2010: Winning Season -- Why we have a chance
by n4ry4 on May 19, 2010 4:11 PM EDT
Email
PrintI think the consensus, nearly everywhere I've read, is that the Lions are somewhere between "bad" and "average", better than last year, 'on their way up', etc, but 2010 isn't the year. Somewhere between 4-12 and 8-8.
I'm going to challenge this a little. Here's my question...Are the we not good enough to have a chance at making the playoffs this year?
Last year was the mother of all rebuilding years, new gm, new coach, new scheme, new oc, new dc, new qb, etc. We couldn't possibly hope to win more games than we lost. We were heavily dependent on rookies playing above any realistic expectations.
As I look at our starters at each position, and try to project whether their performance ought to be average, above-average or below-average compared to the rest of the NFL, I just don't see us as a below-average team. Am I too optimistic with these:
OFFENSE
QB
Matthew Stafford - has all the tools to be an elite QB, strong arm, smart, leader, we all know what he brings. And he's not a rookie anymore. above-average.
OT
Jeff Backus - a better run-blocker than a pass-blocker against elite DE's, but he's still a very solid tackle, durable as a rock. above-average.
LG
Rob Sims - a relatively young but experienced starting guard, should be in the prime of his career, the only reason he's not with Seattle is their scheme. Our win. above-average.
C
Dominic Raiola - not a mauler, in fact probably a weaker blocker than most starting centers, but he hasn't had the chance to play between two consistently good guards in his career, and everybody on or close to the team raves about his leadership, feistyness, and the tempo he brings, so I think that makes up for his shortcomings. Like Backus, I think he'll look a lot better this year than years past, playing next to a hole at LG. average.
RG
Stephen Peterman - has played pretty well when healthy, but he's coming off an injury this year. Solid starter. average.
RT
Gosder Cherilus - has excellent talent, but hasn't lived up to it yet. Should be a dominating RT which his size, and I'm confident he can turn that corner this year and at least be at least as good as the average starting right tackle.
TE
Brandon Pettigrew - top TE in the 2009 draft, huge blocker, huge target, struggled early as a rookie, but just seemed to begin to get it before his injury. When he returns healthy, he should at least be an above-average tight end. Tony Scheffler further adds upside at the position.
WR1
Calvin Johnson - above-average. In fact, way the hell out of this world above average, but my scale for this exercise only has three options.
WR2
Nate Burleson - not as a #1, but a very savvy #2 WR who should be an above-average #2 WR playing on the field with Stafford and Calvin Johnson. He was certainly productive when he got to play with Randy Moss in Minnesota.
RB
It's tough going through the learning curve for rookies, but one position that can, and often does, excel as a rookie is running back, if the guy has talent...and Jahvid Best certainly does. When you figure in how much experience, versatility and depth we have with Kevin Smith, Maurice Morris, and Aaron Brown, our running position should certainly be considered above-average compared to the league. I would even call it "loaded".
FB
Felton might be a slightly better ballcarrier than a blocking fullback, but I am hopeful his performance will benefit from the rising talent level all around him and he can be at least an average blocker for our running backs this year.
DEFENSE
DE
Kyle Vanden Bosch - above-average starting DE. Not as great as he once was, but I think he'd be the starter on at least half the teams in the league, and should benefit greatly from having good DT's next to him.
Jason Hunter, Cliff Avril - good enough to start for this team at LE or rotate at either position, but I still think we could upgrade this position. Avril needs to live up to his talent. below-average.
DT
Corey Williams - two consecutive 7-sack seasons the last time he was allowed to play DT in a 4-3. Now, he's back to playing DT in a 4-3. above-average.
Ndamukong Suh - even though he's just a rookie, he should be a very good DT right away. The sky is the limit with his talent and work ethic. Even as a rookie, he should be at least above average for an NFL defensive tackle.
OLB
Julian Peterson - He's getting up there in years, and I'll freely admit he's not the 5x Pro Bowler player he once was, but he's still a solid experienced OLB and should be at least average on this defense this year.
