Great Article
by DrewsLions on Feb 5, 2010 1:54 PM EST
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PrintJust thought I'd give a link to a great read over on the MLive site:
http://blog.mlive.com/highlightreel/2010/02/lions_martin_mayhew_must_find.html
Should spark some intriguing chatter....
Drew
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Pride of Detroit or its writers. FanPosts are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable fans.
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I am in the camp that agrees with this article completely
I think multiple picks in this draft are far preferred to a silver bullet at the top, and that includes Suh.
I also think Schwartz is from the Belicheck school so I imagine the Lions would love multiple trade downs in this draft.
The problem is pulling it off. the article argues that the trade chart is no longer valid (at least for the highest of picks anyways) and Mayhew will need to think outside the box most likely to trade the pick.
I for one will be anxiously looking forward on that Thursday night when we are on the clock for Goodell to announce “a trade has been made…..”
by HoorayForEverything on Feb 5, 2010 2:34 PM EST reply actions
I agree also...
…so let’s trade Megatron also. We could rebuild our D in one year if we could pull off both trades!!! Next year fix the offense…
Just livin' the dream...
I wholeheartedly disagree on Calvin
He is a proven game changer, not a potential player anymore. Stafford and Calvin should get exponentially better each year together starting 2010.
I don’t think elite WR is a necessity, but it is a gigantic asset and we need all the assets we can get.
by HoorayForEverything on Feb 5, 2010 2:47 PM EST up reply actions
We agree on two fronts here, Hooray...
…both on the trading down and the “not” trading Calvin parts. I also think that this article makes perfect sense of what many try (including myself) to elegantly articulate and that’s the revelation that there is less talent disparity through the first two rounds than most think. Therefore, more picks in the top 100 or so, should be of better overall value than one highly drafted player (this only being true if you have talented evaluators at the helm.) Many top ten picks are not that much more talented than the guys taken 11-32…. especially this year.
The big issue is finding a suitor. Maybe this year is the year someone wants to step up to the plate. I feel – like this article states – that the Jimmy Johnson draft value chart is horribly outdated and that Mayhew should lower his asking price for the #2 pick to make it more enticing. Trust me… I’m a huge Suh fan and would love to see him in Honolulu blue next year, but not at the expense of making the team better by getting more quality players. Suh’s potential is not enough to make me say… hey, let’s not pick up an extra 2nd and 3rd rounder.
That’s the quintessential difference in why not selecting Suh for more draft picks is not the same as trading Calvin for more draft picks. Suh… as tempting and as “can’t miss” as he may seem… is no more than unrealized potential right now. I think he’s going to be a great pro, but the key work there is “think”. I “KNOW” Calvin Johnson is a great player. That’s the difference.
This team has so many holes that we just need more picks. With free agency looking like some severely slim pickins’, we need more draft picks… preferebly in the 2nd – 4th rounds. I say… if you can (which is always the question)… trade down.
+100
The Bringers of Hope: Stafford - Delmas - C. Johnson - Pettigrew - Levy - Hill - Schwartz
Zack Follett: he will hurt your mind.
by Hyperion Ecta on Feb 5, 2010 6:36 PM EST up reply actions
Keep Calvin
Trading Calvin just creates more problems than it fixes, another year of working with Stafford and he’s easily back in the pro-bowl next winter.
As for the article, I’m all for trading down, but I worry about the willingness from other teams to trade up especially from outside of the top 10. If were able to slide back in the first round and acquire another mid-round draft pick, I’m all for it.
The point I like the most is trading our 1st round draft pick from 2011, off the top of my head I can’t think of any major talents in ‘11 that are present in this years draft class. If Mayhew can obtain a second rounder and another in this draft for ’11 pick, I can’t argue with it (bearing in mind who we draft.)
next person says lets trade calvin
should be banned from ford field LOL. Needless to say I disagree with that comment WHOLE HEART
The best there is, The best there was, and the best there ever will be - Bret the Hitman hart
+1
Driver of the Kyle Wilson Tour Bus and Keeper of the Dreadlocks!
