2010 NFL Draft Grades - Detroit Lions
by Sean Yuille on Apr 26, 2010 12:06 PM EDT
in NFL Draft
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PrintI personally am not a big fan of handing out draft grades simply because it takes time to see how a class will pan out, but I realize that part of the fun of the draft is grading the picks. I feel kind of bad just giving out random letter grades without it being based on a certain criteria, but thankfully Chris Pokorny of Dawgs By Nature (SB Nation's Browns blog) has developed a system to follow for draft grades.
1. Player Potential?
2. Expected to Start This Year?
3. Good Value for the Round Chosen (aka Not a Reach)?
4. Filled a Position of Need?
5. Does the Pick Have Fan Approval?
The way the criteria translate into a specific grade is you run down the list and see how the pick fits each question. If the player has potential, for example, then give him a check mark. If he doesn't, then give him an X instead. When you are all finished, the number of check marks a player has will determine the grade. From there I personally adjusted the grades with a +/- if I felt that was necessary. Obviously this is a very unscientific formula since the criteria are heavily opinion based, but it's better than just pulling out a random letter grade.
So, below is my take on the Lions' draft class and what grades each player should receive (the numbers in the columns correspond to the questions asked in the quote above). Keep in mind that for this post I am only considering the players picked. I already handed out an A to the Lions for their draft class based on how picks were used to acquire likely starters and all that (those players would pretty much have check marks across the board). For this post, however, I'm strictly looking at the Lions' draft picks.
| Rd. | # | Player | Pos. | College | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Grade |
| 1 | 2 | Ndamukong Suh | DT | Nebraska | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | A+ |
| 1 | 30 | Jahvid Best | RB | California | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | A- |
| 3 | 66 | Amari Spievey | CB | Iowa | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | B+ |
| 4 | 128 | Jason Fox | OT | Miami (FL) | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | B- |
| 7 | 213 | Willie Young | DE | N.C. State | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | C |
| 7 | 255 | Tim Toone | WR | Weber State | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | C |
| OVERALL | B | |||||||||
(Explanation after the jump)
Starting at the top with Ndamukong Suh, there's not a lot to say. He is a great pick in my opinion and I bumped him up to an A+ since he shouldn't be someone who develops into a starter, but rather is a starter from the very beginning. That's where things differ a bit with Jahvid Best, who got an A-. I love the pick and gave him five check marks, but Best is not an every-down type of player. He could easily start if Kevin Smith is still injured, but even if he doesn't start, Best is someone that is going to be on the field in different situations to make plays. Considering that I gave him a check mark for the "Expected to start?" criteria, even though he may not technically be in the starting lineup.
For Amari Spievey, I bumped him up to a B+ because I think he will develop into a starter during the 2010 season much like DeAndre Levy did last year. I don't necessarily expect him to start from the very beginning, though it's possible due to the Lions' lack of depth at the position. I do think he will be a starter eventually, which is why I bumped him up to a B+.
Jason Fox was bumped down to a B- because he is more of a project. The Lions got good value considering some draft sites had him going as high as the second round, but Fox looks like a player that will take a season or two to develop into a potential starter rather than just a backup. Either way, that is a good move when you consider that the Lions weren't exactly looking for a starting-caliber tackle in this year's draft. They feel comfortable with Jeff Backus at left tackle, and although I doubt they have as much faith in Gosder Cherilus at right tackle, the fourth round is not usually where you find offensive lineman who can start in their rookie season.
Seventh-round picks are much tougher to judge, so I gave Willie Young and Tim Toone a pair of C grades. Neither player is expected to start (obviously) and didn't really fill a position of big need, but the seventh round is a lot different than the first four, so it's necessary to take that into account when giving out grades.
