Roster Evaluation - 2009 Lions (and free agents)
by ChicoWong on Apr 6, 2010 12:42 AM EDT
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PrintNote from Sean - Bumped to the front page. Must read. (Originally posted at 7:50 p.m. on April 5; time updated to be the top post on the page.)
Shifting gears out of the draft for a bit, I thought I'd take a data driven look at how individual Lions players did last year, along with some of the free agents we've picked up in the offseason. In the post below, I'll take a look at how our players ranked in their position groups across the league and see where the conventional wisdom may be on and off target.
What got me going on this one was a recent ESPN Football Today podcast. Matt Williamson (Scouts Inc.) had Daniel Jeremiah (Move the Sticks) on as a guest, and their discussion turned to the Lions #2 pick. I respect and follow both guys' work, and it was interesting to hear the consensus - DT is a need for the Lions, Suh should be the pick, there's a perception that LT is a need and Okung is under consideration, but actually Backus is a top 15 tackle and perfectly serviceable for a couple years. Their conclusion was that the Lions would draft a guard in the 3rd or 4th round and take care of pass protection that way.
This reminded me of something that got ridiculed a while back in the national media as well as in mouse and keyboard draft analyst circles: Schwartz saying that Backus had a "Pro Bowl" season.
I remembered scratching my head on this one at the time. I'd just watched 16 Lions regular season games (thank you DirecTV and a very patient wife), and one of my takeaway memories from the season was our QBs running around, getting pummeled, or both in rapid succession. I'm no scout, but our pass protection sucked, didn't it? Isn't left tackle a big part of pass protection? Did "Sackus" actually play well?
Those questions got me curious, so I dug up a website I've checked out a few times in the past (profootballfocus.com) to see if I could get some answers. Rather than spend a lot of time on their methodology (which you can explore more here if you'd like) I'll summarize - these guys look at every play for every player in every game and grade that player on a set of position-specific criteria. They generate ratings for every player, and at the end of the year, you can rank players in each position by their season rating. Basically, it's a well researched way to get both a relative value (e.g., a player is a +9.3 or a -21.6) AND an ordinal ranking (e.g., a player is 13th out of 84 or 82nd out of 84 guys in a position).
CAVEAT - all the following is based on Pro Football Focus' ratings and rankings. I think they do good work, but I watch football on the couch with a beer and munchies. If you're skeptical, check the website out yourself and assess if you find them credible. From here on out, I basically treat their data like gospel and draw conclusions from them - you're totally in your rights to disagree.
What I've done below is basically take the Pro Football Focus data and pull out the Lions' roster from last year so you can see it all in one place. I've added in some of our free agent pickups (in italics) so you can see how those guys fared last year on their old teams. For each player, you can see their rating (PFF's score for the player for the season), their rank (where their rating would put them of all players in the position), and the "better than," which takes the rank and tells you what percent of the league in that position the player ranked higher than. All the data is restricted to players (Lions and the league) that played at least 25% of their team's snaps (or games, for special teams).
Okay, let's start with the offensive line, which sparked my questioning as I mentioned.
Offensive Line
|
Position |
Player |
Rating |
Rank |
Total |
Better Than |
|
C |
Raiola |
6 |
15 |
34 |
56% |
|
G |
Peterman |
9.3 |
13 |
84 |
85% |
|
G |
Gandy |
-6.4 |
61 |
84 |
27% |
|
G |
Loper |
-8.6 |
66 |
84 |
21% |
|
G |
Ramirez |
-20.4 |
82 |
84 |
2% |
|
T |
Backus |
9 |
12 |
77 |
84% |
|
T |
Cherilus |
-4.4 |
39 |
77 |
49% |
What this tells me is that Raiola's an average center (better than little over half the league in 2009). Peterman is an excellent guard (better than 85% of guards) but our other guards were terrible - bottom quartile types, capped off with Ramirez, the 82nd worst guard of the 84 that played at 25% of their team's snaps. I recall Schwartz praising Peterman and bemoaning his loss during the season... I see what he meant from this.
And here's my Backus answer - the guy was better than 84% of the tackles in the league with any significant playing time, or the 12th best tackle, right around where Williamson and Jeremiah had him. Cherilus was an average tackle over on the right side, but had a minus rating with room to improve.
So we have two top 15% linemen (Peterman, Backus), two middle of the pack linemen (Raiola, Cherilus), and a big gaping hole at left guard. I knew about the gaping hole, I'm surprised about the rest. It will be interesting to see if the Lions can get any traction with the late breaking trade for Sims out of Seattle (13.8 rating, #8 out of 84 guards) - based on 2009, he's a heckuva upgrade and another top 15% guy. Based on this data, it may be enough to make a big difference without needing to kick Backus inside.
Offensive Skill Groups
|
Position |
Player |
Rating |
Rank |
Total |
Better Than |
|
TE |
Pettigrew |
-7 |
41 |
61 |
33% |
|
TE |
Heller |
-13.6 |
51 |
61 |
16% |
|
WR |
C Johnson |
1.5 |
35 |
107 |
67% |
|
WR |
Northcutt |
-8 |
91 |
107 |
15% |
|
WR |
B Johnson |
-16.8 |
107 |
107 |
0% |
|
WR |
Burleson |
-1.8 |
59 |
107 |
45% |
|
QB |
Culpepper |
-5 |
36 |
40 |
10% |
|
QB |
Stafford |
-13 |
40 |
40 |
0% |
|
QB |
Hill |
5 |
27 |
40 |
33% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RB |
Smith |
4.8 |
12 |
63 |
81% |
|
RB |
Morris |
3.2 |
44 |
63 |
30% |
|
FB |
Felton |
2.3 |
10 |
29 |
66% |
Okay, lots to go through. I'll note the rookie effect starting here - per these ratings, Pettigrew was pretty poor (bottom third) and Stafford was horrible (dead last QB). Looking at other rookies, this pattern repeats, no matter how great their season was perceived to be (with one exception we'll get into later). Sanchez (#38 QB) and Freeman (#33) are examples of this, and Sanchez rode with the Jets deep into the playoffs. There's clearly a learning curve going on.
Our starters at tight end, rated across receiving and blocking, were bottom third of the league material, at least in 2009. Our wide receivers, other than Calvin Johnson (better than 67% of the league; last year he reminded me of that dude at the end of the first Lord of the Rings movie that keeps getting perforated with arrows but yet continues to annihilate people while the little hobbit people flail around until it all just gets to be too much) our WR corps was miserable. The worst WR in the league (B Johnson) and Northcutt in the bottom 15%. Burleson, in what many considered a down year, at least had an average performance over in Seattle and should be an immediate improvement at WR2.
Lions quarterbacks rated terribly; Stafford, as could be expected, has a rough rookie year, and Culpepper fared little better (bottom 10% of the league). Shaun Hill achieved a positive rating in San Fran, good enough to beat out the bottom third of the QBs. Will be exciting to see what kind of jump Stafford can make with a full offseason and a year under his belt.
