Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: Lakers Should Trade Andrew Bynum So He Doesn't Go To Waste

Stats: Where have we improved? Passing offense edition

Through the disappointment of so many close losses and late-game fall-aparts we've seen, it is, I believe, important to look at some of the positive aspects of the Lions' play to get an idea just how good this team could be if our single most important player didn't spend most of the season injured. 

I was going to look at our pass offense, rush offense, pass defense, rush defense, and special teams to highlight some of the most important measurable categories we're doing well and how much we've improved (or declined) compared to previous seasons...and then I realized how much work that would be, so I'll make this part one, and hopefully look at the others over the next few weeks. 

Passing Offense

Star-divide

It's a passing league, and if you can move the ball through the air you can really give your team a chance to win most games.  To get an idea of how much the Lions have improved in this category, just look at where we have been, and where we are compared to the rest of the NFL through 11 games so far. 

Passer rating is not perfect, but it is a good comparable measure of a successful passing offense, as it takes into account yards per attempt, touchdowns per attempt, interceptions per attempt, and completion percentage, and compiles them into one nice number.

For the sake of comparing improvement over the past three years, I'm going to just arbitrarily combine all the QB's from 2008, as well as the 2009 QB's who weren't Matthew Stafford.  I know this doesn't paint a perfect picture if you're debating whether Daunte Culpepper is better than Drew Stanton (for example), but my purpose here is to illustrate A)how much better we are with Stafford this year now that he's got his shaky rookie season under his belt, and B)how much better we are with Shaun Hill as a backup than all the other guys we've had to play and replace over the past three years.

3yearqbcomparison_medium

Our worst QB?  Culpepper+Stanton in 2009, followed by Stafford as a rookie trying to lead the first 0-16 team in NFL history, followed the five-man turnstile from our winless 2008.

Our best QB?  Stafford this year--clearly a top-10 quarterback when he's been healthy.

Our second-best QB in recent history?  Shaun Hill.

Pass Protection

Although maybe they don't get enough credit for one reason or another, our O-Line has done an excellent job keeping defenders away from our quarterbacks.  I know, Stafford got injured game 1 on a Julius Peppers sack, but when you look at a much broader picture, and consider how many times our quarterbacks have been hit or sacked per pass play, our pass protection is the sixth best in the league right now. 

2010passprotectionthrou_medium

Someone brought up a what I thought might be good point a few weeks ago: since Shaun Hill has been playing the majority of snaps and doesn't have the arm to take chances downfield like Stafford did, doesn't that make our pass protection, as measured in sacks+hits per attempt, less impressive, if he's completing shorter passes and getting fewer yards on a pass attempt?  I don't believe it does.

Yes, the Lions have a below-average 6.1 yards-per-pass-attempt, but there is actually not a positive correlation between yards per attempt and sacks+hit %, in fact there is a very slight negative one--that is, teams with a higher ypa, on average, have slightly better pass protection.  But really, they're all over the board:

Sackhitypanocorrellatio_medium

So, to summarize: Backus & Co: keep up the good work protecting the pocket.  Hopefully next year it will be Stafford benefiting all the time from your work, and not our backup. 

What do you think?

Poll
Are you optimistic about our passing offense?
HELL YES! If Stafford's healthy we're UNSTOPPABLE!
48 votes
We're much improved, and I'm optimistic, with some reservations (state in the comments).
49 votes
I don't know that our pass game has improved much, here's why (leave a comment)
4 votes
Wins are all that matter. If our passing offense was any good, we'd be winning more. So no, I'm not really optimistic.
18 votes
Other.
2 votes
Unsure.
1 votes
No Opinion.
0 votes
I don't like any of these options.
2 votes

124 votes | Poll has closed

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Pride of Detroit or its writers. FanPosts are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable fans.

Comment 37 comments  |  7 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

Some reservations

I think you have to have some just based on the Lions past. I belive we are on track though. I am sure someone will post below though how stats don’t matter. Theres no improvment in wins there for we are not improved.

Did I mention..I love the Phonz!

by The Profiler on Nov 29, 2010 6:47 PM EST reply actions  

Run, Run, Run!!

I believe we need to be able to run the ball and that will improve our passing attack even more than what it is this year. The Kansas City Chiefs are 1st in the league in running the ball and have the 6th best offense in the league. Because they can run ball their quarterback Matt Cassel has a qb rating of 99.7 with 22 tds and 4 ints. A running game can have a major effect on the passing attack.

