Lions turn over half of their roster.

The team has direction. The FO and the coaching staff are of the same mindset. And look at the youth movement. This guys should all peak at the same time. I truly believe that we will have a several seasons of 12 to 14 wins. Starting in the 2011 season. If you look at the roster. We are just one top tier CB and another soild LB away from something great. With some luck. And some balls bouncing our way. The 2010 Lions could get 8 wins this season. What a great time to be a Lions fan. Of 20+ years of watching the Lions. This is the most excited that I have been. For the start of the season that I can remember.

In the 1st round helps to dictate the BPA for a team….just the way it’s working at the moment.

For the most part we do take BPA, for our team. It is not just a positional thing. There were several players in both drafts that we passed up on. Michael Oher, Parrish Cox, Everson Griffen, Jimmy Claussen and others, but I picked those examples because they are obvious.

Position of need is a factor. Especially in positions that only have one of them on the field at any given time. QB, FB, C, K, P. Since the organizations is committed and comfortable with Stafford, Raiola, Hanson, and Harris you will not see them put much emphasis on them in the draft.

Physical attributes are a factor. Our coaches have a certain profile of what they are looking for in order for a player to have the physical tools needed to perform their assignment on the field. This is no more clear than in the case of line backers. Our coaches are looking for guys that are 240 or bigger and can still run well. It is not a question of just straight line speed either as they have to have some lateral movement and hip flexibility to be able to work in coverage schemes.

Intangibles are a factor. Our coaches like smart players, hard workers, competitive, and leaders. All of these factors translate on to the field and also more importantly translate into reducing the risk of a bust.

Football skills are a factor. Again with the example of linebackers, they have to be able to block shed, read coverages, and tackle.

So when we make our draft board players will likely start out with their grade’s being based heavily on football skills and intangibles. Once we get the basic player quantified as to what they will be on the field and in the locker room I think we will look at if they fit the physical profile and we will adjust their grades on that. Probably the last thing to effect their position on our draft board would be what people are calling position of need.

Clarifying position of need. I don’t think our front office looks at it in the simple terms most of us think of it as being. I think they actually look at what they are gaining by drafting a given player over what we currently have. This is why we do self scouting. Let me put this in madden terms because it will be easier to grasp.

Lets say that you have Suh there as a DT and he an 85, and lets say that theoretically Williams has a big fall off this year in his performance and though he started the year as a 82 player, rather than adjusting well to coming back to a 4-3 he has lost some strength, speed, desire to play, whatever it be he gets graded out at 76 prior to the next draft. Now lets say that Follett starts the year at about a 68 rating, but as expected he learns and improves to a 74.

Now when it comes to the 2nd round in the upcoming draft we have already taken a corner back in the first round, just to help everyone get that out of their mind. On the board for our 2nd pick is a LB with a 80 grade and a DT with a 84 grade. Lets further complicate this by saying there is a QB with an 86 grade. In a BPA philosophy you would take the QB. The Lions would not, however they also would not take the LB who is a bigger need. In fact they would take the DT because it is the biggest impact on the field, the biggest on field positional upgrade. Instead of improving our starting LB by 6 they would go for improving the DT by 8.

After that pick we would likely immediately be shopping our least valued DT looking for another pick to be able to address another team need with. If we did not move the extra DT in the draft we would continue in the off season to try to move him for a future pick or another player that helped our team. If all else failed we would release or cut him and just move on with the team.

To further complicate matters it is not even this simple. There are other things that come into play such as positional value. For instance the linemen. Every play of every snap starts at the line, and every play is dependent on run or pass blocks, therefore the line play influences the success or failure of every play. It is similar with the quarterback. Much of the offense depends on them making the right reads and adjustments at the line to pick up blitzes, or audible out of a bad play. Therefore those positions tend to weigh out a little higher on draft boards for some front offices.

There are also red flags. Things like injuries, character issues, and motivational question marks that will keep some players from being drafted at all. Look no further than the kid with the incest / rape charge for an example of that. Or if you want a more mild example look at Jahvid Best. Based on his production he would have been drafted ahead of Spiller in the draft, however injury concerns pushed him down to where we could grab him much much later. What was a red flag for others was not considered to be for us.

You also have transition time as a factor. Basically the teams will try to gauge how soon a player will make an impact or reach their potential on the field. Some positions like running back translate easier to the NFL than a quarterback, receiver, or corner back would. Meaning that there is less of a learning curve or mental game to them than the other positions. Furthermore some positions that require learning how to do things in the NFL have players that have a more “pro ready” game than others. A perfect example of two such players are Ndamukong Suh and Eric Berry. Though most players coming from college playing DT or S are expected to take time to learn the pro game both of these players have already learned some of those things, and therefore will reach their potential sooner.

Some teams will take a talented running back higher in the draft than a corner back because they know it will take most corner backs 3-4 years to be ready to compete on a championship level of competition where most running backs can come in and be championship level runners day one, while polishing the other less used parts of their game as they go. Depending on the teams goals and time lines for making a super bowl push, their priorities in the draft change.

So basically this is all a pseudo-science. Some things can be weighed and measured, like a players height, weight, speed, and IQ. However other things like work ethic, leadership, and heart can never be quantified in any sort of accuracy. Even the IQ tests are up for debate. The point being though that each and every decision has many factors that go into it. On top of that there are literally thousands of those decisions to be made.

So when you consider the big picture you realize that though we might be able to get a baseline, or a pulse so to speak, for how our front office handles things there will always be the statistical anomalies. Further more as our team moves through each season the priorities of the organization will change. We can sit here and speculate all we want in retrospect, we can try to predict what may happen in the future, but ultimately it impacts the decisions about as much as watching the grass grow. However it is far more entertaining.

who will most improve their team. A smart strategy, no?

Anyone actually think that all this turnover would lead to some problems? ie. guys not used to playing together or in the Lions schemes?

NO? I did not think so.

At first I couldn’t understand why we would keep him. I’m not big on a versatile DLineman, especially since he can’t produce and was completely outplayed. But, I did take a look back (On GamePass, YAY!) and he is pretty decent on ST. I gotta say I missed that one, at first.

I like the changes they’ve made so far, I think for the most part a lot of these guys will stick around, unlike players of the recent past.

Definitely our biggest weakness last year, and things need to be changed. Let’s hope we find some stability this year.