Draft History - which round DO people get drafted in? (Updated)
by ChicoWong on Jan 14, 2010 4:11 PM EST
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PrintSure enough, it's that exciting time of year for Lions fans... the season is over and it's all about potential for next year. Which means it's draft time.
This second draft of the Schwartz/Mayhew regime is critical in the (re?)building process for the team; duplicate last year's success, and there is a real possibility for a solid foundation of young talent. Pull a Millen-esque failure, and the promising rookies from last year may end up "Lionized" and accustomed to losing.
In the process of "getting smart" for this year's draft, one of the things I wanted to do was go back and look at when different positions got drafted on average. Unlike last year, where we needed a franchise QB and then any talent with a pulse, the Lions can identify / prioritize specific areas of need. Plenty of posters have done a great job writing about the team needs; what I want to provide is a historic sense of when you can address those needs in the draft.
We always hear the cliches like "never draft a kicker" and other conventional wisdom; read on to see what the facts have been over the last 10 years.
So, where did the top player at each position get drafted, and when did the third player at each position get drafted?
The methodology: Used data from drafthistory.com and built a spreadsheet looking at the 1st and 3rd pick at each position from 1999 to 2009, specifically what overall pick in the draft they were (so, for 2009 QBs, Stafford was 1 and Freeman was 17). Then calculated the average (and median as a double check for myself) for the position over the last ten years for the 1st and 3rd player of that position selected. Was stuck using the positions as listed (so OT instead of LT and RT).
The idea with the third player is imprecise, but gives an idea of how long you can wait on average before the top three players in a position are gone. Are the top three players good enough? Are there better players beyond the top three? Varies year to year and by position, but your odds of getting a solid talent rise considerably if you draft in the top three at a position.
What did I find? Here are the positions in order of when the first player in that position has been selected on average in the last 10 years:
|
Position |
1st player at position picked on average |
3rd player at position picked on average |
Notes |
|
QB |
3 (early first round) |
31 (late first / early second round) |
If not for Pennington (first QB in 2000, picked 18th overall) first QB picked average would be 1st overall |
|
OT |
5 (early first round) |
26 (mid to late first round) |
|
|
DE |
7 (early first round) |
20 (mid first round) |
|
|
DT |
9 (early first round) |
27 (late first round) |
|
|
RB |
9 (early first round) |
32 (late first to early second round) |
|
|
WR |
10 (early first round) |
20 (mid first round) |
|
|
CB |
11 (early to mid first round) |
23 (mid to late first round) |
|
|
LB |
12 (early to mid first round) |
29 (late first round) |
|
|
TE |
23 (mid first round) |
62 (early third round) |
|
|
S |
25 (late first round) |
64 (late second to early third round) |
|
|
G |
31 (late first to early second round) |
72 (early to mid third round) |
|
|
C |
39 (early second round) |
91 (mid third round) |
|
|
PK |
114 (mid fourth round) |
223 (late seventh round) |
Without Janikowski (17th overall in 2000) first kicker picked average would be early to mid fifth round |
|
P |
132 (early fifth round) |
220 (late seventh round) |
One of the best things about going deep into the data is noticing some interesting patterns.
For example, check out the first tight ends picked each year (as above, drafted around 23rd overall on average): Pettigrew, Keller, Olsen, Winslow II, Watson, Clark, Shockey, Heap, Franks. All names you recognize, all NFL starters with some impact. The 1st TE in a class seems to be a safe pick, and we got Pettigrew (20th OVR) right around the average spot to grab one of these guys. Let's hope it pans out that way.
That the 1st QB pick is risky is well known; the pattern for wide receivers shows that it's an equally risky set of picks (your last 10 1st overall WRs? Heyward-Bey, Avery, Megatron, Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, Fitzgerald, Charles Rogers, Stallworth, David Terrell, Peter Warrick, Holt). Talk about boom, bust, and everything in between.
Defense is a premium. All four defensive positions start getting drafted around 7th overall (DE) to 12th overall (LB) on average. The top three players in all four defensive positions are typically gone by the mid to late first round. This tells me the Lions really need to go defense with that 1st pick overall... DT, DE, DB, best player available is fine, but by the early second round the talent begins to be depleted in all four positions.
The second pick (34 overall) for the Lions is the key pick of this draft. The third best RB could still be on the board, the first or second best G likely will be available, and depending on how deep each of the defensive positions are in this class (and how other teams draft), you may still get a quality player at DT, DE, or DB.