Overall, I gave the Lions a B simply for the picks they made. Again, if you take into account all of the picks the Lions used to acquire proven players, the overall grade would easily be bumped up to an A for me. For the picks alone, though, I like that Suh and Best will be able to contribute from day one, that Spievey and Fox have the potential to develop into solid players over time, and that the seventh-round picks weren't completely out there or anything. To me this was a solid draft that added talent to the roster, including at positions of need, which is all you can really ask for as the Lions continue to rebuild their roster.
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i think it's up in the air whether spievey will start or not
"Football isn't a contact sport, it's a collision sport. Dancing is a contact sport."
--Duffy Daugherty
by GhostManOnThird on Apr 26, 2010 12:12 PM EDT reply actions
Spievey will start by mid-season
Here’s my rationale: It’s safe to say that Chris Houston has been penciled in at one of the starting spots, with Spievey only having to battle it out with Eric King, Jonathan Wade, etc for the remaining 2 spots. Would Spievey start as a rookie for other NFL teams? Possibly not. But due to the lack of talent at the CB position on the Lions roster, he’ll have an outstanding chance at locking down one of the CB spots.
Personally, I love the Spievey pick. He was an underrated CB and fits the Lions defense perfectly. I think Lions fans are going to learn to love this guy.
It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it ~Aristotle
by BriansLions on Apr 26, 2010 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Not at CB.....at Safety
Amari Spievey has all the tools plus great acceleration for a great safety. He hits had and not affraid of the run. Amari Spievey will start, but not as a CB.
He's a Corner
Spievey is and was drafted as a Cornerback. Straight from Mayhew’s mouth:
“I think he fits our defense. It’s hard nowadays to find corners who are really solid tacklers, who are really physical players and this guy plays the game that way.”
I know its been awhile but...
…does Spievey remind anyone of a certain other corner who was a physical player, solid tackler, but supposedly lacked “elite speed”. Now, I’m not saying Spievey is Kevin Ross, but the seed is definitely there.
by Mister Gloom on Apr 26, 2010 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions
In the past 2 years....
How many tackles were missed in the secondary? More than I tackled my own ‘dummy’ in those years.
i’ll actually gop to a preseason game just to see how these guys jel!
GO LIONS in 2010! the transformation starts now.. they have much to do.
i think. . .
this draft added five potential starters. . .Suh, Best, Williams, Sims, and Houston. . .with the possibility of Spievey beating someone out in camp. . .i remember last year everyone was giving the Bears and A for their draft because they brought in Jay Cutler. . .I think this is the best draft the Lions have had in decades. . .we addressed so many needs and I believe that our GM an coach are on the same page which is also something I haven’t seen in a long time. . .it must piss Millen off something fierce to see his former underling garnering so much praise throughout the NFL ranks. . .
Millen did an excellent job of showing Mayhew what not to do.
Everything that asshole does turns to shit. Just look at his stupid comment concerning Jaworski. ESPN proving their stupidity by bringing him in repeatedly to analyze things he really knows very little about. Millen’s only productive days were on the field decades ago. He is nothing more than a punchline now.
"Take it off the rack, if it's wack, put it back. I like the Whopper, fuck the Big Mac." - Rob Base, It Takes Two, 1988
+10000000000
"A child of five would understand this. Send someone to fetch a child of five." ~Groucho Marx
WR
I know we have alot of recievers on the team but I still feel that WR is a need mainly for the slot because of how badly our recievers did last year (other than CJ). We have CJ and Nate for 1 and 2 now and we still need a 3. But you could also look at toone as a KR wich could always use an upgrade.
by Motown_Soldier on Apr 26, 2010 12:32 PM EDT reply actions
My only argument against that is this
it appears we will do a lot of work out of 2TE sets. With that said, I think Bryant Johnson as a 3rd WR is fine, with the possibility of D Williams beating him out for the slot spot (I know he was a disappointment last year but he was a 3rd round rookie). Just my thoughts, but I believe the use of the 2TE sets will cancel out the need for the 3rd WR
VP of Membership, Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by JoelZumayaKegStand on Apr 26, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Scheffler will be the slot
I think Scheffler is in the slot most often.