The OL needs to be upgraded with personnel to improve our run game. Our passing attack will become so much more dangerous with it.

by The_Lions_Roar on Nov 29, 2010 7:49 PM EST reply actions  

Yes!

What that guy said.

by rproulx on Dec 1, 2010 12:00 PM EST up reply actions  

I always appreciate your posts n4ry4

I think that at full health, our passing offence is near the top 5 in the league. Stafford, if healthy, has shown that he can pick apart defences and score TDs. CJ is an awesome receiver, and Nate ain’t bad either. Grew is a great pressure valve and then you have Best who may be our homerun hitter. We have a clearly explosive offence, we just need to be healthy.

RIP Robyn Bailey 1961 - 2010. I love you mum.

by Hyperion Ecta on Nov 29, 2010 9:56 PM EST reply actions  

I always appreciate your posts n4ry4

I think that at full health, our passing offence is near the top 5 in the league. Stafford, if healthy, has shown that he can pick apart defences and score TDs. CJ is an awesome receiver, and Nate ain’t bad either. Grew is a great pressure valve and then you have Best who may be our homerun hitter. We have a clearly explosive offence, we just need to be healthy.

RIP Robyn Bailey 1961 - 2010. I love you mum.

by Hyperion Ecta on Nov 29, 2010 9:56 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

Brothat from down under must have really appreciated it

he said it twice….. LOL Hyper.

How many lumps you want Doc?

by davis0169 on Nov 30, 2010 3:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, stupid computer...

RIP Robyn Bailey 1961 - 2010. I love you mum.

by Hyperion Ecta on Nov 30, 2010 8:15 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't know when it happened HE

But I am sorry for your loss…I just saw your sig line. May God rest your mother’s soul.

BLAH, BLAH, BLAH, BLAH....Yeah? Time you shut your cake hole Yoko. -Chris Farley, Dirty Work.

by KDawg on Nov 30, 2010 9:59 PM EST up reply actions  

It'll be nearly 5 months on the 11th

This Christmas will be especially tough. First Christmas in my life that I’m not looking forward to.

RIP Robyn Bailey 1961 - 2010. I love you mum.

by Hyperion Ecta on Dec 1, 2010 6:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Keep your head up my friend

I lost my Dad last year, and I know how hard it can be. I have to keep telling myself that he would not want his death to ruin my life. I lost my Grandma when I was 18 years old, and I let the grief of that take me down the wrong path. It is too easy to do, and it is not worth it. My thoughts and prayers are with you.

It's a terrible thing to have to tell your fans, who have waited like Detroit's have, that their team won't win it this year. But it's better than lying to them.
--Sparky Anderson

by KDawg on Dec 2, 2010 3:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Thanks KD

POD has been very good for me. Being able to sit at the computer for half an hour helps keep my mind of things.

RIP Robyn Bailey 1961 - 2010. I love you mum.

by Hyperion Ecta on Dec 2, 2010 5:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Question about this statement...
Although maybe they don’t get enough credit for one reason or another, our O-Line has done an excellent job keeping defenders away from our quarterbacks. I know, Stafford got injured game 1 on a Julius Peppers sack, but when you look at a much broader picture, and consider how many times our quarterbacks have been hit or sacked per pass play, our pass protection is the sixth best in the league right now.

Greater the YPC the higher the sack percentage? Isn’t there some correlation? What about hits after the catch? Stafford and Hill take a beating which coincides with the short YPC. Meaning especially Hill is a dumpoff master, then takes the hit.

IMO the stats showing how fantastic the O-line is at pass protection is skewed.

The only legend around here is the one that exists in your own mind.

by delusional on Nov 29, 2010 10:02 PM EST reply actions  

Actually...

The median average of QB Hits (after the pass) is 50.9375…and Detroit has allowed 50. That said, they have allowed a very small amount of sacks when compared to the rest of the league, and they are about average for QB hits. I think that is pretty good.

What n4ry4 said was that “teams with a higher ypa, on average, have slightly better pass protection” (meaning a lower sack ). However, the scatter plot clearly shows that there is not a strong correlation between YPA and sack, which means that a team with a higer YPA could have a lower pass %, or they might have a higher one…the data is not conclusive in that regard.

