On Paper: Detroit Lions Vs. San Francisco 49ers
by simscity on Oct 14, 2011 2:38 PM EDT
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PrintThe Lions are now 5-0 for the first time since some year no one remembers (sorry aged readers). This week, they have a short week for their second game of a three-game homestand and face a 4-1 49ers teams that could have very well been the third undefeated team in the NFL. Their lone loss was to the Cowboys in overtime, after holding a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter. As noted by a San Franciscan friend of mine, the two teams face each other with a combined record of 9-1, while last year, at this time, the two teams were a combined 1-9. The Lions are four-point favorites in this highly anticipated game. Let's go to the charts.
Lions Pass Offense (4th) vs. 49ers Pass Defense (23rd)
This may be an unpopular opinion, but lately, Matthew Stafford has been struggling with his accuracy. Many have chalked it up to early game jitters, or his homecoming to Texas, but let's not forget that Stafford had accuracy issues coming out of college as well. Now, don't get me wrong, he is still easily the best quarterback the Lions have ever had during my lifetime, but given how he was tearing it up in the preseason, it's a little disappointing to see him miss some throws (by a lot, at times) when a receiver is visibly open.
Still, most of his stats remain outstanding. The Lions are sixth in passer rating, third in passing TDs, 10th in completion percentage, and third in sacks allowed. Speaking of which, the offensive line played phenomenally against the Bears on Monday night and made Julius Peppers as close to irrelevant as humanly possible. A follow-up performance against the Niners could convince many that the line is more than average.
*Romo and Kitna combined
The 49ers passing defense is a bit of an enigma. Based on the chart, they haven't played two solid games (or two poor games) in a row. In two games (Bengals and Bucs) they held opponents well under their averages, and in two other games (Cowboys and Eagles) opponents crushed their averages. In the opener against the Seahawks, Seattle performed just under their averages in yards and passer rating. In other words, based on the chart the Niners have a slightly above-average passing defense.
Further statistics corroborate this hypothesis. San Francisco ranks 12th in yards per attempt, 11th in sacks, and 11th in completion percentage allowed but fourth in passer rating allowed and third in interceptions. It's clear that they are better than their 23rd ranking suggests (based on yards allowed per game). But this aspect of the Niner defense isn't unbeatable. Though no team has surpassed 100 in passer rating, when the Niners have faced good passing attacks (see Eagles and Cowboys), they've given up plenty of yards and good passer ratings. Detroit undoubtedly has a good passing attack and gets the small advantage here. Lions +1.5.
Lions Run Offense (24th) vs. 49ers Run Defense (4th)
There was absolutely nothing more satisfying than watching Jahvid Best have a career night on the ground on Monday. Best was making some beautiful cuts on Monday and the offensive line was creating massive cut-back lanes. But, facing reality, the Bears actually have one of the worst rushing defenses in the league. The Lions will need to play like that on a consistent basis to earn the respect of their opponents.
Aaaaand holy crap. The Niners bolster one of the best rush defenses in the league by almost any measurable you look at. As you can see, their chart is nearly flawless, with only the Bengals reaching their season average in yards per carry against the Niners. Their 3.6 yards per carry allowed ranks them seventh. They've also only allowed one rush of over 20 yards (and none of 40+), something only three other teams have accomplished (the other three teams have only played four games).
It's clear who has the advantage here. The Niners have all the advantages in the statistical realm and I haven't even mentioned Patrick Willis, the Pro Bowl linebacker who ranks 12th in tackles in the NFL. But like I say and we see every week, this offense can be successful without a solid rushing game. This matchup clearly favors San Francisco, but it's unlikely to significantly affect the outcome of the game. 49ers +1.
49ers Pass Offense (29th) vs. Lions Pass Defense (12th)
Don't be fooled by the 49ers 29th ranking; Alex Smith is having himself a year. Don't believe me? Take a look at this:
Pictures Courtesy of NFL.com
Now, obviously, the 49er passing attack isn't as explosive as Detroit, but Smith is doing what he is being asked of effectively and efficiently. But as I hinted at, the dynamic numbers of the Niners passing game are not that impressive. They've only had 16 plays of 20+ yards through the air (13th) and only one of 40+ yards (T-last). This is a passing offense that relies heavily on short passes, as tight end Vernon Davis leads the team in receptions, yards and touchdowns.
The Lions' 12th ranking is solid, but this chart is not. They've only held one opponent below their season average in yards and two in passer rating. In good news, the Lions rank seventh in passer rating allowed, but when you take into account that the Lions have not faced a team with a rating above 90, it may not be all that impressive. I think it's fair to say that, despite their seven interceptions on the year (T-fourth), the Lions are likely a slightly below average passing defense.
There is one more key to this matchup that I failed to mention: pass rush. The 49ers have allowed 14 sacks (24th) and we all know how dangerous the Detroit defensive line is, especially with Nick Fairley in the mix now. I would say the pressure is likely to force Smith into a mistake or two, but the man has only two turnovers on the year. I don't expect a huge day from Smith, but an effective one. 49ers +1.
49ers Run Offense (12th) vs. Lions Run Defense (18th)
Frank Gore had a very slow start to the year, but he has been outstanding in the past two weeks, averaging 126.0 yards and 7.2 a carry in those games. It's a little tough to tell which is the real rushing attack for the Niners, but the Eagles and Bucs don't have great defenses. Still, Gore has enough of a resume to warrant at least some worry among Lions fans. I consider the San Francisco running attack, at the very least, average.
The Lions, however, are pretty clearly below average in stopping the run. The Lions' front four specialize in rushing the passer, which makes the Lions somewhat vulnerable in the running game. I thought MLive had a very interesting article detailing Jim Schwartz's opinion of the Lions run defense. For those with link-ophobia, Schwartz basically says that while he's not happy with where they're at, the Lions' secondary and linebackers have done a great job tackling and limiting plays.
Overall, however, the Lions have given up plenty of yards, and with a run-heavy offense coming to town, this will clearly be an important matchup. The Niners have the advantage, but not large enough to sway the outcome of the game by much. Niners +0.5.
Overall
It pains me to write this, given how fun the ride has been, but the 49ers come out with a +1 advantage. San Francisco likely has the best defense the Lions have faced thus far, and their offense is playing better than it has in several years. This will be a low-scoring display of solid defenses. The Niners also have a great special teams threat in Ted Ginn Jr., who has already returned a kickoff and a punt for a touchdown. His ability to change the field-position battle may be the key in this game.
In order for the Lions to win this game they must first stop Gore. Though Smith has been solid this year, he has not really been asked upon to win a game for the Niners this season*. Stafford also needs to play a consistent four quarters and avoid making a bad decision. Unfortunately, I don't see all of the cards falling in the right place like they have all season. Lions lose a squeaker: 49ers 20, Lions 17.
*with possible exception to their comeback win at Philly, though he still didn't throw for 300 yards in that game
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No Sims
Great job, but the Lions won’t lose in Detroit. That supposed slight advantage is skewed by the fact that like us, the 49ers played nothing but losing teams and lost at home to a team we beat on the road.
Lions 12th man, the crowd, will be in full effect as it is indeed sold out. If they were at Candlestick Park, I could see how they lose, but if these crowds stay sold out and noisy, I don’t see a loss at home all season.
49ers 20, Lions 30
From 0-16 to the Superbowl baby!
by DLions4Eva on Oct 14, 2011 2:49 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
the crowd will be loud
but ya gonna understand that san fran plays seattle every year and that stadium is loud very very loud. even still i think the lions win
by Gustav Thelen Dow on Oct 14, 2011 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions
The homer in me...
says you’re wrong, sims, wrong haha. But your analyses to this point have been spot on. The only way I see us pulling this one out is if we stop Gore, limit Davis and Walker, and force Smith to beat us with his arm throwing downfield. That would allow our Dline to make a play or two, possibly even a turnover which I think will be the difference in the game. As tough a team as we’ll see all year. Cmon Sunday!
by LionGuy016 on Oct 14, 2011 2:52 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
It is possible we might lose ... BUT
I feel we might just sneak away with a win .. This is the most competitive team we will be facing so far … and the only reason I say we “might” win is cuz it’s a home game ..
I differ on the +1 you gave SF for their passing attack against our passing D .. We can stop that or at least be even on that IMO .. so that totals to Zero .. and we have the home field advantage …
Thanks for the write up ..
And ...
The just lost a WR … I respect their TE’s a lot .. not sure if their passing game is that great .. or it can withstand our D-line for a full 60 minutes ..
They were supposedly shopping around the idea
of getting another Free Agent receiver (Moss? Owens??) but for the most part its the Frank Gore and Vernon Davis show
Fan of the Tigers ~ Red Wings ~ Lions - No Better Town to be a sports fan of!
Fantasy Teams: Pride of Detroit Bench League (PackMules (2-3) & Winging It In Motown Mursak League - (Wingedmule)
Sorry sim
I disagree with your last paragraph. Cards falling into place: gore not carrying niners and staff not making bad decisions. A we didn’t really stop forte Monday and we won anyway. B staff only has 4 picks in five games with 13 tds. Playing four quarters is critical I’ll give you that though.
Matt millen:He puts the oron in moron and the upid in dumb.
by awayfromthepride on Oct 14, 2011 3:08 PM EDT reply actions
If Gore has a game like Forte did though...
