Interesting Perspective
by mpsteen2 on Feb 2, 2010 10:55 AM EST
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So, do the Lions draft Suh if he is available? That would mean the Rams took a QB. Most Lions fan would scream at the top of their lungs, YES! But, as a true Lions fan for many years I suggest we all take one big step back. If Suh is a bust, the Lions may very well be set back another couple years from contention, and I know that most Lions fan cannot wait any longer for the Lions to be a contender. I know I can't. There is no doubt that Suh is a great talent, but most players that make it to the NFL are a great talent, especially a first round pick in the NFL.
So let's say the Lions trade their pick down to, oh I don't know, the Seahawks, so now the Lions have the 14th pick, along with the Seahawks 6th pick in the second round and a fourth, maybe even a third. I find that there is more value having the 14th overall pick with 2 high second round picks plus some. So if a good offer is there, I really think the Lions need to consider taking it.
With the 14th pick I see the Lions scooping up a very good DT, maybe not as good as McCoy or Suh, but definitely first round talent. For example: Brian Price (DT from UCLA) or Dan Williams (DT from Tennessee). A solid pick here would definitely sure up a big need on the D-line, and it would give us room to build the defense from the inside out.
My second round suggestions are Kyle Wilson (Corner Back from Boise St) and Vladimir Ducasse (OG from UMass)
In the later rounds I see the Lions sticking to need picks, and maybe a few BAP picks. But the thing to keep in mind is that the Lions are not a bad team, they have a legit QB, an elite WR, and an up and coming TE. The offensive line will improve as the team as a whole gets better.
So in the third round i think the Lions need to take another offensive linemen, or a defensive end. So I would hope for Selvish Capers (OT from West Virginia) or Kyle Calloway (OT from Iowa). Calloway is one of my sleepers in the draft, he is 6'7'' and 320lbs +, he fits the mold for a successful NFL O-Lineman. Lions need that.
Now that we have the fourth round and I think it is one of the most important picks of the draft. There is a lot of value available here. Lions need a number 2 receiver, can Derrick Williams be our guy? Let's give him a little push by picking up another young receiver here. I suggest we go with Carlton Mitchell (WR from South Florida) he's a big guy that I happened to watch quite a bit this season, as I am a big South Florida fan. Otherwise, I could see the Lions going with a defensive end if they haven't already in earlier picks. If so I think CJ Wilson (DE from East Carolina) would be available, and he's a solid player.
Through the fifth, sixth and seventh we take the BAP, some of my late round suggestions are: Riley Cooper (WR from Florida) , Myron Rolle (S from Florida St.) , Larry Asante (S from Nebraska), Kam Chancellor (S from Virginia Tech), JD Walton (C from Baylor), James Starks (RB from Buffalo), Jacoby Ford (WR from Clemson), Max Hall (QB from BYU), and finally Jimmy Graham (TE from Miami)
Also, for Free Agency. The Lions need a big bruising back, Jerome Felton can stay at fullback. LenDale White should be available, I really think he could add a second dimension to the Lions young running game. He would make up for the stinky job K Smith does inside the 20. I could also see the Lions picking up DE Mark Anderson from the Chicago Bears. If the Packers don't resign Atari Bigby, I really think the Lions should give him the money, he would be a lovely compliment to Delmas, although the Lions would have to give up a second round pick in compensation.
That is my Lions off season plan. Maybe it's a little too bold, but I like it. Let me know what you all think!
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Pride of Detroit or its writers. FanPosts are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable fans.
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If they dropped that far
They better get a lot more than a second-round pick.
Pride of Detroit, SB Nation's Lions Blog
+1
Dropping 12 places in the first round is big.
I can see a swap and a 2nd for anyone with in 5 picks or so…. after that its another 1st or 2nd pick to go further.
Use the point system to help you when contemplating moves like these… its not an exact science, but it will get you closer to reality than you are.
+2
Definatly better get a second swap 1st and maybe a 4th. I’ts not a bad plan but trading down at number 2 is almost impossible. Especially with no Sanchez or big name QB to really go after.
The best there is, The best there was, and the best there ever will be - Bret the Hitman hart
by The Profiler on Feb 2, 2010 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
it depends...
on the value of the pick…not in terms of the position, but more in terms of demand. I think if Suh is a high demand player, we could get quite a lot…say even two to three pciks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds + other team’s first rounder.
I hope Suh blows up the combine, and pro day, so teams will want to trade up.
The beginning of the end of the misery
I’m not very high on Ducasse, he was getting pwned at the Senior Bowl. I like LenDale, but he might cost too much. A big NO on Atari Bigby. All he knows how to do is commit pass interference play after play.
