The Weekend Spotlight - Week 6 Edition

Good Afternoon ladies and gentlemen, and welcome back to another edition of the Weekend Spotlight (formerly known as The Saturday Night Spotlight).  I am your host, KDawg.  The sixth installment of my weekly series has the Detroit Lions paired up against the New York Giants, on the road in East Rutherford, NJ, at Meadowland Field.  Coming off of a huge victory over the Rams, and officially our first win of the season, I am once again getting ramped up for this game.  I believe that we are at a crossroads for this game, and if the Lions can pull off an upset this weekend it will speak volumes about the fact that the Lions ARE for real.  The Lions are now 1-4 on the season, and it is clear that our team is no longer the whipping boy of the league.  With 5 weeks of the regular season already behind us, once again I will reveal who I believe will be the key players, on the Lion's offense and defense, for a Lion VICTORY!  I would be lying to all of you, and myself, if I did not say that it looks like an uphill battle for this game, as we will almost certainly be without Calvin Johnson in addition to Matt Stafford.  I would also guess that DeAndre Levy will sit out again this week.  As usual, I will provide you with the logic behind the reasoning for my picks, including stats.  The Giants are clearly in a different league than the Rams, likely in the same echelon as the Bears, Eagles, Vikings, and Packers, but VICTORY can still be ours, and I'll tell you why and how as the WS W6E begins after the jump...

While it is a given fact that we are all jubilant over the big win against the Rams last week, it is paramount that we the fans are not the only ones who should put things back into perspective this week.  The Lions can NOT settle for the good vibe feelings that they must have over beating St. Louis, but rather they have to put that win behind them (just like the prior losses) and look forward to the beast that they must face this week.  The Giants are no joke.  They are not the Rams, and the Lions can not allow the success against the Rams to manipulate their actions on the field this week.  They are going to have to play an even more disciplined game, both offensively and defensively, if they are to have any hope of beating Eli Manning and company.  The Giants run a base 4-3 defense, led by Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, Michael Boley, and Keith Bullock, as members of a front 7 that has combined for 19 sacks (10 against the Bears) this season.  Their secondary is also quite solid with Corey Webster (who had an INT against the Texans last week), Terrell Thomas (who had an INT in week 1 vs the Panthers and had another INT against Chicago in week 4), Antrel Rolle, and Kenny Phillips (who also had an INT week 1 vs the Panthers).

The Giants defense ranks #1 in the league in total defense, allowing just 19.6 points per game and an average of 244,6 offensive yards per game.  Their defense has also forced 10 fumbles and recovered 50% of those.  On the bright side, their defense has also committed 37 penalties for 305 yards (the team, as a whole, imploded one week for an NFL record 33 personal fouls in one game).  The Giant's defense ranks #1 in the league against the pass, allowing just 146 yards passing per game, 5 passing TDs, and an opposing QB rating of only 67.9 with a 54.7% completion percentage while grabbing 6 INTs.  They are also ranked 9th in the league against the run, allowing just 493 rushing yards against, with a 3.5 average YPC and 4 rushing TDs.  Shockingly, the Lions are ranked 17th in the league in total offense, with an average of 25.2 PPG, 332 YPG, but they have also committed a league leading 48 penalties on offense, for 338 yards, and they have fumbled 8 times, losing half of those, for a +3 turnover ratio.  After the win against St. Louis last week, the Lions are now ranked 6th in the league in passing, with 1250 passing yards, 250 YPG passing, a 61.9% completion percentage, 8 passing TDs, and 7 INTS.  The Lions have only allowed 9 sacks, which puts them in the top 10 in the league for sacks allowed.  However, they are also ranked 27th in the league in rushing, with just 410 rushing yards(+89 from last week), a 3.6 YPC (-0.1 from last week) average, and 4 rushing TDs (+0).