You guys are in trouble… Our version of WCO is far superior to Martz’s “greatest show on turf”… We will shorten the game significantly if you let us run like that…
A game like failing to break more than 1 yard on half his carries?
I feel pretty okay about that.
"You've got to respect your opponent, no matter who it is. You respect him best by going out there and beating him up." - Calvin Johnson
by Mavyrk on Oct 14, 2011 6:58 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
this was funny
even though stats will say forte had a decent game, he really didnt, most of the runs we gave up were trap runs from us pressuring cutler all the time, trust me forte was not a factor in that game. Cutler was more a factor
Fair enough...
I meant it in comparison to styles, but you make an excellent point… Gore and Hunter can definitely hurt you to the outside, so i hope that’s what we do…
You’ll be incredibly tough to run against straight up the middle…
If Gore’s running for 120 yards again for us this game, we will be winning…
I think that depends.
I think Gore can run for 120 yards and we’ll be ok depending on the number of big gains. Time of possession will be key. If Gore breaks off a few big runs in that 120 yards, it may lead to some points, but it may not take enough of the clock out to keep our offense from matching.
It's turkey, Lions and Macy's. Any other combination is just ludicrous.
"Only a real man quotes himself in the 3rd person" - Nate D. circa 2011
"Ambition is a poor excuse for not having sense enough to be lazy." - Charlie McCarthy
A fair point...
Gore usually gets his yards in chunks… Not always a “big play” threat… Hoping our ball control offense is on it’s game…
We can’t afford 3 and outs…
If we get points early....
Your in trouble. From what I’ve seen Alex smith Has a high abt rating because he dishes out short passes. Mix that with gore pounding the ball and your on good footing. But if you guys get behind in points can smith push the field with his arm?
Matt millen:He puts the oron in moron and the upid in dumb.
by awayfromthepride on Oct 14, 2011 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Qbr not abt
Matt millen:He puts the oron in moron and the upid in dumb.
by awayfromthepride on Oct 14, 2011 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe...
That’s when the scheme really opens up and we use misdirection and deep passes… Only saw it in the Eagles game though, and you guys are highly unlikely to fold like that…
But we’re sneaky with our offense… We just seem to only do enough to win as a team…
You forget ...
Gore is really good but We play AP twice a year .. your offense is not the factor for us .. it’s you D that can give you a win .. If your D can contain our O .. you win .. if not, we win … We have confidence in our D to contain you well enough .. our O needs to do the same …
I do not forget... But Peterson is a different RB...
Gore finds holes Peterson can’t get through… His vision is excellent… He’s not AP, but different backs give different teams trouble…
You have every right to be confident in your defense, and I have full faith in mine… No gimme game here…
Man, aparently Alex Smith is a top 5 QB now.
don’t try telling NN that he’s a game manager. or that a game manager cant be a top QB.
The Disassembly Line....nuff said.
My thing with it is I believe thoroughly that A.smith is nothing more than a game manager.Do I think gaudy numbers mean everything?no, however his numbers so far are no scary nor do I see them as comprable as to the amount of games they have played. Of Course he has a better rating than staff the dude’s sample size is much smaller thus giving a bigger percentage.He’s close to 500 yards short of matts total yardage and 6TD’s less…GAME MANAGER.Dont get me wrong he has been good and servicable in their situation and im not discrediting them as a TEAM. However, you force A.Smith to beat us we win.That is my opinion I am no expert but just wanted to express ma self!
dude, they are bringing up Joe Montana as a reason that A. Smith is a top QB..
i don’t think that Stafford is a top 5 QB yet but he at least has a chance to be.
NN must have a gas leak somewhere
The Disassembly Line....nuff said.
We've been having issues clarifying a "game manager"...
don’t worry though, at this pace, I expect Smith to be a pro bowl alternate, while Stafford gets 2nd string behind Rodgers and ahead of Brees…
That's what Philly thought...
But he came out possessed in the second half…
We are both second half teams… The 3rd quarter should be the telling one…
Good thing we're the best second half team in the league, eh?
I like those odds, but I’d rather see the Lions play four quarters for once.
"You've got to respect your opponent, no matter who it is. You respect him best by going out there and beating him up." - Calvin Johnson
by Mavyrk on Oct 14, 2011 7:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Well we've ony given up 6 points in the second half in the last 3 games combined...
Should be interesting to watch…
I think you mean
AleX Smith
"Our opponents are nameless and faceless" - Jim Harbaugh
Twitter
by Blowfish on Oct 14, 2011 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Yeah, I saw that over there too
I don’t even care to post over there, but I can’t believe they are this much in love with a guy that was considered a bust just 6 weeks ago. He has average arm strength, is in a conservative run oriented offense that doesn’t ask him to do too much and hasn’t made any major mistakes (yet) so he’s a top 5 qb just because Kurt Warner says he is? He’s like the only guy who thinks that, I’ve never seen Smith’s name anywhere in a top 5 qb list.
I don’t mean to be a dick about it to the niner fans, but they just seem to love proclaiming how the Lions are overrated and Stafford’s average and we can’t run on them and blah blah blah. In my opinion, if the Bears had an o-line, they would be a better team than the 49ers. If Minnesota had a qb, they would be better than the 49ers. I think Green Bay is better than the 49ers and Detroit will prove they are too Sunday at 4:00.
49ers are a middle of the road team with an average qb, a rookie coach, good running game, and an above average defense. I don’t see just because they beat some losing teams with Alex Smith that that warrants them to say we’re overrated and Stafford is average. We are undefeated and Stafford actually could carry his team on his back, unlike Smith who is a game manager type. I’m sick of these damn 49er fans already, acting like Smith is Joe Montanta after 5 average games against lowly competition.
Come Sunday, those Niner fans will realize what a hot start truly means with a rookie coach and an average qb.
From 0-16 to the Superbowl baby!
by DLions4Eva on Oct 14, 2011 5:38 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
In fairness...
That’s general smack talk… You kinda just dished it back out yourself, based on generalizations…
Vikings with a QB? Maybe… But Bears with an o-line? Sorry, but the Bears really aren’t that good anymore, and the defense is porous… If they were better, they’d be winning…
Actually, I didnt
You don’t see me post crap on Niners Nation. I wasn’t talking to the 49er fans, I was talking to my people on my teams’ blog. I wouldn’t do that over there outta respect, but you guys really are quick to defend your game manager qb and call ours average at the same time tho.
And I don’t know anybody who would put Smith in the top 5 besides Warner. Name me one game where he won single handedly, and I don’t mean he didn’t lose it for you and you won, I mean he being the main reason you won. I’d like to hear it.
From 0-16 to the Superbowl baby!
by DLions4Eva on Oct 14, 2011 6:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Fair enough...
First off, I personally see Stafford getting 2nd string Pro Bowl, he’s not average… I have critiques of him, and think he can be beaten, but I feel that way about most every QB…
Second of all, “game manager” is a difficult term to utilize… Smith is not putting up big numbers, but he does do more than ‘just enough’ to not lose…
I would argue, that the 2nd half of the Eagles game he was the deciding factor in us getting back into the game… Our running game clicked, but he had a perfect QB rating in the 3rd quarter and threw a nice TD… Justin Smith clinched the game, and Gore scored the winning TD, but Smith led 3 awesome drives late in that game…
He also led a very nice drive in the 4th against the Bengals that led to the game winning TD…
Last week he played well, but that was a beatdown on all levels…
Right...
Name me a game where he threw the go ahead touchdown or brought them back from a huge deficit to win. I really don’t think you can come up with one.
I don’t think he’s the kind of qb that does those things, that’s probably why you haven’t come up with anything.
From 0-16 to the Superbowl baby!
by DLions4Eva on Oct 14, 2011 6:55 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
this is my argument about smith
he is put into safe positions, short passes control the game which limits int’s
he is solid QB, but ppl are giving him to much credit right now
Perhaps...
But when he played as poorly as he did, and then hasn’t had a truly BAD game yet, people take notice… Also, being 4-1 helps…
Saying he doesn't make mistakes when he, in fact, doesn't make mistakes
Isn’t giving him too much credit.
I don’t think people really understand how shocking it is what he’s done in such limited time with this staff. We’ve seen Alex in a new system six or seven times. It’s just…different this year.
I’m not naming him the MVP. Just saying that this definitely seems to be something different in him. If I’m wrong, oh well, but so far, he definitely is playing top-notch.
"The Harbaughcolypse is upon us. No one in the NFL is safe"
His biggest mistake
is not making mistakes
Currently satiating my hunger for Kings basketball with a renewed focus of the NINERS
Go ahead TD? Hasn't happened yet...
But Smith went 9-9 with over 150 yards and 2 TDs in the 3rd quarter to bring us back from 20 down to beat the Eagles… He did that… 3-23 was 17-23 by the 4th… He led that comeback…
Or do the comebacks your defense led
Mean more that Smith’s to the QB debate?
DL4eva: you clearly haven't followed the 49ers during Smith's career
They didn’t have those types of comebacks in any game during these recent years
and Smith wasn’t the only reason they lost.
Remember we had Calvin and Avril and still went 0-fer … does that mean he sucked? Avril didn’t make the big hit to get the turnover? Calvin didn’t catch the game winner?