I like the trading down idea, but Price or Williams at 14 is a reach when Graham, Iupati, Haden, Thomas, or McClain could still be there. The Lions should get more than 1 extra pick if they drop down 12 spots like you suggested. Just my worthless 2 cents.
Rams
This is based off the Rams taking a QB. The lions do not have a bargaining chip with the overall 2 pick if Suh is not there. But, I am all for trading down and acquiring as many picks as possible.
I dunno.....Tampa would really like one of the two DTs [Suh or McCoy].
If Suh was gone they might be more willing to move up one spot perhaps giving up a second round pick or their third and fourth round picks [I like that better than just a second]. It would mean we miss out on the top tier of DTs and have to settle for the fifth or sixth ranked DT at #34. It means we could get Berry then at #3. Which is maybe how the Lions want to go anyways.
There is this belief by a lot of fans that a number of teams are willing to move up for Suh. I really don’t think this is the case. Teams move up into the top five picks for QBs mainly. I checked and found nine trades in the top five for five QBs [J. George, R. Leaf, M. Vick, E. Manning, M. Sanchez], two RBs [T. Dorsett and R. Williams], one LT [O. Pace] and one WR [D. Howard].
I could be missing a bunch. No specific trades up into the top five for a defensive player that I remember or could find. Anyone know of any?
Since we're offering crazy scenarios...
here is one of my own. We know Tampa wants McCoy or Suh, and lets assume STL takes Suh. Tampa trades with us for the 3rd pick and a 3rd rounder. Now, After us is WAS, more than likely they are in spot to take a QB…and more than likely its Claussen. If there are buyers for Claussen (Seattle, Buffallo…etc), they would want to leap frog WAS. So, then we could trade the 3rd pick with any of those teams and move down and pick up some good extra picks
….One can always dream…..or smoke crack
The beginning of the end of the misery
Yes, I worked out a scenario on paper where we ended up with half of the second round and the top third of the third and fourth rounds.
No depth problems anymore. At least until next year when half the guys bomb out of the league.
Actually, if we keep progressively trading away all of our picks for the following year's picks, for the next ten years...
we can end up with almost every pick in the first three rounds of the 2020 draft.
THAT would be domination. Sure, we’d absolutely suck for the next ten years, only being able to play guys we pick up off the waiver wire, but we have a good core of young guys to run on for the next 6 years or so (CJ, KSmith, Stafford, Delmas, Pettigrew, Hill, Levy), so we couldn’t do much worse than the typical Millen year, could we?
Plus, we’d end up with at least one fresh, talented player every year since we can’t trade away the #1 overall.
And then…ten years from now…THE DYNASTY BEGINS
ya by that time...
someone will have assasinated Mr Ford for running a shitty team, burned down Ford Field cuase of all the bad memories and they would no longer be called the Detroit Lions…they would be the Los Angeles Amigos
The beginning of the end of the misery
Yeah, because the last ten years have been so stellar
Face it, you’d just bend over, grab your ankles, and take it the way we already have been for the last ten years.
Thank you.
I think you have a point
The lions should get a lot more than 1 extra second rounder. Thanks for the suggestion.
Honestly,
I’d rather see the Lions sign Betty White to a roster spot than see them sign Lendale White.
The problem I have with this is...
You suggest that Suh could be a bust. Granted he could. But how much of a bigger set back would it be. If the Lions traded down instead of drafting Suh. And the player we pick at pick 14 becomes a bust?
You call Price and Williams soild picks. And Yes they are, or could be. But still. Wouldn’t Suh be the best pick?
if the shoe fits...get another one just like it - George Carlin
+1
The best there is, The best there was, and the best there ever will be - Bret the Hitman hart
by The Profiler on Feb 2, 2010 12:53 PM EST up reply actions
I gotta disagree
The point is…if Suh is a bust, then we loose both money and the 2nd pick in the draft goes to waste. We move down, then we get…lets say 2 picks…so now we have two chances (two very good chances) for a player to develop. In the long run, if both of those picks (the 14th and the 2nd round 6th pick) pan out, they will have a much greater impact on the team than one player.
The beginning of the end of the misery
That's not really true
One truly elite player has a greater impact on a team then 2 very good players.
Then lets trade all our picks for round 7
We can own the whole round. It will cost like $2 mill for our entire draft class.
I don’t like planning for failure. We are so far in the hole that if we don’t start taking some chances on guys we will never climb out.
its not planning for failure
its basic finance. ROI, based on the evaluation of the player will i receive return on investment?
If not trade down or look at other players that will provide better return. Its not crazy talk, its economics.