MLB
Deandre Levy really showed promise as a rookie. The coaches have a lot of faith that he's our MLB of the future, and I think they're right. He's no longer a rookie, and I think it's reasonable to expect above-average starting performance from Levy, especially considering the talent at DT playing in front of him..
OLB
Zack Follet / Jordon Dizon - I'm not sure either of these guys has the tools to be a complete, starting, every-down OLB at this point, but I wouldn't rule it out. Hopefully coach Gun can light a fire here and between the two of these guys. But I'm not convinced quite yet we can expect a consistent starting-quality performance at the position. below-average.
S
Louis Delmas - one of the best young safeties in the league. above-average certainly.
S
Daniel Bullocks, Ko Simpson - I'm really concerned that we don't have enough talent or health here to put a quality starting safety opposite Delmas. Hopefully Bullocks can prove me wrong and look more like a former second-round pick than a former second round Millen pick. below-average.
CB
As a former second-round pick, Chris Houston is talented, but it doesn't seem like any Atlanta fans can say he lived up to it. I'm not sure what we'll get out of Jonathan Wade either. Amari Spievey is just a rookie this year. Our starting CB's could completely surprise, but I wouldn't bet on it. below-average. below-average.
SPECIAL TEAMS
K - Hanson above-average
P - Harris average
KR/PR - not sure who the return man will be. Based on recent history I'll have to assume below-average until somebody steps up (Brown? Williams? Toone?)
...
So, by my koolaid-stained count, that's seven above-average offensive starting positions, four average starters, and no real holes (!) barring injury. On defense, I see five above-average, five below average, one average. Special teams one, one and one.
If, compared to the rest of the NFL, we have an above-average offense, and a merely average defense and special teams, and we're not dependent on any really old and/or washed-up guys (Grady Jackson, Daunte Culpepper) to start, nor are we relying heavily on big contributions from any of our rookies except the first-round talents Suh and Best, what does that indicate?
Sure, we could suffer injuries, so could any team. But, on paper, aren't we an above-average team? We're not heavily dependent on rookies or cast-offs like we were last year. We have experienced, talented starters at most positions, and no gaping holes, except possibly in the secondary. And there are some positions where we are very, very strong.
I don't think it's crazy to suggest we have a good shot at a winning season this year. The 1-15 Miami Dolphins from 2007 went 11-5 in 2008. If they can get a 10-win jump in one offseason, why can't we get a 8-win jump from 2-14 to 10-6?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Pride of Detroit or its writers. FanPosts are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable fans.
67 comments
|
3 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Based on my opinions/ your scale
I would say
*Burleson is simply an average #2 WR
*Levy is unproven and I would give him average as well
Other than that, I agree with the post, good work, 5 wins
VP of Membership, Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by JoelZumayaKegStand on May 19, 2010 4:45 PM EDT reply actions
Well... definitely glass half-full approach!
I think there are some stretches at “above-average”, n4ry4. Nate Burleson? Kyle Vanden Bosch? Corey Williams? Jeff Backus? And the entire RB corps?
Burleson, KVB and Williams have a LOT to prove. All three are coming off mediocre years and that’s why they are here and not at their respective previous employer’s facilities. None had above-average seasons last year. Of course, that doesn’t mean that they won’t this year. Backus is average and always will be. He’s a decent, serviceable, “you-can-count-on-me” type of veteran and an asset. But… he’s not really above average, IMO. As for the RBs… they are not above average… not yet, anyway. Best is a rookie, Smith is gimpy, Morris is solid, but certainly unspectacular and Brown is unpolished and one-dimensional. Hopefully, you put that all in a big bowl and mix it around and you get something tasty. Until that happens, I don’t think you can call this group anything but average. Actually, the running game is all about Best this year. If he can electrify… we will be damn good on offense. But until he does, it’s all speculation.
Once again, it seems I am playing the POD party pooper… but I always feel the need to inject some realistic expectations into this foray. I have been duped by many unproven rosters in the past. Even though I’ve said this many times before, I do believe this is the start of something different… which, in and of itself is part of the problem when trying to set realisitic progression-based goals and expectations for this team.