It is kind of like the news I could get about the Lions (being in SF) from what the media experts told us on ESPN..
I think we can win because of all you have said- we are in agreement – but you’re analysis of the 49ers (for what they’ve actually done this year) is a bit off.
by BillySimsMadeMeDo on Oct 14, 2011 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions
From what Ive seen
I’m right on. But than again, I haven’t watched whole games just clips on NFL Network and ESPN. Maybe I am wrong and if the Niners do win and we lose, Ill be the first to admit I was wrong and I will apologize for the unfair criticism towards Smith and the 49ers.
Until then, I can’t give Smith the same kind of props I’d give a Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees and I can’t give the 49ers the same like I would the Packers or Saints. I’m sorry if I am wrong or inaccurate, that’s just my opinion wrong or not.
From 0-16 to the Superbowl baby!
by DLions4Eva on Oct 14, 2011 8:43 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I would almost call that false.
Until last week, I think the NFLN and ESPN forgot the Niners played in the NFL. LoL
And this focus on Smith is good, but as good as your offense is, you may as surprised about our defense as you may be with Alex.
"The Harbaughcolypse is upon us. No one in the NFL is safe"
I keep hearing about serious point totals...
They aren’t over estimating their offense, they’re underestimating our defense… I doubt they’ll score more than 24…
I've seen a lot of 30+ point predictions for the Niners over at NN too.
Goes both ways.
"You've got to respect your opponent, no matter who it is. You respect him best by going out there and beating him up." - Calvin Johnson
by Mavyrk on Oct 15, 2011 3:04 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
True enough...
I have it 24-20 niners… No runnig up the score in this one…
Um...two weeks ago?
We were down 20 on the road on Philly, and they had the ball in the red zone.
Gore and Alex both contributed, but Alex threw two TDs in the 21 point comeback. Alex does what he’s asked. If it’s come back, he’s done it thus far in the only chance he REALLY needed to.
"The Harbaughcolypse is upon us. No one in the NFL is safe"
really we did that two weeks in a row not a big deal....
lets stop pretending the eagles are more than they are
Matthew Stafford, Quarterback: a man barely alive, Gentlemen we can rebuild him, We have the technology, We have the capability to make the worlds first bionic QB, Matthew Stafford will be that man, Better than he was before
Better, Stronger, Faster
They said we were a one trick pony, talkin bout CALVIN. Well thats one hell of a TRICK!!!! - Nate B.
I gave you that one game
I am glad you are confident, I am too, but also reserved.
Lions are in for a let down, and the Niners D can hit.
We’ve seen our offensive line have some trouble, plus the Lions starting out slow.
I think home field is huge for the Lions , but you sound a bit dismissive of their chances
so I hope the team is taking them a little more seriously.
by BillySimsMadeMeDo on Oct 14, 2011 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions
People need to stop saying this.
The team wouldn’t be 5-0 if they weren’t taking Every game seriously, same with the Niners. We all understand that the teams aren’t overlooking eachother, it goes without saying.
"You've got to respect your opponent, no matter who it is. You respect him best by going out there and beating him up." - Calvin Johnson
by Mavyrk on Oct 15, 2011 3:06 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Team do overlook each other.
Complacency is a real issue. All the crazy talk about Freddie P. Soft form Harbaugh was not a completely crazy talk.
The Lions and the 9ers are not overlooking eachother.
It’s a 5-0 team versus a 4-1 team. It’s a ridiculous notion.
"You've got to respect your opponent, no matter who it is. You respect him best by going out there and beating him up." - Calvin Johnson
I agree
But I have been surprised by some of the Lions fans on the POD
who seem to be taking the 49ers lightly.
I think they have a physical D, and the O has been improving but still coming through in clutch situations.
I think the Lions have enough firepower to win, on fast turf at home. I just don’t take it as lightly as other fans here
by BillySimsMadeMeDo on Oct 15, 2011 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions
ok talking in who we played
eagles….LOL they are nothing until they get it together
you lost to dallas….we won
you beat seattle….i dont even have to answer this they still dont have a QB
you beat cin….they have a defense….and a rookie QB crappy offense
the ONLY thing you guys have going for you is you blewout the bucs on the road thats it.
talk about smack talking I mean seriously
Smack talking? I merely said we were better than the Bears...
Which is true on many many levels… Seattle is not good, but a tiny bit better than we give them credit for…
We lost to Dallas in OT, and you had to come from way behind to win… Great job by the way…
Philly has issues, but we held them to 3 points in the second half in order to win that one…
Honestly, your guys’ competition hasn’t been much better… 2 of 5 games are the same, and you beat 2 division rivals that barely have more wins combined as the Seahawks…
Good game = good smack talk…
They beat Tampa at home
And beat Philly on the road. I’m just not scared to play them, I’m sorry. I was more worried to plau Chicago and Dallas honestly.
From 0-16 to the Superbowl baby!
by DLions4Eva on Oct 14, 2011 6:37 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I think the 9ers D is really good, having said that...if we stop the running game
its lights out.
The Disassembly Line....nuff said.
That's unfortunate...
We were hoping we were taken more seriously around the league…
I was the first lions fan here to take 49ers seriously
this was before the chicago game, I said this game scares me more than any game till thanksgiving.
I think 49ers defense is good, solid fats great corners. I’m personally not worried about there offense.
Sorry I thought you were talking smack I misread
No worries..
And ya… We both play really meaningful games on Turkey Day… My team can say the exact same thing as yours…
This is one of the 3 most important games of the year for us…
oh ya you guys have the harbaugh bowl
im definitely watching that I love what the harbaughs bring to the nfl, better than the ryan’s imo
They're funnier...
And do it without being total asshats…
Also, better at their jobs…
Jim already has enough awesome quotes to fill 20 Coors commercials
Currently satiating my hunger for Kings basketball with a renewed focus of the NINERS
by Tetsu on Oct 15, 2011 4:46 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think you are not actually playing.
So whether you are scared or not is largely irrelevant.
I just hope the Detroit players take the game as dismissively as you do. But something tells me that they do not.
by Mindless on Oct 14, 2011 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
The streak their are it is hard not to have a let down, but JS seems focused
by BillySimsMadeMeDo on Oct 14, 2011 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions
More money is lost in Vegas betting on streaks to end than anything else.
“Due for a letdown” is a tired cliche.
"You've got to respect your opponent, no matter who it is. You respect him best by going out there and beating him up." - Calvin Johnson
by Mavyrk on Oct 15, 2011 3:07 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't think let down games are cliche
I think I have definitely seen it happen.. those teams don’t always end up losing the game, but can play ugly, make mistakes, be flat showing little emotion, etc…
More money is lost in Vegas betting on NFL games. lol
by BillySimsMadeMeDo on Oct 15, 2011 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Tony Romo gave you that game.
Not taking ANYTHING away from Detroit, but you guys were down a good bit. No way Harbaugh does anything to give the defenses two pick 6s or whatever it was. If you get down that much to us, you will be in trouble unless Megatron hauls in a few bombs.
"The Harbaughcolypse is upon us. No one in the NFL is safe"
I say Garrett not just Romo
but the Lions very well could have made the stops and still scored
even if the Cowboys had played it differently.
Remember the Eagles kicker during the Niners win on their big comeback…Jason Hanson has been making those kicks
by BillySimsMadeMeDo on Oct 15, 2011 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
but you guys are so superior that you just powered back into the eagles games....
so fucking backwards you guys made turnovers or stops to come back in the game, but its a fluke if we do it. hahaha get out of here, if the eagles werent so god awful they would of scored some TDs instead of 3 FGs.
Matthew Stafford, Quarterback: a man barely alive, Gentlemen we can rebuild him, We have the technology, We have the capability to make the worlds first bionic QB, Matthew Stafford will be that man, Better than he was before
Better, Stronger, Faster
They said we were a one trick pony, talkin bout CALVIN. Well thats one hell of a TRICK!!!! - Nate B.
Relax bro
No one said Alex Smith was the next Joe Montana..at least spell the greatest QB’s name right haha
He’s playing good, besides if you want to discredit him, its easier to say Stafford is garbage cause most of his TD’s went to Johnson, who is a monster and most likely always brings it down. Would that make him a good qb? Idk reminds me of Kolb in Arizona just lobbing it up to Fitz, who makes crazy catches
im sick of this arguement too... im not going to feel bad cause we have CJ
first Stafford has 13TDs and Kolb has 5TDs…
Alex Smith is only better than Stafford in Completion % 65.9 to 63.6, QB rating 104.1 to 101.4, INTs 4 -1, and sacks Smith 14 Stafford 6.
Not to mention that Stafford throws roughly 37 times a game and Smith throws 25 times a game. Stafford has thrown 2 alex smith games (62) more than Smith and has better numbers. So lets not talk about who is garbage
Matthew Stafford, Quarterback: a man barely alive, Gentlemen we can rebuild him, We have the technology, We have the capability to make the worlds first bionic QB, Matthew Stafford will be that man, Better than he was before
Better, Stronger, Faster
They said we were a one trick pony, talkin bout CALVIN. Well thats one hell of a TRICK!!!! - Nate B.
If we execute, it doesnt matter what they do
If we dont, your probably right.
"Common Sense, isn't" Solomon Short
There is a typo in that last line.
