On Paper: Lions vs. Redskins

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Lions Pass Offense vs. Redskins Pass Defense

Matthew Stafford's first couple weeks in the NFL have been tough ones.  With a QB rating of 40.5 and a touchdown: interception ratio of 1:5, Stafford is quickly learning what it's like to be  the starting quarterback for the Detroit Lions, as some fans are already calling for his head.  Indeed, his first two games have been a bit disastrous.  Though the Lions tried to take the pressure off of Stafford last week by emphasizing the run game, he still managed to turn the ball over twice, costing the Lions dearly.  The Lions are likely to continue to keep the ball out of Stafford's hands, to minimize mistakes.

The Redskins secondary may force the Lions into this run-first strategy anyways.  The Redskins boast the 11th ranked pass defense, although we are only two weeks in.  Cornerbacks DeAngelo Hall, Fred Smoot and Carlos Rogers combine for, perhaps, one of the most recognizable trios of cornerbacks in the league.  Rogers will likely have the undesirable task of covering Calvin Johnson, as he is the tallest of the three.  Rogers has three passes defended already this season, but has yet to go up against a receiver as talented as Johnson.  Smoot and Hall should have easier days, as the rest of the Lions receivers have combined for only seven catches all season. 

The Lions offensive line has done a fairly good job protecting Stafford this season, allowing only three sacks through two games.  Washington does not bring a huge pass-rushing threat to the table.  They have mustered only two sacks through two games.  If the Lions do decide to give Stafford the opportunity to throw the ball, he's likely to have some time to do it.  But considering the Redskins' secondary, and Stafford's struggles, Washington gets the edge here +2.

Lions Run Offense vs. Redskins Run Defense

The Skins broke the bank for Albert Haynesworth in the offseason, hoping that he would sure up their defensive line.  Lions head coach Jim Schwartz (and former defensive coordinator for Haynesworth) knows all too well how disruptive Haynesworth can be.  With his addition, last year's 8th best run defense promises to be even better this season.  However, through two weeks this unit looks to be fallible.  The Redskins are currently ranked 16th in rushing yards allowed and 22nd in yards per rush. 

In addition to Haynesworth, the Redskins have a solid linebacking group.  London Fletcher quarterbacks the unit and is a tackling machine.  Fletcher already has 27 tackles, which is ten more than anyone else on his team and ranks him 2nd in the NFL.  He and Kevin Smith are likely to cross paths multiple times on Sunday.

Given that the Lions were fairly successful against a very impressive Minnesota defensive line (129 yards), there is a good chance they'll be able to succeed again this week.  However, the Lions did show signs of struggling against Minnesota as well.  Though they outrushed Minnesota, they only averaged 3.8 a carry. 

Detroit is likely to emphasize the run again, in order to control the clock and protect Stafford from making a critical mistake.  Although this year's stats don't show it yet, Washington has an elite defense and will give Detroit a tough matchup here.  This may be the most important matchup in the game, but it's tough to see who has the advantage after the Lions' performance last week.  I'm tempted to give Washington a slight edge, but because Detroit showed they can hold their own, I'm going to call this one a Draw.

Redskins Pass Offense vs. Lions Pass Defense

The Redskins offense has been a bit of an enigma this year.  Though they rank 30th in points scored, they are just about average (19th) in yardage.  This could only mean one of two things, they have turned the ball over a lot, or their red-zone offense stinks.  The answer: door #2.  Last week, Washington was in the red-zone four times and came away with only 9 points.  Some blame the play-calling; others (myself included) believe it's only a matter of time before those field goals turn into touchdowns.  Again, last week may look poorly on the Redskins offense, but they put together four drives of 60 yards or longer (in comparison, the Lions have two all season).  They can move the ball.

The Redskins are still searching for an identity through the air.  Jason Campbell has been serviceable, (QB rating: 89.0) but not spectacular (1 TD, 1 INT ).  Though he has some great downfield weapons in Antwaan Randle El and Santana Moss, neither has gotten in the end zone.  Where the Skins may be able to do some damage is from their tight end Chris Cooley.  Cooley leads the team in receptions, yards and touchdowns.  The Lions have already given up 3 touchdowns to tight ends this season, and may very well add to that total on Sunday.