For me, the Packers and Viking are still too good. The stars, planets and the rest of the Heavens would have to align for us to win the NFC North… this year. My best guess is around 6-7 wins in 2010. I hate predicting, but it’s all conjecture at this point anyway. For me, from now on… the proof is in the output on the field, not the May/June paper roster game.
BTW… good post!
I think to be realistic you have to look at it in terms of potential
Because a lot of those players have upside potential to be above average but their downside potential is below average. Backus is a perfect example. On the body of his work, which is significant enough over the years to judge him on I would agree 100% he is just average, but he did have an above average year last year, and Sims should help out this year to repeat that or even improve upon it. Honestly I think Backus is a pro bowl RT stuck at LT on a team that lacks a true LT. Move him to the right side and he would have had a dominant career. Of course none of that is quantifiable on him being at RT, just my opinion. BTW for people who think Bulaga is the answer for GB at LT, yeah well lets just say that his potential is about the same kind of career Backus has had.
Yeah, but potential is a dangerous game and only serves to disappont
This team has potentially been ready to be great many times. Potential is nothing but an imaginary “best or worst case scenario”. Until realized, it amounts to absolutely nothing. We can say that KVB will potentially be above average and could potentially give us 10 sacks this season, but until he ACTUALLY does it in a Lions uniform, it’s all guesswork. For all we know, his best seasons are behind him and he’s on a fast decline. I don’t think that… but it may be true.
That’s what makes predicting the upcoming season an exercise in frustration. Like last year, we have no idea how this new mix will pan out. Will the FA pickups give us a real boost? Does Stafford take the next steps to being great? Is Best an every-down back? Does he even have to be? Will Smith and Pettigrew return early or late and how much did this set them back? Is the secondary going to be an upgrade or another pathetic attempt at correction? See… far too many variables. So I set my expectations reasonably. 6-7 wins. Better than last year, but not predicting some post-season run… not yet.
Potential works both ways. I see the potential for this team to be great (this year) and I see the potential to flop again as well (see defensive back seven – well, six if you don’t count Delmas). But the proof is in the pudding, and we’re only in the mixing phase of making our dessert. Look at proven teams in our division like GB and MIN and that pudding has already been served. Things happen and those teams could always self-destruct, but in the prediction game, I’ll always take the known qualities and leave the potential alone… to an extent.
But your still predicting and evaluating and guessing at 6-7 wins :)
I understand your point and I agree, I actually am in a similar wheelhouse on attempting a prediction of wins this seasons. I expect 6 but think 4-8 is possible. I actually have us favored in 4 games in a write up I did a while back that involved projecting the teams standings based on their draft grades. Wildly speculative but still it is all we really have to talk about until real games are played. I expect us to finish somewhere between 24-28th in the standings.
Anyways the very things you mentioned above are as legitimate an argument for playoffs as the conservative approach you take. There are just simply too many variables to quantify to any reasonable level of accuracy at this point. Even Vegas odds makers get it pretty wrong at times, I think the learned that one the hard way on the first super bowl that New England won in recent years. You also have the Tampa Bays and New Orleans who went from worst to first in their division in one season. You had people rank New Orleans 24th in power rankings last year, right where the Lions are this year, and they won it all. Then you have teams like the Chargers that are laden with talent, have a slow start, storm back to win their division, and then are one and done. Then there is the Jets who only made the playoffs because the Colts benched their starters and they damn near won the whole thing.
I think it goes back to that saying, any given Sunday. And therefore we all know this is here for entertainment purposes only and is completely speculative. Some people eat cornbread and drink kool aid, others have the hatoraide going on, and then you have the moderates that try to be the voice of reason for everyone saying woah now, don’t rock the boat too much lest we all fall into what we are drinking.
I think its speculation to say the Jets only made the playoffs because the Colts pulled their starters.
The score was 15-10 with Indianapolis clinging to a 5 point lead when the call was made to pull the starters.
Even with the starters in there, the Jets had a shot to win this game.
Did the Jets capitalize on the chance to play against the B-Unit? Yes, definitely. However, I think it’s merely speculation to say that "the Jets … only made the playoffs because the Colts benched their starters ".
Coulda went either way.
by RobertPorcher on May 23, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
The Jets only won that game because the Colts benched PEYTON MANNING!
