soothe all this bickering.

Negativity-wise, while I am a pretty big optimist when it comes to the Lions, I definitely don’t mind it when someone posts something negative. It’s important to gather the opinions of other’s and a negative one is just a valid as any.

Also, it’s nice to know that the chances of going this season without a win are very, very slim. However, it still doesn’t soothe my pain about all these losses. I mean, the last time I’ve felt the winning feeling during the regular season was way back in 2007, I still remember the game. I was following the gametracker on NFL.com and had to leave the room until the game ended since I thought we were gonna be pipped at the post. That seems like an age ago now. I just wanna have that winning feeling again.

2009 = The start of the Lions Golden Age (We hope).

by Hyperion Ecta on Sep 24, 2009 8:10 PM EDT reply actions  

I agree....

We’ve definitely lost that winning feeling…..

by KDawg on Sep 24, 2009 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

On another note...

This is easily one of the creepiest movies of all times.

I don’t consider myself prejudice in any way…people’s personal sexual preferences are nobodies business but their own (Seinfeld). But this movie has generally disturbing undertones.

A shirtless, sweaty, posing contest cleverly disguised as a volleyball game all to the backdrop of a very appropriate, and no less disturbing, “PLAYING WITH THE BOYYYYS!” soundtrack. More shirtless, post shower locker room scenes in which Tom Cruise (standing on a hidden milk crate) faces off against Val Kilmer in what looks to be a scene involving an invisible wall, which, if not for the presence of, would almost certainly result in immediate liplock that would make Brokeback Mountain cowboys blush. I always felt bad for Meg Ryan as Goose was clearly just looking for an alternative release to his pent up sexually repressed feelings towards Iceman AND Maverick (it sucks being the third wheel). You can cut the homo-erotic sexual tension in this movie with a knife…and you guys thought it was about jet planes.

by Mushy on Sep 25, 2009 8:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

See...

ya never know what you’ll learn on POD.
I heard this joke years ago while I was in college. The next time it was on a group of jackasses (myself included) proceeded to drink two cases of Old Milwaukee and disect every possible scene for homosexual undertones.
Hey…I went to an engineering school in the frozen Tundra of the U.P., there’s not a lot to do up there, and even less girls. You can only play “Drinking Star Wars” so many times

by Mushy on Sep 25, 2009 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

Drinking Star Wars?

2009 = The start of the Lions Golden Age (We hope).

by Hyperion Ecta on Sep 25, 2009 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah.

You probably don’t wanna know…but there are instructions online.

by Mushy on Sep 28, 2009 7:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

Sounds like you have the repressed feelings. Joking BUT..

I loved this movie! Everyone has the right to their own opinions and sexual life styles but I never thought twice about the volleyball scene. Until Bill Simmons brought it up in one of his columns. And the locker room atmosphere is typical for any organized team. Sports, Military etc. etc.

I mean it has one of the most famous "love" scenes/love songs in cinema history! And i’m not talking about Great Balls of Fire!

Man invented language to satisfy his deep need to complain. Lily Tomlin

by Leapin Lion on Sep 25, 2009 8:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

Tom Cruise - Kelly McGillis Love Scene

Famous scene…absolutely, it shows the lengths Maverick would go to just to get back up in that jet…the only place he feels free of all the earthly pressures to conform…especially in the military! Don’t ask…don’t tell Flyboy!
Of course, if you’re gonna wear a beard, Charlotte “Charlie” Blackwood is certainly not a bad one. Hubba Hubba! No wonder Goose does himself in, he’s already got Iceman to compete with and now this Hot Blonde is trying to flip his pilot…it’s just too much!

This is of course 100% a joke. I certainly mean no offense to the Air Force, Navy, or any other members of the military and in fact have nothing but the utmost respect for those who fight for my freedom to make such poor jokes.

by Mushy on Sep 25, 2009 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

lol

Man invented language to satisfy his deep need to complain. Lily Tomlin

by Leapin Lion on Sep 27, 2009 7:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

LMAO

Thats pretty good bro. No offense taken. My unit used to joke around about that crap all the time. We had a guy who we would have him scare our new guys that came to our unit by acting like the biggest flame. He was very convincing…..lol It was hilarious. No offense to anyone here who may be playing for the other team :)

by Usmarine0341 on Sep 27, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

That might be typical in the Navy (no offense to any squids that may be on here)

But there was none of this hang out in a towel and shoot the shit in the showerrooms or in a lockerroom type setting in the Marines. Gotta love Hollywood and their portrayal of the military. Half the crap you see is a far cry from reality.

by Usmarine0341 on Sep 27, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

That's not disturbing.....