BLAH, BLAH, BLAH, BLAH....Yeah? Time you shut your cake hole Yoko. -Chris Farley, Dirty Work.

by KDawg on Nov 29, 2010 10:41 PM EST up reply actions  

for some reason it omitted my percent signs...

There should be a percentage sign behind each time I said “sack” in my above post (except in the 2nd sentence on the 1st paragraph).

BLAH, BLAH, BLAH, BLAH....Yeah? Time you shut your cake hole Yoko. -Chris Farley, Dirty Work.

by KDawg on Nov 29, 2010 10:44 PM EST up reply actions  

I've never seen that number presented anywhere before. Nice find.

The only legend around here is the one that exists in your own mind.

by delusional on Nov 29, 2010 11:44 PM EST up reply actions  

I found it in the data that n4ry4 provided

I just did the calculation to find the median average. The conclusion I take away from this data, is that the Lions have a good pass blocking offensive line. It seems obvious that they are terrible at run blocking though. I am interested to see more data.

BLAH, BLAH, BLAH, BLAH....Yeah? Time you shut your cake hole Yoko. -Chris Farley, Dirty Work.

by KDawg on Nov 30, 2010 10:48 AM EST up reply actions  

You get why I've been wondering about that number?

The offensive line is usually portrayed as being good in pass protection, yet to myself it looks like especially Hill is a hurried and harried dumpoff specialist who then takes an after the pass whacking, which would lead me to believe that just maybe the Oline isn’t as great as they are being portrayed,if their protection is resulting in dumpoffs, and a 6.1 per pass attempt.

So this then would lead me to believe because Hill has played so much that his penchant for throwing to the TE’s is bringing down the overall YPC average.

OMG I couldn’t see the plus sign in that graph until I blew up my screen….lol

The only legend around here is the one that exists in your own mind.

by delusional on Nov 30, 2010 11:02 AM EST up reply actions  

Im no expert

and I havent seen all the games, but when a team can’t run the ball the opposing teams tend put less players in the box and drop more players into pass coverage. As a result less players are blitzing and the dump off pass is all thats open. I don’t know if there are any stats to see how much the Lions are blitzed compared to other teams but it would be interesting to see.

I just have a hard time beliving that a O line could be SO good at one thing and so piss poor at another.

by SLCLion on Nov 30, 2010 12:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah

The YPA average is definitely being effected by the fact that Shaun Hill can not make every throw that is required to properly execute our entire offense. That said, I think the idea of YPA or YPC (however you want to put it) is being overplayed a bit. Dilfer and the Ravens dinked and dunked their way to a Super Bowl victory (I know…it is the same old example, but it’s true). With Hill not having the same arm strength as Stafford, his deeper passes are more lazy and much easier to defend. To avoid turnovers, I think he has been told to take the shorter routes more often than not, unless the deep route is pretty much wide open.

Add in the factor of what SLC says below, about our lack of a running game, and you have a much clearer picture as to why our overall YPA is low. In my opinion, the fact of the matter is that Hill does have time to throw…he just can’t make all of the throws that Stafford can. Not only that, but we could (and would) be winning games right now, even with the offense as it has been, IF we had a better defense (and that goes back to the Ravens example again). I watched the MNF game last night, and I couldn’t help but notice how superior our offensive line looks, not only in pass pro but also in run blocking, to the Cardinal’s O-line, and that says nothing about how horrible Arizona’s defense was. Does a low YPA directly correlate with wins and losses? In some aspect, and in part, I am sure it does…but so do the rest of the statistical categories.

It’s not just one stat that matters…as has been suggested elsewhere. It is a combination of ALL of them together. We are improving…but we are not going to suddenly become playoff contenders when we are just two years removed from the worst team in NFL history. We are competitive…even if our win and loss record is unfavorable. We will continue to improve…but we have to stop changing head coaches, GMs, and schemes long enough for those people to get all of the right pieces in place, and allow time for that system to work.

Our long history of losing does not help. I understand the lack of patience from some of the fans. However, it would be nice if everyone would just realize that it COULD be our time very soon, have a little faith, and believe that it will work out for the best. I am quite interested to see what else n4ry4 comes up with.

BLAH, BLAH, BLAH, BLAH....Yeah? Time you shut your cake hole Yoko. -Chris Farley, Dirty Work.

by KDawg on Nov 30, 2010 3:04 PM EST up reply actions  

lol...SLC's comment is above mine, not below.

