On Paper: Detroit Lions Vs. Green Bay Packers
by simscity on Nov 23, 2011 5:41 PM EST
in On Paper
Email
PrintHere we are again. Another boring Thanksgiving Day. The Lions are playing for nothing more than the opportunity to not embarrass themselves on a national stage. Get ready to shove stuffing down your throats to kill the pain of another Lions loss ... what? What's that you say, little voice in my head? The Lions are 7-3 and in the midst of a heated playoff race? The Packers are coming into this game undefeated, but on a one-game losing streak at Ford Field? Why, that sounds like a somewhat entertaining matchup. Yes, yes it does, and I think everyone in Detroit agrees.
Ford Field will be rocking on Thursday as the Lions face their toughest opponent of the year. Vegas isn't giving Detroit much of a chance, making them seven-point underdogs. However, the word of the almighty chart has yet to be heard.
Lions Pass Offense (8th) vs. Packers Pass Defense (31st)
What a rebound it was for Matthew Stafford. Starting with the second half of the Bears game, Stafford had three of the worst quarters of his career. However, in the last three quarters of the Panthers game, Stafford played some of his best football. He spread the ball around on his way to a 335-yard, five-touchdown performance. This chart is looking mighty green, and the offense is starting to get a little more consistent.
... and this looks like a beautiful matchup for the Lions. The Packers have only held one opponent below their passing yard average and have given up the second most passing yards in the league! The Lions are going to crush the Packers defense!
Eh ... not so fast, my feline friend. The Packers have held half of their opponents below their passer rating average. In fact, as a passing defense they actually rank 11th in terms of passer rating allowed. On top of that, their 19 interceptions are the most in the league by four, and their 24 sacks put them at 15th in the league. In all, the Packers pass defense is much better than people are giving them credit. Still, I would consider them only average, or perhaps slightly above.
The key to this matchup will be the Lions taking what the Packers give them and Stafford not getting too greedy and forcing passes. I'd love to see a big day from Titus Young. His ability to run slants could be invaluable on third down against an aggressive Packers defense. If Stafford decides to spread the ball around, like he did in the second half last week, the Lions should have success. Lions +1.5.
Lions Run Offense (22nd) vs. Packers Run Defense (12th)
Well that was a bit unexpected. Kevin Smith's 140 yards against the Panthers was perhaps the most impressive, unexpected performance by a Lion this season. It's hard to know if this kind of success will continue, but if I had to venture a guess, I'd say no. As evidenced by the chart, the Lions have actually been playing better on the ground as of late, but the struggles of the offensive line continue. I like Smith and what he showed against Carolina, but if the offensive line can't keep it up, it won't matter who is in the backfield.
The Packers run defense seems pretty solid. Only three opponents have surpassed their yards average, while six have met or exceeded their yards per carry average. The Packers are 25th in yards per carry allowed (4.7). However, they are not prone to giving up the long play. They have allowed only six rushes of over 20 yards (20th most).
The Lions should have an average day on the ground, which is right around 100 yards total. That's enough to keep the Packers somewhat honest on defense, but not enough to change the game. Draw.
Packers Pass Offense (3rd) vs. Lions Pass Defense (5th)
The Packers pass offense may rank third in the league by yardage, but there's no doubt in my mind that it is the best in the NFL. Their team passer rating is first in the league by 25 points (127.4 to New England's 102.5). They've thrown for six more touchdowns than anyone else. They've thrown only five interceptions (second fewest). They're first in yards per attempt (9.7) and first in completion percentage (72.3). This is the best passing game the Lions will face in a decade ... well, at least until they play the Packers again.
But the Lions have a pretty good weapon on defense. They've only allowed three quarterbacks to reach their passer rating average, while holding the past five opponents below a 70 rating.
Aaron Rodgers has yet to have a passer rating below 100, and the Lions have yet to cede a 100 passer rating. Something will give in this matchup, and unfortunately, I think it will be the Lions defense that falters. I really think the Packers passing attack is one of the best in history. Packers +2.