Lions 20, 49ers 17
there, fixed it.
"Lemme Tell you why I have confidence in the long term future of this team... It's #9, That's why I have confidence in the long term future of this Team." - Jim Schwartz
NONSENSE
We’re going to work these guys over. PLEASE. They just lost their best wideout, and Gore will be neutralized and no more of a threat than Forte. We just got BETTER on the D-line, it’s crazy the things they’ll be able to do with these linemen. On that 4th and 1 they had Suh at DE, Williams and Hill in the middle and KVB on the other side. They are already subbing Hill and Fairley for Suh and Williams straight up on some rotations. Opposing teams should be frightened. Lions by 20.
SO SORRY Matt Stafford has not been PERFECT, really. Every QB forces throws in every game. Look at his rating and stats, all you need to do is complement his stellar play.
"best" might be a stretch...
Certainly most consistent, but we have 2 tight ends that line up wide…
And our defense is not to be mocked… There will be no “working us over”… If you win, it will be a hard fought game won in the 4th quarter…
I'm PUMPING UP THE TROOPS HERE
You DARE question my declarative statements? Ha. Sorry man, to be serious, your defense is going to run into our big nasty offensive line, they are playing to win this year, this is a veteran line that has been abused for years. They are really playing well, and they are huge. They are also wearing defenses down as the game goes along. Dose of reality for you guys this weekend. Better team, better coaching.
Better coaching?
Better team? I mean, obviously we’ll differ, no doubt, but I would say that in those aspects we are nearly even… We have similar styles, players and drive…
But better coaching? Maybe you don’t respect Harbaugh, and that’s kool, but after 10 years of mediocrity, we spend 6 weeks with Harbaugh and we’re already 10X the team we were last year with 90% the same team… That’s good coaching…
Not to put down Shwartz(probably misspelled) but our team is experiencing nearly as big a turnaround as you are…
And why let you rile up the troops?
It’ll be loud enough in Detroit as it is… lol
our oline struggled against the Vikings
by BillySimsMadeMeDo on Oct 15, 2011 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Give Jared Allen enough time
and he could make the Great Wall of China struggle to block him
Currently satiating my hunger for Kings basketball with a renewed focus on the NINERS
Just LOOK at Gosder for crying out loud
The guy is Shaq huge, maybe 5 inches shorter but he would not look small standing next to Shaq. Peterman looks small standing next to him and he’s 325 easy. He’s mauling ends this year. Are high draft picks are shining this year. Look out! 6-0!
An excellent o-line no doubt...
And you guys are big… Luckily, our lineman may be small, but they never stop moving and are sneaky with their penetration…
And even though your guys are massive, Aldon Smith has 1" of arm reach over your tallest lineman… The Condor is a freak…
no way
his arms are one inch longer than their OTs thats so crazy
"Hi my name is Cliff Harris and I am here to lock [site decorum] down" - Cliff Harris introduction at his Freshman Orientation
Reporter : "What do you remember about the BCS title game"
Cliff Harris: "That we lost"
"Stopping the run doesn't come because of scheme. It come because of want to." - Donte Whitner
Follow @manraj76
When Jim Harbaugh says "more is more" I think he is trying to say Moore is more.
Yep...
Gosder Cherilus stands 6’7" and has 35 inch arms…
Aldon Smith stands 6’4" and has 35 1/2 inch arms…
2 arms = 1/2 × 2 = 1 inch of reach…
It’s absolutely ludicrous length…
wow
thats just wow
"Hi my name is Cliff Harris and I am here to lock [site decorum] down" - Cliff Harris introduction at his Freshman Orientation
Reporter : "What do you remember about the BCS title game"
Cliff Harris: "That we lost"
"Stopping the run doesn't come because of scheme. It come because of want to." - Donte Whitner
Follow @manraj76
When Jim Harbaugh says "more is more" I think he is trying to say Moore is more.
and "every QB" is wrong too...
AleX hasn’t been forcing anything at all… Only 1 INT…
If you think you’ll steamroll us by 20, maybe we haven’t been watching the same 2 teams…
Ok been reading NN
What the fuck does AleX mean? Really? Im sorry but after hearing for years how bad this guy is, and even their own fans VILIFYING him week after week, year after year, now hes Joe Montana 2.0? The offense is vanilla, it compensates and hides his weaknesses. He will be exposed, might not be this week cause I think this game is gonna be tough. But its alex FREAKING Smith. Give me a break.
AleX Smith is our QB this year.
Alex Smith was our QB from 2005-2010.
And no one is saying he is Montana.
it compensates and hides his weaknesses.
Isn’t that what you’re supposed to do? Play to your teams’ strengths. No? Okay.
Clayton Kershaw, Giant Killer | KeMVP
"By now if u don't believe the Niners are for real ur probably not that good at what u do..." - Donte Whitner
Same terrible QB
Capitalizing the X in his name doesnt change the fact hes fucking terrible.
Uh. okay?
7 TD’s-1 INT.
Clayton Kershaw, Giant Killer | KeMVP
"By now if u don't believe the Niners are for real ur probably not that good at what u do..." - Donte Whitner
Theres a much
Larger sample size of what kinda QB he is. Of course I dont have to tell you that. He got replaced last year, year before by a guy they signed off the street. I havent looked back as to why, if its an injury, then so be it. Im wrong. However if not, youd need 5 All Pro years straight to erase that stink off ya.
True, but we're still enjoying it...
5 pro bowls or just 1 SB MVP… lol
He got replaced last year due to injury.
Clayton Kershaw, Giant Killer | KeMVP
"By now if u don't believe the Niners are for real ur probably not that good at what u do..." - Donte Whitner
As I said
I didnt look it up, just trying to ruffle some feathers, I think everyone is pumped for the game. Cant wait for the game.
We're definitely pumped...
Should be delightfully good football to watch for once…
again the 49ers were a mess
it’s like throwing him in when ****** ran the Lions.
which by the way, as we have thou who shall remain nameless, they have AleX. no harm no foul
but don’t act like we don’t have fans that are above that type of thing
by BillySimsMadeMeDo on Oct 14, 2011 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I realize now
That I came off WAY too overzealous. I was just trying to raise some hell and thought the X was funny. Sorry guys carry on. Hope everyone enjoys the game and has a safe ride home if you are out!
Nah... It's just somethin we've done to recognize his actually good play...
No offense taken for misunderstanding… It is pretty weird…
Wait... What?
How can you say that’s terrible? Because he doesn’t throw for 300 yards every game? Watch the Philly game, 2nd half…
If he puts up wins, isn’t that what matters…? Don’t expect him to suck, just because he did in years past… This is not the same team…
And relax
Im not a troll, honestly I dont post much, just gettin things riled up a bit. hes still Alex Smith. Good luck Sunday.
good game then...
He may still be the same guy, but I’m seeing a different QB out there… lol… I’ll take my chances, good luck yourself… You’ll need it… ;)
Fantasy Football
ruins another fan’s perception.
If they don’t have monster numbers, they are terrible. Didn’t you know this?
"The Harbaughcolypse is upon us. No one in the NFL is safe"
And 5-0 doesn't change the fact that you guys have been "fucking terrible" for the last CENTURY
Sorry had to go there, be rational god damn it
"Century" isn't being rational, lol.
"You've got to respect your opponent, no matter who it is. You respect him best by going out there and beating him up." - Calvin Johnson
by Mavyrk on Oct 15, 2011 3:11 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
To be honest
You’ve been pretty damn terrible since 2000
Currently satiating my hunger for Kings basketball with a renewed focus of the NINERS
it was a response to tomren
and yeah, half century haha
dont get me wrong, i like the lions, but the TomRen calling the Niners terrible was just ridiculous
Uh read what I said
And then comment. I NEVER said the 49ers were terrible. Try again.
And capitalizing the X is just a fun thing we've done
To accommodate the fact that we don’t see the same QB out there we did last year… We’re as surprised as anyone…
All that...
And no mention of our best offensive player.
Interesting.
"The Harbaughcolypse is upon us. No one in the NFL is safe"
I think it's because VD actually scares them...
They ignore him rather than talk ill of him…
I hope the Lions' staff does the same.
It’ll get ugly quick. LoL
"The Harbaughcolypse is upon us. No one in the NFL is safe"
Hopefully they think they can cover him with a LB...
They have serious confidence(much of it deserved) in those guys…
Not a LB alive that could cover VD… Not likely even Willis…
I'm scared of VD too
That’s why I practice safe sex.
Currently satiating my hunger for Kings basketball with a renewed focus of the NINERS
by Tetsu on Oct 15, 2011 4:50 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
San Fran's Oline...
Will not be able to sustain 60 minutes of Detroit’s Defensive line rotation.
If San Fran wins… its due to turnovers and Special teams…. a straight up contest will go to the home team.
“How to speak San Franciscan”….
http://twitter.com/#!/rumbulls
This is a huge deal
Our defense is beating teams up, look at them all in the 4th. They want it to just end. LETS GO LIONS!
This is certainly you're best asset...
Hopefully we can just get around them… I don’t know how well our power formation will work…
DVOA has us as the best power running D
Food for thought.
"You've got to respect your opponent, no matter who it is. You respect him best by going out there and beating him up." - Calvin Johnson
by Mavyrk on Oct 14, 2011 7:06 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Ya... I know...
