The Weekend Spotlight - Week 17 (NEW YEARS) Edition

HAPPY NEW YEAR ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to another edition of the Weekend Spotlight.  I am your host, KDawg.  The sixteenth installment of my weekly series has the Detroit Lions finishing out the season versus the Minnesota Vikings, at home in Detroit, MI, at Ford Field.  With just 1 game left in the season, and coming off of their third win in a row in week 16 against the Dolphins, the Lions will face another in division team for the second time this season.  The Vikings are now 6-9 on the year, after beating Philadelphia last week, and i would say that they have been moderately successful given the Favre saga and the rest of their issues.  In our favor, Minnesota is 2-5 on the road this season (4-4 at home) and 1-4 in the division.  Unfortunately, their one in division win came against the Lions in week 3.  Just like last week, I believe the Lions can win this game, and as usual I have great expectations for them in this game.  I'm not sure if this is a good thing or a bad thing, but this time the Vegas oddsmakers actually FAVOR the Lions to win the game (-3.5).  I find it humorous how inconsistent those odds have been this season, not just for the Lions but across the board.  Regardless of whether or not the Vegas odds were in favor of the Lions this week or not, I would have STILL said that the Lions WILL win this game.  The Lions played another great game last week against the Dolphins, besides all of their injury issues, and despite my concerns and displeasure for the decision to start Shaun Hill over Drew Stanton, Hill did well enough for the Lions to WIN against a team with a very well rounded defense.  Minnesota is a team that has many issues, and a team that has proven to be ultimately beatable this season, even with Brett Favre under center.  We know for a fact that Shaun Hill will be the starting QB for the Lions this week, so there will be no uncertainty in that regard this week.  Instead, we will be forced to wonder whether or not Calvin Johnson will play.  That said, let's take a look at who else will (or will not) be playing this week, by examining the injury reports for both teams:

Landon Johnson has landed himself on the IR, and Paul Pratt has been called up from the practice squad to take his roster spot (you love it don't you Wayne).  This is interesting to me, as it looks like Chris Houston will not be able to suit up for the last game of the season.  As such, we will likely see Tye Hill and Nathan Vasher as the starting corners this week.  I have been pretty impressed with Vasher thus far, and regardless of the tipped pass by Tye Hill that landed in the waiting arms of a Dolphin WR last week, I thought that he did a serviceable job as well.  I am not too worried about our corners this week, as I have a feeling that Minnesota will have all kinds of difficulty throwing the ball against the Lions.  With CJ not practicing this week at all, and because he is listed as questionable, my concern falls with whether or not he will play.  If Megatron is unable to go, then it raises concern for me as to whether or not Nate Burleson and Brandon Pettigrew will be able to get the job done in his stead.

On the other side of the ball, the Vikings seem to have far worse injury issues than we do.  I wouldn't say that Minnesota is in a lot of trouble in the cornerback department, even though it looks like Asher Allen will not play, because they have Lito Sheppard backing up Allen.  Much worse for the Vikings is the fact that they may be thinned out at the safety position, with Medieu Williams being out with a concussion and backup Tyrell Johnson listed as doubtful with a knee injury.  This will likely leave the Vikings with Husain Abdullah and Eric Frampton as their starting safeties for the game.  They are also likely to be without Sidney Rice, which puts all of the focus on Percy Harvin in the passing game.  E.J Henderson, their starting MLB is questionable, and Jasper Brinkley would get the nod if he is unable to go (this bodes well for our running game).  We are all aware of the Favre scenario, so I will not even get into that mess.  I'll just say this...it looks like Joe Webb will get his 2nd consecutive start at QB, and he is not going to have a good day against the Lions.

With all of that in mind, it looks to me like the hopes of the Viking faithful once again rests on the shoulders of RB Adrian Peterson.  The Lions are going to have to stop Peterson from running wild, and they are going to have to pressure, hurry, hit, and sack Joe Webb all day long.  Joe Webb is a dual threat type of QB, ala Mike Vick, but I feel that he will fold under the constant pressure that the Lions have brought all year.  Certainly, if the Lions play as well against Joe Webb as they did when they faced Michael Vick, then Joe Webb will not pass for 200 yards and he will not find the same success running the ball as he did last week vs the Eagles.  We held Michael Vick to 37 yards rushing, and he was able to post 284 yards passing and 2 passing TDs.  The Vikings do not possess the offensive weapons that the Eagles do however, so it will all come down to whether or not we can stop Adrian Peterson and keep Joe Webb contained.

The Lions are now 5-10 on the season.  With 16 weeks of the regular season already behind us, once again I will reveal who I believe will be the key players, on the Lion's offense and defense, for a Lion VICTORY!  As usual, I will provide you with the logic behind the reasoning for my picks, including stats.  In my opinion, winning this game should not be as difficult as it was against Miami or Green Bay.  In terms of defense, Minnesota is slightly inferior to both Miami and Green Bay against the pass, but while they are slightly worse than Miami against the run, they are quite a bit better than Green Bay in that department. Overall, at this point I feel that both Miami and Green Bay are superior teams to Minnesota.  The Lions have the momentum in their favor, and I am confident that we will win this game.  VICTORY can be ours, and I'll tell you why and how as the WS W16E begins after the jump...