Don't really wanna go in depth here...
But look at it this way: last year we got two guys…one late first rounder, one early second rounder: Louis Delmas and Brandon Pettigrew. Apart from a QB (which we already have), can you really see another position player having the same type of impact those two players combined are gonna have on a team? I say no….if u do your scouting properly…which the lions did last year…you can pick up great talent anywhere…it just gets harder and harder as u move down the draft. So, u want to balance both the $$ and potential…and the best place to do that is the 2nd and 3rd rounds.
The beginning of the end of the misery
I disagree on the 2v1 point--sometimes the 1 player is better
can you really see another position player having the same type of impact those two players combined are gonna have on a team? I say no
I think Matthew Stafford, for example, will have a bigger impact overall than Pettigrew + Delmas.
In the same way, Peyton Manning has had a bigger impact than the Colt’s best TE and SS combined, Bob Sanders and Dallas Clark.
It just depends on the players.
i said other than QB
QBs always have a huge impact on their team…thats why so many teams go QB with really high picks
The beginning of the end of the misery
*edit
I wasn’t paying attention where you said “Apart from a QB”, my bad.
I still think there are a lot of individual players who will produce more value than two good players.
Calvin Johnson, for example, may ultimately produce more value than Delmas + Pettigrew, but I expect that one to be close
true...
but lets say we’re not comparing Calvin Johnson, but instead its Charles Rogers…now who would u rather have?
The 2nd pick has huge boom or bust value…if u can hit with the pick, then the guy can definately be a franchise cornerstone…but if u dont…well then you have the Lions.
The beginning of the end of the misery
yeah, that's true, it's definitely boom or bust
Looking at the past 10 years or so, outside of 2009 rookies, I’d usually rather have the #2 guy than #20+#33, but it’s close (6-4).
Year (who I’d rather have: 2 or 20+33)
2008 (2)
Chris Long over Aquib Talib and Donnie Avery
2007 (2)
Calvin Johnson over Aaron Ross and Alan Branch
2006 (20+33)
DeMeco Ryans andTamba Hali over Reggie Bush
2005 (2)
Ronnie Brown over Marcus Spears and David Baas
2004 (20+33)
Karlos Dansby and Kenechi Udeze over Robert Gallery
2003 (20+33)
George Foster and Eric Steinbach over Charles Rogers
…scratch that, I’ll just take Steinbach :-)
2002 (2)
Julius Peppers over Javon Walker and Jabar Gaffney
2001 (20+33)
Drew Brees and Adam Archuleta over Leonard Davis
2000 (2)
LaVar Arrington over Stockar McDougle and Dennis Northcutt
1999 (2)
Donovan McNabb over Ebenezer Ekuban and Kevin Johnson
way I see it
I would take 20+33 over 2 in 2008, 2006, 2004, 2003, definatley 2001. so its half and half, but look at the players that you get with those 5 years. First of all, you got twice the amount of talent, plus there are guys like Brees, Javon Walker, Steinbach, and DeMeco Ryans. they were/are just as good as having McNabb, Ronnie Brown or even Peppers (considering the huge amount of dough he makes)
The beginning of the end of the misery
#2 pick VS #6 + #40
I went back 16 years to try to see who I would rather have in general, the guy selected #2-overall, or the #6 guy and the #40 guy (Seattle has the #6 and #40 pick. I think it’s more likely they’d trade the #6 than the #14 if they did have a trade, since it’s much closer to the #2)
Some of these were close calls, but overall it was a tie. Some of these were very close though, so I’m sure there’s room for argument
Eight years of the past 16, I’d rather have the guy selected #2.
Eight years of the past 16, I’d rather have the guys selected #6 and #40.