Detroit's pass defense has been atrocious so far.  They have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete over 80% of their passes (for a QB rating of 134.9) and have given up a league-high eight touchdowns through the air.  However, some of those statistics are inflated by the fact that they went up against Drew Brees and Old Guy Who Doesn't Throw Any Passes Longer Than Five Yards Anymore.  The situation is still a bit alarming.  Though the Redskins don't appear to be a downfield threat (longest pass play is 35 yards), Minnesota proved last week that short passes can be just as damaging against Detroit's defense.  But don't be surprised if the Redskins do take a couple shots down the field.  They certainly have the threat in Moss, but they haven't connected on a big play as of yet. 

In terms of pressure, however, Detroit may have the advantage.  Washington has given up four sacks so far, while Detroit has created three.  The Redskins are having trouble with the right side of their line, as they released RT Jon Jansen in the offseason (now with the Lions) and lost RG Randy Thomas for the year due to injury.  Last week, Lions LDE Jason Hunter took over for the injured Cliff Avril.  In his first start as a Lions, Hunter was impressive, notching a sack along with three tackles and a pass defended.  Avril is questionable to return against the Redskins.

On Washington's left side, however, Pro Bowl-regular Chris Samuels continues to dominate at left tackle.  He is likely to be a solid wall against DeWayne White (0 sacks). 

While Washington has some scoring issues, they've proven they can move the ball effectively this year.  Detroit, however, has failed to prove that they can stop teams through the air.  Though the Redskins are not likely to beat Detroit deep, their short-passing style may be even more effective against the Lions.  Detroit has the advantage in pressuring the quarterback, but unless they get to Campbell early and often, the Washington QB may have another career day against the Lions (career QB rating of 126.3 against Detroit).  Redskins +2.

Redskins Run Offense vs. Lions Run Defense

Clinton Portis, now in his eighth NFL season, continues to be a force.  In his eight seasons, seven of them have ended with 1200 yards or more.  Though he's only had a modest 141 yards so far this season, he's still averaging 4.0 a carry. 

As mentioned before, the strength of Washington's offensive line is their left side, so expect most rushes to go in that direction. 

Detroit's defensive line is still under question.  After a poor week one performance against Mike Bell and the Saints, Detroit rebounded by holding Adrian Peterson to 92 yards on the ground.  A big reason for that improvement was the play of LB Larry Foote.  Foote had ten tackles last week and was all over the ball.  Detroit's defense did take a hit late in the game when Ernie Sims went down with a shoulder injury.  Rookie DeAndre Levy will start in his place and will have his hands full with Portis and the left side of the line.  Levy is going to need to step up big to replace Sims' shoes. 

Though the Redskins' success has been modest on the ground, it is still something to keep an eye on.  Like the Lions, the Redskins are likely to emphasize the run game in order to control the clock, much like they did last week against the Rams.  The key to this matchup is Levy's ability to replace Sims.  Levy did some good things in the preseason, but is likely to have some trouble in the real game.  Still, if they Lions controlled Peterson, they certainly have a chance to stop Portis.  Redskins +1. 

Special Teams

Both kickers are perfect this year, so that's a draw.  In terms of a return game, Lions have the slight edge here.  The Lions showed the potential of their special teams in week one, with big returns by Dennis Northcutt and Aaron Brown.  Both disappeared in week two, however.  The Redskins have yet to return a punt more than 15 yards and a kickoff for more than 29.  But they do have a threat in Randel El, who returned a punt for 80 yards last time he went up against Detroit.  This year, he only has one return, so it is too early to pass judgment on his play. 

One interesting statistic is that the Redskins are best in the NFL in kick return defense (13.7 yards/attempt).  But the sample size is still way too small for that statistic to be significant.  Because the Lions have the only significant special teams play (Washington's fake field goal aside), they get the very slight advantage.  Lions +0.5. 

Overall

Washington has the overall advantage with a score of +4.5.  In the previous weeks, Minnesota had a +4 advantage and New Orleans had a +3 advantage, but we knew much less about those teams than we do now about Detroit and Washington now.   Though the score doesn't agree, I think this may be the Lions' best matchup of the season to date.  Both offenses have great weapons, but fail to utilize them fully.  Washington's defense is really the big difference in this game. 

I expect this game to be very low scoring, with both teams trying to establish the run and short passing games.  This will allow Detroit to keep the game close.  Washington may try to throw Detroit's offense off and go deep on a couple of plays.  If Detroit can contain that, they'll have a crack at their first win since 2007.  Still, Washington thrives on short passes, which is just what Detroit failed at stopping last week.  With the loss of Sims, the Lions are likely to struggle even more in this facet of the game.  I'll take Washington in a close one, 16-10.  (yes, Washington fans, that's three more field goals)