The Weekend Spotlight - Week 16 (Christmas!) Edition

MERRY CHRISTMAS ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to another edition of the Weekend Spotlight.  I am your host, KDawg.  The fifteenth installment of my weekly series has the Detroit Lions facing the Miami Dolphins, on the road in Miami, FL, at Sun Life Stadium.  With just 2 games left in the season, and coming off of a spectacular WIN in week 15 against the Buccaneers, the Lions will play against another Florida team, one that has been somewhat less successful than their predecessor in Tampa, that is now 7-7 on the season.  Miami has been a team that has seemed to follow the pattern of win, loss, win, loss all season long (in fact they won their first two, lost their second two, and have been win, loss, win, loss ever since).  Unfortunately they happen to fall on the win portion of that pattern this week, but fortunately for us the Dolphins are a pitiful 1-6 at home this season (yes, they are 6-1 on the road...go figure).  Just like last week, I believe the Lions can win this game, and as usual I have great expectations for them in this game.  Once again the odds are against the Lions, as Vegas has Miami listed as the favorite to win (-3.5) against the now 4-10 Lions.  Regardless of that little piece of information, I believe that the Lions WILL win this game.  The Lions played a great game last week against the Bucs, besides their injury issues, and Drew Stanton did an excellent job of leading our offense on 5 separate scoring drives (including a late 4th quarter drive to tie the game, and a game winning drive to start OT).  Miami is basically 100% healthy, minus the losses of Brian Hartline, Chad Pennington, and Al Harris earlier this season.  Once again, It is unclear as to who will be our starting QB this week, with Shaun Hill taking the first team reps on Wednesday and Drew Stanton taking them on Thursday, however I have to believe that Drew Stanton will get the nod on Sunday (as he has the hot hand at the moment).  We all saw Stanton play a very solid game last week, and in the end the defense did enough to allow Drew to lead us to victory.  Let's take a look at who else will (or will not) be playing this week, by examining the injury reports for both teams:

It has already been determined that Matthew Stafford will not play this week.  In fact, the Lions have placed him on the IR as of this morning.  As the injury report shows, the Lions are dealing with multiple nagging injuries.  The newest injury was to Louis Delmas, who sustained a concussion against the Bucs.  He was cleared to play on Monday, but the Lion's coaching staff has erred on the side of caution with him this week, which is why he did not practice Wednesday or Thursday (I just read on the Lion's website that he is doubtful to play on Sunday).  I believe that everyone on the injury report, who is not Matthew Stafford, Louis Delmas, or one of the other 2 QBs, will play this week.  Looking back on the season ending injury to Gosder Cherilus, I feel that Corey Hilliard has done a very good job replacing him.  I am encouraged across the board at the apparent depth of our team when it has come down to playing backups.  This is not something that could be said last year or the year before, which is a sign of the improvements that this FO and coaching staff have brought to us.  Hopefully Delmas will play too.

Karlos Dansby has turf toe.  He will play this week despite the injury and the fact that he has not practiced this week.  We all have seen first hand what turf toe does for a player's performance level (Jahvid Best), so that is somewhat encouraging to me as well (Miami will field at least one linebacker that is slowed by injury).  Other than that, and the previously mentioned players they have already lost to the IR, the Dolphins are pretty much 100%.

That said, there is a reason that Miami is 7-7.  They are beatable.  Their offensive line is in shambles, and they have struggled all year against teams with good defensive lines.  This week should be no different in that regard, as they will face one of the best in the league in that department.  The Lions are going to stuff the non-existent run game of the Dolphins, like last month's turkey, and they are going to pressure, hurry, hit, and sack Chad Henne all day long.  The great thing about that is the fact that Henne is TERRIBLE under pressure, and he is a classic choke artist.  Many of us saw that when he was at Michigan, and now at the next level it will be even more pronounced.  Brandon Marshall is a force...but he can not throw the ball to himself, and Chad Henne can not throw it to him either if he is constantly picking his carcass up off the turf.  I believe the real threats this week will be Anthony Fasano, Devonne Bess, and the Miami defense.

The Lions are now 4-10 on the season.  With 15 weeks of the regular season already behind us, once again I will reveal who I believe will be the key players, on the Lion's offense and defense, for a Lion VICTORY!  As usual, I will provide you with the logic behind the reasoning for my picks, including stats.  In my opinion, it is going to be a bit tougher to beat Miami than it was to beat Tampa Bay, but in terms of defense Miami is right around the same as Green Bay, with the Packers being tougher against the pass and Miami being tougher against the run.  We played the Pack pretty well, both in Lambeau and at home, and I feel that OVERALL they are a team superior to Miami.  The Lions continued to build momentum, and I am confident that we will be in this game.  I am going to try to keep it short and sweet again this week, and regardless of what the Vegas odds say, VICTORY can be ours, and I'll tell you why and how as the WS W16E begins after the jump...  