Packers Run Offense (21st) vs. Lions Run Defense (27th)
The Packers running attack continues to be pedestrian. It's not great, but it doesn't have to be. Their 3.9 a carry ranks them at 24th in the NFL, they only have six rushes of 20 or more (T-16th) and only one of 40 or longer (T-13th). Their running attack is basically enough to get by, but nothing to fear.
Which is music to Lions' ears. The Lions struggles to stop the run continue. As I noted last week, it's not as bad as it looks, but it isn't good either. The Lions continue to give up big plays that hurt them. But, as noted, the Packers don't pose a deep threat on the ground, therefore this matchup is another draw.
Overall
So the Packers come out with a tiny +0.5 advantage, predicting a much closer game than Vegas is. However, there are some factors that will affect this game that I don't cover in this post -- specifically, home-field advantage. The Thanksgiving game has been sold out for a while now, and the crowd at Ford Field should be bumping. It is imperative for the Lions to come out strong early to keep the crowd in the game and keep Aaron Rodgers from hearing the play calls. Last week, the Lions faltered in the first quarter and took the crowd out of the game. They'll need every advantage this week to beat the undefeated Packers, so a slow start would be devastating. However, I think Stafford will continue his success that he showed in the second half of the Panthers game and the Lions will pull off the upset. I don't normally go against my own numbers, but it's Thanksgiving and a special one at that. Lions 38, Packers 35.
43 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
It's remarkable
How well the Lions and Packers strengths and weaknesses align: our pass rush vs a great Packer passing offense; our strong passing vs a decent secondary; weak running games on both sides…. I’m sure all of the pundits are predicting a bloodbath in favor of the Cheese, but I’m with you, sims. Lions tend to play well on Turkey Day (unless it’s vs the Schwartz’s Titans defense – man was that gross). I think the boys in Honolulu blue give Rodgers and company a run for the money! We usually battle each other in low scoring affairs so I’m saying Lions 23 Pack 20! Gooooooooooooo LIIIIOOOOOOONNNSSSSSS!!!
by LionGuy016 on Nov 23, 2011 6:24 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Its like Mayhew
is trying to build the Lions to stop the Packers. If that’s true, he couldn’t have chosen a better team to aim at. The Pack is what the Pats were 4 years ago and what the Saints were 2 years ago.
Starks
Is the biggest difference in the game (if he plays) GB’s Run offense isn’t dynamic, but unlike DET’s, it’s functional. I don’t buy the yardage total for you guys last Sunday. K. Smith won’t last.
ARod doesn’t throw picks (2 on him all year). GB’s D gives up yards, but not any more than average points per game. And they are really good at intercepting the ball. Stafford DOES throw picks.
Again, it comes down to GB’s interior OL. If they give AR more than 2 seconds a pass, GB wins going away. If not, it’s going to be close. GB is the stronger, more well rounded team.
Excuse me
I just realized this post wasn’t clear. Starks will be the 2nd biggest difference if he plays. Grant is still capable.
The biggest difference will be whether ARod will have time to throw. If he does, GB wins. Period, and it shouldn’t be all that close. If he doesn’t, then DET could very well win.
Would you argue that "Tom Brady DOES throw picks?"
Both he and Stafford have the same number of picks this year, 10.
Not only that, prior to his broken finger and the windy game at Chicago, Stafford only had 4. Wind won’t be a factor tomorrow, and he was back to his old self for the last 3 quarters vs Carolina.
Now, if he does throw 2 or more picks tomorrow, it will be very difficult for the Lions to win. But don’t bet on him throwing the game away.
Right BUT
There is a significant gap between ARod and every other NFL QB this season. AR has simply been a machine. I don’t need to tell you something you already know, but it bears repeating.
Stafford is a good QB. BUT he is more susceptible to bad throws than ARod. Period. Throw in the fact that GB’s Secondary leads the league in INT’s this year (and over the past 3 yrs) and you’ve got a scary combination for any fan of an opposing team to GB.
GB wins the QB rating battle every game as a result of AR and the Defense’s ballhawking. Period.