Had Manning played the entire game, even with the backups, the Colts would have won.
Oh you didn't know?? You're ass better CALLLLLLLL SOMEBODY!!!!!
Your right CLF
Your comment has the potential of being a realistic statement.
by Wayne Fontes on May 20, 2010 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
And realistically...
your reply has potential as well.
Oh you didn't know?? You're ass better CALLLLLLLL SOMEBODY!!!!!
4-12
Mostly because of the tough, tough schedule we face. I think we are much improved and that the schedule will not allow us to truly show our improvement………plus, it’s the first year that many of these players are playing together. I think next year is our breakout year.
GO LIONS! RESTORE THE ROAR!
I think another thing to keep in mind is that a glass half full is just that, the liquid is at the midpoint its not half full or half empty, it is both and neither.
Saying that I mean not every move we made will pan out. Sure Schwartz and Mayhew do a great job but its not like Derrick Williams or Aaron Brown really did much for us last year, Granted Brown was a 6th round pick so they get some leeway there but they definitely missed the mark on D. Williams. Not every move they made this off season will pan out and not every player will improve on last years performance, some will have a worse season than last year. That being said I still put is in the 4-8 win range. 4 if a lot of things go wrong, 8 if a lot of things go right, which means by virtue of a middle of the road, or conservative approach we should win 6 games this year.
Buchanon, James, and Henrey are other moves that did not pan out last year. In fact we have a horrible track record with Free Agents historically.
Lets hope that KVB, Burleson, Wade, and the trades of WIlliams, Houston, Hill, and Sims all work out. It is highly likely they wont based on the past.
They had zero chance of landing any impact free agents last year
they were coming off an 0-16 season.
huh Larry Foote was not an impact free agent?
And Northcut and Bryant Johnson were not exactly scrubs either
Northcutt was a trade
Bryant Johnson was most certainly a scrub and even Foote was a cut without much buzz, not an impact free agent, though he did play well for us. I think you and I have very different ideas of what an impact free agent is. Even this year, I think it’s debatable if we got an impact free agent, though Vanden Bosch would probably qualify.
I kind of consider the trades in the same light, they are bringing in a supposedly proven vet
Mainly my point is that every one of them for the most part played worse for us than they did on their previous team. I just don’t have the faith in Mayhew and Schwartz when it comes to the vet free agents and trades. I hope they make me a believer this year.
same thing this year
we werent in the hunt for peppers or any other good FA, nor do i think they need those guys.
The beginning of the end of the misery
The new regime was just tying to get bodies in here through FA last year
This year they targeted players that fit their profiles. Now the roster is more reflective of their philisophical views. Now if we can remain consistent on the identity and persona we wish to display as team characteristics we are on our way to a dynasty.
by Wayne Fontes on May 20, 2010 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I think its likley
Follett and Dizon could end up playing as situational LBs unless Zack can prove he has cover skills too.
Louis Delmas is gonna lay the MAC down on your candyass
Follett and Suh IN YO FACE!!!
If you're going to rate Backus as above-average, then Raiola has to be too
They’re pretty close to the same talent level at their respective positions. Also, no way Levy is above average. He’d probably actually be below-average if you look at the starting MLB for every other NFL team and compare those guys to him. Also, C Williams probably average because of unproven-ness. Backfield is definitely average at best (pun intended).
A little bit of kool-aid here and there but you got most of them right, IMO.
by WestsideLionsFan on May 19, 2010 6:35 PM EDT reply actions
PFF has Levy mising a lot of tackles
For the record I have to begrudgingly give it to Dom for last year, he was in the top 1/3 of centers and that is definitely better than average. Granted that is not every years performance just last year. Also if you look at why Kevin Smith sucked running the ball look no further than the guards. On PFF Smith had positive numbers across the board to all non guard holes yet he had some big red numbers to the guard holes. I don’t think that is all his fault. A healthy Sims and Peterman is going to go a long way for the run game this year.
Speaking of the guards...
