The Weekend Spotlight - Week 11 Edition

Good Afternoon ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to another edition of the Weekend Spotlight.  I am your host, KDawg.  The tenth installment of my weekly series has the Detroit Lions travelling to meet the Dallas Cowboys, in Irving, TX, at Texas Stadium.  Coming off of another head scratching loss in week 10 against the Bills has me wondering if our guys are up to the task this weekend, but it has not lowered my expectations for the Lions in this game.  Once again there are concerns for me, coming from our injury report, as it shows the following thus far (through Thursday):

My bet would be that Avril and Best will be listed as "questionable" when the official injury report is released, but I would believe that Jahvid Best will be playing Sunday.  Avril is another story, however, and I would not be surprised to see him sit this one out.  I would also bet that Jason Fox, Bobby Carpenter, Isaiah Ekejiuba, Calvin Johnson, Tony Scheffler, Corey Williams, Chris Houston, Alphonso Smith, and Turk McBride will be listed as "probable", if they are listed at all, and Matthew Stafford, Jason Hanson, and Kevin Smith will be listed as "out" (Smith had thumb surgery and I would be surprised if he suits up this week).

On the Cowboys side of the injury situation, this is what we know thus far:

 
Terrence Newman is projected to play on Sunday, even though he has not practiced.  However I would bet that he will be listed as "questionable", along with Sean Lissemore and Kevin Ogletree.  I imagine that Jay Ratcliff, Jason Hatcher, Bradie James, and Mike Jenkins will be listed as "probable" if listed at all.  I doubt Tony Romo will play, and I think he will be listed as "out" again this week, leaving Jon Kitna as the interim starter against the Lions.

The Lions are now 2-7 on the season, regardless of the fact that their record does not reflect the talent and ability that this team has, or their potential to win games against good opponents.  With 10 weeks of the regular season already behind us, once again I will reveal who I believe will be the key players, on the Lion's offense and defense, for a Lion VICTORY!  As usual, I will provide you with the logic behind the reasoning for my picks, including stats.  The Cowboys are a team that is superior to the Buffalo Bills, even though the stats may not currently show it, and if the Lions go to Dallas and play like they did last weekend, we will be in for a very long day.  The Cowboys are 23rd overall in total defense, and they are also ranked 23rd in the league against the run.  They are ranked 21st in the league against the pass, which is where the Buffalo Bills, surprisingly, are the better team. On offense, the Cowboys rank 9th in the league in total offense, ranking 4th in passing and 31st in rushing offense.  Clearly, the Cowboy's strength is their passing game, and they are struggling even more than Detroit to run the ball.  Considering the teams we have already faced, not to mention the ones that we already beat, I think that the Lions should be able to win against the Cowboys.  Besides the fact that we handed the 0-8 Bills their first win last week, VICTORY can be ours, and I'll tell you why and how as the WS W10E begins after the jump...

I am going to go ahead and say this right now...this game is going to be ALL about whether or not our DEFENSE can stop the Cowboys passing attack and get off of the field.  I am going to start with defense this week, because I believe our performance on defense, as a whole, will be the ULTIMATE KEY to a Lion Victory on Sunday.  Even though it is possible that Cliff Avril will be out this week, and even though Turk McBride did not exactly light the world on fire against the Bills, Lawrence Jackson did play very well against Buffalo, and I do not think we will have too many problems this week if Avril does not play.  I am much more concerned about the health of our corners, as I still believe that Jon Kitna is a more than capable backup who can definitely get the job done.  Kitna has thrown for 1076 yards, 7 TDs, and 7 INTs, in just 134 pass attempts this season, in relief of Tony Romo.  He has completed 61.2% of his passes, with a passer rating of 82.2, and he has been sacked 9 times in just under 63% of the passing attempts that Romo has this year (Romo was sacked 7 times over 213 passing attempts).  Both Romo and Kitna are spreading the ball pretty evenly amongst their best recievers, as Witten (46 catches), Bryant (41 catches), and Austin (47 catches) have combined for 134 catches for 1777 yards and 11 TDs out of 2681 total passing yards and 18 TDs that the Cowboys have produced this season.  In order to beat the Cowboys, the Lions are going to have to create a lot of pressure on Jon Kitna, forcing him to make bad throws and mistakes, and they are going to have to stop Dez Bryant and Miles Austin from beating them deep all day long.  Jason Witten is also a beast that has to be reckoned with, and our linebackers and safeties are going to have to step up in a major way in order to stop him from beating us.

