The Weekend Spotlight - Week 10 Edition

Good Afternoon ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to another edition of the Weekend Spotlight.  I am your host, KDawg.  I apologize for this coming so late, but it has been a CRAZY week!  The ninth installment of my weekly series has the Detroit Lions facing the Buffalo Bills, on the road in Orchard Park, NY, at Ralph Wilson Stadium.  Coming off of a heartbreaking loss in week 9 against the Jets has not lowered my expectations for the Lions in this game.  However, the injury report does concern me very much.  This week's injury report lists Matthew Stafford (Right Shoulder) and Jason Hanson (Right Knee) as out, Isaiah Ekejiuba (Knee) as doubtful,  Cliff Avril (Quadricep), Chris Houston (Shoulder), Alphonso Smith (Shoulder),and C.C. Brown (Knee) as questionable, and Shaun Hill (Left Forearm), Jahvid Best (Toe), Kevin Smith (Knee), Stephen Peterman (Foot),Turk McBride (Ankle), Kyle Vanden Bosch (undisclosed), and Corey Williams (Groin) as probable.  The Lions are seriously banged up again after last week, and I feel that we are in BIG trouble if Avril, Houston, and Smith do not play, at the very least.

If Avril does not play, it may not be so bad as long as Turk McBride is able to play at near 100%...however, McBride does not possess the speed of Cliff Avril, and as such they play with completely different styles, with McBride not generally getting as much pressure on the QB as Cliff Avril does.  If Houston and Smith do not play, on the other hand, then the Lions will be forced to rely on Nathan Vasher and Brandon McDonald as their starting corners.  Needless to say, I believe if this happens we may very well see Ryan Fitzpatrick looking like Joe Montana on Sunday, as it is almost certain that he will have a QB rating over 100.  It is not that I have no respect for Vasher and McDonald, but it is simply that I feel they are best suited as backups and nickle backs to the surprisingly good combo of Houston and Smith.  Of course, I am also concerned about Shaun Hill and how well he will be able to play with a broken left forearm...but that could probably be a completely separate post all by itself.

On the Bills side of the ball, the injury report shows that Roscoe Parrish (Wrist), Andra Davis (Shoulder), and Shawne Merriman (Calf) are all out, Cord Howard (Shoulder) is doubtful, and Lee Evans (Ankle), Demetrius Bell (Knee), Eric Wood (Fibula), Chris Kelsay (Knee), and Reggie Corner (Ankle) are all probable.  The injuries to Parrish and Davis bode well for the Lions, as they will not have to worry about the Bills best safety over the middle, and they will not have to contend with Andra Davis (claimed on waivers) against the run (Shawne Merriman has been a non-factor all year, coming from San Diego off of waivers).  On defense, the Lions will likely face a backup at guard in place of Cord Howard, and the Bills are also banged up at OT and the other offensive guard position (Demetrius Bell and Eric Wood respectively).  The Bills run a 3-4 defense that already shows a seriously banged up linebacking corp, with Paul Posluszny being out with a long term knee injury, Reggie Torbor battling injuries all year, and Chris Kelsay's recent knee problems.  Kelsay will play Sunday at SLB, but he will likely be slowed some due to his injury, Torbor will play (not 100%) at JLB, and the Bills will then be left with free agent signing Akin Ayodele at MLB, with 5 year vet Keith Ellison at WLB.  We will also likely see 2 year vet Aaron Maybin at JLB at times.  The strength of the Bills defense is clearly their secondary (although they are not super tough), and they will still have Donte Whitner and jairus Byrd at safety, with Terrence McGee and Drayton Florence at CB.

The Lions are now 2-6 on the season, regardless of the fact that their record does not reflect the talent and ability that this team has, or their potential to win games against good opponents.  With 9 weeks of the regular season already behind us, once again I will reveal who I believe will be the key players, on the Lion's offense and defense, for a Lion VICTORY!  As usual, I will provide you with the logic behind the reasoning for my picks, including stats.  The Bills are arguably the worst team in the NFL at this point, with an 0-8 record.  They are 26th overall in total defense, ranked dead last in the league against the run.  Surprisingly they are ranked 6th in the league against the pass (which clearly shows that the strength of their defense IS their secondary).  On offense, the Bills also rank 26th in the league in total offense, ranked 23rd in passing and 18th in rushing offense.  Considering the teams we have already faced, not to mention the ones that we already beat, I think that the Lions (even with injury concerns) should have no problem beating the Bills.  Even though the Bill ARE still an NFL team, VICTORY can be ours, and I'll tell you why and how as the WS W10E begins after the jump...