Again – if AR has 2 seconds to throw on most downs, GB wins going away.
If not, it’ll be close, and DET very well could win.
"he is more susceptible to bad throws than ARod"
So what? With how Rodgers has been playing, every QB is more likely to make a bad throw.
Still, Stafford has 25 TDs to 10 picks. Eight out of ten games he’s thrown one or none. Those are elite numbers. We have had no running game (until last week) so that’s even with defenses cheating toward the pass. In fact, aside from Rodgers, he is among the least likely to be picked.
Just bc Stafford doesn’t have Rodgers’ numbers, doesn’t mean he is going to throw a bunch of picks. His track record says that he will take care of the ball like usual.
Right but
Again, GB’s D leads the league in INT’s again this year. I’ve watched DET almost every game (yes, that is an admission that your team is MUCH improved, so kudos!), and Stafford has thrown questionable balls a good number of times. Against GB, those are picks more often than not.
I’m just saying, if there are going to be turnovers at all, it’ll probably be on your side. And that only makes GB harder to beat.
Here's the thing.
Stafford has shown he can be elite. He hasn’t been perfect every game like Rodgers, but he has been as good as anyone else in the league. Take Brees for example. You guys got no picks on him week one and he has similar stats to Staff (23 TD/11 INT). Our defense is the best you will have faced this year so you can’t automatically assume you’re going to win the turnover battle.
The bottom line is that the Lions have as much talent as the Packers. When they are at their best it is hard to imagine how they could lose. The Lions’ biggest problem is that they are not nearly as consistent on offense as the Packers.
So, who wins on Thanksgiving? It depends on which Lions offensive unit shows up. Is it the unit that gave up 6 turnovers to the Bears? Or is it the unit that put 49 points on the Panthers in 3 quarters? If it’s the 2nd, the Packers lose simply because the Lions’ D will dominate at home.
My friend
How on Earth is the Lions offense putting up 49 in 3 Qtrs related to the Lions Defense dominating at home?
That doesn’t make sense. And if you typed your last paragraph on a national comment board. The last time GB’s offense was shut down was in DET last Nov, and most everyone would agree that was lack of execution on GB’s part as much as DET’s good defensive play.
It was a fluke. It hasn’t happened since then and you are deluding yourself if you think it ‘s going to happen again. If GB loses, it’ll be a high scoring game.
Need an edit button!
Dangit 2nd paragraph, 2nd sentence should read:
“And if you typed that last paragraph on a national football comment board you’d be laughed out of the room.”
Sorry
GO PACK GO!
They're related in the sense they're part of the recipe for a W.
The D the Packers face today is the toughest they’ve faced this year. That’s a fact. So expect your worst game offensively this year. Yes, I am aware that’s still “really good.”
My biggest concern is which Lions offense shows up. If the explosive one shows, the Packers will lose because the D and the home crowd have enough juice to make them uncomfortable.
We’ll see whose laughing this afternoon. :D
Yes
We will. And, like I said earlier. It might be you in a high scoring game.
The good news for GB fans is that this game doesn’t really matter for us. We’ll win the division and probably home field anyway. And you are not coming into GB and winning.
Don’t get me wrong, I think GB wins. But it’ll be close.
Great job as usual Sims
What’s ironic is that on the Acme Packaging site, they have a post about predicting the Thanksgiving game and I put the exact same score 38-35 but it was in overtime. I really do believe that the emotions, energy, and the Ford Field crowd will be the differences of us winning and losing. The Packers and Lions aren’t much different in terms of talent, just experience. I can really see the Lions upsetting them and taking back the tradition of winning on Thanksgiving Day.
Stafford won’t outplay Rodgers in this game, but he will play one of his best games ever and will throw 2 touchdowns in the 4th qtr to tie it up and send it into ot where Hanson kicks the game winner. I’m so excited and confident that we will win. Maybe even more confident than I should be, but I know how much this game means to the team, the city, and to the fans like myself. We will be 8-3 and ready to play the Saints on primetime televsion Sunday night!