BLAH, BLAH, BLAH, BLAH....Yeah? Time you shut your cake hole Yoko. -Chris Farley, Dirty Work.

by KDawg on Nov 30, 2010 3:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Especially with a negative turnover ratio.
Does a low YPA directly correlate with wins and losses? In some aspect, and in part, I am sure it does…but so do the rest of the statistical categories

With a low YPA, it would suggest to me a ball control type of offense, which is fine as long as you don’t drive the field only to turn the ball over short of the red zone.

But this also why stupid penalties have hurt so much. Controlled offense, steady down the field movement, and a self inflicted penalty ending a drive short of the red zone.

Why do I keep saying “short of the red zone”? Because we have a VERY good red zone percentage so many a drive is stalled short due to penalties.

The only legend around here is the one that exists in your own mind.

by delusional on Nov 30, 2010 3:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed

BLAH, BLAH, BLAH, BLAH....Yeah? Time you shut your cake hole Yoko. -Chris Farley, Dirty Work.

by KDawg on Nov 30, 2010 3:56 PM EST up reply actions  

my only beef Kdawg

is that the ravens had a GREAT defense and a GREAT running game. we have neither. we have GREAT skill positions. thats it. A top 5 pass rush isn’t a top 5 all time defense season wise.

I have a 9" personality

by Waitingfortheroar on Dec 1, 2010 3:41 AM EST up reply actions  

True

We do also need a better running game…which starts with a good O-line.

It's a terrible thing to have to tell your fans, who have waited like Detroit's have, that their team won't win it this year. But it's better than lying to them.
--Sparky Anderson

by KDawg on Dec 1, 2010 10:08 AM EST up reply actions  

whoa--i agree with you for once

while these data are interesting, i don’t think our pass protection is exceptionally good. i think our scheme protects our guys a bit more than say some other schemes (Bears) by allowing for quick dump offs and sometimes keeping a TE in for protection. that said, i think our QBs have done a good job getting rid of the ball and burning a few from time to time. Hill and Stafford have good pocket presence and awareness. hits after the throw probably, to some extent, suggest pressure is forcing a QB decision. such plays can be more deadly than sacks.

by x$pcents IV on Dec 2, 2010 11:24 AM EST up reply actions  

Great stuff as usual n4ry4

I love it.

BLAH, BLAH, BLAH, BLAH....Yeah? Time you shut your cake hole Yoko. -Chris Farley, Dirty Work.

by KDawg on Nov 29, 2010 10:44 PM EST reply actions  

all we need now is some wins :(

Matthew Stafford, Quarterback: a man barely alive, Gentlemen we can rebuild him, We have the technology, We have the capability to make the worlds first bionic QB, Matthew Stafford will be that man, Better than he was before
Better, Stronger, Faster

by Gyorick on Nov 30, 2010 12:24 AM EST reply actions  

Do you have anything

on the correlation between passer rating and winning percentage? Does a higher passer rating lead to an increased win percentage?

I mean, it seems intuitive that the two are related, but it’d be nice to finish the thought process here with that data, too.

Interesting stuff.

by Thorpac on Nov 30, 2010 1:09 AM EST reply actions  

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=0&statisticCategory=PASSING

the QB’as on the list with a high rating win a lot. its pretty simple haha

I have a 9" personality

by Waitingfortheroar on Dec 1, 2010 3:33 AM EST up reply actions  

well...

Rivers is 3rd, his team is 6-5. Vince Young is 6th, his team is 5-6. 8th and 9th place go to Orton and Romo, and each of those teams is 3-8.

Sanchez of the Jets is 22, but they’re 9-2. Cutler is 16th but they’re 8-3.

It’s not as obvious as it seems. :)

by Thorpac on Dec 1, 2010 1:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Our passing offence is designed for Stafford at QB.

With his ability to make the long throw, and also fire the ball into tight spots it places much more pressure on a secondary. Having said that, he has not thrown many long passes in his limited play this year. I am looking forward to the Lions utilizing that part of his talent………next year?

by NorthLeft12 on Nov 30, 2010 7:09 AM EST reply actions  

no its not

its about making accurate throws intermediately until the defense is forced to blitz and burning them deep or breaking off a deep one on a single coverage. When you throw first you are trying to FORCE up close coverage and hit them deep. its backwards offense. you just have to execute it. running is part of keeping them honest and trying to catch them on an overload. Philly and Indy have been doing it a decade.