The running back group was a huge surprise (to me). Kevin Smith rated in the top fifth of the league, Jerome Felton in the top third of fullbacks. I have always appreciated Smith's style and work ethic, but had always felt the results were a little disappointing; going off of this, he was doing really good things before he got hurt.
Defensive Line
|
Position |
Player |
Rating |
Rank |
Total |
Better Than |
|
DE |
White |
2 |
31 |
73 |
58% |
|
DE |
Hunter |
1 |
34 |
73 |
53% |
|
DE |
Avril |
-0.9 |
38 |
73 |
48% |
|
DE |
McBride |
-7.2 |
59 |
73 |
19% |
|
DE |
Vanden Bosch |
-4.5 |
50 |
73 |
32% |
|
DE (3-4) |
C Williams |
13.5 |
6 |
39 |
85% |
|
DT |
Jackson |
-4.4 |
45 |
87 |
48% |
|
DT |
Cohen |
-7.1 |
60 |
87 |
31% |
|
DT |
Fluellen |
-13.1 |
77 |
87 |
11% |
|
DT |
Hill |
-20 |
83 |
87 |
5% |
Few surprises here. Our existing DE corps is pretty average, sitting around the middle of the league. McBride was bottom fifth, but also came over from KC and was making the adjustment back from a 3-4 defense. Vanden Bosch didn't have a great 2009, as has been documented elsewhere. Corey Williams, however, was a stud as a 3-4 defensive end, beating out 85% of the rest of the 3-4 DEs. He's clearly a player and it will be interesting to see what he can do back in his natural 4-3 alignment.
Defensive tackles were mediocre to poor. Grady Jackson was average, and it just dropped from there all the way to rookie Sammie Lee Hill. Even excepting Hill due to the rookie learning curve, this group needs upgrading badly.
Linebackers
|
Position |
Player |
Rating |
Rank |
Total |
Better Than |
|
OLB |
Peterson |
-1.4 |
34 |
53 |
36% |
|
OLB |
Levy |
-6.5 |
41 |
53 |
23% |
|
OLB |
Sims |
-18.6 |
53 |
53 |
0% |
|
ILB |
Foote |
5.3 |
26 |
54 |
52% |
So here was a head scratcher. The linebacking corps was a strength last year, right? Apparently not. Foote led the way to solid mediocrity and Peterson only beat the bottom third of OLBs. Levy gets the rookie pass for his -6.5 / 23% (a guy named Aaron Curry racked up a -12.5 / 4%!!) and Sims was the worst OLB in the league last year. While I'm hoping another year of experience and in the system can help Levy, Sims, and the LBs that don't show up here due to lack of playing time (Dizon, etc.), we may be ignoring this group at our peril.
Defensive Backs
|
Position |
Player |
Rating |
Rank |
Total |
Better Than |
|
CB |
Buchanon |
1.1 |
30 |
107 |
72% |
|
CB |
Henry |
-7.3 |
81 |
107 |
24% |
|
CB |
James |
-16.4 |
105 |
107 |
2% |
|
CB |
Houston |
-7.7 |
82 |
107 |
23% |
|
CB |
Wade |
-0.9 |
44 |
107 |
59% |
|
S |
Delmas |
1.1 |
21 |
87 |
76% |
|
S |
Manuel |
-2.6 |
48 |
87 |
45% |
|
S |
Simpson |
-4.8 |
60 |
87 |
31% |
|
S |
White |
-21.6 |
86 |
87 |
1% |
In the cornerback group, while I fully expected to see Anthony Henry and Will James in the bottom fourth of the league, I didn't expect Buchanon to be a top third CB. In all honesty, I'm not sure what to make of that - I feel like you can find clips all over Youtube showing him running away from running backs, but he must have been doing something right. Not enough for the Lions staff to keep him, though. Sure enough, he was one of the few ex-Lions to get snapped up quickly; will be interesting to see how that turns out. Of the new guys, Houston performed on an Anthony Henry level last year (but is younger with upside) whereas Wade was actually an above average corner. Wade's been the less heralded of the two pickups, but that rating now has me curious on him.
In the safeties, just lean back and revel in that Louis Delmas rating for a while. As a rookie, he outplayed 3/4ths of the league. So yeah, he really was that good. And as we've seen earlier, most rookies just don't do that. Unfortunately, the rest of his position-mates provided a pretty solid drop-off.
Special Teams
|
Position |
Player |
Rating |
Rank |
Total |
Better Than |
|
K |
Hanson |
2.8 |
24 |
44 |
45% |
|
P |
Harris |
6.8 |
15 |
36 |
58% |
|
K/P Ret |
Northcutt |
-0.1 |
56 |
91 |
38% |
|
K/P Ret |
Brown |
-0.6 |
63 |
91 |
31% |
|
K/P Ret |
Williams |
-1.1 |
74 |
91 |
19% |
Jason Hanson was average by league standards, and Nick Harris was slightly above average. Our kick / punt returning was consistently pretty poor, more or less bottom third of the league. Special teams will be interesting to see next year, both between the new coordinator and some of the new players that have been brought in with a special teams focus (not to mention the Pain Train Zack Follett - loved watching that guy for four years in Strawberry Canyon). Upgrading our return ability would be a huge plus.
Conclusions
Based purely on these ratings, the offensive line looks one solid guard (Sims?) short of being decent to good, at least as far as starters go. Depth will remain a need. Backus apparently isn't "Sackus." Twelve trillion first round WR picks later, we still need help at receiver beyond St. Calvin. Burleson will be an upgrade and maybe that will help down the line. We need Pettigrew to recover and continue developing as a TE. Stafford can only go up from 2009 and getting a fully healthy Kevin Smith back should be a huge boost to the Lions running game. Can Vanden Bosch improve on last year to help pull up the DEs? Corey Williams will be huge for us on the defensive line, and that positional group will emerge depending Hill's development and the draft. Linebacker could be a somewhat hidden weakness on the team, while cornerback is looking riskily dependent on young pickups or draft picks. Delmas was a beast. Our kicking and punting were mediocre and the return game needs some serious help (along with the coverage units).
Last note - all these ratings address performance on individual plays. They don't give extra credit for when a quarterback gets driven into the turf, popping a shoulder loose, only to fight off trainers to come back in the game and throw the winning touchdown with 00:00 on the clock.
In other words, writing this was fun, but pardon me while I go off and watch that Stafford mic'd for sound clip on NFL.com just one more time to get psyched up for next year...
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Pride of Detroit or its writers. FanPosts are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable fans.
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Comments
Nice post
I love stats and this is really interesting. I will have to check into the site to see what I think of their methods, but if these are appropriate there are some real eye-opening numbers.
Thanks for the hard work and the writeup.