This is definitely a good point. Check out this analysis:
http://themanepoint.com/2010/05/17/how-i-see%C2%A0it-o-line/
It talks a bit about the guards being the real holes on the line.
we need a stronger fb
O.J. Atogwe and louis Delmas best safety duo in the league
by DetroitLions 4 life on May 21, 2010 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you probably had a few too many above-average players there
Or possibly, having only 3 grades is too few. I think Backus and CJ are definitely not on the same level. I’m sticking to my 5 – 11 prediction. I think it’s much harder to win in this league than some people realize.
"Zack Follett: he will hurt your mind." - Pride Leader, Sean Yuille, wielder of the Ban Hammer.
2010 Wests Tigers : Current record - 4-2 : Current Position - 7th : Last game - Defeated by Canterbury Bulldogs 24 - 4
I think it is important to determine wether you are grading last years performance or this years potential too.
Because CJ would have received a B grade on performance last year but likely an A on potential this year.
optimist
you must be a very positive person…..
I think the lions think are greatly improved and I really like stafford but to say he’s an above average QB in the league is a stretch.
I also think you’ve overrated backus, RB, pettigrew, suh and levy.
just my opinion…..
really?
above average is a reach for someone who has been touted as a premier dt…i think above average is realistic.
and backus is not overated he was top ten percentile of all lt’s last season, just the facts.
pettigrew and levy being overrated as a claim is fine to me.
ANYTHING MORE THAN
5-6 win is just out playing our depth. There is no BARRING injurries in the NFL. No team makes it through seasons with out a couple injuries and if not a couple KEY injuries. I’m hoping as much as the next person. However we are just as dependent on rookies THIS year as LAST year. RB, DT, CB those aren’t throw away positions unless the rest of the units on that side of the ball are high calliber or probowlers. Next year we contend. This year we just makes strides IMHO.
I have a 9" personality
by Waitingfortheroar on May 20, 2010 12:06 AM EDT reply actions
7 wins with 9 games considered winnable
While I do believe you are drinking some extra-strong Honolulu Blue kool-aid with some of your player rankings, I think the Lions will go 7 – 9 this year with 9 games considered winnable. A 5 – 3 home record is very possible and there are 4 winnable road games (Bears, Bills, Buccaneers, Dolphins). With a few breaks and some luck with injuries, the Lions could have a winning record in 2010.
16-0
i drink to much kool aid for my own good
Lions fan for life!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Here's me looking into the future at the Lions going to the Play-offs by 2011 and going to the Super Bowl in 2012!!!
I drink a lot of "spiked" blue kool-aid... Having no problem sharing cuz it sure is good!!!!
8-8?
I believe what is being overlooked here isn’t the physical attributes of our team but,
the mental attitude that has permeated the team as losers. If schwartz can overcome
that handicap with the players, we have the physical talent to compete. Most teams
in the NFL with a few elite exceptions, are no better than the Lions on talent. They
have, and will have, better records due to mental attitude. Just my take.
7-9
If we get 7 wins I will be extremely happy. That’s a huge improvement, especially with our schedule this year. My main concern is keeping the team healthy so they can all “click” on the field together for many years to come. I am seeing around 10 wins in 2012.
by Ray Finkle-Matter on May 20, 2010 12:50 PM EDT reply actions
Football isn't Baseball
Football isn’t just a simple sum of the strength of the positions on your team. Opponents will focus on your week point over and over again; and there may be little you can do about it.
With such a poor secondary, and young offensive core (Stafford, Best, Pettigrew) it seems like an incredible stretch to suggest the team is making the playoffs this year. They have talent, but without experience they are just big question marks, not obvious advantage points on the field.
Coaching is huge in the NFL as well. I like what I hear from Schwartz, but to be fair we haven’t seen anything from him yet that makes me think he’s a genius.
The Lions this year could be be describe a as a giant “?”. Which, of course, is better than the last couple of years when we pretty much knew they were going to suck.
by Big Z in Orlando on May 20, 2010 3:43 PM EDT reply actions
Good Post, but...
I think DrewsLions made the best point. Football isn’t just about looking at how many positions we have a decent player on, but how those decent players play together. You could have a potentially bad secondary play well b/c the font seven provides great pressure for them, or you could have them flop like the last decade because they simply weren’t the right mix.