The Lions are still 11th in the league in passing offense, and the Dolphins are currently 6th in passing defense.  The Lions continue to rise in terms of rushing offense, and are now ranked 23rd in that category (up from 27th last week), and the Dolphins are also currently 6th in rushing defense.  The Dolphins are 18th in the league in passing offense, and we are now 14th in passing defense (down from 13th last week).  The Dolphins are 21st in rushing offense, and we are now 24th in rushing defense (down from 22nd last week).  In comparison, last week we faced the Buccaneers, who were 11th in the league against the pass (now tied for 11th) and 27th in the league against the run (now 29th).  We faced an inferior run defense last week and the week before, and did well.  I think we will have less success this week at running the ball, and I believe we will see more passing (which may be the reason the Lions feel they need to go with Shaun Hill over Drew Stanton, but I disagree with that logic).  We also face a superior passing defense, at Miami, than we did against Tampa Bay, but Miami's pass D is not better than Green Bay's (clearly we did not do well passing there either).  Even though we are facing a more well rounded defense this week than in weeks prior, I still believe that we can work the matchups in the passing game to be successful, and hopefully we can still run the ball a little to keep the defense honest.  Our offensive line is in for a test on Sunday, as Miami's pass rush has been nearly as successful as ours.  Cameron Wake, the ROLB for the Dolphins, has 14 sacks this year...so Backus and Sims had better bring their A game if we hope to keep our QB on his feet (this is another reason I want to see Drew Stanton playing, as I feel he is better equipped to escape the pass rush).

Offense

Offensively, it would be easy to name the QB as the key player AGAIN this week.  However, I am going to name Jeff Backus as the key player on offense this week.  Rob Sims has done an excellent job at helping Backus on the left side this year, and he is going to have to step up big this week as well.  Backus and Sims will be tasked with stopping and/or slowing down not only Cameron Wake, but also Karlos Dansby and Randy Starks.  Dominic Raiola will likely be matched up one on one with NT Paul Solial most of the time, and will not likely be much help to Sims this week.  That is going to leave Backus alone on the outside at times, as Sims will be forced to block inside if Dansby or Wake blitzes.  Backus will be forced to stop Randy Starks by himself, and he will also have to be the one helping Sims this time.  I hope that Jerome Felton and Maurice Morris are ready to bang this week, because we are going to need their help blocking on passing downs.  If Backus can not hold his own this week, then whoever the QB is will be in big trouble, and I hope they are aware that their blind side is likely to be vulnerable.  Here is to the hope that Backus and Sims work like a well oiled machine on the left side this week.

Addendum: After I had already written this section, I noticed that the Lions website says that Corey Hilliard will be tasked with stopping Cameron Wake.  Upon further review, I found that Wake IS the WLB for the Dolphins, and as such Corey Hilliard would be my pick for key player.  He did an excellent job against Clay Matthews, and if he can do a similar job against Wake, it will go a long way to helping the entire offense succeed this Sunday.

Defense

Defensively, I think our most difficult task will be to stop Devonne Bess in the slot (when he lines up there) and Anthony Fasano at TE.  The Lions have previously struggled with offenses that utilize the slot receiver often (IE New England etc), and I look for Bess to be quite active in this game.  With the pressure that the Lions will undoubtedly bring, I also worry that Fasano (the QB's safety blanket) will be targeted often.  I cringe to think of Eric King being matched up against Bess...but that is what it looks like it will be at times.  That said, I am praying for a big day from Suh, Williams, and Hill in the middle, in addition to a big day from DeAndre Levy, Julian Peterson, Landon Johnson and the rest of the linebackers, who I believe will control whether or not our corners and safeties can limit the Dolphin receivers.  Because of the fact that Chris Houston will be matched up with Brandon Marshall, I feel that the KEY matchup on defense is going to be the guy lined up against Devonne Bess.  Bess has just as many catches and TDs as Brandon Marshall this season, and he poses a problem for our defense.  It is likely that Eric King and Nathan Vasher will be lined up opposite Bess on Sunday, and depending on the formation one or the other of these guys is going to be the key player on defense this week.  There is not much else I can say about this, so that is all I will say..:o)

Overall Keys

Here is my take on the overall keys to VICTORY for the Lions vs Miami (they are the same as they were last week):

1) Execute a balanced offensive attack.  Do what works, but mix it up to keep the defense honest.

2) Play a full 60 minutes of disciplined football.  Do your best not to make the stupid mistakes.

3) Win the turnover battle.  Protect the ball!

4) Stop the run.  Make Henne beat us by passing, when he is not on his back.

5) Pressure, hurry, hit, and sack Henne regularly.  If he has no time, he can not throw.

6) SCORE!  Move the ball effectively and efficiently on offense, and use the clock wisely.  Win the TOP battle.

We CAN win this game, but it is going to take a very solid game plan and excellence of execution in order for it to happen.  The Dolphins are not the best team we have faced, but they do have a lot of playmakers and a well rounded defense.  We need to play a mistake free game (or at least as close as possible to that) and a full game once again.  I do not see either team being able to turn this into a blowout, and I am predicting that the final score will be less than 45 points total.  I believe that if things go our way, and if we do not beat ourselves, that we will be in this game to the very end and come out with a VICTORY.  Once again, I want to thank all of you who read this post.  As always, I hope the refs do not beat us, and I hope that the Lions play a well disciplined game.   This has been KDawg, and you have been reading the fifteenth regular season edition of The Weekend Spotlight!  Happy Holidays, Merry Christmas, and Happy Football Sunday ladies and gentlemen!!  May your days be merry and bright, and GOOOOOOOOOO LIOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNSS!!!!!

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