Offensively, I think this will be the week that the Lions get the job done on the ground again.  The Bills 3-4 defense is HORRIBLE against the run, and if we can not get it going on the ground THIS week, then our hopes of ever getting it going, with our current personnel, is completely shot.  Yes, I have no respect for the Bills run defense and they have not shown that anyone should.  The Bills are allowing 4.8 yards per carry (3rd worst behind Indianapolis (5.1) and Tampa Bay (5.0)) and a LEAGUE LEADING 178.2 yards per game average to opposing running backs this season.  They have also allowed a league high 75 1st downs against the run (compare that to Detroit's 47).  They are tied for 3rd place in most rushing TDs allowed at 9, and they are tied for second in the league for 20+ yard runs (They have allowed 9, compared to Detroit's 4).  However, they have not allowed ANY runs of 40+ yards, while Detroit has allowed 3 of such said runs.  The Bills are much more stout against the pass, allowing just 193.4 yards per game through the air, but they have still allowed 17 passing TDs (3rd worst) and they have only gotten 1 INT with 12 sacks (compared to our 9 INTS and 24 sacks).  Clearly, the Bills linebackers are beatable in the passing game, and I believe they are vulnerable underneath and on shorter passing routes because of it.  I see this being a run heavy game for the Lions, and as such I am naming Jahvid Best as my key player this week on offense, to a Lion victory.

Due to the fact that Shaun Hill is going to start with a broken left forearm, many people have said that they hope to see a lot of shotgun and pistol formations this week.  I am simply hoping that he can get up under center and receive the snap without bungling it all day long.  If he can take the snap and hand the ball to Best and Smith, then I think the Lions will be fine this week.  When the Lions DO have to pass, which I do not see happening more than 20-25 times this week, then I also hope that we see a lot of shotgun formations, which will give Hill the best chance of receiving the snap cleanly, having time to get ahold of the ball with his throwing hand, and making plays.  I also believe that the Bills pass defense ranking may be a bit trumped up, as teams have not really had to pass the ball against them, due to the fact that they could just run it down their throats and eat up the clock.  Jahvid Best has not had a 100 yard rushing game yet this season, and I think that Sunday will be the day that he finally gets it.  IF we are not forced to play from behind, forced to pass to play catchup, and IF Linehan and Co call the plays to expose the weakness of the Bills defense by giving them a heavy dose of Jahvid Best and Kevin Smith all day long, then I believe that our rookie RB will turn some heads this week, and that his performance will carry the Lions to a win.

Defensively, we have another story.  Statistically this season, the Bills have been better at running the ball than they have been at passing.  However, I think how they choose to operate on offense this week will depend largely upon whether or not Alphonso Smith and Chris Houston are in the game.  If we are forced to run our backup corners out their against the Bills, then I fully expect them to work to expose OUR weakness by going pass heavy.  Even if that happens, I completely expect them to continue trying to get Fred Jackson going on the ground.  The bottom line here is that the Lions STILL have to stop the run and force the Bills to attempt to beat us by passing the ball.  The Lions held the 3rd best rushing offense to 110 yards last week (55 to LT, 46 to Shonn Greene, 8 to Brad Smith, and a 1 yd TD to Sanchez).  The Bills are ranked just 18th in the league in rushing offense, so I do not see why we wouldn't be able to shut them down there.  The Bills are even worse in passing offense, ranked 23rd, so I think the game will rest on the health of our corners, or the effectiveness of our backups if the starters can not play.  Regardless of which corners are playing, Santonio Holmes (in the slot) and Braylon Edwards (WR1) torched our starters a couple of times last week.  While it is a different story against the Bills, with Lee Evans (WR1) and Steve Johnson (WR2) being the only real threats in the Bills passing game (unless you want to call TE David Martin, or WRs David Nelson and Donald Jones, a threat), our corners are STILL going to have to stop the deep ball, no matter who is playing.