YEAR (who I’d rather have: #2 OR #6+#40)
2008 (2)
#2 – Chris Long
#6 – Vernon Gholston
#40 – Tracy Porter
2007 (2)
#2 – Calvin Johnson
#6 – LaRon Landry
#40 – John Beck
2006 (6+40)
#2 – Reggie Bush
#6 – Vernon Davis
#40 – Daniel Bullocks
2005 (2)
#2 – Ronnie Brown
#6 – Pacman Jones
#40 – Josh Bullocks
2004 (6+40)
#2 – Robert Gallery
#6 – Kellen Winslow Jr
#40 – Ben Troupe
2003 (6+40)
#2 – Charles Rogers
#6 – Johnathan Sullivan
#40 – E.J. Henderson
2002 (2)
#2 – Julius Peppers
#6 – Ryan Sims
#40 – Mike Pearson
2001 (6+40)
#2 – Leonard Davis
#6 – Richard Seymour
#40 – Ken Lucas
2000 (6+40)
#2 – LaVar Arrington
#6 – Corey Simon
#40 – Ian Gold
1999 (2)
#2 – Donovan McNabb
#6 – Torry Holt
#40 – Tony Bryant
1998 (6 + 40)
#2 – Ryan Leaf
#6 – Grant Wistrom
#40 – Cameron Cleeland
1997 (6+40)
#2 – Darrell Russell
#6 – Walter Jones
#40 – Dexter McCleon
1996 (2)
#2 – Kevin Hardy
#6 – Lawrence Philips
#40 – Je’Rod Cherry
1995 (2)
#2 – Tony Boselli
#6 – Kevin Carter
#40 – Brian DeMarco
1994 (2)
#2 – Marshall Faulk
#6 – Trent Dilfer
#40 – David Palmer
1993 (6+40)
#2 – Rick Mirer
#6 – Eric Curry
#40 – Michael Strahan
by n4ry4 on Feb 2, 2010 3:59 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
nice
gotta say its half and half looking at those players in terms of whether i would take the two players vs 1.
The beginning of the end of the misery
I disagree on 2006
but I think what this really tells us is that there are busts at every position, and you can never assume that any pick is ever really safe.
yeah, 2006 was a tough one.
Ultimately I went in favor of Vernon Davis’ monster year this past year (78 receptions for 965 yards and 13 TD’s as a TE), whereas Reggie Bush is an exciting player and a good threat on offense, but never had a really dominant season that you’d expect from a #2-overall RB. Plus, who knows whether Daniel Bullocks will ever stay healthy enough to make a modest contribution? maybe…
Depends upon the draft
A lot depends upon the draft as well as the top prospects. Since this is an exceptionally deep draft, you could make the argument that #6 and #40 are likely to be better players than usual. Of course you may think that Suh and McCoy are better than your average #1 and #2.
Given the Lions plethora of needs however, I would vote for more picks rather than the stud pick.
by Lions-fan-SLC on Feb 2, 2010 5:57 PM EST up reply actions
trade won't happen
I’d love to be in Seattle’s shoes. There will be a lot of talent available at #6 and #14 without having to pay a top-5 overall salary.
They will need a tackle to replace Walter Jones, and #6 (if Okung is still there) or #14 (Campbell, Bulaga, Davis, Williams, or whoever) give them great opportunities to do that. They will also need a QB sometime in the near future, and if they like Clausen or Bradford (if either is still on the board, I guess your scenario has STL taking Clausen) they could give one of the QB’s a look at #6 or #14, wherever they didn’t get their tackle. Or they do something different.
I don’t think there’s any realistic chance that Seattle would give up a high second-round pick (that’s a likely starter), and then some, to get stuck paying somebody #2-overall money, even somebody as hyped up as Suh, when they could get a lot more value with the #6, #14, and #37.
teams with the same record "cycle" picks in each round
Seattle, Cleveland, and Oakland all finished 5-11.
Seattle gets the first pick of the three teams in the first round because of SOS.
However, for each additional round, these three teams will cycle the order of picks among themselves to keep it fair, I guess:
round - order
1 – Seattle, Cleveland, Oakland
2 – Cleveland, Oakland Seattle
3 – Oakland, Seattle, Cleveland (actually, Seattle’s pick was traded to Philly)
4 – Seattle, Cleveland, Oakland
5 – Cleveland, Oakland, Seattle
etc.
Most of those guys in rounds 6 and 7
Probably won’t be there. Which is unfortunate since there are some good prospects there.
The Bringers of Hope: Stafford - Delmas - C. Johnson - Pettigrew - Levy - Hill - Schwartz
Zack Follett: he will hurt your mind.
I think this comes down to the fundamental...
discussion not of “will they” but of “can they”. In the past, it just hasn’t been an option because teams are unwilling to pay the exorbitent price it takes to move that high. Would the Lions trade down and take a great deal giving them more picks? Hell, yes. Mayhew is no idiot. He knows how many players are needed to pull this roster into shape. But that’s not the problem. The problem is finding a suitor. It’s always the problem.
If the Lions can get a suitor and value, they will trade down. No doubt in my mind. They need players and LOTS of them. It would be idiocy not to. But… they won’t because they can’t. Unfortunate, but true. They’ll be picking number two this year because they have no other choice… and they’ll get a good player at that spot too. So win-win?
Unless it's Gerald McCoy....
….in which case we can all hail our Charles Rodgers/Ryan Leaf/ Tony Mandarich selection. Yeah, you heard it here first, and I’m sticking by it.
Thank you.
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