Proud supporter of DE Jerry Hughes, safety Earl Thomas, and OG Mike Iupati
(I hear that Eric Berry guy is pretty good, too)
Hey, as long as Zack Follett keeps hitting people, he can rap to Barney the Dinosaur for all I care.
Good article, but I disagree with a few things...
1. Marx, the author, says Suh/McCoy would be a bad fit b/c they are penetrating DT’s not giant DT’s. As others have argued in other threads, I’d rather have an athletic guy who’s still big enough (300+ by the time he’s in the NFL) next to Sammie Hill than two giant, immovable DT’s who can’t collapse the pocket and put heat on the QB.
2. This part is just plain misleading:
What’s relevant here is that like Suh/McCoy, those picks (Harrington, Rogers, R.Williams) … were no-brainers.
How much heat will Mayhew take if he selects one of those two and they prove to be busts? Little.
How much heat will he take if he trades down and the guy he left is a perennial Pro Bowler?
If that thought process creeps in for even an instant, look back at those statistics: nine percent chance Suh makes one Pro Bowl; eight percent chance he doesn’t become a regular starter; eight percent chance he ends up a total bust.
He’s taking stats that apply to all first-round picks (he said so earlier int he article). Not all #2-overall picks. Not all top-5 picks, all first-rounders (so presumably, riskier guys and less talented guys who weren’t valued enough to go #2, or even #12 or #22 are in those averages too, because they were first-rounders).
In fact, when you look at the past ten years worth of top-5 players (who have had at least 3 years in the league, so 1998-2007), more than 50% of top-5 players made at least one Pro Bowl.
YEAR (top 5 picks to make at least one Pro Bowl)
2007 (1/5) J.Thomas
2006 (3/5) M.WIlliams, V.Young, D.Ferguson
2005 (2/5) R.Borwn, B.Edwards
2004 (4/5) E.Manning, L.Fitzgerald, P.Rivers, S.Taylor
2003 (3/5) C.Palmer, A.Johnson, T.Newman
2002 (1/5) J.Peppers
2001 (4/5) M.Vick, L.Davis, J.Smith, L.Tomlinson
2000 (3/5) L.Arrington, C.Samuels, J.Lewis
1999 (3/5) D.McNabb, E.James, R.Williams
1998 (2/5) P.Manning, C.Woodson
That’s 26/50, 27 when Calvin Johnson makes the Pro Bowl (anyone honestly think he won’t?).
I’m still not naive enough to believe Suh/McCoy is guaranteed to be an NFL star. But I think the author here is greatly understating their potential value (including risk & reward).
Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy (presuming they are top-5 picks) has a 54% chance of becoming a Pro Bowl player, not an 9% chance. The bust risk is lower too, but yes, it is still a real risk.
At the same time, I do agree with the general gist of the article. This is a deep draft There is a lot of value later in the first and into the second, and I would not be disappointed by a trade-down at all.
Hell, I would trade from #2 to any pick in the top 10 just to pick up an extra second-rounder. I’d trade from #2 to any pick in the next ten (11-20) just to pick up an extra second- and third-rounder. I’d trade to the bottom third of the first round for an extra 2nd- 3rd- and 2nd next year, or 3rd next year, or some reasonable combo of those.
But I wouldn’t fault Mayhew if a trade-down doesn’t happen, for two reasons:
1. Sometimes a trade offer just plain isn’t there. I’d love it if there was at least one GM who is drunk on “OMG SUH! (or OMG McCOY)”, but it just might not happen. It is entirely possible that all the other GM’s show up sober for draft day and realize that top-5 picks are bad values. We couldn’t trade out of #1 last year, I don’t expect that we can trade out of #2 this year. Mayhew is not the only GM who knows this is a deep draft.
2. Even if they do pick a guy up there at #2 (whoever it is), he can’t be judged a bad pick until he’s played a few seasons. No matter how frustrated we all feel about his rookie contract, he still gets a chance to prove what he can do. I think Mayhew, after going against the wishes of the majority of fans (Stafford over Curry, Delmas over Maualuga), has earned the benefit of my doubt.