I have a 9" personality

by Waitingfortheroar on Dec 1, 2010 3:39 AM EST up reply actions  

While there is no doubt we have gotten better, there is also no doubt abotu so future concerns

Concern 1: Can Stafford stay healthy? I don’t want any answers to this, because there are not any, only time will tell.

Concern 2: How do we improve from here as Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton being in the game still leaves us below average at that position?

By the way I have a bit of a problem with those stats, they clearly inflate the value of Shaun Hill as a starter. Sure he is a good back up, but as a starter he has never been rated above 20th all season, he is a bottom third of the league QB as a starter, and Stanton fares even worse. So while your numbers suggest he is slightly less than average he in fact is worse than that when compared to his peers.

Also to answer my own question above. I think the most effective thing we can do moving forward, to help Matt Stafford, Shaun Hill, Drew Stanton, or whoever it be, is focus on building a real football team instead of following this franchise quarterback dream. Even Peyton Manning is struggling this year and as I have said before, for all of his accolades he has exactly one super bowl ring. Tom Brady while more successful, seems to have a better supporting cast (read coach) to help him.

No my friends I always have, and still do believe that a championship franchise is built on a running game and a defense. We will not see consistent winning here in until that happens. In fact the last time we had a successful team it featured a lot of good names on defense along with Barry Sanders. The problem with the franchise QB model, IMO is that all of your eggs are in one basket, it is feast or famine based on that one guy mainly. Where a running game and defense is build on units and if one guy has a bad game, or is injured for the season, the team is much more able to adjust and compensate for that.

Ndamukong Suh - Bringing 50's football back to Motown!

by Evilsmurf on Dec 2, 2010 5:22 PM EST reply actions  

....

Bad combination: The Chicago Bears are tied for the NFL lead with 26 takeaways this season. In the Detroit Lions’ Drew Stanton, they’ll face a quarterback who has thrown seven interceptions in 104 career attempts while also losing two fumbles. That’s nine turnovers in one start and eight relief appearances. If the Lions are going to take any pressure off Stanton, it will have to be with a running game likely to feature No. 3 tailback Maurice Morris. I don’t like Stanton’s chances of navigating the Bears’ defense mistake-free, which is what he’ll have to do in order to win this game. The Bears have 16 interceptions this season, 13 of which have come against their standard four-man pass rush. That means they’ll be sitting back in coverage Sunday, simply waiting for Stanton to make a bad decision or an inaccurate throw.

History in the making? The Lions haven’t won an NFC North game since defeating the Bears in Week 8 of the 2007 season. Since then, they’re 0-18 against the Bears, Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings. Overall since that 16-7 victory against the Bears, the Lions have lost 46 of 51 games. Only one of their five victories over that stretch has been against a team with a winning record at the time, their Week 8 victory against the Washington Redskins this season. For those hoping or believing the Lions will win Sunday, I present these facts without comment to provide context for how historic such a victory would be. Nfc North last word

did i mention i love boobies?

by Tommy Ohyeah Mcduffie on Dec 4, 2010 12:36 PM EST reply actions  

We've Improved Everywhere

We’ve improved at EVERY aspect of the game BUT continue to be stupid when it comes to discipline. Once the 4th quarter begins the team goes into self destruct mode. Rest assured that my friend will get things turned around once his ‘wing’ is healthy. I have suggested sitting the remainder of the season but he’s not having it. Even if it’s the last game, he’s going to go. I wish the team would step in and ‘shut him down’ but they won’t. Matthew is a competitor and won’t sit just to sit!

by lioneyz on Dec 7, 2010 4:13 PM EST reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to Pride of Detroit, SB Nation's blog that is your source for everything Detroit Lions.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Small
Matthew Stafford & Will
Mikel-leshoure2_medium_small
Top 10 Fanpost!

Recent FanPosts

Small
2012 Roster & Analysis
Dylan_small
POD's Offseason Open Thread
Small
How much Respect Does Stafford Have in the NFL? Will he appear on the Top 100 list?
Small
All-time NFL mock draft on MtD
500x_delmas_medium_small
Checks and Balances....
Small
Predictions for this Year.
Tigerpaw_small
Cosell on Stafford and Newton
Img00529_small
For arguments sake..

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >


Managing Editor

Pod_small Sean Yuille

Writers

Detroit-lions_small simscity

Untitled-2_small Latif Masud

41li1jpy5il Mavyrk