CJ-Nate-Scheffler-Pettigrew with 2 set back Best-KSmith could be deadly
I think you will see Chef get most of the slot reps, and sometimes Best will flex out there too
Aaron Brown, Derrick Williams, Time Toone, and Michael Moore might get a shot if they make the team, that should be clearer as to my lines of thinking.
I thought that KR/PR was a need and that is why we drafted Toone
So technically he does fill a need. Also, if Willie Young ends up playing LB then he will have filled a need too.
I don’t understand how Spievey and Fox both have 4/5 on the checklist but one is a B+ and one is a B-
I think we had a great draft and I wouldn’t give it less than an A-, the the – being for not doing more to get depth in the secondary.
by WestsideLionsFan on Apr 26, 2010 12:54 PM EDT reply actions
Read the whole post
He explains that it is based off the checklist, but then very subjective.
My two favorite teams are the Tigers and Brewers. Drunk tigers. That sounds about right.
Me in 140 characters
Actually...
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/384343-ladies-and-gentlemen-meet-the-newest-detroit-lions#page/6
This is a convincing bit about him that says otherwise. I personally hope for him to play line backer and based on what I read here it just makes too much sense.
Actually I listened to his conference call to the detroit media on the Lions site where they asked
Will you be used as a DE or LB?
And he replied “I am going to be a DE”
So I would put my stock into that not some bloggers opinion.
To sum it up
When you look at this, and read the whole thing, since Matt (Stafford) was the one put on the carpet wouldn’t it make sense that it was a Georgia Bulldog? If its not a Bulldog it has to be someone that Stafford played against in college that was a real pain in the ass. IMO I think it was the free agent LB they picked up from the Florida Gators, Stamper.
"We were talking about a linebacker today in the draft, and I’m not going to give you his name, and I love him," Cunningham said. "Nobody else thinks he can do what I think he can do. But I saw it. And Jim saw it. And Matt was put on the carpet, if we draft him and he doesn’t play the first game, he’s fired. …
Here is another tidbit about Stamper
Stamper told the Orlando Sentinel he also had interest from the Dolphins, Bills and his hometown Jaguars. It’s likely he chose the Lions because their lack of depth at linebacker gives him a better shot to make the team. According to the Sentinel, former Gators defensive coordinator Charlie Strong liked to rave about Stamper’s ability to play all three linebacker positions. And you know what coach Jim Schwartz thinks about multidimensional players.
Then you have the fact that WIllie Young ran a 4.81/4.91 40 Yard time
http://www.mlive.com/lions/index.ssf/2010/04/lions_grab_defensive_end_willi.html
http://apps.detnews.com/apps/blogs/lionsblog/index.php?blogid=2126
“There’s a guy at Florida, his name is Spikes, he’s rated one of the top linebackers coming out,” Cunningham said. "He runs 5-flat (in the 40-yard dash.) So I went and scratched him off. And (Alabama’s Rolando) McClain is a 4.75 guy. I’ve got this 10-year history — I just keep looking and studying — and no linebacker has ever played, except one, who ran less than 4.75 and that’s (Curtis) Lofton at Atlanta, who’s a really fine player.
Now you look at his combine workout and see the athleticism
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-combine/09000d5d816e3910/2010-Combine-workout-Willie-Young
and thing sure this guy could play LB. But all the references point to Ryan Stamper as the “mystery line backer”. When you look at it all this guys sounds a lot like Levy last year.
Ryan Stamper of Florida, agent Garriet Blair confirmed. Stamper led the Gators last season with 78 tackles and started all 14 games, with 12 at weak side and two in the middle. Stamper (6-feet-1, 237 pounds) is not considered to be a great athlete, but he reads and reacts well and is a wrap-up tackler. Stamper was projected to be a possible late-round draft pick, and he likely would serve in a backup capacity and help on special teams.