And I do agree that we should look for a RB in the 1st or 2nd.
by n4ry4 on Feb 5, 2010 3:05 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Great points, n4ry4
I agree with a lot of what you said. I also don’t agree with the notion that neither Suh nor McCoy doesn’t fit the Lion’s mold purely based on size and strength alone. Personally, I think both of these guys play much stronger than their weight anyway. We may have to tinker with scheme a bit, but that’s what you do with talented players… you make them fit.
As for the risk/reward thing of #2 picks, your stats are good but I think they are slightly missing the author’s point. I think what he is saying is that every team pegs every #2 overall player as a can’t miss future pro-bowler. Therefore, Mayhew will be given little slack if he drafts a consensus #2 in McCoy and McCoy busts. The thinking here is that any team in that same position would have done the same thing. He’s applying that same principle to Harrington, Rogers and Williams as well, saying that most other teams had them on their boards high enough for the Lions to draft them as legitimate contenders as future pro bowl players.
And I agree with that sentiment, because when was the last time you took a guy in the top 5 and thought, “eh… I just hope he’s a decent depth guy”. You don’t think that way. If you take a player at the top, you are completely sold on the fact he is going to be a cornerstone of your franchise, because he is going to be paid like it. I agree that there is more risk/reward than the author mentions, but I think his point is more geared around the “perceived risk” Mayhew would be taking in trading down for less, when statistics indicate trading down has lesser risk than picking high. I hope that makes sense? LOL
Anyway, I thought your comments were excellent…. as always.
I like the "completely sold" part
If the Lions are completely sold, or in other words “totally in love with” Suh or McCoy or Berry or “Mario Williams 2010” then I think they should draft him and go for it.
If they are not, and are simply picking the best fit for #2, then I really really really hope that at least 1 of the 30 teams remaining are “completely sold” on someone and trade up…..
by HoorayForEverything on Feb 5, 2010 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
heres somthing i don't get about the weight issue
its not like these guys can’t add weight to their frame. Yes, by adding more weight, they will get a little slower, a little less agile, but DTs in our scheme don’t need to be super fast anyways. I think Suh could easily add 8 lbs, and move up to 313 lbs without sacrificing agility or speed. Thats not the man-beast DT we’re looking for, but thats not small either. in fact, thats only 17 lbs less than Sammie Hill, and Suh is stronger than Hill to begin with.
The beginning of the end of the misery
they were
sold on Stafford and look we have a solid starter over what most of Detroit wanted to do
… after last year.. I believe the Lions draft decisions will be solid…. it sounds like a lock on the #2 unless there is one hell of a deal to allow them to trade down.. it would have to be a good deal to make them move down. Prepare for a long 10 – 15 minutes on the 2nd pick of the draft THEY WILL WAIT till the last minute to make the pick.
Are you excited or wjhat to maybe the biggest draft we’ve had to get to the next stage of rebuilding (3-7 wins?)
GO LIONS in 2010! the transformation starts now.. they have much to do.
Great response n4ry4.
Some other points:
1. Trading – I thought it was common knowledge that Millen tried to trade out of picking Calvin and got some [one?] terrible offer. There is no point in trading down to save money while reducing the likelihood of selecting an impact player. The Lions record with Free Agents, where I assume the money is going, is arguably worse than with draft picks.
2. Please stop the “not fitting the scheme” comments. It really does make Lions fans look foolish. That was one of those standard comments that coaches make…..like….“we want to run the ball more”……..“we need to pressure the QB”………“we need to stop the run”….that in the end, mean nothing. I am hearing the same comments about the type of CB the lions want. “A CB you can leave on an island”? Really? Do any teams draft CBs that will always need help underneath or over the top? Maybe in the fifth round or later.
Suh and McCoy are both great fits for any team that uses a 4-3 defence. The bad fits are 3-4 DEs or Nose Tackles. Especially two down Nose Tackles. We already have a young guy like that. Develop him.