That said, the Lions are STILL going to have to stop the two headed monster of Felix Jones and Marion Barber from controlling the game on the ground.  I have no doubts whatsoever that the Cowboys WILL attempt to beat us by running the ball, first and foremost.  They will test the waters early and often, feeling out the Lion defense and how stout they will play against the run.  As stated earlier, the strength of the Cowboy's offense is definitely their passing game.  However, if they can control the clock by successfully RUNNING the ball, you can take it to the bank that they will do it.  I believe that the Lions can stop their running game, but they are going to have to do a much better job in the middle this week, than they did against Fred Jackson and the Bills last week, and allow the linebackers to make plays without fighting off huge blockers.  IF we can bottle up the run consistently then the Cowboys will revert to their passing game, thus becoming more one dimensional and allowing the Lions to key on stopping the receiving threats of the Cowboys.  Of course, the ability of Alphonso Smith, Chris Houston, Brandon McDonald, Nathan Vasher, Louis Delmas, Amari Spievey, Julian Peterson, Ashlee Palmer, and DeAndre Levy to stop Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Jason Witten, Felix Jones, and yes even Roy Williams and Martellius Bennett from ramming the ball in some dark and nefarious places, all hinges on whether or not our D-line can create pressure on the opposing QB, and whether or not we CAN in fact stop them from running all over us.

I believe that Dez Bryant and Jason Witten (along with Roy Williams and Martellius Bennett and the RBs) can be contained by Chris Houston and our linebackers with relative ease (we have faced others who were just as good if not better and done very well).  The REAL threat from the Cowboys is Miles Austin, who leads the Cowboys with 47 catches for 725 yards and 3 TDs, with a 15.4 yards per catch average, a long of 69 yards, and 3 TDs.  Dez Bryant is more of a threat in the red zone, as he leads the Cowboy's pass catchers with 5 TDs.  That said, I am naming Alphonso Smith as the KEY player on defense this week, to a Lion Victory.  If the Phonz can stop Miles Austin from going over the top (much like he failed to do when Lee Evans went deep on us last week), then we stand a much better chance of winning than if Austin can beat us deep all day.  That aspect of the game, the long passing TD, has to be stopped this week if we hope to win, and I believe Smith will be matched up on Austin.  IF Smith can stop him from going yard on us, then I like our chances.  If not, and if he allows Austin to get behind him even one time for a long TD, then I think we lose.

Offensively, I think the Lions should have no trouble moving the ball this week.  However, I think we proved to ourselves last week that we have work to do before we will be able to establish a consistent running game.  Due to that fact, I think the Lions should look to pass the ball much more often this week.  Personally, I would like to see a minimum of 60% of our plays being passes against Dallas, and I would not be upset at all if it were more like 65-70%.  The Lions have shown all year long that they CAN beat teams by passing the ball, and this crap of waiting until the 4th quarter, when we are desperate, to throw the ball to Calvin Johnson has to stop.  The Lions would be smart to throw the ball to Megatron ALL DAY LONG, in every single quarter and in every offensive series.  I can not understand how the Lions coaches can live with themselves when they are so clearly squandering the talents of our best weapon.  Linehan and Schwartz need to get together and agree to call CJ's number, early and often in this game.  I want to see 50% of Hill's passes (minimum) going to #81.  The Cowboys run their own version of the 3-4, and while it has been very solid in the past I do not see it as being nearly good enough to stop all of our weapons.  Of course, you could say the same about our defense versus their offense...

While I feel that Calvin Johnson should be the bulk of our offense, I think that Brandon Pettigrew is going to play a large role in this game.  Shaun Hill seems to target his TEs a lot more than Matthew Stafford does, and as such I hope that Pettigrew does a good job of just CATCHING the ball this week.  He does not have to break free and make big gains.  He just has to catch the ball.  If he can do that, then it will take a great deal of pressure off of Calvin Johnson and even Nate Burleson.  Strangely, I have felt that the Lions have been trying too hard to make Burleson the go to guy on offense recently, and it has seemed as if they thought the attention that CJ has been getting was a good enough reason to target him less and Burleson more.  I completely disagree with this idea, and if you really think about it, what other team does not utilize their greatest weapons on a regular basis?  Calvin Johnson is a freak of nature, and it is just a travesty that he is not a perennial selection for 1st team all pro.  I like Nate Burleson, don't get me wrong, and I think he will see his share of targets and receptions this week, but his performance should be a product of Calvin Johnson's SUCCESS...not the other way around.