It doesn't make sense to me...
That after all the talk about Cliff Avril being too underweight to play defensive end that they would go draft another defensive end who weighs even less that him. I’d wait to see where the Lions put Young until after the pre-season. It just makes more sense for Willie Young to play line backer than to have him play d-line. And as far as the Stamper stuff goes, I’m not going to buy very much into what Gunther has to say, especially after he pretty much said if Follet didn’t replace ernie sims he would kill him.
MLB
He’s an agile guy with good speed and decent ability to shrug off blockers. All of that combined with his decent ability to tackle he has ILB written all over him! Like was pointed out it’s not so likely they would want another “undersized” DE ala Avril. I dont know, but it just seems to fit for him as an ILB. It would free up Levy to shine back at OLB.
That, along with quite a few other things have me eagerly waiting to see how they wrangle this team together! I can’t wait for a Day 1 bowl of Bear suhp.
They say some people never go crazy.... what a boring life that must be!!
a guy like
that translated to an ILB in a 3-4. Like Teddy Bruski did when he went pro. not MLB in a 4-3. Just not enough open field speed.
I have a 9" personality
by Waitingfortheroar on Apr 28, 2010 2:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Also for people looking at the LB spot and trying to fill it, look for us to sign a free agent
The front office is leaving money to sign late releases in free agency, and they have not signed Adam Jones yet. That tells me they anticipate someone coming loose, someone that will demand a decent salary. I have no Ideas on CB, but I have suspected that New England will release or trade AT for some time now. Don’t know if he can play 4-3 LB or not.
5 year projection
My opinion on what a top 4-round pick needs to do over the next 5 years to justify an A.
Suh: Hopefully a pro-bowler, but if he’s just a really good DT than the Lions did well enough. Likes the rest of you, I’m very excited to see this guy in action on Week 1.
Best: Honestly if this guy is an every down back I’ll be shocked. But if he’s still playing for the Lions in 5 years than I guess I’d agree that this pick was an A. I feel like I’m in the minority on this site but I see this guy as a 10 touch per game guy, not an every down back.
Spievey: As a high 3rd rounder, I think he needs to be a regular starter in 5 years. A steady, dependable vet. Oh and he has to be better than Will James in year 1, but I don’t mean to set the bar too low.
Fox: I hate that we traded down in the 4th, but assuming Best works out, I think low 4th was a good spot to pick this guy. Similar to Spievey, I think the best we can hope for is a steady, dependable presence on the line, maybe even as a career 3rd tackle.
In sum, any grades today are really more an indication of your outlook on life (optimistic or pessimistic). Being a Lions fan, I lean more towards the latter, so I’m nervous about Best, Spievey and Fox.
Hopefully, the Lions current vets and coaching staff will help these guys reach their max potential.
Best shouldn’t be our every down back. You don’t need to touch the ball 30 times a game to be a significant contributor. He’s gonna be given his 10-15 touches and a few big plays will be expected. The other fact is he will keep guys in the box on opposing Defenses whenever he’s in the backfield because of his speed, i.e. helping Staff by drawing defenders away from CJ, Nate, and Scheffler (yup Scheff’s gonna be a stud.)
Best = the Lions Reggie Bush (something must have worked cause they got some big fat rings now)
Best will be the Lions Chris Johnson
Schwartz say the drafting of Best is like what happened 2 years ago in Tennessee in drafting C. Johnson (both late round 1 picks)
I see Best having a chance to be as good as C. Johnson. He is a little bit bigger and 20 lbs heavier with better hands.
Schwartz say he sees the Lions having the opportunity using Best much the same way Tenn uses Johnson and Best has better receiving ability
receptions
You sure have that right! Between Best and Scheffler Matt’s going to have some wicked options for dumping off the ball. We’re going to see A LOT less blitzes once teams realize how easy it is for the quick dump to Best and from there see it’s all assholes and elbows to the end zone!!