3. Of course if they get a great offer, they should take it. Personally they should try and keep a pick in the first six or seven and get an additional second round or a third and fourth rounder. But I will leave the valuation to Mayhew.
millen
knew of the drug issues with Rogers… RED FLAG… Andre Johnson should be a Lion PERIOD…
but most publications had Rogers as a no brainer and he was a local product.. thus more ticket sales…. A tough decision.. it’s easy for me to go back… and gripe … Could Harrington and Andre Johnson coexisted… probably not… but then maybe they could have… Joey could have gotten the confidence as was expected with Rogers and been the QB we needed. Rogers shoulder injury and drug issue screwed Millen the Lions and Harrington. it’s all a gamble on the picks… but with the new crew here i feel a lot more confident in the draft!!!!!
GO LIONS in 2010! the transformation starts now.. they have much to do.
Good point! That revelation has bothered the hell out of me since I heard it.
There is a reason you investigate these guys. You are trying to minimize the risk.
What I don’t understand in this case is that a perfectly good [equal] alternate was sitting right in front of them and they took Rogers anyways. I think I might have understood if there were no other WRs valued as highly and they decided to go ahead to meet a dire team need, but ………ahhh fuggeddaboutit!
2011
Since most of you have echoed my sentiments, I just want to say that I agree with the possibility of trading 2011 picks for more picks this year. I think most of the good players that would have been in next years draft have come out this year due to the salary cap and I would rather have more picks this year. I am usually not in favor of trading the future to fix problems now, but with this draft and this team – I think it would be the right thing to do if we could pull it off.
forgot
The advantage we have in this scheme is that with the Lions, most people believe that our future draft picks will continue to be high picks (even if we get more picks in 2010 and pick up some great players, I suspect that this is probably true for 2011, but I hope not beyond).
A combination of trading down and trading future picks would be incredible, but if we cannot get out of #2 I can see trading future picks as a way to get more action in this current draft.
by Lions-fan-SLC on Feb 5, 2010 6:23 PM EST up reply actions
I'd love to trade down
Having extra picks in the 2nd to 5th round range could be vital. In the process of doing my research I’ve found a multitude of prospects that I’ve been very impressed with, much more than a usual draft. Surprisingly enough, a lot of the deeper positions in the draft are what we are looking for- WR, DT, DE, CB, S. Just a couple of extra picks could change our draft from 4-5 (like last year) quality rookies to 6-7.
The Bringers of Hope: Stafford - Delmas - C. Johnson - Pettigrew - Levy - Hill - Schwartz
Zack Follett: he will hurt your mind.
Here is my take
If they are not completely sold on a guy they could just trade down to the next spot, even trade. Hear me out. THis would save money on a rookie contract plus, we don’t have the risk of reaching for players.
hate to say this
I don’t thin it would happen but. We could always just let the clock expire and pick later. We wouldn’t gain anything for it obviously but it could save some money.
The best there is, The best there was, and the best there ever will be - Bret the Hitman hart
by The Profiler on Feb 6, 2010 10:11 AM EST up reply actions
I doubt that happens
Unless the team below really wants someone at our pick. By trading up, the team we trade with will have a bigger financial commitment
The beginning of the end of the misery
Great find, Drew
This article def gets one thinking what the FO might do. Draft day could get very interesting
God Damn...!
The offseason is really almost as fun as these regular seasons have been. Nice article, very interesting read.
"Under certain circumstances, profanity provides a relief denied even to prayer." -Mark Twain
another interesting article
According to nflmocks.com, the rams have Sam Bradford atop their leaderboard if he passes a physical.
Ah, the QB rumors gain momentum
Now we watch the media gear up for the “Will the Rams take Clausen or Bradford” debate, with its associated hype. The media will come around, the Rams will also come around (if they haven’t already). We are witnessing the first steps of a fait accompli. By Draft Day, not only will the Rams take a QB #1, but by then the media will even expect it. The Suh at #1 rumors lose traction starting today.
Honorary Driver of the Kyle Wilson Bus and Keeper of the Dreadlocks!
The 313 Missile Squadron: Delmas, Berry, Wilson......seek and destroy!
Hey, as long as Zack Follett keeps hitting people, he can rap to Barney the Dinosaur for all I care.
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