That’s why I’m concerned… It’s about 1/2 our runs…
Without Morgan
I think the Lions can pull this one out. After all, Ginn usually only plays well against the Jets. Yeah, I know about the Seahawk game…
careful on returns...
He’ll hit a hole and leave EVERYONE behind…
You have to make him move laterally, he doesn’t have one of the top kick and punt return averages by accident…
They'll use the same game plan they used against Hester and make him look stupid...
President of the Tony Scheffler Fan Club
Good idea...
He is equally dangerous… Treat him that way… Ginn returns kicks too though, How’re you guys at touchbacks?
Hester returned kicks too...
They used directional punts and kickoffs and even pinned Hester on the 6 yard line on a KICKOFF by forcing him to make a mistake.
President of the Tony Scheffler Fan Club
Nice job then...
Thought the Bears used Knox, but in fairness I was paying WAY more attention to you guys…
Kendall Hunter will probably take directional kicks if you don’t get them deep enough…
Lions had one of the best kick coverage teams last season...
So going in they wanted to use them and not just go for touchbacks every time. The first few weeks they were sloppy, but the last couple games they’ve looked pretty damn amazing.
President of the Tony Scheffler Fan Club
Good to hear...
Always better to challenge a good competitor… Our special teams is pretty fantastic this year… No turnovers, amazing field position(both ways), and 2 of the best kickers in the league…
Will be nice to see if we can be effective against an equally good unit…
Fun Fact: Niners are the only team with a pro bowl kicker, punter, and long snapper…
There will be two teams after this year.
Even if they don’t get selected, Jason Hanson is a pro bowl kicker (HoF more like it). Donahue has pro bowl talent and is lighting it up this year. Muhlbach, well, I’ve honestly never seen a bad snap from this guy, I love having him.
It's turkey, Lions and Macy's. Any other combination is just ludicrous.
"Only a real man quotes himself in the 3rd person" - Nate D. circa 2011
"Ambition is a poor excuse for not having sense enough to be lazy." - Charlie McCarthy
Will agree... A decent punter...
But Andy Lee is killing it, and I dunno if they take 2 punters… Hanson is reliable and definitely HOF worthy…
The tough one is the long snapper… Jennings has been around 11 years, only has 1…
Muhlbach is invisible
which is good for a long snapper. I literally forget he’s on the team sometimes because he never gets called on for mistakes. I’d give your punter the edge for experience. Donahue is a rookie, but he also seems to be killing it. God I love special teams. The K, P, LS positions are so vital, its nice to see another fan and coaching staff that agrees.
It's turkey, Lions and Macy's. Any other combination is just ludicrous.
"Only a real man quotes himself in the 3rd person" - Nate D. circa 2011
"Ambition is a poor excuse for not having sense enough to be lazy." - Charlie McCarthy
Special teams is the difference for us...
Andy Lee may be the best in the biz(45.8 net average I believe), and Akers already broke the record for longest FG ever made in Candlestick… Jennings has been with us 11 years, and i don’t think he has ever once botched a snap…
It’s nice that we finally have a returner that I don’t hold my breath when the ball’s in the air… Love special teams… So underrated…
When he was with the Dolphins
he went down on the first hit. Not a great route runner, either. It was fun to watch him scare the Jets, though.
He's not gonna bounce off guys, for sure...
But I’ve seen him make guys miss since he’s come here… Not the greatest WR, but if you get caught in a footrace, you won’t win…
Has a tendency to go out of bounds rather than hit someone, but he’s usually 10 yards down field at that point so it’s all good…
He could make the field for your guys last year
12 catches for a buck 63? If you ever heard the press conference when he got drafted by the Dolphins, it was a hoot! I also see he is probable with a finger injury.
Crabtree has a foot problem as well. I expect Gore right, Gore left, Gore up the middle myself.
Hands of Stone...
Good for a boxer, bad for a WR… Improved a little this year though…
He also had 0 fumbles on returns, and 2 TD’s with the 3rd highest punt return average… The guy is a returner first, and one of the best in the league…
Crabtree had foot issues, but you won’t notice it, and Ginn probably won’t be targeted more than 4 times the whole game…
Gore right, Hunter left, Gore up the middle, play action to Walker… If Gore is running that much, that means it’s working…
Throw in some
Vernon Davis. Yeah, I always thought of Ginn as a return guy, not an every down player. When he got drafted at 9 overall I rolled my eyes.
You are right about Gore up the middle. When he got popped in the knee at Miami, that changed him.
He's fast approaching our all time rushing record...
He’s been nothing short of awesome for this team, even when we were terrible…
Crabtree always have foot problems
"Hi my name is Cliff Harris and I am here to lock [site decorum] down" - Cliff Harris introduction at his Freshman Orientation
Reporter : "What do you remember about the BCS title game"
Cliff Harris: "That we lost"
"Stopping the run doesn't come because of scheme. It come because of want to." - Donte Whitner
Follow @manraj76
When Jim Harbaugh says "more is more" I think he is trying to say Moore is more.
Can't pick against the home team
Can’t do it man. I truly believe the Lions are better than the 49ers overall, and even if I thought the teams were equals you must pick the home team. Lions haven’t played a complete game yet and an erratic Stafford has left many points on the field. When it starts going smoother this game at home against SF wouldn’t even be a pick’em. What if Detroit steps up this sunday and plays up to their potential?
If Detroit plays a full, complete game, and the niners play like they did last week...
It will look like a fantastic playoff game you could be watching in January… Come down to who has the ball last…
sadly durant is out
I think carpenter will step up, but I am a little worried now abut covering vernon. He is a very athletic TE and I hope bobby does his thing and keep him in control
The way Carp has been playing as of late
I think I’d PREFER having Carp playing out there. He’s been a beast out there since the Dallas game. Nothing against Durant, but Carps really played well in his absence
Fan of the Tigers ~ Red Wings ~ Lions - No Better Town to be a sports fan of!
Fantasy Teams: Pride of Detroit Bench League (PackMules (2-3) & Winging It In Motown Mursak League - (Wingedmule)
Interesting with Carpenter
1st round pick with Dallas and never did much. Goes to Miami and couldn’t get on the field. Now he looks like a completely different player.
Miami and Dallas both ran 3-4s.
We run a 4-3. It’s kind of obvious what happened.
"You've got to respect your opponent, no matter who it is. You respect him best by going out there and beating him up." - Calvin Johnson
With Miami
they had Dansby, Wake, Misi, and Crowder. When Dansby and Crowder got hurt, Carpenter actually started a couple of games, but he was not too good. You may be right that is was just a matter of the system, but you whiff on a 1st rounder…
Their problem not ours, no?
"You've got to respect your opponent, no matter who it is. You respect him best by going out there and beating him up." - Calvin Johnson
True
I am just surprised that someone did not figure that out on draft day. But if it hurts the Boys, it makes me very happy!
I admire your objectivity sims.....
..but I am not so constrained. As I discussed with Latif in another thread, the Niners are only averaging 300 yards per game, good for 27th in the NFL this year. Last year, with turmoil galore, they averaged 313 yards over the whole season. Their offence has shown that they cannot manufacture points without help from their Special Teams, their defence, or the opponents.
The Niner offence lives off of field position. A high turnover differential and a great punting game [they have a net average of 45.8 yards, the best in the NFL] combined with a very good return team puts them in a position to score. The Niners are not the type of team to be able to drive the length of the field.
If the Lions don’t committ turnovers [they have not turned the ball over more than once per game] and neutralize the return game, I don’t see the 49er offence scoring more than 14 points on Sunday.
My prediction, 23 to 10 Lions.
My 2011 Lions season prediction: 12 wins and 4 losses. I made this prediction the week after the New England preseason game. It's looking a little pessimistic right now.
by NorthLeft12 on Oct 14, 2011 4:22 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
"if" is good...
If you can do that, than I have no doubt you’ll win, but we haven’t lost the field position battle yet…
“If” however, you can’t contain Ginn or sustain long drives yourself, I see you losing a close game…
Here is another "IF" to add to your collection Takeo [isn't he gone?]
IF the Lions do turn it over a couple of times more than the Niners, we will win 20 to 16.
My 2011 Lions season prediction: 12 wins and 4 losses. I made this prediction the week after the New England preseason game. It's looking a little pessimistic right now.
IF you lose the turnover battle...
I wouldn’t expect a win… Believe it or not, we actually make teams pay for their mistakes now…
And yes, he’s gone, but I’ve used this screen name for 8 years, before he was ever a niner…
We will not lose the turnover battle. Niner Nation...meet the old Alex Smith.
At least what will be left of him.
My 2011 Lions season prediction: 12 wins and 4 losses. I made this prediction the week after the New England preseason game. It's looking a little pessimistic right now.
Your analysis is normally spot on but
I look at Smith’s numbers differently. His two real good games occured when the running game was also going. No way SF’s pass and run offense gets going against us.
And you don’t give us a big enough advantage on pass offense. Look at the numbers they allowed vs Dallas and Philly. Huge numbers given up. Their other numbers are skewed against a junk Qb in Seattle, a rookie in Cinn, and a team already blown out in TB. Stafford and company will light them up.
I dont see this game being close at all. Lions 38 SF 14. My money is on the Lions -4.