That being the case, I do not see Burleson being the key player on offense this week.  I do not see Jahvid Best being the key player, or even Shaun Hill (even though I think he really should throw it up to CJ a LOT more, regardless of the coverage...take some damn shots!).  I do not see any of the offensive linemen as being key players either, regardless of the fact that they must keep Shaun Hill on his feet (they can't run block to save their lives, as seen against the Bills, so we won't even go there).  Calvin Johnson will be THE key to our success on offense this week.  I truly believe that Brandon Pettigrew has the ability to greatly help make it possible for Calvin to dominate.  The Cowboys defense has been terrible this season at stopping the opposing TE, and Shaun Hill has shown a propensity for targeting Pettigrew and Scheffler in the past.  IF Pettigrew can make catches, and be a reliable target this week, then I think Calvin Johnson will benefit.  However, regardless of whether or not Pettigrew, Scheffler, Burleson, Best, or any other receiver is successfully reliable, Shaun Hill MUST throw the ball to Calvin Johnson BEFORE it happens out of desperation.  Seriously, we all saw CJ have 10 catches for 129 yards and a TD last week...and EIGHT of his catches came in the 4th quarter!!  Shaun Hill only targeted Calvin Johnson FIVE times in the first THREE quarters against the Bills!!  Now you tell me...is that properly utilizing your best weapon?  For God's sake man...CJ might have had 20+ catches in that game had he been targeted more often in the 1st 3 quarters, and we might have TROUNCED the Bills instead of LOSING the game on a BS throw that had NO CHANCE of being completed on a FAILED two point conversion attempt to TIE the GD game with 4 seconds left!!  *deep breath*

Ok...now that I have that off of my chest, it does bear significance to point out the obvious fact that the stupid penalties did not help us any last week.  11 penalties for 60 yards...8 of which were on offense.  Nothing kills a team's chances more than a bunch of morons who don't even know their own snap count, or who have to hold in order for a decent play to even develop.  Raiola...YOU'RE the EFFING center jackass!  You of all people should KNOW the GD snap count!!  Seriously...you can not pin those stupid penalties on Jim Schwartz, even though he may actually hold himself accountable for the mistakes.  The real blame lies with the guys who are on the field, making the boneheaded mistakes.  No amount of repetition or practice can fix fundamentals like that, once you are at the professional level.  The bottom line is that a professional football player should already possess the discipline needed to avoid mental breakdowns, on a fundamental level, when they reach the professional level.  Thus the word "professional".  WE learned these things in POP WARNER for crying out loud.  No...short of a complete overhaul on the offensive line, I do not see these stupid penalties ceasing to exist, simply from a coach screaming his head off in practice and making the linemen do the same thing over and over and over again.  It would be a colossal waste of time in my opinion, and you can just get the F out of here with the idea that Jim Schwartz is somehow to blame for a group of guys making retarded mistakes, when he had nothing to do with them even being on the team in the first place.  You want to place blame on shoulders other than those guys on the field?  Start looking back at Matt Millen, and then at Martin Mayhew...he's the guy who drafted heavily on defense over the past 2 years.  Not saying I am not happy with what Mayhew has done with the defense, but it is a no brainer that our offensive line needs some damn attention sooner than later.

In conclusion, I believe that the Lions CAN win this week.  The Lions will win IF they can stop the run and contain the deep threats on defense (this means you Houston and Smith), and if they utilize their best weapon more than ANYONE else on the offense.  If Brandon Pettigrew can catch the ball consistently, and we do not have a ton of ridiculous drops by other receivers, it will go a long way to helping Calvin Johnson do what he does best, and if he is doing that, we will win.  And lastly, IF somehow a miracle occurs and we can play mistake free football, while our defense stops the run and contains the deep threats and our offense does not force Calvin Johnson to do it all by himself, we will win.  I was so mad last weekend that I could not even come back here and write my usual follow-up, for fear that I would end up getting myself banned.  I sincerely hope this week will prove to be different.  As always, I hope the refs do not beat us, and I hope that the Lions play a well disciplined, mistake free game.   This has been KDawg, and you have been reading the tenth regular season edition of The Weekend Spotlight!  Happy Football Sunday ladies and gentlemen, and GOOOOOOOOOO LIOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNSS!!!!!

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