They say some people never go crazy.... what a boring life that must be!!
i agree with the bush comparison
though i don’t think bush was a key reason NO won the super bowl. i think best will be helpful in the facets that you outlined, i just think the lions will need to go out and get a few more pieces before they become contenders. namely, an every down back.
by redwingxviii on Apr 26, 2010 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Fox...
…I think Fox could be better than Cherilus is now by the start of year 2, assuming his health is good.
by Mister Gloom on Apr 26, 2010 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions
In lieu of drafted players alone...
The draft was a solid B. The polls that were done also showed that most people believe that the Lions had the best draft of all. This is very encouraging to me, as this makes 2 straight drafts where I feel we were very close to, if not having, the best draft of all 32 teams. If we can continue to draft in this same manner for a couple more years, we will have a top 10 team for years to come.
I agree with you Sean, if you take into account the traded picks that allowed us to acquire Sims, Houston, and Williams, this draft is easily an A.
Oh you didn't know?? You're ass better CALLLLLLLL SOMEBODY!!!!!
I've got to disagree
And I find myself more in agreement with Mike Silver: Your first two rounds should be starters, your later picks should be backups.
As it is, our first two picks are starters. Spievey is more than likely also a starter, if not at the beginning of the year, by the bye week. Fox, for all everyone says ‘project’, has all the physical tools (and an extensive history at Miami) that makes him quite able to start, even if not at LT like he was in college. 3+ starters in one draft? That’s a solid A.
[...]when Giants coach Steve Owen, a certified defensive genius, was asked how he planned to stop Nagurski, he said: "With a shotgun, as he’s leaving the dressing room."
Though I agree with the spirit of if this is a good pick I would have different questions
1. Player Potential?
This is a good question to ask and people should think of it in terms of, will they be a starter within 3 years
2. Expected to Start This Year?
This is a bad question, I think this should instead be: Will this be an impact player?
3. Good Value for the Round Chosen (aka Not a Reach)?
This is a very subjective question and instead I would as: Does the player fit the teams schemes and character profiles?
4. Filled a Position of Need?
Fair enough question I have no real issues here.
5. Does the Pick Have Fan Approval?
Totally irrelevant, if they are a good player and or pick they will have fan approval in a year or two anyways even if fans did not like the pick.
!!!
Who are the shit heads who voted F on the poll! You all know very well that the Lions did better than F
Using that criteria
Suh – I don’t think there’s any doubt that this is an A pick. A man with mammoth-sized potential who should be our starting DT for the next 10+ years. Some may say that a DT is too high at #2, but when your talking about Suh, your talking about the best player in this draft, that to me says he should be at the top of the draft. Suh also fills the need in the middle of our defensive line, where our inside pass rush was lacking.
Grade: A+
Best – Best has a lot of upside, and may be our star running back of the future. And while I don’t think we’ll see Best necessarily start this year, I think we’ll see him take a lot of carries this season. Was he a bit of a reach? I say no, Best was always thought to be a late 1st-early 2nd pick, well, we got him late in the 1st, which seems to fit to me. I also think that Best fills our specific need at RB beautifully. We didn’t need a feature back, we needed a playmaker, someone who could relieve the pressure off both Stafford and CJ. Best is that sort of player.
Grade: A
Spievey – I think Amari is an underrated corner who fits our style of play well and has the potential to be a good starting corner for us down the road. While I don’t think he will start right away, I do expect him to see quite a lot of playing time, and he may win a starting job sometime during the season. I also think Spievey was chosen at the right spot. I don’t really think he was a reach or anything. And as we all know, CB is a HUGE need.
Grade: B+
Fox – Fox is a bit of a project, and that’s fine with me since he is a 4th rounder. A very athletic tackle, I expect him to fill the depth role nicely and if all goes well, we may have a replacement for Backus in a few years in Fox. I don’t expect to see him get a whole lot of play time but that’s cool with me. He’s a good pick in the 4th and will hopefully fill a future need cheaply.