Solid post
The reality is, no matter what happens in this draft, this team is still 2 years away from finding its bearings. Schwartz mentioned recently that he knows he’ll have a successful team when he can draft players without expecting any of them to start immediately – that’s not going to be the case for Detroit this year or the next. We’re bringing in a lot of quality talent, but we’re working from the ground-up here so its easy for all these guys we’re bringing in to look good. There’s no depth, no consistency, and a lot of question marks.
re: Linebackers, they could obviously be better, but there’s a myriad of factors that contribute to their ratings. Sims, especially, is obviously not the worst LB in the league – he struggles with injuries and got lost in the shuffle last year. All of our LBs took a hit since our front 4 provided no penetration and our secondary held nobody in check. They were caught in the middle and got burned. The upside is we’ve gotten rid of our biggest liability in coverage(Foote), and hopefully a sophmore Levy shows marked improvement. We still have plenty of speed with Sims on the outside and JPete – but both have to step it up big time. Honestly, we shouldn’t be surprised if a LB is picked in the mid rounds. There needs to be healthy competition for those spots.
Good insight on LBs
Makes a lot of sense – they definitely suffered from the lack of play in front and behind them, which definitely exposed them more than you’d like.
Awesome Post Chico!
Loved reading it. Made me feel validated for defending Backus and saying Raiola is over rated. Also made me feel validated about Wade. As for LB I would love for us to pick up a guy like Hughs or Weatherspoon if they slides to round 2.
I forgot about Burleson
Thanks, Evil, and great thought – here’s Burleson as a KR:
Rating: +2.5
Rank: 20 of 91 (that played at least 4 games)
Better Than: 78%
Looking very good… none of our primary returns could manage a positive rating. Wonder how much of the difference was Burleson, and how much was due to better blocking / scheme on Seattle special teams.
But!!!!!!!!!!
Do we really want him fielding punts considering his past injury problems? I know I dont. All we need is for Burleson to get hurt and were back to the same song and dance as last year, subpar receivers and a double/triple covered CJ.
Thanks for this post Chico
Very interesting evaluation. I would like to see one like it about our coaching staff.
A man who carries a cat by the tail learns something he can learn in no other way. Mark Twain
wow Chico
That is an awesome post,,looks like you spent alot of time on it. It is great reading,,,thanks.
Best FanPost I have EVER READ!!
Way to go! Thanks for writing it.
Is there any way to bookmark this into a favorites or something?
Also, if we agree that their methods of evaluation are the shitz, we should build a database or our team, spider their site for the results on a real time basis, and keep a running page for us to view our team both on a game and season-to-date basis.
Dawg, we should have Berners-Lee do that for us right?
Just give me 25 guys on the last year of their contracts; I'll win a pennant every year....Sparky Anderson
lol
Someone with a lot of time on their hands anyway….:o)
Oh you didn't know?? You're ass better CALLLLLLLL SOMEBODY!!!!!
It's ok kdawg...
you still have a chance to write a better one. LOL.
Kdawg is a competitor, and will not rest until he is numero uno!
Just give me 25 guys on the last year of their contracts; I'll win a pennant every year....Sparky Anderson
sorry dawg, I thought you were referring to Chico
having too much time on his hands. You were referring to Berners-Lee.
You can still write a better one though! LOL.
Just give me 25 guys on the last year of their contracts; I'll win a pennant every year....Sparky Anderson
LOL
I was thinking…write a better hypertext markup language, a better browser, or HUH?? Then I realized you thought I meant Chico…lol.
Definitely not my M.O. to try to one up posters by posting longer and better posts…especially when they are as good as this post…:o)
Oh you didn't know?? You're ass better CALLLLLLLL SOMEBODY!!!!!
ur really good though!
keep it up. I enjoy reading your stuff!
Just give me 25 guys on the last year of their contracts; I'll win a pennant every year....Sparky Anderson
If you liked this...
You’ll really dig this part, footstock:
http://www.profootballfocus.com/by_team.php?tab=by_team&season=2009&teamid=11&stats=&gameid=
So yeah, hopefully we can follow along week by week in the 2010 season and see how our guys are doing.
I noticed that Chico...
very cool. Now we just have to find a way to mine their data and display it in an easier to interpret fashion.
Just give me 25 guys on the last year of their contracts; I'll win a pennant every year....Sparky Anderson
Great post
Life is a waste of time and time is a waste of life... so lets get wasted all the time and have the time of our lives!
You mean this stuff?
http://www.detroittailgate.com/Features/Recipes/HonoluluGoJuice.html
Lions fan down in LA (lower Alabama)
Very impressive Chico
I gotta admit, some of these are hard to swallow. Phillip Buchanon is really better then 72% of CB’s in the NFL? Stafford was the worst QB in the league last year? And the fact that KVB got a -4.5 is a little disconcerting. I’m a bit skeptical of some of these ratings, but I realize that the guys at PFF surely have a lot more knowledge of the game then we do. Very interesting read.
Buchanon hurt us against the run he played timid and it pissed off Schwartz.
Schwartz had aggressive CB’s in Tennessee he doesn’t need a player back on his heels waiting for a RB he needs a CB to step up and say oh no you don’t and deliver a shot.
by Wayne Fontes on Apr 6, 2010 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree, I just dont know if cutting him with a year left on his contract when he was the best DB on the team makes sense. Have you ever heard the pharse "cutting your nose off to spite your face".
I hope and think, unlike many, that Wade and Houston will make us forget those guys anyways. And I will never forget Phillips hustle play popping the ball out on AP and making him look like an idiot. I will always love the guy for that play. I was also a fan of Bly. Look at how he is doing in SF. Pretty good but same crap as Phillip where he don’t tackle. That is also the same knock on Sheppard and why the Jets let him go. I am surprised no one has signed him yet. I expect him to get picked up after the draft some time.
I heard that phrase Evilsmurf but it really didn't hurt to cut off that nose
cuz no matter how you looked at the face of our CB’s nose or no nose they were BUTT UGLY cutting him sent a message and saved money.
by Wayne Fontes on Apr 6, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Great Post
I also feel that with a better front 4 on D that our LB’s are not going to be getting blocked al the way down the field;another reason we need SUH. I knew Buchanon was that good but when you are trying to cover for more than 7 seconds you just are not going to do it in the NFL. KVB also had a down year and you can look to the DT’s that played in Tenn last year, they were not much better than what we had hear last year. Look at what KVB did when he had Fat Albertson next to him, and now SUH. This defence is NOT gong to be in the basement this year, it’s just not going to happen now that we have a legit D-line, with 3 Legit DT’s (assuming we draft SUH). SLH is going to be stronger and have that year of playing exp on his side, Williams is going back to the DT position where he excelled at in GB, the only question mark to me is still the one side at DE. I am almost going to bet we draft a stud at #34 in this draft, although we need a CB more if we get 2 studs for the D-line in this draft in the top 34 picks our new CB’s are not going to have to cover for the usual 10 seconds like in the past 8 years.I know you guys all seem to think Avril is going to be the shit, but he just gets caught up in the wash and gets pushed around too much. Who knows,maybe Avril has put on about 15 to 20 pounds of muscle this off season and come on like we all thought he was going to last year.I still want another DE to play opposite of KVB, Package a deal together and go get Hargrove from the Saints now that he has signed we can actually get him just like we did with Sims from Seattle.
How many lumps you want Doc?