I wanna take the readers back to our 2008 roster. In 2008, we had two pro bowl caliber receivers, a guy that led the NFC in receptions two seasons back (Mike Furrey), and our “third” option (shaun mcdonald) had 900+ yards the previous year. We also had a former pro bowler in Rudi Johnson, and a solid back in K Smith. Our qb was decent, line was mediocre (as always).
On defense, we had players like Paris Lenon, who had 100+ tackle seasons, and “solid” players like Leigh Bodden Brian Kelly, Dwight Smith, and Dwyane White. Oh and we were 7-9 the previous season, and 6-2 at one point. Simply, there was nothing to indicate a collapse of the 0-16 magnitude. So, we can sit here and speculate how the roster will perform, but really no one other than god knows how the lions are play this season.
The beginning of the end of the misery
I like how you put into perspective...
when you look at it based on what you just said, 0-16 seems like such an anomaly. How did it happened?
6-7 wins… I have the team as a whole as average with the potential to be above average… can’t rate until the first game… I expect them to beat the damn Bears!!! Whatever it takes beat da Bears!!!
GO LIONS in 2010! the transformation starts now.. they have much to do.
23 Is not "above-average"
http://www.prideofdetroit.com/2010/5/19/1479199/2010-winning-season-why-we-have-a#add-comment
Sims was traded for a 4th rounder. Hardly, “above-average”.
Pettigrew is recovering from a serious injury. I will give him an incomplete, but not “above-average”.
Cj-no question.
Burleson, may be above-average, but not that much.
Secondary, yes, below-average.
Rb, a question mark. THe potential for above-average, I give you that.
The D-Line should be vastly improved with Suh. I will agree above-average, though not quite ready to call it Steel Curtain II.
Special teams? I do not see any great return man. Hanson was average last year. Punting was average. I go with average.
My take:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3-eavMSBnk
Peterman is
13 on that list? Peterman? 13?
Davis was named to the Pro Bowl and he was ranked below Peterman. I get your point, but that would mean Staff is the worst QB in the league:
http://profootballfocus.com/by_position.php?tab=by_position&season=2009&pos=QB&stype=r&runpass=&teamid=-1&numsnaps=25&numgames=1
My guess is six wins
The main reason we aren’t .500 material yet is the secondary. Besides the LD26 missle we’ve got not a single guy back there that’s a quality NFL starter. Yes, I’ve heard those eager to point out that our newly designed pass-rush will help mask our lack of talented DB’s, but I’m not so sure. Keep in mind, everyone, that Corey Williams hasn’t played in a 3-4 in three years and that Kyle VandenBosch is 31 and in the declining stages of his career. Even if Ndamakong Suh meets all expectations, our D-Line still will only be considered a middle-of-the-pack group.
Another huge factor in our success this year will be the play of Matthew Stafford. It’s entirely possible that, thanks in part to his new weapons, he’ll have a breakout season, in which case 8 wins is most definitely possible. On the other hand, if he stinks up the place or gets injured, we could just as easily end the year with 3 or 4 wins.
7 winsss watch and seee
O.J. Atogwe and louis Delmas best safety duo in the league
by DetroitLions 4 life on May 21, 2010 5:50 PM EDT reply actions
btw we will sign Atogwe i feel it and i felt the rob simms trade too
O.J. Atogwe and louis Delmas best safety duo in the league
by DetroitLions 4 life on May 21, 2010 5:51 PM EDT reply actions
I hope your right, that could be a step that makes us legit IMO
Think about it what if we added:
Pitts or Smiley at G for depth
Atogwe at S
and I know this is going to rock the boat but TO at WR
Man, could you imagine that! I know TO is an ass but I think Staff, Raiola and co could easily tell him to STFU and I think he could really help mentor some of Detroit young receivers. The guy certainly knows how to practice, train, and stay in the league, if only he could keep his mouth shut he would have been so much more amazing of a player.
Smiley, yes
Atogwe, yes.
TO? I don’t want TO mentoring anybody.
Further, TO would be what, a 3? A mighty expensive 3 at that. I watched him last year in the Bills first game against the Dolphins. He took plays off, he ran imprecise routes, he failed to block down field, and he failed to place himself in the proper position.