THIS is disturbing…..(and I might point out downright hilarious too!)

by KDawg on Sep 27, 2009 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

RIP Farley!

That was one funny SOB!
Ah hell, RIP Swayze too. I’m not a big fan of any of his movies, but this sketch was so good it almost makes up for Ghost.

by Mushy on Sep 28, 2009 7:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

stats are a wonderful thing

if you’re good, you can get them to say whatever you want. the true beauty of them, is that they tell a story, in fact many stories. just remember, nothing is impossible. it may not be probable, but it is possible…and before any of you try to put words in my mouth as to where i am going with this…it is still possible that we go 14-2 :).

i think the collective ( i like that word lately) needs more of this right now…its a long season, a marathon not a sprint….and to get there just as the team must do, we must keep our focus where it needs to be. we need to keep our wits about us. although entirely possible, not necessarily probable, we could go 14-2 & in which case this becomes a mute point…but the likelyhood & probability is that this wasn’t our last loss of the season. so we can choose, look fort the positive, share our imo’s, defend our team…or implode on ourselves and really make for a long season.

i know if i was even the third string towel boy for the lions (which my God i’d love to do), i’d want to know that the team i was a part of had a fanbase with an undying support of it. i’d hate to come strolling through si.com to find an article to read posted on pod…(which is actually how i came to find the site originally) …come here & read the negativity. although a wake up call perhaps…like i wouldn’t feel bad enough as it is knowing in my head that we’re letting the fans down…but to read it in print where it can’t be taken back…sheesh. let alone being the starting “whatever position is the flavor of the week” & having screwed up in the last game. talk about a tough one to swallow. i spend enough time defending the lions as i am sure many of you have done…the last thing i think any of us want to do is to come here to defend them to…regardless of the point of view. the only point of view that matters is the great fandom known as POD.

PS…Kdawg…thanks for the quote…your my boy blue…and no i don’t mean to call you ralphie…lol…i meant in the fellow honalulu blue fan kind of way…never mind i’ll shut up now….other than to say…lets show the team the support we’d want through this time if we were the third string punter…or qb … or wr …or towel boy…or whatever. i can’t wait for the day we can all pull the steve young move & pull this damn monkey of a doughnut of our collective backs.

by londonlion on Sep 24, 2009 8:53 PM EDT reply actions  

I preached this statistical thing all last year...

and look what happened… lol. I kept siding with “reason” and the fact we would win a game because history and statistics were on our side. Then we went winless… go figure. Not that I am trying to rain on your optimism or anything….

But I agree that to go 0-16 again… would be a true statistical anomaly. And I also agree about the second half of your post and the Rodney King “can’t we all get along” stuff. I think everyone… including myself… needs to find some sort of perspective and expectations for this season or it’s gonna get really ugly really fast.

I think that both KDawg and I (and probably others) can attest to the fact that there are things in life that are so much more important than this silly little game we all love so much. I won’t belittle anyone’s passion for the sport and how important it can seem, but trust me… in the grand scheme… it is infinitesimally insignificant. But… even with all I’ve been through in the last few years and having the life perspective that I currently have… the Lions are still a huge part of my life. I still get overly-passionate about them and have to slap myself upside the head sometimes to get my mind in the right place. Passion is good, but it can be misplaced sometimes.

by DrewsLions on Sep 24, 2009 9:07 PM EDT reply actions  

my wife reminds me of just that misplacement

as i yell at the tv on sunday afternoons…and when i play madden. .. she says its odd…as a normally level headed guy, its the only time she sees me truly get worked up & angry. you can misplace it, but you can’t mistake that wonderful thing called passion.

by londonlion on Sep 24, 2009 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

You guys can talk about stats and probabilities all you want

But the facts remain the same we are headed down the exact same road we were on last year at this time. The odds are against us losing all of our games but I see us headed for a shot at the #1 overall draft pick again next year, all we have to do is lose to the rams later this year and we can wacth our front office draft another positional player that doesn’t warrant a #1 overall pick. And yes I’m refering to Staff.I like him and think 1 day he will be a good QB, but he WAS NOT worth the #1 overall draft pick. For that matter no Junior coming out of college is ever worth drafting #1.Unless you have the lions sitting there then as long as you had a descent year in school you are worth it.Can you guys feel my anger towards WCF growing?

by davis0169 on Sep 25, 2009 10:42 AM EDT reply actions  

Davis...