From 0-16 to the Superbowl baby!
by DLions4Eva on Nov 23, 2011 9:06 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Wrong
Packers have more talent and depth at every position on the field except D Line, and Megatron.
If you could combine GB and DET’s starting 22 it would look like this:
QB – ARod
RB – Starks
FB – Kuhn
OL – Clifton, Lang, Wells, Sitton, Bulaga
WR – C. Johnson, Jennings, Nelson
TE – Finley
DL – Suh, Raji, Pickett or Avril (up for debate)
LB – CM3, Bishop, Tulloch or Hawk (up for debate)
CB – Tramon, Wood, Shields
S – Burnett, Collins (Delmas in Collins absence on IR)
Care to retract that “Detroit has as much talent as GB” statement now?
GB is the best team the NFL has seen since the 07 Pats. It remains to be seen if GB will choke the Super Bowl away like they did. At this point, anyone in their right mind would have to put GB as the overwhelming favorite to win it all.
I have to argue a few points.
I personally don’t think Starks is that good. He gets the nod on your list because the Lions don’t have that big of threat running. FB goes to GB because Detroit doesn’t use a full back (we have TE’s that can block catch and play FB, unlike GB). We don’t have a dominate TE because we have two really great TE’s…so FInely’s numbers will look better because he is the only real TE option the pack have (hey look, a hole in your depth point).
I have to give the nod to KVB over Pickett. It’s a motor thing and a leadership thing. LB’s….CM is top of list on most teams, I think Tolluch beats Hawk hands down (Heck, Carp is better then what Hawk’s been showing) and as for Bishop, that one is up for debate. Also, you have to take into account the difference schemes both teams run with their front 7…so really it’s almost an apples to oranges thing.
The back 4 of Detroit should get a little more respect then what you’re showing them. Shields out for Eric Wright and Collins out for Delmas regardless of injury.
Another thing, you may win the more talent issue, but Detroit’s depth is better.
LITTLE MAN IN BACKFIELD! LITTLE MAN IN BACKFIELD! GO STEFAN LOGAN!
DUDE, no way.
Vandenbosch over Pickett for sure! That’s a no-brainer.
I would take Fairley over Raji because of Fairley’s upside. Smith over Starks for the same reason.
I’d also take Pettigrew as an extra tight end over your fullback.
Other than Woodson, I don’t like your secondary, and ours has been playing very well so I’d swap them out too.
Both teams are filled with talent, but based on the players you’ve chosen, it shows that you are definitely underestimating our defense.
Right
I understand the difference between the 3-4 and the 4-3. That’s why I put 8 dudes in the front 7. They also serve different functions (Raji’s main job is to free up LB’s for example – so his sack numbers won’t be as high as Suh’s)
Any objective scout, GM, or educated media member would say the Packers have the best depth of the NFL. And it’s not close. In fact, they may just have the best depth from 1-53 since the Dallas Cowboys of the 90’s. Thompson is that good at his job.
Starks is a very good RB. He could become more at some point. In GB though, he’ll never get the chance to be a workhorse.
Kuhn is one of the best Fullbacks in the game. He’s a short yardage automatic too. An all around useful tool for McCarthy to have. Darn good player.
GB has 5 (yes FIVE) TE’s. Finley is an All-Pro. Quarless and Crabtree are solid young players who can run, but don’t often get to, because quite simply, there are too many talented skill players on GB’s offense to allow them much of a chance. You have two very good TE’s. I’d say GB wins that battle.
Delmas is not better than Collins. I don’t know what you are smoking that could make you think that, but I want some. :)
KVB over Pick is a matter of debate or opinion, (no, it’s not a no brainer), so I can’t argue with you there. I’m not going to argue with you over Hawk either, because he’s not played all that well.
Bishop might make the probowl this year. And he deserves it. He’s been a tackling machine. And his pass rush is really good too. He has a knack for big plays in big situations. I don’t see any LB’s on your team that fit that bill….
Shields/Wright.. maybe. I’ll take Sam’s speed and upside though.
Tramon is better than Wood at this point. He is an elite corner. Heck, he’s better than any 1 player on your defense not named Suh.