Oh, and kickers? There's been a kicker drafted every year for the last ten years. Even if we exclude the Al Davis first round pick of Sebastien Janikowski in 2000, the average first kicker would be drafted 138th overall (early to mid fifth round). And yes, folks... in 2000 a kicker was drafted before the first QB off the board! Makes me hope those Millen to Oakland Raiders rumors are true.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Pride of Detroit or its writers. FanPosts are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable fans.
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Really nice bit of perspective here
Thanks for doing this and for taking the time to present it this way.
So basically what Orwell was saying was, "it's not perfect, but I'll take it."
by Mogwai on Jan 14, 2010 5:34 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Thanks guys
Glad you’re finding it useful! The next thing I want to do is compare this to how deep the current class seems to be at each position, to get a sense what positions could have unusually high value in later rounds compared to the normal trend… the Lions need to hit on those later round picks… but that’s a project for a little later. :)
Very nice work CW!
Gave you a well deserved Rec.
One refinement to consider is to divide the Tackles into Left and Right. Their is a tremendous difference in the value of these two positions. Although it is tough to determine which side they will play on since most of them are Left Tackles in college that get switched to Right because they are not athletic enough to play Left in the NFL.
not to sure it would matter for this post
If I am remembering correctly, it seems that all/most “top 3 tackles” are/should be projected as a LT. (Unless you draft Gosder, but he was even the 5th OT taken that draft) I think for what ChicoWong is thinking about doing for the later round analysis this would be really interesting. Splitting up the RT and LT is a great idea to see round 2-7.
Worth digging into
Thanks NorthLeft, and you raise a good point. The data source I used didn’t separate out DBs and OTs, but I’m going to see if I can rustle up some info on CBs vs safeties and right and left tackles from some other draft history listings.
I think qbdoyle’s right, the top three tackles are likely all left tackles (or what the team hopes will be a future left tackle), but that just means that right tackle might be a value spot later on in the draft. Given the inconsistency with Cherilus, it’s worth checking out if the Lions could fix that spot mid-draft.
I am ready to move Cherilus to OG
He was brought in to be a run blocker and destroy opponents. Put him at Guard and let him push the pile.
Draft History
NFL.Com has the complete draft history going back to 1936. Positions are broken down by OLB & MLB, FS & SS, etc. (But not OT).
I agree with you about pick # 34.
The Lions will have a great deal of flexibility at that pick. Don’t be shocked if the Lions take a WR that has dropped out of the first round at that spot. Damian Williams of USC or Brandon LaFell of LSU may be those players. I don’t think the Lions would take Golden Tate or A. Benn at this spot, but you never know.
Overall this draft is one of the deepest ever primarily due to the high amount of Juniors and redshirted Sophmores that have declared. There will be some very very good Safeties and Corners available at this pick and at #66 too.
Some interesting info on WRs
Good thoughts – here’s a tidbit on WRs that shows how that’s the hardest position to get a handle on as far as draft prediction.
The number of WRs drafted in the first round:
2009: 6
2008: 0 (!)
2007: 6
2006: 1
2005: 6
2004: 7
2003: 3
2002: 3
2001: 6
2000: 5
1999: 3
So by that second round pick, depending on team needs across the league and the perceived strength of the WR class, you’re looking at roughly anywhere from the 4th best WR to the 7th or 8th best WR being left. Should be interesting to look at how deep this year’s class is considered to be.
On CBs and safeties, I agree, especially on safeties – I’m guessing the 3rd safety in a class doesn’t come off the board on average until the late 2nd / early 3rd round… will need to find and run the numbers.
Found the info on CBs and safeties
And updated the table. Sure enough, the top 3 CBs are usually gone by the late 1st round, but the third safety in a class tends to last to the end of the 2nd round / beginning of the 3rd round.
Having a hard time finding something that separates the OTs into right and left tackles, will keep looking.
Interestingly enough.....
10 of the 2nd round picks in 2008 were WRs (5 of the first 11 2nd round picks).
Donnie Avery – pick 33
Devin Thomas – pick 34
Jordy Nelson – pick 36
James Hardy – pick 41
Eddie Royal – pick 42
Jerome Simpson – pick 46
DeSean Jackson – pick 49
Malcolm Kelly – pick 51
Limas Sweed – pick 53
Dexter Jackson – pick 58
and most of these guys are busts
Wideout might be the hardest thing to draft in the NFL.
The beginning of the end of the misery
They are?
Donnie Avery is pretty good, Devin Thomas lit on fire this year for awhile, Jordy Nelson is solid in GB, Eddie Royal had a sophomore slump but was awesome as a rookie, DJAX is the man in Philly, and Malcolm Kelly is pretty good.
4 of them are busts…..HArdy, Simpson, Sweed, and Dexter Jackson……
the way i look at it:
Sweed, Hardy, Simpson, Jackson are definate busts. Kelly and Thomas have a lot to prove before they can justify where they were picked (l say they are half busts).