You think you can put up 38 on us?
If you think we only score twice, that’s fine… But you realistically expect to put 5 TD’s and a field goal on us? I seriously doubt you’ll find our defense that easy to get touchdowns on…
You should believe in your
defense, but I believe in our offense. Why do you assume the score reflects only offensive tds? I think our d forces you guys to be one dimensional. A see a pic6 or fumble returned for td. I also witnessed Vick and Romo able to move the ball pretty easily through the air. Heck, Kitna was moving the ball well too, just threw Ints.
I also believe in the East coast swing. 3 games on the east coast in 4 weeks. Tough for anyone to play.
Reasonable explanation at least...
I wouldn’t be surprised to lose, you guys are good… But I’d be very surprised to see a pick 6 or a fumble TD… We’re one of the few teams that turn the ball over less than you do…
But if you guys can put up 4 offensive(passing) TD’s, I will be amazed… If you can beat our defense(with points, not just yards), you can beat anyone’s…
Every week the SF plays there is more film out there.
I do not expect the Harbaugh /Smith magic to last all season. Will it last through Sunday? We’ll have to see.
"But the point is, finger-pointing is just what sports fans do when something doesn't go right." -- Kurt Mensching
by RealityIsOptionable on Oct 14, 2011 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I do...
The system is working… More film just means Harbaugh will have to switch more things up…
Smith won’t beat you alone, but luckily, in this system, he doesn’t have to… 1 game is magic, 5 is a trend…
Harbaugh is a smart man.
After all he does have a Michigan education. I’d just like to see how long his magic wand works.
"But the point is, finger-pointing is just what sports fans do when something doesn't go right." -- Kurt Mensching
by RealityIsOptionable on Oct 14, 2011 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm hoping the next 10 years...
But that’s just me…
Propped up by
A huge endorsement deal from Viagra.
by TomRem on Oct 14, 2011 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Given his recent remarks.
I would expect some endorsements from some anti-psychotic medication.
“Pop this pill, and Frederick P.Soft will not make you wake up crying”
(I do like Jim.)
Does that mean we'll win? I have no idea...
More worried going into this sunday than any other this year…
Durant and Scheffler both out...this sucks...at least it looks like we get our SS back though.
The Disassembly Line....nuff said.
This is where depth at TE comes in handy...
As much as a I love Scheff, I have no doubt Heller will be able to adequately fill his shoes.
President of the Tony Scheffler Fan Club
Alright...Where would you rank our LB core with the league?
NN seems to think its in the bottom 5
The Disassembly Line....nuff said.
Not everyone over there pays attention though...
Carpenter has been really good for you guys… I’d put you middle of the pack, but you don’t have any “elite” backers like we have to stand above the rest… Your strength is certainly the d-line, but that doesn’t make your backers bad by default…
We may have a top 3 LB group, certainly top 10 this year, you guys are prolly around 14,15 in my opinion…
Tulloch isn't an elite backer? huh?
I’d consider top 5 MLB.
President of the Tony Scheffler Fan Club
Top 5 MLB? No...
He’s certainly no slouch, but that may be a bit of homer-ism on your part… I would probably rank him at a solid 7 for his play this year…
He’s been awesome for you guys… Good front office moves by you guys recently… Feels good after years of terrible decisions doesn’t it?
Dude was second in the league in tackles last year..were only 5 games in and because of our defensive line and other Lb’s he doesnt have to work like that anymore.I would consider him top 5, homerism aside.Just like i would consider V.D. a top 5 TE.Has nothing to do with homerism just acknowledging talent.Obviously he hasnt put up the numbers yet but i have no doubt he will.
Tackles are a deceiving stat...
Tennessee got run on a lot, and the defense spent quite a bit of time on the field… His instincts are good, and you got him going into his prime…
Good yes, and soon to be elite I have no doubt, but not there yet… In the next 2 years, your 3 backers may be in easy competition for a top 3 spot with Carpenter, Durant, and Tulloch, but not yet…
I can still name 5 inside/middle LBs that I think are better than Tulloch… Dunno if that’ll be the case by next season… Especially with Beason hurt and Ray Lewis retiring soon…
Where's Levy?
It seems you don’t even know our full LB rotation… just what the media spews.
President of the Tony Scheffler Fan Club
My apologies...
Do you know our full rotation though?
Levy doesn’t have as good a tackle per game ratio, and from what I’ve seen, I’d prefer Durant and am pleased we don’t have to face him…
Didn’t mean to offend… You guys have a really nice group of young linebackers…
and I meant as a 4-3 group...
we have a good 3-4 corps, you have a good 4-3… Both will be near tops in the league for quite a while…
tackles are not a decieving stat for the scheme there in
being a 4-3 that dont blitz hardly ever what else stats is he going to get…..
I meant as far as how league quatifies them...
Not all tackles are created equally, and solo tackles IMO are more important than assisted ones…
Also where on the field they are in relation to the play, and tackles within 3 yards of the line of scrimmage would be good to know too…
They can also be increased just by spending more time on the field… When the niners were dirt awful and only won like 5 games in 2 seasons, Willis led the league in tackles…
As we got better, his tackles decreased marginally… Still a great player…
Tulloch is a good, improving LB… Will easily make the lions a feared linebacking corps over the next few years…
I think willis got put into a better position to make plays rather than rack up his tackles stat
he is one of if not the fastest LB out there. He is all over the field rather than stopping running backs at line
I'll admit this
Willis is a beast of a Linebacker, one of the best in the game atm
Fan of the Tigers ~ Red Wings ~ Lions - No Better Town to be a sports fan of!
Fantasy Teams: Pride of Detroit Bench League (PackMules (2-3) & Winging It In Motown Mursak League - (Wingedmule)
But I do agree, I'd consider the Lions LBs to be somewhere in the top 15, maybe top 10
President of the Tony Scheffler Fan Club
Definitely...
And I’m looking at their ages, and am surprised… They’ll be a top 5 group soon, and could stick there for quite a while…
Pro Football Focus currently has Tulloch as the highest rated ILB.
by Hyperion Ecta on Oct 14, 2011 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes they do ; )
Yooperlionfan is officially "the man"
the Lions D-Line: the Four Horsemen of the A-sack-alypse
Jim Schwartz: Erasing the stink of Millen, one fist pump at a time.
P.C.P: It is not just for recreation anymore.
That's pretty damn good...
I’m willing to bet they also have Willis ranked 1 or 2 as far as MLB’s in 3-4…
Might have to rethink my “elite” status after this weekend… Looking forward to see how he matches up with Gore/our tight ends…
I agree, this is the hardest game we have one the schedule so far.
And I am in the belief it will be an extremely close game. The Lions fan in me wants to take the Lions as a W. But I can’t say the 49ers won’t win either. My feeling is this: if we start slow like we have the last few weeks, we will not be able to come back in this game like we have the other two. They are a running team and they will not abandon the run like other teams seem to have against us. Short passes and runs and they will kill the clock.
We need to put some points up early and force them to pass. If we can do that, we can beat the 49ers. Handily. I do believe. Alex Smith will make mistakes in that position.
"Football isn't a contact sport, it's a collision sport. Dancing is a contact sport."
--Duffy Daugherty
by GhostManOnThird on Oct 14, 2011 4:45 PM EDT reply actions
For the record, I think we CAN win this game
I really try to be objective with this preview and ignore my own personal beliefs.
If I were just to look at this game like I look at the rest of the league, I’d probably pick the Lions. But these charts usually are fairly accurate and I wouldn’t be doing them justice if I just ignored the numbers.
Be my friend on twitter @DetroitOnLion, but please don't be my friend in real-life. You all scare me.
by simscity on Oct 14, 2011 5:06 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 2 recs
It was a great write up
It bummed me out, but your "On Paper" series are well thought out.
"But the point is, finger-pointing is just what sports fans do when something doesn't go right." -- Kurt Mensching
by RealityIsOptionable on Oct 14, 2011 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions
On the plus side
The Dunkel Index (one of the most successful handicapping indeces in sports history) has us covering with an over total.
"You've got to respect your opponent, no matter who it is. You respect him best by going out there and beating him up." - Calvin Johnson
by Mavyrk on Oct 14, 2011 7:13 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Strangley enough
I’m not overly concerned about whether we win or lose. I’m so proud of this team for what they’ve done, I’m mainly looking for a real hard fought game. I feel like were standing tall and I’m not concerned about proving this or that…
That said, I’ll give the slight edge to the Leos playing at home. I feel like the pressure we should get on Smith and the way the crowd gets into it will be enough energy for the Lions to pull this one out in the 4th…
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Good point
Losing this game would not be a big deal. The Lions will likely be competing for a WC spot, but the niners have all but clinched their division. If there’s an NFC team that we can afford losing to, it’s SF. We already have two big wins over Dallas and TB.
Be my friend on twitter @DetroitOnLion, but please don't be my friend in real-life. You all scare me.
You forgot to account for home field and east time zone advantage.
That is easily +2 on your scale.
I am a 49r fan, and I do expect them to lose, but possibly to cover the spread. 24-21 or something like that.
Sure, we're on the road and it's a 10am game.
But we’re 2-0 in both of those situations.
For the Lions, you have to add in the fact that they played on Monday and they don’t have a day off. They’re also coming off an emotional win against Chicago, which could set them up for a let down.