Woops forgot 1 more thought
You can look to that horrible LG play for some of the inconsistant play from our center as well. That LG position didn’t just effect Backus but Raiola as well. Now this year after Sims gets use to playing with his new line mates we should be able to stop the pass rush and open up some holes for our backs.
How many lumps you want Doc?
I was doing something very similar a few days ago
But it was for my own personal enjoyment. Looks like I should’ve done what you did. I love PFF, it’s a great site which truly shows the impact of players.
Some of my thoughts-
OL: Obviously not as big as a weakness as we all go on about. Backus, Peterman and now Sims represent a solid foundation for a good OL. Raiola and Cherilus fill it out. Hopefully some stability in the team leads to less sacks.
QB: Stafford struggled, but shown flashes of want we wanted to see. We’ll have to see how he goes this year.
RB/FB: Felton is a gun. Smith is a great back at blocking and receiving, but if you look at his running stats, they are quite mediocre. Need someone to improve that aspect. Aaron Brown looks to be a good back.
WR/TE: Calvin is good, but had a down year last year, injuries slowed him down a bit. Should be fine next year. Burleson should hopefully provide support and Grew should continue to develop.
DL: Our DT’s are a weakness, we all knew that. Williams should be a huge upgrade. Hill also should develop in the middle. Avril’s run stopping capabilities are also much better than we give him credit for. He’s actually in the positive on stopping the run. A few upgrades will make this unit solid if not good.
LB: A bit disappointing. Sims and Levy don’t grade out well, especially in coverage. Hopefully Levy will improve, but Sims is a concern. Peterson is average.
DB: Delmas is awesome, I love the guy. If he continues to develop like the other rookies, we could have a Pro-Bowler on our hands. Buchanon was surprising but Houston and Wade should replace him alright. We all know we need upgrades in this unit.
On the whole, we’re a bad team with developing rookies and possibly solid FA’s. We still have some time to go before we are competitive.
PS. Boromir is the Lord of the Rings character you were referencing.
"Zack Follett: he will hurt your mind." - Pride Leader, Sean Yuille, wielder of the Ban Hammer.
2010 Wests Tigers : Current record - 3-1 : Current Position - 3rd : Last game - Defeated Canberra Raiders 35-22
To bad he took his demons into th golden woods.
I’m not so sold on Megatrons injuries as the reason he had the down year. I’d look to the poor QB play from our QB as to the reason he was down last year. We are only going to go as far as Staff can take us, and with the new help at guard he should have more confidence and time to go threw his progressions. Look for a much MUCH better year from the Staff to Calvin connection.
How many lumps you want Doc?
Well Calvin has proven to be injury prone so far.
That is why I disagree with throwing the ball up high for him to “go get it”. He just puts out too much effort for his own good, contorting himself to catch the ball and putting himself in awkward positions when he hits the ground. That big frame falls hard and every time I see Calvin go up for the ball I hold my breath that he will get up limping and holding his back.
He hasn't had the same injury twice yet.
At least to my knowledge. There was the messed up;was it tail bone;from his rookie year on the out of bounds catch,last year it was more of a hammy issue I beleave. And if teams can’t target him maybe he wont get hit so many times, hard to catch the guy once he gets a step on you.
How many lumps you want Doc?
I feel the same way
"Zack Follett: he will hurt your mind." - Pride Leader, Sean Yuille, wielder of the Ban Hammer.
2010 Wests Tigers : Current record - 3-1 : Current Position - 3rd : Last game - Defeated Canberra Raiders 35-22
by Hyperion Ecta on Apr 6, 2010 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions
So I'll toss this up to you guys
OK Staffinfection does need more weapons even with the addition of Nate. So SUH at #2 and at #34 we go get us some Golden Tate’r tot’s to come in and be our 3rd WR this year and if he proves he can handle the load we got a TRUE #2 and we slide Nate to the slot where he belongs. Then in the rest of the draft we can fix more holes on Def. And yes I think Tate IS THE BEST WR in this draft.
How many lumps you want Doc?
I'll agree with that purely for the Tate'r'tots remark
But I could see that happening, Tate could be a stellar no.2 WR.
"Zack Follett: he will hurt your mind." - Pride Leader, Sean Yuille, wielder of the Ban Hammer.
2010 Wests Tigers : Current record - 3-1 : Current Position - 3rd : Last game - Defeated Canberra Raiders 35-22
by Hyperion Ecta on Apr 7, 2010 5:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Great Post
This was really interesting. I love seeing true analytics used to assess something as unpredictable as football talent. I would love to see more data. How does the rest of the NFC Black and Blue look to be this year with there acquisitions? Do they do this analysis for potential draft picks? I realize it would be relative to the college level but interesting none the less.
What Should the Lions do in the Second Round?
I love stats… these really bring to light a lot of things for me coming up to the draft.
Round 1: Obviously Suh and not Okung
Round 2: ?
Round 3: ?
Based on the stats of what we have… what should we do in the second round? LB, RB, DB, S? I can’t see Detroit taking a LB. Levy, Sims, & Peterson will be solid for us. Remember that Sims stats come behind a VERY mediocre defensive front. He is a great LB and probably the only solid foundation to build a LB core on. RB is BADLY needed, but I think the RB class has a ton of depth to draft in the later rounds. My gut tells me that you have to go DB.
Thoughts?
This is a snapshot, it does not take age into consideration, and sometimes depth.
Starters: T Backus 32, G Sims 27, C Raiola 31, G Peterman 28, T Cherilus 25
Backups: T Jansen 34
Practice Squad or Sub Par Performers: T Barton 25, T Hilliard 24, G Loper 28, G Quarterman 26, G Rameriez 27, G Shuening 25, C Gandy 28, C Gerberry 24
As you can see we have an aging center and left tackle and our only legitimate depth is aging. We seriously lack depth and are only a center, guard, or left tackle injury away from being a mediocre line again.
Now lets look at the defensive line
Starters: DE Avril 23, DT Hill 23, DT Williams 29, DE Vanden Bosch 31
Backups: DE Hunter 26, DT L. Cohen 23, DT Fluellen 25, DT Taylor 23
Practice Squad or Sub Par Performers: DE Copeland 26, DE McBride 24, DT J Cohen 25
If you look at age and overall talent we are much deeper on the defensive line and much more talented. The smart long term pick here, positionally is still OT not DT.
I beleave that's another reason GRLion
may be right about drafting BERRY! If you look at our back ups at OT position they should all be coming of age so to say right when Backus is ready to retire.2 more years from now when I beleave Backus will be on a serious down slide in terms of his talent the 2 tackles on our current roster will be hitting their stride.STILL PASS ON OKUNG!
How many lumps you want Doc?
I have absolutely no faith any of those guys can start at LT. Look at it this way, when Miami was looking for a T last year due to injury what guy did they go get?