Nelson, Avery, and Royal are good, and worth the picks
Jackson was a steal
The beginning of the end of the misery
good stuff chico
good read.
I spray paint my dog Honolulu Blue and Silver
Pic - me in one of my LIONS shirts
Nice post and good research
You could probably even expand on this a touch. Good work.
2009 = The start of the Lions Golden Age (We hope).
Zack Follett: he will hurt your mind.
well done
gotta apreciate a guy that takes his time and does his homework very nice
The best there is, The best there was, and the best there ever will be - Bret the Hitman hart
Fantastic post, Chico!
Best post I’ve seen the entire offseason, by far! Well thought out, well researched. Very useful. Keep ’em coming! Thanks!
What? He can’t block a dead gopher? Humph, details.
Great work
Thanks so much for the time you spend on this. Great read and info. You da man.
Hey Chico, do you mind if I repost this over at Niners Nation?
This is great info and should be seen by everybody.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
Go for it!
Now the Niners wouldn’t be interested in trading us a couple of those juicy mid-first round picks for #2 overall, would they? ;)
Here's a practical example of how this might apply (IMO)
From a consensus of mock drafts at
http://draftdebacled.com/DraftProspects.aspx
Mocks are not perfect. But a consensus of hundreds of mocks is probably better than relying on just a few mocks. Chico’s research allows us to take things one step further, and adjust the consensus by referring to historical results and trends.
We can compare 2 players, S Earl Thomas of Texas and CB Patrick Robinson of Florida State. The Safety Thomas has an average draft position of 19.4 (18th highest listed player). The CB Robinson has an average draft position of 32.2 (35th highest listed player).
Now according to Chico’s research, the first CB is historically drafted at 11 and the 3rd CB at 23. The first S is historically drafted at 25 and the 3rd at 64. Now there will be exceptions at the top of the draft for special players in a given year (such as Eric Berry this year), but the more relevant comparison is with the 2nd and 3rd players taken at a position. Even though Robinson is mocked at 32.2, history suggests, as the 2nd best CB, that he will get taken earlier, probably mid-1st Round. And even though Thomas is mocked at 19.4, as the likely 3rd Safety off the board, history suggests he might slide lower, perhaps to the 2nd Round.
If you were a slave to the numbers, you could say Thomas would go at #64, based on history. But players are unique individuals, not commodities. As I like to say, this is not the Chicago Board of Trade. These are people, not corn. In a given draft, there might be more safeties who have 1st Round talent. The most reasonable approach would be to strike some sort of balance between consensus mocks and historical drafts. Earl Thomas will probably get drafted somewhere BETWEEN 19 and 64. Patrick Robinson will probably get drafted somewhere BETWEEN 15 and 32.
By taking a combination of consensus pre-draft opinion and historical results, and mixing in some judgement and common sense, we can make some educated guesses on where players might get drafted. This is better than relying on mocks alone.
What? He can’t block a dead gopher? Humph, details.
by GRLion on Jan 18, 2010 8:49 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Implications
While not guaranteed (it only takes one team to change everything by drafting a guy, and players ARE individuals), this suggests that Earl Thomas might actually be more likely to slide to the 2nd Round than Patrick Robinson. If nothing else, history will exert a downward force on Thomas’ potential draft position and an upward force on Robinson’s potential draft position. To what degree this happens depends on the individual teams involved, and the perceived value of the 2 individual players.
Clear as mud?
What? He can’t block a dead gopher? Humph, details.
GR, you nailed it
Great way to blend the data together and make some conclusions. I love your comment that it’s not the Board of Trade! A primo example is that there’s a debate around Suh as the #1 pick (historically DTs came off the board starting at pick #9) so every class is different. The historical average is just that – an average – but gives you a sense of how team needs and talent availability have meshed in past years.
Been a bit radio silent lately, but I’m working on part two of the draft history look, which is the historical average of depth at every position… as a preview example, it looks like the career production of WRs drafted drops off surprisingly heavily after the 4th WR taken each year (on average, remember).
Hopefully we can use this info just like you did – when does someone get drafted, how deep can you draft for talent in a class, and how does this year’s class look different from the average? Stay tuned.
Good stuff GR
The Bringers of Hope: Stafford - Delmas - C. Johnson - Pettigrew - Levy - Hill - Schwartz
Zack Follett: he will hurt your mind.
by Hyperion Ecta on Jan 19, 2010 5:08 PM EST up reply actions
Based on what you've posted
it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see Haden get drafted before Berry.
I’ve done some research in the past too and no safety has ever been drafted top 5.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
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