Offensively, I think the keys to a win against the Giants will be whether or not we can run the ball well and whether or not we can keep Shaun Hill in an upright, standing position.  I would not bet on Shaun Hill passing for 200 yards in this game, especially without Calvin Johnson in the mix.  Hill is going to be forced to check down often in this game, and I see Brandon Pettigrew, Tony Scheffler, and Jahvid Best getting a majority of the looks in the passing game.  I also see an increased workload coming for Kevin Smith this week, as I do not feel that Jahvid Best will be able to carry the full load against the Giants.  We are really going to need Nate Burleson to step up big in this game, and I believe his performance will be THE key for the Lions on offense for this game.  IF Burleson can get open quickly, catch the ball, and make plays in space, then I believe it may give our offense a chance to move the ball effectively, even without Calvin Johnson.  If Burleson is locked down all game long, then the Lions will be forced to rely on the TEs and RBs, in a dink and dunk fashion, to get anything done.  I would not place any bets that Bryant Johnson or Derrick Williams will accomplish much of anything in this game, and all hope will be lost anyway if our offensive line fails to protect Shaun Hill.  If Hill is pressured, hurried, and hit all day long, we can expect a ton of bad throws, INTs, and a sputtering offense in general.  If we can not set up our passes, then our only hope will be that Jahvid Best goes off this week on the ground, or that he can have another Philadephia like performance in the passing game.

Defensively, the Lions are facing an offense with a LOT more weapons than last week.  Eli Manning is a very good QB who can make all of the throws and break down defenses, Hakeem Nicks has seemingly exploded onto the scene recently, Mario Manningham has previously proven the fact that he can get the job done, and Steve Smith is always solid.  Ahmad Bradshaw has been getting it done on the ground for the Giants all year, and the combo of Bradshaw and Jacobs is STILL a sleeping giant that seems to be rousing from a long slumber.  The Giants are 9th in the league in passing, averaging 247.8 passing yards per game.  Eli Manning has thrown for 1239 yards on 64.4% completions, with 8 TDs and 8 INTs, and has also only been sacked 9 times.  The Giants also rank 11th in the league in rushing, averaging 4.5 YPC, with 651 total rushing yards, 130.2 YPG rushing, and 5 rushing TDs.  Our Lions are 24th in the league against the pass, allowing opposing passers an 83.2 passer rating on average, 61.8% completions, 235.4 passing yards per game, 7.6 yards per catch, and 8 passing TDs vs 7 INTs.  On the bright side, the Lions have sacked opposing QBs 14 times, which ranks 6th in the league, so our defensive line IS doing an excellent job of creating pressure on opposing QBs.  The Lions rank 26th in the league against the run, allowing 666 total rushing yards, a 4.8 YPC average, and 133.2 rushing yards per game with 5 rushing TDs.  The Lions are particularly bad at allowing explosion plays, as they are tied for the league's longest rushing TD of the year, allowing an 80 yarder by Adrian Peterson, and they own the league's longest passing TD of the year with an 89 yard TD against them by Matt Forte in week 1.

This is how I see it.  The Giants are going to do what they have been doing on offense all year long.  They are likely to pass for at least 247.8 yards, and they are likely to run for at least 130.2 yards, since the Lions allow almost exactly that much on average, and those are the average numbers for the Giants.  The only way that we can beat the Giants is if we can either 1) Stop them from passing the ball, or 2) Stop them from running the ball.  We are not going to stop both.  IF we can stop the Giants from running the ball, AND we can hold them to less than 100 yards rushing, with no rushing TDs, WHILE we ALSO hold them to less than 300 yards passing, THEN we have a shot a beating them this week.  That being the case, it is going to be ultimately important that our front 7 play a very good game.  They did well to hold Steven Jackson to 114 yards rushing and no rushing TDs last week, but Jackson and Bradshaw are completely different running backs.  Jackson is a power back, who rarely bounces outside and likes to ram it up the middle (no pun intended), while Bradshaw is a shifty, speedy back who can hit the hole very quickly and run between the tackles, while also getting to the edge on the outside.  I do not see Brandon Jacobs going off against us, as he is nowhere near the caliber of running back as Steven Jackson or any of the other backs we have faced, but Ahmad Bradshaw is going to be tough to contain.