Clayton Kershaw, Giant Killer | KeMVP
"By now if u don't believe the Niners are for real ur probably not that good at what u do..." - Donte Whitner
That kinda emotion can go both ways tho
It was a huge win for us, it erased some demons. Could work in their favor due to a huge boost in confidence, altho not sure thats needed. Either way its gonna be a bruising game. Dont expect a blowout either way and I wouldnt bet on this game if you paid me. Lets just hope for no major injuries.
Can I just say that
capitalizing "X" in Alex Smith somehow makes him a new quarterback with SF fans.
That is comical. Lets just ignore all the past seasons " AleX" has played.
"But the point is, finger-pointing is just what sports fans do when something doesn't go right." -- Kurt Mensching
by RealityIsOptionable on Oct 14, 2011 7:23 PM EDT reply actions
It is comical... That's the point...
He just doesn’t look like the same guy behind center as we’ve seen in the past…
regression toward the mean
"But the point is, finger-pointing is just what sports fans do when something doesn't go right." -- Kurt Mensching
by RealityIsOptionable on Oct 14, 2011 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions
having a QB head coach I think helps him as well
Harbaugh knows what it takes to mold a good QB into a better QB.
so maybe Luck is garbage and was playing better because harbaugh was there?
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Actually, there are some on our blog that think it's the case...
Not that he’s garbage, but that he is vastly over rated… But having Harbaugh as a coach certainly didn’t hurt…
He went from being not too highly recruited
to the next John Elway or Peyton Manning, as ESPN has named him.
Harbaugh certainly knew a little about how to coach a QB. Not taking anything from Luck, but I don’t think he’d be where he is if he played for another coach.
"The Harbaughcolypse is upon us. No one in the NFL is safe"
If the niners get a 1st round bye...
We’d be hard to pass up… If you win the division and/or beat the Pack in GB how could you not with that turnaround… If both happen(an actual possibility at this point), they may very well have to share it…
Green Bay would have to win 15 or 16 games and both our teams trail off to get the award… They pretty much “are who we thought they were”…
I'm really struggling with this one
I believe in our team, and I think we have the talent to beat any team, and being at home gives me even more confidence. But…
The 49ers present an intriguing matchup in my eyes, one that concerns me. We do tend to struggle in containing running games, and San Fran is largely a running team, plus, they have a particularly great defence. If Stafford cannot click, and Best doesn’t offer any help, then I think the defence won’t be able to keep giving us the chances to win. In saying that though, I can’t go against my Lions.
Lions 17-49ers 14
It is going to be the best game we have seen so far.
I’m just bummed GB has St. L.
We could use a little help here.
"But the point is, finger-pointing is just what sports fans do when something doesn't go right." -- Kurt Mensching
by RealityIsOptionable on Oct 14, 2011 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Would help us too more than hurt...
No way the Rams challenge us this season… Love for them to surprise GB, but their defense is just plain BAD…
the injuries to their offense really hurt too
They were decent til they lost Steven Jackson during the week 1 game against the Eagles. If Jackson plays that entire game, its possible the Eagles “Dream Team” is 0-5
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booooooooo
go GB
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"Stopping the run doesn't come because of scheme. It come because of want to." - Donte Whitner
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When Jim Harbaugh says "more is more" I think he is trying to say Moore is more.
Scheme wise I hope D line looks to shut the run down first
not so aggressive to the QB, but with a little more control to take away that ground game.
Then if they do open it up, then it plays to the Lions defensive strengths, and an area that Smith has had trouble in (lots of pressure forcing mistakes).
The fact Iupati is limping could be a huge factor against the 49ers.
by BillySimsMadeMeDo on Oct 14, 2011 7:52 PM EDT reply actions
Looking at it, we realy need a fast start this game, this is the game to have that
if we end up at half with 14-17 point lead our defensive will hold, if we are down 14 and Gore is running out of his mind, I’m not sure if we have that MIN/DAL miracle in us.
Stafford is going to have to attack the defense early and often. Give it to Best on screens, Titus across the middle CJ in the corners. I do hope we get the ball in 2nd half though. That crowd will be pumped in opening drive and I’d rather it us be on defense.
I'm calling this now...
Neither team is coming back down from more than 14…
We actually have teams that don’t give up…
A fast start might be the difference since we’re both clearly 2nd half teams…
Alex
Meets Suh
Alex crumples and pouts
Suh smiles
All day
"I like to win all the time, so all the time I play with myself."
Alex
Completes pass
Vernon Davis catches
Vernon breaks a linebacker’s ankle
Scores touchdown
Suh’s smile turns into frown
Alex gets back up and laughs in his face
Currently satiating my hunger for Kings basketball with a renewed focus of the NINERS
Suh smiles? Never seen it.
Anyway… don’t think Alex isn’t used to getting hit a bit…or shy’s away from contact… dude was laying out linebackers as the lead blocker a few weeks ago. Say what you will about the past 6-7 years of his playing but don’t EVER question his toughness… he’s a scrapper. If you think he fears Suh, you’re sadly mistaken.
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Not to mention
Getting hit by Suh probably still wouldn’t be as bad as the time that Rocky Bernard almost tore off his arm
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The guy is numb to it...
It’s one of the reasons his game has elevated so much. He is moving around the pocket without reservation.
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dude was laying out linebackers as the lead blocker
do you mean on that reverse? he lowered his shoulder into a defender, got shrugged off by said defender, and frank gore skillfully avoided a tackle that he never should have had to if your lead-blocking QB was anywhere near as tough as you’re painting him to be.
please don’t say he was laying out linebackers, it’s just not true.
You're right.
He was laying out defensive linemen.
Clayton Kershaw, Giant Killer | KeMVP
"By now if u don't believe the Niners are for real ur probably not that good at what u do..." - Donte Whitner
by mikeinsp on Oct 15, 2011 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Now Stafford is no way Vick but... Stafford is a better passer than vick
look at what Vick did to the 9ers D ,,,,M. Vick 30/46 416 9.0 2tds 1 int. if Stafford puts these numbers up we win
oh and Desean Jackson
put up 6 for 171 yds. Maclin 7 for 74 and Avant 6 69 yds. Man i see our WR having a field day out there. Titus gonna have the best game of his young career on Sunday. CJ continues his TD rein of terror and Burlesson Drops a 100yd game
Alex Smith fumbled twice in that game(lost one)
And who do we have that is a sack fumble master? Avril. Avrill will crush Alex and cause the sack fumble
But only 1 this year...
And there have been some opportunities let me tell you… And Burleson is the least of your guys to worry about… #2 receivers are usually quiet, TE and #3 do a little better…
Titus Young will be the first player I start against the niners in fantasy… If anyone busts out for a big game, it’ll be him…
I would argue that Pettigrew will probably get the most action out of all the non-Calvin Johnson targets.
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We do pretty well against tight ends...
We’ll see…
Besides, Vernon Davis is my starting TE… Not replacing him…
Avril is gonna over pursue the crap outta the play like he did on Cutler about 6-10 times on MNF
Guy flies in with no discipline.
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He’s wreckless and doesn’t play like a vet.
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Lions scheme pushes the tempo
and is very aggressive up field. They’re may be missed sacks too, but they’re all going like that so the pressure is fast. Having watched all the games of both teams, and Iupati injured if it resorts to 49ers pasing, alex will have to make plays on the run.
I would think with that style , Niners have a chance to get run game going, but again if Iupati is injured, I think that’s a big hit.
by BillySimsMadeMeDo on Oct 15, 2011 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Desean Jackson >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Titus Young
Kyle Williams >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Titus Young
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Titus Young >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Titus Young
Currently satiating my hunger for Kings basketball with a renewed focus of the NINERS
Titus Young = Titus Young
If my math is correct…
You may want to doublecheck your work
I think you dropped a decimal somewhere in that equation
Currently satiating my hunger for Kings basketball with a renewed focus on the NINERS
hahaha oh k cris carter...
Matthew Stafford, Quarterback: a man barely alive, Gentlemen we can rebuild him, We have the technology, We have the capability to make the worlds first bionic QB, Matthew Stafford will be that man, Better than he was before
Better, Stronger, Faster
They said we were a one trick pony, talkin bout CALVIN. Well thats one hell of a TRICK!!!! - Nate B.
And yet, the Eagles still lost.
If you want Stafford to throw for 400+ yards and go home with the ‘L’, I’m totally coll with that.
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by Drew Kerr on Oct 15, 2011 5:07 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
that loss was due to their inept LBing corp
are LBers are way above the Eagles
Stafford isn't going to run for 5 first downs though...
Major difference in the 1st half was Vick running… Johnson won’t beat us often enough for you to win on that alone… You’ll need Young and Burleson to step up…
That is quite true
Stafford isn’t really a threat to run like Vick was, but with the way Staff can throw the ball around, short, medium, and long range, that may come into play especially later in the game if the Lions torch the secondary with some long passes
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Yep...
A major point in this game will be to disrupt Stafford’s rhythm… That’s when he overthrows guys and tries to force the ball…
For sure
if Staff gets flustered and misses some long passes, it could be a long day. Hopefully he can shake off the jitters early
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I hope we're in his face all game...
