The Weekend Spotlight - Week 15 Edition

Good Evening ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to another edition of the Weekend Spotlight.  I am your host, KDawg.  The fourteenth installment of my weekly series has the Detroit Lions matched up with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, on the road in Tampa, FL, at Raymond James Stadium.  With just 3 games left in the season, and coming off of a BIG, even if nondescript, WIN in week 14 against the Packers, the Lions will play against a team that has been quite successful this season at 8-5.  Even though Tampa Bay is 8-5, I do not see their record as a true reflection of how good or bad they are.  Just like last week, I believe the Lions can win this game, and as usual I still have great expectations for them in this game.  Once again the odds are against the Lions, as Vegas has Tampa Bay as a heavy favorite (-5.5) against the now 3-10 Lions, yet I STILL believe that the Lions WILL win this game.  The Lions did an admirable job defensively last week, in the face of what could have been insurmountable injury issues, but Tampa Bay is not fairing so well this late in the season in that department either.  It is unclear as to who will be our starting QB this week, however Drew Stanton has taken first team reps in practice all week (Shaun Hill was working as the 3rd stringer) and is likely to start at QB again vs Tampa Bay.  We all saw Stanton struggle last week, but in the end it did not matter, as the defense was stout and played a full 60 minutes.  Let's take a moment to get a better idea at who will be playing this week, by examining the injury reports for both teams:

Ok...so Gosder Cherilus is now out for the rest of the season, placed on the IR because of a knee injury.  He did not play last week either, and Corey Hilliard replaced him seamlessly.  I honestly did not notice any difference in the play of our RT, between Cherilus and Hilliard, so that is a positive thing to note.  The fact that Hilliard came in and did a passable job in place of Cherilus last week takes a lot of worry off of my mind about that issue.  We already know that Alphonso Smith and KVB are also on IR, but again their backups seemed to do very well against the Packers.  I was rather impressed with Nathan Vasher, Turk McBride, and Lawrence Jackson, and those guys (along with Hilliard, Maurice Morris, and Drew Stanton) are allowing their performances to speak volumes about the improvement this team has made in terms of depth.  The only real concern I have this week is whether or not it will be Ashlee Palmer at WLB or Landon Johnson.  Even then I feel that Palmer does a decent enough job when he plays, that we shouldn't really miss Landon Johnson too much if he can not go.

At first glance, it looks like Tampa Bay is 100% healthy and that they have no injuries.  Upon further and more in depth review however, one should note that the Bucs have already lost 6 starters (and several backups) to the IR this season.  These players include Gerald McCoy (their best DT), Aquib Talib (arguably their best corner as Barber is slowing down), Quincy Black (one of their starting LBs), Jeff Faine (their starting Center), Davin Joseph (one of their starting guards), and Cody Grimm (one of their starting safeties).  These guys are now replaced by Al Woods (a rookie DT out of Louisiana State, who has not played in a single game this year), E.J. Biggers (a 6'0" 180 lb 2nd year corner out of Western Michigan, who has played in 13 games (3 starts) this season, mostly as a nickle back, and done well with 39 tackles, 9 PDs, and 1 INT), Dekoda Watson (a rookie LB out of Florida State), Corey Lynch ((no relation to John Lynch), a 3rd year Safety out of Appalachian State, who in 13 games (2 starts) has compiled 20 tackles, 1 PD, and 1 INT), Jeremy Zuttah (a 3rd year center out of Rutgers, who has started 6 games in place of Faine), and Brandon Carter/Derek Hardman/Ted Larsen (ALL 3 rookie guards who are now the only guards they have in Tampa due to injury).

Needless to say, the Buccaneers are skating by on a wing and a prayer in my opinion.  Without Talib, McCoy, and Black especially, on defense, I believe that the matchups will favor the Lions in terms of both running AND passing the ball this week.  Not only that, but the Bucs run a 4-3 Tampa 2...so we should be pretty familiar with that defense and how beatable it can be.  With 3 rookie guards rotating on the interior of their offensive line, next to a 3rd year center who is relatively inexperienced,  I can not imagine that Suh, Williams, and Hill will not be able to stop Blount dead in his tracks.  I also can not imagine that our pass rush will not get to Josh Freeman on a regular basis on Sunday.  In my opinion, Tampa Bay's 8-5 record much more accurately reflects how good they were WHEN they had all of their starters healthy, and that is not even mentioning how SOFT their schedule has been (they have wins against Cleveland, Carolina twice, St Louis, Cincinnati, Arizona, San Francisco, and Washington).  Every time they have faced a better team, they have lost (losses are to Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Atlanta twice, and Baltimore).  They are beatable, and we are going to do them up, even with our 3rd string QB at the helm.

The Lions are now 3-10 on the season.  With 14 weeks of the regular season already behind us, once again I will reveal who I believe will be the key players, on the Lion's offense and defense, for a Lion VICTORY!  As usual, I will provide you with the logic behind the reasoning for my picks, including stats.  In my opinion, it should prove to be a far less difficult task to beat Tampa Bay than it was to beat the Packers or the Bears,  and I would even say it is VERY possible that our road losing streak ends here.  We played the Pack pretty well, both in Lambeau and at home, and I feel that they are a team superior to Tampa Bay.  The Lions are building momentum, and I am confident that we will WIN this game.  I am going to try to keep it short and sweet again this week, and regardless of what the Vegas odds say, VICTORY can be ours, and I'll tell you why and how as the WS W15E begins after the jump...               