Lydon Murtha. He was the one we wanted to groom but the Dolphins stole him from us. A lot of these guys will not be in the league when Backus retires. Just because they are young does not mean they are any good or have much potential. Look at the CB’s last year and how the Lions did not hesitate to kick Buchanon to the curb because he was not getting the job done how the coaches wanted. If any of those guys showed any potential whatsoever they would have been give a shot. They are on the practice squad for a reason, mainly because they suck and are there only to take snaps in practice and lower the risk of someone like Backus getting injured in practice.
Losing Murtha was our own fault
The Dolphin’s didn’t steal him, we basically handed him over. The FO decided to be stupid for once and didn’t give him a roster spot.
Round 2-
I hope Best is available from Cal. I think he would be a steal in round 2.
by Kirt-LionFaninGR! on Apr 6, 2010 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Great work Sean!
I was a little disappointed to see Stafford listed last. Some positions are more dependent on others to perform. I don’t remember where I saw it but during the season one commentator commented on B. Johnson’s performance. He indicated that B. drop pass-Bryant only caught TWO out of 18 "catchable" passes from Stafford up to that point in the season. There was many an afternoon where I was pointing out, "a WR has to catch that pass." Not even counting Megatron getting opened up a bit more this season, just having a #2 WR that can catch is an upgrade.
Lions fan down in LA (lower Alabama)
My apologies to Chico
I thought Sean wrote this…. Great post Chico!
And yes, I’m replying to my own post again… please don’t vote me off the island :)
Lions fan down in LA (lower Alabama)
I looked this up
yesterday after seeing Sean’s link… thanks for the breakdown, Sims should help on the line (will the Lions extend his contract.. has anyone heard… he as one year left on his contract)… my surprise also was Buchanan.. but he did not want to be here.. see ya… I did not realize how good to average we were when compared to the league
GO LIONS in 2010! the transformation starts now.. they have much to do.
Our offence scored enough points to win games last year
It was the horrible D that couldn’t hold a lead or stop anyone last year that lost over 10 games for us. We should have been able to win in NO,Seattle,St.Louis Both Bears games, At home against the Vikes, A 1 dimentional 9ers team,ATL when we just could not stop 1 RB. Fix the glaring hole called DEFENCE!
How many lumps you want Doc?
Really fantastic stuff here, Chico
I’m not sure it can all be adopted as Gospel, but it means something nonetheless. I guess I’m not too surprised to see all the low scores… even at the linebacker position. When you finish the season 2-14, what should you really expect? I knew Sims and Peterson both had rough years and Foote, while one of the better MLBs the Lions have had in a while, was still a liability in coverage a lot of the time.
What I get from this info is this…
1) Throw out the rookie rankings. Across the board – with the exception of total stud Louis Delmas – the rookies struggled and the Lion’s heavily leaned on most of them last year. They will most definitely reap the benefits of the experience they got last year in 2010. If potential meets output… this, not the 2010 draft, will be the reason for an improvement in 2010.
2) The offensive line has to be a cohesive unit and when one or two of the five aren’t holding up, it brings down the ship. I’ve always contended that both Backus and Raiola are solid yet unspectacular players and this kinds of shows that thinking statistically. If Sims and Peterman prove to be the stud guards we’ve been looking for… what a difference we should see this year. The remaining problem is Cherilus. With the addition of Sims, the Lions SHOULD be off the market for a T or G in the first three rounds. If they draft one, it will be to either replace Cherilus or have as insurance in the case he struggles again. I thought Cherilus was average to weak at best last year.
3) The defense is pretty bad all around and still might be. The Buchanon thing is a head scratcher… probably some anomoly of not getting picked on or something, but aside from Delmas, not sure we still have much talent in the secondary. Hopefully, Williams is a stud on the D-Line and Vanden Bosch doesn’t play like last year. I still think DT is a huge need and that should keep Suh in the forefront. I don’t think we can afford not to take a corner somewhere in rounds 2 or 3. Safety also needs to be upgraded as well.
Great post, Chico. It shows that we still have a LOT of holes, but that one of the greatest upsides to this team will be the strides made by the 2009 draft class. Very entertaining read…..
Sorry evil
After just reading Drews comments, it suggests that BERRY should be the most important man to draft. Then get us a CB.
How many lumps you want Doc?
Davis!
Way to put words in my mouth! LOL
I did not, nor will not, ever suggest that Berry is the most important position to draft. Is there a need in the secondary? Yup… a big one. But worth passing a dominant DT for? Nope. DT is still a huge need, IMO. Safeties can be had later on.
Didn't say that, Smurf
I didn’t say that DT was MORE of a need than OT. I said that “DT is still a huge need and that should keep Suh in the forefront”. I think the Sims signing changes everything with respect to Okung. If they take him, it’s because they think Cherilus can’t handle the right tackle position. If they are willing to give him another year to progress, I think that takes Okung out of the equation. That makes Suh or McCoy the pick for Detroit in all likelihood.
But DREW
reread your own words and look at what you said; you may not have actually said Berry is the most important person to draft, but you indirectly did say that Berry was the person to draft.
How many lumps you want Doc?
Nah...
I didn’t even imply that Davis. We have needs in the secondary, but that doesn’t mean reaching for a safety with the second overall pick and shoving $45MM into a position that doesn’t deserve it.
Drew
I just want to mention your point about tthe Lions not being in the market for a G or T in the first 3 rnds. There’s a guard at Texas Tech that is not even rated in the first 5-6 rnds. He played heads up against both Suh and McCoy abd neither one of them got a sack against a pass happy offense. amight be the next Murtha’ in round 7.
Are you referring to Brandon Carter??
That dude is a F-ing beast…and I would LOVE to get him in the 7th round. I doubt that he will be there though.
Oh you didn't know?? You're ass better CALLLLLLLL SOMEBODY!!!!!
I love his attitude
Could be a fan favourite.
"Zack Follett: he will hurt your mind." - Pride Leader, Sean Yuille, wielder of the Ban Hammer.
2010 Wests Tigers : Current record - 3-1 : Current Position - 3rd : Last game - Defeated Canberra Raiders 35-22
by Hyperion Ecta on Apr 7, 2010 5:29 AM EDT up reply actions
A little adding and dividing I figure the Lions should have been better then 8 teams
last year considering our starting players rankings, what that tells me is the depth of our backup players brought us down more than I realized and we still need a huge improvement on the bottom of the roster. Nice Post Chico and props to you Sean for moving this to the main page.
Why do you keep saying that we don't have anyone to replace Cherilous???
Rock Jansen although getting up there in age I thought should have been the starter from go last year.In my opinion he is probably the best tackle on the team but because he got here late and was coming off of an injury from the year before, our coaching staff used him as a backup.
How many lumps you want Doc?
I agree about Jansen being the best tackle, but he is only a 1 year solution at his age.