If the Bills are able to beat us deep with ease, then it will not matter what they do on the ground.  They will simply eat up clock by grinding away with Fred Jackson, and then they will take shots over the top to score points.  It is going to be paramount that our defensive line create a ton of pressure on Ryan Fitzpatrick, while also showing up against the run and allowing our linebackers to make plays.  If we shut down the run, and have no pressure on the opposing QB, then we will be in serious trouble should the Phonz and Houston not be able to go, or playing at less than 100%.  If we can shut down the run while ALSO creating good and consistent pressure up front, then we may be ok with Vasher and McDonald should that be the case.  I do not have any qualms that this will be the case, as I feel our D-line will dominate on Sunday.  While it may seem the obvious choice to select a corner as my key player this week, once again I am going to name Ndamukong Suh as the key to a Lion victory on defense this week.

Suh leads our entire defense, as a rookie, with 6.5 sacks.  KVB and Avril have 4 sacks each, and Corey Williams has 1 sack.  Even Sammie Lee Hill has 1.5 sacks.  Why?  Well, as you all know I believe that Suh is the reason why the rest of our defense is doing as well as it is.  I do not want to start the argument all over again, so I am just going to say that a DOMINANT PLAYER in SUH's position is one of the KEYS to SUCCESS in our defensive scheme.  Take that dominant player away, or contain him, and the rest of the defense suffers right along with him.  A perfect example can be seen last week versus the Jets.  The Lions had 1 sack (Avril).  Suh has 3 tackles on the day...and was effectively contained by Mangold and Moore all day long.  Corey Williams, who also had just 3 tackles, seemed to get manhandled by Matt Slauson, and KVB (4 tackles 1 assist) and Avril (1 tackle - 1 sack) were also contained by Ferguson and Woody (minus the one sack by Avril).  There was a complete LACK of pressure in the middle of our defensive line!  The result was Sanchez being able to sit in the pocket on passing downs, read the defense casually, and complete passes to his open receivers (when he was accurate....which was only 56.4% of the time).  With no pressure by Suh, or even Williams, a MEDIOCRE QB was able to toss up BOMBS of 74, 52, 25, 18, and 17, with relative ease. 

True, the Jets offense did flounder around quite a bit last Sunday, but the fact remains that unless we get pressure in the MIDDLE by Suh or Williams (Suh being the more likely to create mismatches in my opinion), then our DEs WILL struggle to get pressure and sacks because they must then go that much further to get to the QB, instead if getting there quicker due to the fact that he is forced to MOVE in the pocket!!  In fact, no pressure in the middle of the D-line creates a domino effect on our defense.  First, the QB can set up in the pocket and not have to move right or left.  Second, the pressure of the defensive ends is lessened due to the greater distance they must travel to get to the QB.  Third, the decreased pressure across the board allows the QB to make casual reads, picking apart defenses and exposing our weaknesses.  Fourth, the corners MUST cover the receivers for a much GREATER amount of time, which in turn gives the receivers more of a chance to get loose and beat them deep.  Fifth, the safeties are then forced to stay back and cover over the top, which in turn weakens our run defense.  And lastly, we end up completely SCREWED because we can not stop EITHER the pass OR the run!  The morale of the story is that WE MUST HAVE PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE D-LINE IN ORDER FOR OUR DEFENSE TO BE SUCCESSFUL AS IT STANDS!!

In conclusion, I truly believe that this week is going to be a LOT different than last week...even with our injuries potentially plaguing us.  I believe that we will see a TON of pressure by Suh, Williams, Sammie Lee Hill, KVB, Avril, and McBride.  I believe we will not allow Fred Jackson to beat us, as Levy, Palmer, and Peterson will be able to get in the running lanes and make plays off of the pressure and push our D-line will create.  I believe that the pressure and push of our front 7 will allow even our average corners to do a decent enough job covering that we will not see an over abundance of big plays by the Bills passing offense, and I also believe that the same pressure will allow our safeties to be able to properly support both the run and pass defense.  I believe the Lions will run all over the Bills this week, and that Jahvid Best will surpass 100 yards on the ground this week for the first time.  I also believe we will see Kevin Smith run successfully.  I see the Lions winning in a BIG way against the Bills.  As long as we are successful on the ground, and as long as we create lots of pressure in the middle of our defensive line, I do not see the Lions losing this game.  My prediction is Lions 35 - Bills 10.  As always, I hope the refs do not beat us, and I hope that the Lions play a well disciplined, mistake free game.   This has been KDawg, and you have been reading the ninth regular season edition of The Weekend Spotlight!  Happy Football Sunday ladies and gentlemen, and GOOOOOOOOOO LIOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNSS!!!!!