Grade: B-
Young – Young is one of our stranger picks, and since he’s a 7th rounder, I don’t think that’s a problem.
"Zack Follett: he will hurt your mind." - Pride Leader, Sean Yuille, wielder of the Ban Hammer.
2010 Wests Tigers : Current record - 4-2 : Current Position - 7th : Last game - Defeated by Canterbury Bulldogs 24 - 4
by Hyperion Ecta on Apr 26, 2010 8:02 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Oops....pressed the wrong button....Continued....
Young – Young is one of our stranger picks, and since he’s a 7th rounder, I don’t think that’s a problem. He is a very similar player to Avril, someone who’s a little on the light side, but who can rush the passer and make plays against the run. I think Young has the potential to be a solid rotational guy in our system. Do I expect him to see lots of playing time this year? No, not exactly, I think we’ll see bits and pieces of him, but not a lot at this early stage. As for the two last criteria, I don’t think Young was a reach, I actually think he was good value in the 7th, and as for whether he fills a need, I’m unsure, depth is important so that’s where he might find his place.
Grade: C+
Toone – Mr. Irrelevant. Potential? I’m not sure, maybe. Playing Time? Little, maybe as a returner. Value? It’s the last pick, value isn’t very relevant. Need? Sorta, WR isn’t a huge strong suite of ours, but I don’t think Toone gonna change much in that regard.
Grade: C-
Overall: I think if you take into account what we did with our other picks, you just have to give this an A. For me, I’m going with A-.
"Zack Follett: he will hurt your mind." - Pride Leader, Sean Yuille, wielder of the Ban Hammer.
2010 Wests Tigers : Current record - 4-2 : Current Position - 7th : Last game - Defeated by Canterbury Bulldogs 24 - 4
by Hyperion Ecta on Apr 26, 2010 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think your total grade is more accurate than Sean's
You have to weight the overall value of the pick. A first round A and a 7th round C do not average out to a B, since the value of the first rounder is much much higher. I think this draft deserves an A-/B+. If the Lions had no 7th round picks, their total score would go up, which I think is strange.
That said, it’s all just nitpicking at this point. I’m pretty psyched about the draft haul. Not as thrilled as I was last year, but definitely pumped.
I might be crazy but, I think K smoove got
replaced in this draft. He is a 3rd down back who will get carries here and there. Best will get around 20 touches a game. and with our 2 other backs Kevin is gonna be more of a pass catcher and goal line guy with felton.
I have a 9" personality
by Waitingfortheroar on Apr 26, 2010 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Grades
While we can all agree some picks seem to be better than others, it really is BS to try and be so definitive at this point. I mean really, how can any of us grade out how a person is going to work out in the system or even league yet. If you want to come up with some grades that actually mean anything lets come back here in 2013 or so and do this story. If you want to do this sort of story now and have it mean anything do the 2007 draft report. Then again I think we all know how that would look lol!
They say some people never go crazy.... what a boring life that must be!!
correction
Well ok, perhaps we could do some sort of grading story on this years draft. These are questions that can be answered with great certainty to measure these players.
1. The psychic friends hotline told me this guy will play well? (99c/min charges will appear on your phone bill)
2. The team sucks enough at this spot I THINK this guy should start?
3. Mel Kiper, Scouts Inc, or some other professional guesstimater blowhard GUESSED that he would be drafted higher so omgomgomg he was a steal so I can feel really good about this. I only ever saw a youtube highlight clips of him and it ROCKED so we did great!!!
4. Filled a Position of Need?
5. Do watching his youtube highlight clips get you aroused?
I do have to confess that I also engage in the mental masturbation of trying to grade the draft and things like kvetching about the pick I thought would have better. It’s all fun, but also important to recognize it for what it is.
They say some people never go crazy.... what a boring life that must be!!
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