The key to a dominant offensive line is consistency and 1 year solutions are not how to get that done. Jansen, though I like him and was really happy they resigned him, is only going downhill, and faster than Backus or anyone else. It is rare to find a freak of nature like Ray Brown that can play till they are 40 and still dominate. Id we want a solid LT a year or two from now, we better draft one and start getting him ready to take that role over, otherwise your going to have to start an unproven rookie at LT. That is not the way to go at all. IF a rookie earns the job you dish off the veteran. Look at the Delmas pick last year, we had Gerald Alexander, and had taken S in round 2 the previous 2 years. They still took Delmas, and when he proved to be the right pick they traded Alexander. Look at Philly with Mcnabb. They drafted Kolb in round 2 like 3 years ago, they had a Solid starting QB. They groomed him and let him grow into the position. Ideally this is how it is done. Same with Arron Rogers with Favre. It not like the guy will sit on the sidelines all season, either he or Backus will play RT because you know Cherilus would lose in the 3 way competition for two starters. It also gives us solid depth so that when an injury happens we don’t end up losing our starting QB as well since we cannot field a LT.
Sad thought about Jansen being the best tackle...
since the skins have arguably the worst line in football and they released him. What should that tell us?
Just give me 25 guys on the last year of their contracts; I'll win a pennant every year....Sparky Anderson
In case no one else noticed...
Jansen struggled last year. His career as a “good” tackle is over. We need him as emergency insurance… and that’s it. He is no longer starter material and if this staff has no faith in Cherilus improving, they need to find another viable starter in the draft or free agency. Jansen is NOT that guy anymore.
I think his stats show a big improvement
Not sure if I’m reading them correctly.
I guess if you buy into this sites tracking he did improve quite a bit.
http://www.profootballfocus.com/by_player.php?tab=by_player&season=2009&page=1&surn=C&playerid=4331
http://www.profootballfocus.com/by_player.php?tab=by_player&season=2009&page=1&surn=C&playerid=4331
But I am not the type to bank on maybe’s and what ifs. I firmly believe the only way to bring the best in a player out is to have a replacement breathing up his ass. In order to get the most from Backus and Cherilus we need a legitimate threat to their starting jobs, not to mention that is the perfect definition of depth, which we currently do not have. Even though Gosder sucked last year compared to Jansen he was given the starting nod because he is the future and Jansen is the past.
http://www.profootballfocus.com/by_player.php?tab=by_player&season=2009&page=&surn=J&playerid=464
And this is where I disagree with PFF. Jansen was clearly better yet Gosder looks like he was. I don’t need to go into the whole post that showed Wade as better than Shepard last year where someone completely misunderstood my points, but there are other examples of why PFF is NOT bible.
I see your point
I really don’t think its possible to define every aspect of the game with stats. However; it does give us different insight which is a good thing.
rankings make some sense
these rankings seem pretty spot on to me.
in agreement:
i thought Backus played well
i know K Smith played very well when accounting for situations (down and distance)
i thought Buchannon was good
i knew Sammie Hill was too quiet
i saw Felton blowing people up—he needs more reps.
Cherilus looked about average to me.
Delmas was solid, dropped some picks and got some penalties (that might have been worth it)
slight disagreements:
i thought E Sims would rank a bit higher (he was flying around after he came back from injury). he looked lost in the big gaps sometimes—i put most of the blame squarely in our DTs getting pushed around.
i thought ’grew would rank out better, he was catching the ball a lot towards the end and seemed to be blocking well
i thought Stafford would rank out better (since i thought they would adjust scores based on situation—sometimes you have to take a risk)
Rec'd, but looking at this...
Wow is CB a need… I would take a CB in round 2 unless a true gem falls to us, and round 4 could use another… Great insight chico
VP of Membership, Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by JoelZumayaKegStand on Apr 6, 2010 10:49 AM EDT reply actions
I hate these things...
According PPF. Jonathon Wade is a better cornerback than Quentin Jammer, Dunta Robinbison, Marcus Trufant and Malcom Jenkins to name a few. Bryan Thomas NYJ is #2 LB in the 4-3 with 34 solo tackles. Lance Briggs is #40 with 90 tackles. I know it is not all about the tackles. But hell, Paris Lenon is ranked #25. Who here would take Lenon over Levy?
What I hate about these formulars to try and put a numbered value on players. Is Football is a game of situations and circumstances. Bryan Thomas was #2, maybe because of the supporting cast around him. Wade was #44. Because he did not get in the game that much. Because when he did(according to PPF). He allowed the QB to have a 115.0 quarterback rating. And 77.8 percent of the balls thrown his way to be caught. And a guy named Lito Sheppard Allows 73.7 QB rating. And only allows 48.1 percent of the ball to be caught.
You put alot work and effort into the post. And I thank you for that. It is just I am not a believer of this sort of thing.
if the shoe fits...get another one just like it - George Carlin
I forgot to add...Lito Sheppard was rated at #50
if the shoe fits...get another one just like it - George Carlin
By your own standards...
Wade did not have the supporting cast that Sheppard did. The thing with evaluations that is hard is quantifying all of the little things. You can literally run yourself around in circles looking at what factors outside of the player themselves have effected their performance.
by my own standards...Wade only started 4 games at the start of the season....
how can you list someone that can’t even break the starting line-up on the worst team in football. And say he is better than a proven starter like Dunta Robinson?
if the shoe fits...get another one just like it - George Carlin
You're missing the point
Indeed, Wade is certainly a product of a small sample size and he clearly isn’t that good. What the numbers clearly show is that Dunta Robinson was an unmitigated pile of suck last year. That’s a fact.
Pile of SUCK?????
Is that why so many teams were trying and hoping he would sign with them? He was rated as one of the top 3 DB’s in this years FA. How does that make him a pile of SUCK?
How many lumps you want Doc?
no the point is...
the Jonathon Wade is NOT a better cornerback than Marcus Trufant, Dunta Robinson, Quentin Jammer,or Malcom Jenkins. Wade lost his starting jog in St. Louis. Anyone that knows anything about football will tell you this. Just because a bunch of guys. Sat around, watching NFL games they taped with their DVR’s. Decide to come up with an arbitrary formula, so they could give a rating to the players. Does not make it the Holy Gail of Football. And I wish any of the Lions cornerbacks would suck as much as Dunta does. Do you even watch football?
if the shoe fits...get another one just like it - George Carlin
I am saying you contradict yourself.
By saying that Lennon had a better defense to make himself statistically better and that Levy is the better LB, but then not applying that same logic to Wade and Sheppard. Sheppard had a way better defense in front of him to inflate those stats too, going by your logic. Never mind that these guys are evaluating on a player by player, play by play basis. I am saying that your a homer with your eval of Levy being better than Lenon and that Lenon was a far better LB than Levy last year.
no it is a straight up question...
Is Wade, who became a backup for the Rams, better than Lito Sheppard? Or, Dunta Robinson? Because that is what the info provided by PPF says. And believe me. This is just one example. Look at all the positions. Yes Sheppard was on a better defensive team. And he was a starter. Though logical thinking. That would make Sheppard a better player than Wade.
Okay forget Levy v. Lenon. What about Paris Lenon v. Lance Briggs? Tavares Goodman v. Lance Briggs? Seriously, I can do this all day.
if the shoe fits...get another one just like it - George Carlin
Gotta agree with JCruize here
Wade wasn’t good enough to make the roster of the worst team in the league, and we should actually expect him to be a starting-caliber CB? That sounds like some kind of delusional.