The Skinny

The Lions are still 11th in the league in passing offense, and the Vikings are currently 10th in passing defense.  After last week the Lions have fallen to a tie, with the Bears, for 24th in rushing offense (down from 23rd), and the Vikings are currently 8th in rushing defense.  The Vikings are 25th in the league in passing offense, and we are now 11th in passing defense (up from 14th last week).  The Vikings are 8th in rushing offense, and we are still 24th in rushing defense.  In comparison, last week we faced the Dolphins, who were 6th in the league against the pass (now 7th) and 6th in the league against the run (still 6th).  We faced a superior run defense last week, and while we did not do so well, I think we will be better off this week.  We also faced a superior passing defense last week, and we were moderately successful.  I believe we will see just as much passing this week as we did last week, and maybe even more.  To that end, hopefully either Calvin Johnson will play or our other receivers will step up and get the job done.  We should be able to move the ball on Minnesota, just as we did against Miami, and with any luck we will see a good balance of success between running and passing.

Offense

When we faced Minnesota in week 3 of this season, it seemed to me that they were vulnerable to our TEs.  Tony Scheffler and Brandon Pettigrew were able to combine for 13 catches, 104 yards, and a TD against the Vikings in that game.  Calvin Johnson also chipped in 6 catches for 56 yards, and Shaun Hill actually spread the ball to 7 different receivers for 29 receptions.  IF Calvin Johnson is unable to play tomorrow, then I believe our running backs will need to pick up his slack in the passing game.  This means that Shaun Hill will be able to be his usual self, dinking and dunking away.  That said, I feel that Brandon Pettigrew is going to be the key player on offense again this week, unless Calvin Johnson plays.  If CJ manages to play, then the modicum will fall on his shoulders this week.

If Calvin Johnson does not play, then Pettigrew and Burleson will likely be the key targets in the medium ranges.  I feel that Burleson will get his targets and catches, but for the most part he should be well covered by Antoine Winfield.  With Burleson becoming the primary deep threat receiver in absence of Calvin Johnson, I believe that Shaun Hill will look for Brandon Pettigrew to be open often.  If Pettigrew can do his thing, catch the ball, and get what he can after the catch, then he might just find himself with another 100+ receiving yards day this week, and maybe even have a couple of scores.  Even though that could very well be the case, I believe that Shaun Hill will still have to spread the ball around to be successful against Minnesota.

Defense

Defensively, I think our most difficult task will be to stop Adrian Peterson, as usual when we play the Vikings.  Percy Harvin will be the main threat in the passing game, and Joe Webb is another player that the Lions defense has to be aware of.  That said, I am praying for a big day from Suh, Williams, and Hill in the middle, in addition to a big day from DeAndre Levy, Julian Peterson, Bobby Carpenter, and the rest of the linebackers.  These guys will have to be stout as the first line of defense against the powerful Adrian Peterson, and if they are not all hitting hard and low, and wrapping their arms around Peterson's legs, then he will find ways to explode.  It is absolutely paramount that the Lions do not allow him to run uncontested, as he is one of the most dynamic and explosive running backs in the NFL today, and he can beat any team by himself if allowed to do so.  Because of the fact that Chris Houston will be out for this game, we will likely see Tye Hill matched up with Percy Harvin.  As long as our front 7 is doing a good job of creating pressure on Webb, I do not think this matchup will be a great problem.  Louis Delmas should be back this week, and he is the guy who I think will play a key role this week on defense.  Delmas' presence against the run game could make or break us against Adrian Peterson this week, and as such I am naming Delmas as my key player on defense.  Delmas has had a slight propensity to over pursue and take poor angles on runners this season, and if Adrian Peterson gets past the D-line and the linebackers we are going to need Delmas to come up and make a play.  Of course Spievey can help too, but being the hitter that Delmas is, and having the swagger that he brings when he is on his game, could be the key to keeping morale quite low for the reeling Vikings on Sunday.

We CAN win this game, but it is going to take a very solid game plan and excellence of execution in order for it to happen.  The Vikings are not the best team we have faced, but they did beat us before, they do have a solid defense, and they do have Adrian Peterson.  We need to play a mistake free game (or at least as close as possible to that) and a full game once again.  I believe that if things go our way, and if we do not beat ourselves, that we will be in this game to the very end and come out with a VICTORY.  Once again, I want to thank all of you who have read this post all season long.  I enjoyed writing it for you, and I am happy that you have enjoyed it.  As always, I hope the refs do not beat us, and I hope that the Lions play a well disciplined game.   This has been KDawg, and you have been reading the sixteenth (and final) regular season edition of The Weekend Spotlight!  Happy New Year, and Happy Football Sunday ladies and gentlemen!!  GOOOOOOOOOO LIOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNSS!!!!!

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