We have now fallen to 11th in the league in passing offense, and the Bucs are sitting at 11th in passing defense.  We have risen to 27th in the league in rushing offense (up from 28th last week...lol), and the Bucs are 27th in rushing defense.  The Bucs are 21st in the league in passing offense, and we are now 13th in passing defense (up from 16th last week).  The Bucss are 11th in rushing offense, and we are now 22nd in rushing defense (up from 25th last week).  In comparison, last week we faced the Packers, who were 6th in the league against the pass (now 3rd) and 18th in the league against the run (now 19th).  We faced a superior run defense last week and the week before, and we came away with 190 rushing yards against the Packers, in addition to the 134 yards rushing and a TD against the Bears.  I think we will run the ball well again this week, and I see no reason why we wouldn't.  We also face a less superior passing defense, at Tampa Bay, than we did against either Green Bay or Chicago.  Even though we did not see great strides in the passing game over the last two weeks, I do feel that we may see more opportunities to pass the ball this week as well.  That said, Drew Stanton turned the ball over twice against Green Bay, and hopefully we can chalk that up to the level of defense he was facing.  I would be happy with a turnover free performance from Stanton again this week, and as long as we can get the job done in the running game I think it will take some of the pressure off of #5, and maybe that will help him too.

Offense

Offensively, I honestly think the key player will once again be whoever our QB is this week.  If Stanton starts, he is going to have to do a better job at throwing the ball accurately.  If Hill starts, he is going to have to overcome the pain of his injury and play a solid game as well.  No matter which one of the two is the starter this week, there is no doubt in my mind that we will have to be more balanced on offense in order to beat Tampa Bay.  Atlanta barely got the job done against Tampa in week 13, and they had to win it in the 4th quarter.  Matt Ryan passed for just 205 yards, 2 TDS, and 2 INTs, while Michael Turner only had 88 yards and 1 TD.  The Falcons won 28-24, with Freeman, Blount, and the Tampa offense putting up 325 net yards and 1 turnover vs Atlanta's 290 net yards and 2 turnovers.  Tampa won the TOP battle too, but penalties ended up being the difference in the game.  My point is this: Atlanta has one of the most well balanced offenses in the NFL this year...and they only put up 290 net yards against what looks to be a pretty weak defense on paper.  If the Lions are one dimensional, and try to run the ball too much, then Tampa will key on it and we will go nowhere.  That is why our QB will be the key player this week on offense.

Defense

Defensively, I think our most difficult task will be to stop LeGarrette Blount from having a field day against us (man I love how his character issues have effected his on field performance so far, don't you??).  Blount is a beast.  He is a power runner who loves to bang and who is very difficult to tackle high.  He is very strong, and if he gets past the defensive linemen, then I certainly hope that SOMEONE hits him below the waist and wraps him up quickly.  He is also quite fast for his size (he ran a 4.62 at the combine at 241 lbs...but to me he just looks faster than that).  Blount is averaging 4.5 yards per carry, and has a long of 48 yards.  Over 4 starts and 10 games played, he has racked up 667 yards and 5 TDs, busting off 103 and a TD against Atlanta in week 13.  That said, I am praying for a big day from Suh, Williams, and Hill in the middle, in addition to a big day, once again, from DeAndre Levy, who I believe will be the key player again this week on defense.

Levy was awesome last week against Green Bay.  He had 8 tackles and an INT in the end zone, which likely saved the game for the Lions last week.  Levy is going to have to be solid in the middle again this week, as even though our DTs are very very good, they will not likely make every play against Blount or whatever other RB the Bucs use.  We need Levy to be a ballhawk in the middle again this week, and we need him to come up hard and fast when he sees the ball being run at him.  If he can be solid against the run, while also being decent in pass coverage again, then I believe it will make a big difference between whether the Lions win or lose this week.

Overall Keys

Here is my take on the overall keys to VICTORY for the Lions vs Tampa Bay:

1) Execute a balanced offensive attack.  Do what works, but mix it up to keep the defense honest.

2) Play a full 60 minutes of disciplined football.  Do your best not to make the stupid mistakes.

3) Win the turnover battle.  Protect the ball!

4) Stop the run.  Make Freeman beat us by passing, when he is not on his back.

5) Pressure, hurry, hit, and sack Freeman regularly.  If he has no time, he can not throw.

6) SCORE!  Move the ball effectively and efficiently on offense, and use the clock wisely.  Win the TOP battle.

We CAN win this game, but the Lions are going to have to protect the ball on offense and play a mistake free game (or at least as close as possible to that).  They are also going to have to find a way to play a FULL 60 minutes of hard nose football AGAIN, and a way to make things go OUR way AGAIN.  I believe this is also going to be a close game.  I predict that the final score will be less than 35 points total, and that the Lions will gain another VICTORY.  Once again, I want to thank all of you who read this post.  As always, I hope the refs do not beat us, and I hope that the Lions play a well disciplined game.   This has been KDawg, and you have been reading the fourteenth regular season edition of The Weekend Spotlight!  Happy Football Sunday ladies and gentlemen, and GOOOOOOOOOO LIOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNSS!!!!!

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