If we give him time, Johnson will eventually get open… Or at least, close enough to win the ball…
Our O-Line is decent, but nothing to write home about
If they provide Staff the time he needs, It could spell doom for the 49ers. How good would you say your LBs are with coverage?
Fan of the Tigers ~ Red Wings ~ Lions - No Better Town to be a sports fan of!
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Probably the best in the league...
I trust Patrick Willis 1 on 1 against any RB or TE in the league…
Bowman has been amazing, and when our OLB’s are in coverage it’s usually zone, and they haven’t been beaten yet…
I may be a victim of loving my team, but our LB corps can pretty much do it all…
Will definitely agree with you regarding Willis
I don’t know too much about the other LBs you have, so I can’t really say anything regarding them
Fan of the Tigers ~ Red Wings ~ Lions - No Better Town to be a sports fan of!
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The reason I will give you for my confidence...
Is that we give up very few YAC over the middle and out in the flat… They don’t miss tackles much(our MLB’s almost never), and they generally stop the play right after the reception…
Our zone defense depends on these guys stopping the play right away, and they do…
And they’re yet to be beaten in man this season…
I'd be lying if I said Pettigrew
didnt concern me though…
Props on the win!
Good game! I hope we meet in the playoffs!
I dont know? if its there im sure he will take it
Hes not afraid to run. when ever he does I cringe. LOL. This is gonna be a good game and can’t wait to see who comes out on top! Linehan better open up his bag of tricks for this game to catch your stellar D off gaurd
Nice job Sims
but said before and will again. The stats don’t play on the field,our Lions have been finding a way to win this year. Stafford has had for him 2 kinda off games, what if he’s really on for this one? Have the 49’s faced a Dline like ours and how will they handle it?Saw this as a tough matchup from the go and even more so now the season has progressed but if we play our game, the one we’re capable of we win..we let them take us out of that game plan we struggle. No matter what I’m proud of our team and the way they play.
Maybe the Tampa game sets the niners up for a let down also as they had everything go right for them. Watched it today and TB wasn’t tackling at all,that won’t fly with our D.
We take it in a close one..3 point game
BOOM!~another Motown Touchdown-courtesy of Matthew Stafford
I don't believe in Alex Smith
I just don’t. I guess we will have to lose for me to believe it. I see Detroit taking an early lead and the game going downhill for Alex from there due to the pressure from our D line and the fact that he is bound to show his true colors at some point LOL.
Lions 24- 17
"My Mama once told me don't argue with fools, cause people from a distance can't tell who is who" - Jay Z
At least you put up a very resonable score...
We lose by 1 TD to a damn good team and I can accept it…
Yeah, I think it's pretty crazy for any fan on either side to think it's going to be some kind of 20 point blowout.
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yup go up by 20 in 1st half
no more Gore(well no handing off) make Alex beat us. thats the plan Gunny said so
Confident that Detroit gets the W.
49ers are a fine squad with a great story this season- and awesome team history. Fantastic franchise. Cool fan base. A week ago I wanted the Lions to win VS CHI and take the W six days later against ’Frisco.. now I crave and expect a Win. The Niners Nation is coming in here entirely too sure of their team for a road game. I think you guys are in for a loss. See you Sunday.
That goddamn Okra and beans got you Oprah in jeans. Seems to me a little lean cuisine, wouldn't hurt much- Agh don't touch! -Obie Trice
Funny... I read this and thought the same exact thing about Lions fans over the duration of this week.
Yep. See ya Sunday.
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Funny… I read this and thought the same exact thing about Lions fans over the duration of this week.
Yep. See ya Sunday.
I never threw out any wacky predictions about routs or blowouts. I expect it to be close. The denial of Detroit’s momentum is thick, and a bit unrealistic. That’s part of why I expect them to move up to 6-0.
That goddamn Okra and beans got you Oprah in jeans. Seems to me a little lean cuisine, wouldn't hurt much- Agh don't touch! -Obie Trice
the short week with huge emotions
doomed Tampa Bay last week… though they were the road team.
Lions need to be prepared for a tough physical game
by BillySimsMadeMeDo on Oct 15, 2011 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Lions 27-10
Niner fans… this is for you LINKY
Yooperlionfan is officially "the man"
the Lions D-Line: the Four Horsemen of the A-sack-alypse
Jim Schwartz: Erasing the stink of Millen, one fist pump at a time.
P.C.P: It is not just for recreation anymore.
NO FRIGGIN' WAY THE LIONS LOSE!!!
I’m mad now! I had been saying 27-13 Lions, but under further review, Lions 41-13… NO WAIT… I’ll 2nd JCruise’s motion… DET 27 ~ sf 10; it will just feel like 41-13.
The coolest Lion nickname ever belongs to Dick "NIGHT TRAIN" Lane.
by Gee Garold Lembach on Oct 14, 2011 10:50 PM EDT reply actions
LOUD NOISES
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Keep drinking that cherry Kool-Aid...
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It's honolulu blue Kool-aid.
Yes, it’s a color flavor. Like purple drank.
"You've got to respect your opponent, no matter who it is. You respect him best by going out there and beating him up." - Calvin Johnson
by Mavyrk on Oct 15, 2011 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You guys are clever funny...
Much better than TB… Those guys were practically humorless…
Tampa?
There’s two things in Tampa: Burns Steakhouse and Mons Venus. And if you can’t guess what the second one is, we’re taking your man card!
Tough Game indeed.
Your DC (Vic Fangio) is from the same school as Dom Capers and they do run similar schemes. The end result last year was a 7-3 win with a back up QB. Rogers was also concussed in that game but they did go on to win the SB.
This game should be close because these are 2 good teams. If both teams play well from the get go, the game should be a nail biter and a possible preview of a rematch in the playoffs.
Whatever is said about Alex Smith, I’m happy he is finally successful and winning big ball games for you guys. This is the NFL and I don’t believe you beat a bunch of nobodies. They say the same about us. On the field, at the line of scrimmage, both teams beat good opponents in the trenches!
All I really want is for both teams to play the caliber of football they are capable of. I want to beat or get beat by a team that is clicking on all cylinders.
It is a game of mistakes and the team that makes the fewest should win. There was a game the Giants lost to the Patriots in 2007 but they played great. That loss triggered a turnaround and carried them to the SB. They got their revenge when it really mattered the most.
Let’s have us some fun, may the best team win and I hope it’s one of the best game of the year for both teams!
That should quiet many critics who seem to discount our records stating we both played poor teams. We beat good NFL teams.
Good Analysis
Enjoyed this article but I can’t agree with you on giving the advantage to Alex Smith and the Niners pass offense against our pass defense. We are talking about Alex Smith here and history tells us that his adequate start will soon come to an end. Also considering how our defensive front can get to the QB I see Smith getting rattled and making bad decisions. I agree our pass defense may be below average, but considering our front four, the opponent, and a home game I give the advantage to the Lions pass defense.
What I think will happen for this game is this
The 49ers have one of the best run Ds in the game today, no questions about it, so us getting a mix of Run and Pass is going to be crucial. If Best can even get 60 yards on 15 carries, and catch a couple of passes, I would feel that is a good day for him. The 49ers have a decent secondary, but their defensive strength is definitely in their front 7. Aldon Smith frankly scares me from what I’ve seen so far, and if he gets more playtime, he could seriously be an X-factor in their defense. That being said, I could see Stafford throwing for 350 Yards and 3 TDs with an INT, Megatron for 85 yards and a TD, and Pettigrew getting in the action as well. Alex Smith has had one heck of a season (7 TDs/1 INT) which is probably the best start he’s had for his career, and Frank Gore and Hunter in their backfield are a potent 1-2 punch in their run game. The receiving corp doesn’t nearly scare me as much now with Morgan out, and Vernon Davis being the main threat (I’m not discouting WIlliams or Crabtree at all). The Lions Defensive weakness is definitely the short passes and runs to the outside, and if they get that going, I could see it being a very long day for the Lions for sure. I could easily see Alex Smith getting 200 yards and 2 TDs, possibly an INT or 2, but I could see the D-Line get some serious pressure on Smith and cause some turnovers/sacks for sure. I can see Gore easily getting over 100 yards against the Lions D. Special Teams may indeed end up being the difference. Hanson as of late has contained decent runback threats (Hester last week was definitely a HUGE plus) and his kicking has been clutch all year (what else can you expect from a 20-year vet!). Donahues been a decent punter, and Logan (when he’s had chances) has been decent in the return game. What Ginn did in week 1 against Seattle was impressive to say the least. Definitely was the reason why they won Week 1, but the Lions lately have done better in return coverage. Akers has been a great pickup for San Fran, and Andy Lee is one of the best punters in the league no questions asked. Overall though, I think both teams overall play pretty much equally the same (Lions have the Advantage on Passing/D-Line) (49ers Running/LBs) and play pretty equally on STs. I could very easily see this game going to the 49ers, but with the 49ers playing their 3rd 1pm game on the East Coast, I think it will finally catch up to them. I see this game very easily being close…
Predicting the Lions winning 27-21, probably be a late game FG or TD to win it
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Kid Rock
In the locker room is the sign of the apocalypse.
We are more talented and athletic, and Schwartz will out-coach Harbaugh
Lions win by 11 points.
by DetroitLionKing on Oct 16, 2011 12:57 AM EDT reply actions
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