I do not want any young player to pick up his bad habits. The only mentoring he could do would be on how to be a jerk!
Odd, I always heard the NFL Talk Show Guys praise him for hsi work ethic and practice and training habits
But yeah obviously I would only be interested in T.O. if he actually has game left.
See for yourself
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/3664/gamelog;ylt=AruEgzk15V98FiZ7R1kQqRz.uLYF
Nearly 1/4 of his yds. came in one game.
Look at that site you listed:
position.php?tab=by_position&season=2009&pos=WR&stype=r&runpass=&teamid=-1&numsnaps=25&numgames=1" target="_blank">http://profootballfocus.com/by_position.php?tab=by_position&season=2009&pos=WR&stype=r&runpass=&teamid=-1&numsnaps=25&numgames=1
97 out of 107, a -3.7 blocking, and I had forgotten about the penalties.
He is still in excellent shape, but the head is not screwed on right.
I voted for 6 wins … We can’t assume we are that good until we prove it on the field.
So far of 258 votes …
6 wins – 22%
7 wins – 19%
5 wins – 16%
If we combine it into a win range then :
6 – 7 wins 41%
5 – 7 wins 57%
5 – 8 wins 68%
5 – 9 wins 83%
I think 5 – 7 wins where the age crosses 50 sounds reasonable and about right.
I look at the poll results this way:
16 wins – 4%
10 wins – 3%
9 wins – 17%
8 wins – 10%
7 wins – 19%
+___________
53%
so 7 – 16 wins when the percentage crosses 50, so the middle of that range is 11-12 wins on average. So the Lions should win 11-12 games this year
Hey that's a timeout, I can play right? yeah, get me--get the F-- Help me up...I can throw the ball if you need me to throw the ball...
My Take
The Secondary is a huge question mark, but I do think that most people are underestimating the added value that the defensive line is going to bring. The added depth is the key. I think with Suh, Williams, and Hill we easily have a top ten DT rotation, even top 5 if you’ve had a few sips of the sweet blue kool-aid. Schematically on defense it is extremely important for DT to draw double teams to keep LB free and create more one one ones with the DE. This all adds up to hurried/inaccurate throws, sacks, interceptions, fumbles, and most importantly it allows less time for receivers to get out on their routes and open. This is exactly why we want physical corners to keep receivers from getting downfield on routes. This all takes precious seconds away from the short clock that is ticking in a QBs head. It throws off timing for offenses that players are always trying to get down. A dominant defensive line is a must if you want a great defense.
Imagine how much more effective blitzing is going to be when opposing offensive lines are already getting their asses handed to them every play by the 4 guys we are sending. I dont think many people realize how good Julian Peterson could be this year. I mean he is a perennial pro bowler who has made a career out of getting after the quarterback blitzing. At the other outside linebacker spot we are gonna have a little bit if a weakness, however we do have a few young guys that have some talent and eventually (hopefully) one will emerge a solid starter for us. I think Levy is going to be solid, but depth at MLB is scary.
I thought we could build a similar offense to the Houston Texans this offseason, and now we basically have a replica IMO. Matt Stafford—-Matt Schaub——Calvin Johnson———Andre Johnson——-Nate Burleson————Kevin Walter——Tony Scheffler/BP——-Owen Daniels——Jahvid Best——-Steve Slaton (and that not even including Kevin Smith). The Texans were 4th in total offense in the league last year. We have made improvements to our OL which has been well documented in numerous other posts. I see no reason why we wouldnt be able to post similar numbers on offense.
We got a few impact players this offseason and our great draft class from 09’ has a year under their belt. I am looking forward to a much improved season and a more explosive team. How may wins does that amount to?? I guess you can never really say. Winning the close games is something only the great teams can do consistently, and I think we are far from great. However if we can get a few bounces to go our way, win some close games, and maybe pull a few upsets we could have an awesome season with a young foundation on the roster to build on for the future. My prediction: 4-7 wins because the schedule is so tough with 2 heavyweight contenders and a decent bears team in the division paired with one nightmare of a schedule outside the division.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