I see the Giants trying Jacobs up the middle, to spell Bradshaw and keep him fresh, but I see him getting 3-4 yards at best (hopefully less) per attempt.  Bradshaw will test our defense in the middle also, but he will use his speed to try to beat us around the corners.  Our DEs and OLBs are going to be the key to stopping him, if he is to be stopped.  The DEs are going to have to stay home on running downs, and attempt to funnel Bradshaw back inside where the strength of our defense lies.  If they over pursue, then Bradshaw will be able to break off big gains on the outside unless our OLBs are ready and waiting.  The corners and safeties are also going to have to do a good job in run support, or we might see a couple of explosion plays by Bradshaw for long runs.  If, and when, Bradshaw runs to the outside, when the DEs can not funnel him back to the inside, then they absolutely MUST string him out in the flats and allow out OLBs to make plays.  In turn, our OLBS MUST make plays against Bradshaw IN THE FLATS!  There has been far too many attempted arm tackles by the Lions this year, and they need to wrap Bradshaw's legs up and take him down.  If our DEs can effectively funnel Bradshaw inside or flatten out running plays to the outside, and if our OLBs can make plays on him in the flats while our interior defensive line and MLB can make plays in the middle (with solid support in both aspects by the CBs and Ss), then we may have a chance to shut Bradshaw and Jacobs down and make Eli Manning beat us in the air.

I know that is a lot of IFs...but IF that happens, and the Giants are forced to throw the ball to beat us, then the key player on defense this week will be Chris Houston.  I think we are going to see a lot of single back, 3 wide sets from the Giants on passing downs, with Steve Smith moving to the slot and Mario Manningham going outside in his place.  That means we will be playing the nickle defense a lot, which means that we will see Houston, Smith, and Wade all in the game at the same time.  Personally, I would much rather see Wade in the nickle slot, with Smith and Houston on the outside matching up against Manningham and Hakeem Nicks, but we may very well be better off with Alphonso Smith in the slot against Steve Smith, with Wade on the outside against Manningham.  Chris Houston will be charged with the task of stopping Hakeem Nicks, and THAT is the key to a Lion victory this week if we can stop the run first.  Of course the Giants also have Kevin Boss, so our linebackers and safeties are going to have to do their best to stop him from beating us over the middle as well.  If it plays out as it has so far this year, Wade will match up against Manningham, and Alphonso Smith will play as the nickle back against Steve Smith.  I do believe this will be our best chance at containing the Giants against the pass, but everything is going to hinge on whether or not Chris Houston can stick with Hakeem Nicks, and whether or not the Lions are able to stop the run.  Again, EVERYONE on our defense has to step up and play decent football in order for us to beat ANY team, and this week is no exception to that rule.

In summation, the Lions once again have to stop the opponent's feature back from running all over them, and they have to stop three very good WRs and a potentially great QB from ripping them to shreds.  It would most certainly help if they could pressure, hurry, hit and sack Eli Manning on Sunday, as he has been known to make mistakes under pressure as well.  Offensively, the Lions have to establish a consistent running game, keep Shaun Hill on his feet, and allow him time to find the open man.  The Lions simply can not afford the stupid penalties this week either, and they are going to have to play a well disciplined game to beat the Giants.  Here is to the hope that the referees do not help the Giants win, and that the Lions continue to play solid football like they did against Chicago, Philly, Green Bay, and St. Louis.  Here is to the hope that the injury to CJ will not stop our offense from scoring and effectively moving the ball, and that our defense can hold the Giants to less than 100 yards rushing with 0 rushing TDs.  If the Lions can even make the Giants somewhat one dimensional on offense, while playing solid defense against the run, then I believe we have a good chance to beat them in their house.  This has been KDawg, and you have been reading the sixth regular season edition of The Weekend Spotlight!  Happy Football Sunday ladies and gentlemen, and GOOOOOOOOOO LIOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNSS!!!!!