I guarantee you there is a reason Jim Schwarrtz got him. In fact he got him before Houston if memory serves me right.
I think the Ol’ Gym Shortz knows a thing or two about starting CB’s in the league and doubt if he would be on our roster if they didn’t think he could be a starting CB.
yes there was a reason...
Wade was released the by Rams. Houston became available after Atlanta signed Dunta Robinson. Oh, and Houston is also rated better than Robinson, Trufant, Jenkins, and Jammer. You should take that little chat over to the Birds of Prey(Atlanta’s SBNation site). Show them what a dumb move that their FO made. Signing Robinson to a big contract when Houston is clearly the better player.
if the shoe fits...get another one just like it - George Carlin
Cruize...
Obviously a player with a small sample size, or only playing in nickel situations, likely wouldn’t score as high if they were playing on every down.
One of the things I found interesting at PFF is that they don’t measure stats but rather player performance on rateable plays. They mentioned in their methodology that a LB might make a tackle, but WHERE they made the tackle might actually produce a negative ranking on that play instead of a neutral or positive one.
They also said that if a tackle gave up a sack, they will measure how long they held the rusher off the qb before the sack. Evidently, if the QB holds the ball too long a lineman that gave up a sack might actually have a neutral ranking instead of a negative one. Also,, they score based on whether the lineman got to the second level after the initial block and so forth.
Although they aren’t using coaches tape, they seem to be doing their best to analyze the play behind the play and assess a score to that players performance.
Just give me 25 guys on the last year of their contracts; I'll win a pennant every year....Sparky Anderson
Okay...i would like to address your comment...
They mentioned in their methodology that a LB might make a tackle, but WHERE they made the tackle might actually produce a negative ranking on that play instead of a neutral or positive one.
Wouldn’t that be a product of a situation and circumstances? For example the Linebacker position. If you play the strong side. And you are a very good player. And teams trend to run away from you. So alot of your tackles are coming 4 or 5 yards pass the line of scrimmage. Now take the weakside backer on that very same team. Teams are running to your side because you are a weaker player than the strongside backer. This gives would give the weakside backer more chances for tackles at the point of attack, or behind the line. So, in PPF methodology. Who is the better player?
There are way too many variables. To be able to put a rating or numbered ranking on a player and be 100% accurate for all players. To many defensives schemes. To many offensive schemes. To many different coaching philosophies. Every game is played differently. And every game produces a different set of situations.
if the shoe fits...get another one just like it - George Carlin
Hey Bishop
2 things bro. 1 those were 2 great picks in the draft. 2 if you have not read that article about the Lion in winter; you will REALLY enjoy that read, it’s one of the best articles I have ever read in reguards to our Lions.
How many lumps you want Doc?
thank man...i will read the Lion in winter...tomorrow when i have some time
if the shoe fits...get another one just like it - George Carlin
You sir are absolutely right...
…I believe the formula has some kind of fatal flaw from either not including enough or trying to do to much. These results are more wack than Whitney when she was with Bobby.
by Mister Gloom on Apr 8, 2010 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Enough mindnumbing overANALyzing stats already!!!!
Hit somebody and make him bleed. If he gets up, knock him on his ass and make him bleed some more. THAT’S FOOTBALL!!! Just as Follett (my condolences) and Delmas. They know football.
Computer GEEKS rule !
Nice job ! Thank-you !
" I must be crazy to be in a loony bin like this. " " What are you doin' here? You oughta be out in a convertible bird-doggin' chicks and bangin' beaver. " " Medication time. Medication time. " ( One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest - 1975 )
chico-
Very nice post. It is great to see some upgrades through free agency. Let’s hope Mayhew and team get a couple more studs in the draft. I think Suh or McCoy are the obvious second pick. Youtube these guys’ highlights. I like McCoy better as he seemed to be in the backfield all the time. I’ll be happy with either one.I would love to see the Lions get a possession receiver like Shippley from Texas to help improve the receiving corp. Thanks again Chico!
by Kirt-LionFaninGR! on Apr 6, 2010 12:49 PM EDT reply actions
Add Sims Chico
Rob Sims is the 4th highest rated LG and 8th highest rated G. If we can keep that line healthy and moving forward, it looks like less of a need for our Lions. Our DBs still scare me. I love Delmas, but our CBs were pathetic last year. I hope we can find some diamonds in the rough or that a good one slips to the second round. The truth still remains that we need more talent on the whole team. Drafting the BPA will remain a very good strategy this year.
by Kirt-LionFaninGR! on Apr 6, 2010 3:53 PM EDT reply actions
ChicoWong now holds the top two spots for most rec'd FanPost ever
Nicely done.
Pride of Detroit, SB Nation's Lions Blog
Yikes!
Sean – I appreciate the bump for the piece and also the great positive vibes from the commenters. POD’s an awesome community and I feel privileged to be able bounce some ideas around with you guys.
Thank you for the hard work..
And please keep them coming. While I may not agree with some the stats from that site, and think the system they use must be flawed. I do agree with most of the ratings.
Again, Thank you!
Two birds with one stone
I think this just double proves why we need to take Suh in the first round. Don’t forget that a linebacking corps is only ever as good as the DTs it has in front of them. Big bodies like Suh will keep the guards from coming up and knocking our LBs out of the play. Improving the play of our D-line will dramatically improve the efficiency of our LBs. Win-win. I LOVE berry and like okung, but it’s impossible for me to rationalize either of those considering the makeup of this team.
Thank you Chico!
This was a great post!
I’m wondering if part of the reason Buchannon did so well was due to the other offense’s attacking our other CB’s a lot more causing his numbers to be inflated.
Kind of like our LB’s looking worse due to the DLine play.
A Trade Whose Time Has Come
Ravens ink LT Jared Gaither, then ship him to Detroit, along with CB Domonique Foxworth, in exchange for OT Cosder Cherilus and Lions 2nd Round 2010 draft pick (#34 overall).
Not a typical Mayhew steal, but hey one of these days he is going to have to propose a fair deal or everyone is going to stop taking his calls!
Lions get young top rung LT and highly ranked cover corner while shedding one monster RT contract for a monster CB contract, and opening up the RT position for Jeff Backus. Add up the ProFootballFocus numbers for a starting front of Gaither, Sims, Raiola, Petterman, and Backus and see where the Lions would rank.
The Ravens would prefer to move Oher to LT, but would need at least an average young
RT to immediately replace him. But the dollars won’t fit unless they could include Foxworth’s big salary in the trade…which is something they would love to do if they could adequately replace him with someone other than an expensive first rounder.
This might solve the Suh/Okung dilemma .
Whatcha think? Should I phone the front office now…or will you?
Not sure why the clammoring for Gaither still?
Rob Sims will be our starting guard, so there are really no offensive line vacancies left. What… you are going to bench Cherilus, a first round pick and highly paid player? Too soon and too much invested in that, methinks…. at this point anyway.