…you are skipping important steps in the annual emotions of Lions Fans.

1) Pre-Season : Assess the players you have, and determine who you will be pissed about if the Lions end up starting. Get over excited about how good they look in preseason as a whole. Tell yourself not to get too excited, voice opinions of that nature, secretly wish that you are wrong.
2) Start of the Season: Immediately overreact to poor play (although I think you nailed a part of this emotion). Also justify how you were right all along about who should have started. Go in to denial about how bad the team really is (see your skipping this part).
3) Mid Season: At this point the Lions are all but mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Accept how bad the team really is. It is now time to rant about who should get to play the rest of the season and NOW you can start grumbling about WCF.
4) 2nd Half of the Season: Discuss potential draft picks, free agents, unreasonable trades and team needs. Get angry with people who don’t agree with you and shift anger away from WCF to argue your points. Frustration mounting with each additional loss.
5) Off Season: This is our SuperBowl. High draft pick, lots of excitement, free agents, trades and so many things to discuss that anger is put on the back burner.
6) Draft, and pre-pre-season: Now you can be really angry at WCF again. They have completely blown it for the umpteenth time and the Lions will never win while the old man is still around. Mutter crazy things about him selling the team, and even crazier things about how “this is why Ford Motor co. is struggling so much too”.

FYI, this is not directed at any particular person nor a generalization about the majority of POD nation, but rather a synopsis of everything I’ve heard from most Lions fans over the course of the last 20 years. So to summarize-the emotional rollercoaster should go:
Tempered enthusiasm and anxiousness-dissapointment and denial-anger and acceptance-confusion, frustration, and more anger-Excitement-Angriest. Those are the emotional seasons of Lions fans.

by Mushy on Sep 25, 2009 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

lmao mushy

yeah you got it right bro, you have your finger on my pulse, and probably a few/many others around here. I still don’t understand why Jr. hasn’t declared him insane and put in a home. Or better yet a glue factory.

by davis0169 on Sep 25, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

Great stuff Mushy

Seems spot on to me.

2009 = The start of the Lions Golden Age (We hope).

by Hyperion Ecta on Sep 25, 2009 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

LOL, you got it

BTW, what are the odds at this point that we’ll go 16-0 this year?

What? He can’t block a dead gopher? Humph, details.

by GRLion on Sep 25, 2009 11:25 AM EDT reply actions  

Guilty of the immaturity----------------------------------------->

I can’t believe I let that dude get to me. Slamming a 6er of Molson XXX on an empty stomach at the time didn’t help matters either. I’m not going to apologize for my outburst because at the time I meant it, I’m just gonna step back and lurk here instead of being goaded into online scraps. I’ll save the scrappin’ for the FUbar mumms

by JazzyBBP on Sep 25, 2009 11:58 AM EDT reply actions  

Comment from the other thread, I think

I know the one…..not gonna point it out. No problem, it’s cool. We understand.

Go Lions!

What? He can’t block a dead gopher? Humph, details.

by GRLion on Sep 25, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

I am still catching up with this weeks threads

I havn’t had time the last couple of weeks to be on everyday :( but I am still trying to stay intouch with all of this. Just taking some time.

by davis0169 on Sep 25, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Stats help..

KDawg i know your a stats wiz. i am in a stats class and could use some help man if your willing. Pls let me know if you can help me out.

by SaginawGuy on Sep 25, 2009 3:12 PM EDT reply actions  

I might be able to help.....

It depends on what you are doing and how difficult it is…..but I did 4.0 my stats class in college.

by KDawg on Sep 27, 2009 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

the odds are always at 50/50

I mean look it either happens or it doesn’t. No but really the Lions don’t play by Stats they could have the odds stacked in their favor and would completely blow it, but on that same thing they might have no chance to win a pull out a miracle, which means we all will be hoping for a miracle and the Lions will again dash our hopes.

by JMW62689 on Sep 25, 2009 3:32 PM EDT reply actions  

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