We’ve given up a lot of picks this offseason already… all for upgrades, mind you. But I don’t want to lose the #34 pick unless it’s for a position with a huge need. With the Sims signing, it is not a huge need. It would be a “nice to get” type of thing. Now if we could get a great young corner, safety, defensive end, running back, etc…. by all means, trade the #34 pick. But not for a tackle when we have our starters already.
Gaither will be a UFA at the end of next season...and he made it public that he
wants to stay in the Baltimore/D.C. area. Unless Gaither comes with a long contract I say NO.
if the shoe fits...get another one just like it - George Carlin
Thanks DrewLions&Footstock
1. Footstock, you got it. Backus is not as bad as some would have us believe, but he ain’t no spring chicken and he is going to have to be replaced relatively soon. So why not buy him another year or two (by shifting him from the outfield to first base) and upgrade the RT position at the same time. The Lions will have a couple of years to address the future of RT and will not have to reach as high in a future draft, nor reach as far into their pockets for a RT free agaent, as they will when they find and land their vital LT of the future.
2. DrewLions. Thanks for responding. NFL front offices are like oh so many stock market investors. The smarter you are, the more difficult it is to see and admit when your’re wrong on an (player prospect) investment decision into which you’ve put so much of your thought, money, time, and ego. In the market, as in a player prospect, who you are as an expert NFL executive and what you want mean nothing. Repeat: nothing. And arguing with reality can only cost you money, time, and success.
Cherilus was a middle first round (17th overall) pick. There are 32 teams in the NFL. This draft position is on average the highest that half the teams in the league will ever see. This is LT territory…if a team is lucky. Cherilus is struggling to make it as an average RT…continues to make too many mistakes…was benched last season due to poor performance/development. Cherilus, I read, is due to make $7,496,370 this season…more than Backus, Ernie Sims, Louis Delmas, and DeAndre Levy combined.
Just because a player was a previous administration’s first round pick who luckily became a very high paid player is not enough to hang on to him. Why spend/waste/lose more time and more money when you have a franchise quarterback to protect and games to win?
You have got to have some sell rules that you follow.
…Rome was not built in a day…and the Romans were not 2-30 when they got started!…
Finding a prospect at #34 with value equal to one of the highest rated, already established, young LTs in the NFL is highly unlikely. Consider Gaither for a 2nd rounder, and Cherilus and Foxworth swap of big money contracts that serves the immediate needs of both teams involved. Getting Gaither would save a (required) near future 1st round pick for a game changing running back or #1 single coverage shut down corner.
Insightful
I think our LB’s will be better this year becuz of the front 4 improvement. Ernie this is your year brother.
JCruize Is Right...DrewLions too
JCruize is right, with Gaither becoming an UFA after the 2010 season, the Lions would need to get a long term contract done with him before acquiring the young LT for either a high or mid-range pick. But with all the silence around him now (except for a bunch of fan posts), might this be due to some behind the scenes negotiating along these very lines with the Lions and/or other clubs?
DrewLions is also correct in not wanting to give up #34 in this year’s draft. But if the Ravens would consider throwing in their #57, with the Lions tossing in one or two 7th rounders this year and their 5th or 6th in 2011 (or something such) in a Gaither/Foxworth/Cherilus deal, then maybe it makes for a trade.
(Straight up, I would bet that the Lions would give up Cherilus for as little as a future 7th round draft pick if they could free up the $7 million plus that I see that we have to pay him this season.)
If Cherilus improves as much this year as he did last he will be better than Backus.
Though I am all right with trading him for Gaither, there needs to be a long term contract in place first. And us getting Foxworth is just dreaming.
Why?
A developmental OT with a history of injury….sounds like a 7th rounder that we took last year…
Oh you didn't know?? You're ass better CALLLLLLLL SOMEBODY!!!!!
Oops!
I am really new on this blog thing..and in rereading this stream, I am now guessing that you were directing your question to KDawg. My bad. For what its worth, I too didn’t understand the “Why?” and accompanying comment/s.
Sorry guys...
I was thinking of someone else entirely…please disregard.
Oh you didn't know?? You're ass better CALLLLLLLL SOMEBODY!!!!!
Reply to Evilsmurf
Suggest reference previous running comments on this initial post for clarification on Foxworth, Gaither, etc.
Cherilus improved so much last year that he got benched toward the end of the season for poor performance.
Ravens looking to replace Foxworth (possibly with a better tackler) primarily due to over $8 million in salary due him this season. Would probably give him away for a 7th rounder…but who is going to be willing to pick up that large a salary?. It would most likely require some sort of exchange involving a swap of near equal monster salaries. Enter Cherilus with his $7 million plus 2010 season salary. So what’s the use?…Ravens looking for a RT (after permantently moving Oher to LT) and Lions needing to plug a big hole at CB. With Gaither at LT for the next 12 years, Backus could move to RT to close out his career with the Lions…and with Jon Jansen around , Backus could return to the left side if Gaither or Rob Sims were to get hurt.
I see the logic, But it seems like the Ravens would be giving up a lot and Ozzie just don't do that.
He is like Mayhew in that regard so this would have to be a fairly even trade. Before we even traded for Gaither as I have said in many posts, we would have to get over his lack of desire to play here, and throwing money at that problem will not help. As the saying goes, money can’t buy you love. That is a potential deal breaker here and I just do not see the deal happening for that reason before we even get into details.
On those details Gaither for Cherilus could be somewhat swallowed both young tackles and what I was talking about is the fact that Cherilus went from like a negative -18 rating to a -2 last year, if he did that kind of improvement again, or anything close to it he would be one of the better RT’s in the league. So if you can get them to buy into that I can see these guys getting traded straight up. As for unloading his salary why? It is not a capped year, and I am sure if they told him he would get traded to the Lions if he did not renegotiate his contract he would get his agent right on that. Not to mention he was their best corner last year on a defense that needs help at corner. IMO there is no way Ozzie gives him to us without getting a lot in return.
Yeah, probably wishful thinking on my part more than anything else.
But 7-8 million dollars is a major consideration for all teams (even the baseball Yankees)…cap year or no cap year.
Ozzie is smart; and as I said in my first post, Mayhew is going to have to start offering a few fair deals to maintain his cover.
Sure Gaither has publically stated that he wants to remain in the Baltimore area; but maybe there is a chance that this is a neigotiating ploy as it often is when a player’s agent suspects that he might have to work on a pre-sign-and-trade deal. If the Ravens decide to move gaither, then Gaither will be moved. Same goes for Foxworth. Cause after all, business is business…there once was an entire Baltimore team that wanted to stay put, but ended up in the “rural” Midwest.
I was more hoping for a Gaither for a 4th round pick type of deal.
Since our 4th is like a 3rds and if we trade before he signs a tender its worth a shot for the lions to get him. If he is all that we could always franchise tag him next year then trade him.
Changing channels
If Ozzie and the Ravens’ coaches think that Gaither is worth no more than a very high 4th round draft choice, and he wants to stay in the Maryland area, then I would not want the Lions to acquire him for anything more than a 7th rounder. I surrender on this. Goin’ to move on to stewing about running backs.
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