Fairly over Raji???? HAHAHAHA! Again.. what are you on dude? NO ONE outside of a blue and silver goggled Lions fan would say that. Raji is an elite DL. Fairly MIGHT be. Big difference.
Addendum
This is all a moot point though – because Raji never plays Suh, and ARod never plays Stafford.
Here’s my breakdown of the actual game:
GB O vs Det D – GB
Det O vs GB D – Det
ST – GB
Turnovers/game changing plays – GB
Homefield crowd – DET.
I think it will be a close game. I really do. But I stand by what I said earlier. GB flat out has more playmakers than DET, an no objective person would argue that across the country. If ARod has 2 secs to throw the ball consistently, DET doesn’t have a chance, because GB will put up a 50 spot on them. If DET falls behind, GB’s secondary is going to start sitting on routes, and they WILL pick off some balls. Plus, unlike DET, GB has the ability to run when they want to. They can ice a game – unlike Minny and Dallas, as you found out earlier this year! ;)
However, if DET grabs the lead and harries ARod constantly, I could see DET winning a close one, due to all the factors mentioned above.
DET has a good team. And they’ve had this game circled on their calenders for months. This is just another game to GB, because they know they’re better and they know they’ll win the division.
That’s why I think it is very possible DET wins.
My pick if I had to guess?
GB 45
DET 35
If you were to take a poll on the country about who has more playmakers...
I would put money that people outside of MI and WI would say that GB has more on offense and DET has more on defense.
I’m not going to address this any more other than to say that I’m probably biased toward Delmas because he is from my Alma Mater (same as Jennings who I am also a big fan of).
Also:
Lions by 4, both scores in the 30s, best guess…
DET 34
GB 31
You
Would lose that poll. No doubt at all my friend.
DET’s D is playing better consistently that GB’s, that is true. GB’s D is playing more explosively. Bottom line, other than Suh, GB’s D has much more name recognition.
I think our D
is going to run right over their offense. Look what happened last year. Our line is better than ever with Fairley added as a back up, an we all know there is no comparison at any other position to last year. Packers 10-1 tomorrow.
You are
Delusional my friend.
You should really get your Lions fever checked out. I think it might be terminal. It certainly serious..
;)
He's not too far off
To be honest, GB hasn’t really faced a devastating front line. The rotating depth with our front four will be problematic for Rodgers. Add in the fact that Ford Field will be the loudest stadium in Week 12, and you’ve got a Packers team that HAS to be on it right now. If they HAD to win a game, this would be it. As good as the team is right now, I don’t see them finishing 16-0. I’m sorry, I just don’t see it. I saw it with the SD game. There’s no way you can give up 35 point in the NFL and win. No way. You could say the same about DET last week, but like many said, it was yet another comeback the Lions were used to making.
That is
Double sided logic. How can you call GB’s D so bad and use the same measuring sticks to praise the Lions.
All the Packer fans are saying the same thing – if GB’s interior OL plays DET’s DT’s to a stalemate or even a slight loss, GB wins.
They have 2 players who will probably make the probowl in Sitton and Wells on the interior OL. They’ve mostly played very well.
Last November in DET was a fluke – GB laid a HUGE turd that day as a team. Yes, DET played well too, but I’m pretty sure the nation would tend to agree more with me than you guys on this one…
I don’t see them finishing 16-0 either. And if they’re going to lose, it’ll be this game. But they’re still the favorites for a reason: GB is a better team than DET is.
And there is no way in H.E.L.L. that you hold AR and that offense under 25. Probably not under 35. No Defense could. Not the 70’s Steelers. And certainly not the 2011 Lions.
All about red zone eff.
Both teams will drive up and down the field but once the field shrinks and d tightens up inside the 20 who will bend and who will break? Our d-line needs to get to Rodgers early and often and hopefully shake his confidence or force him into errant throws
by dalrymple87 on Nov 23, 2011 9:52 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I feel like I got a preview of 2/3 of the game.
The Packers have a .5 advantage for the game but what about special teams? If Cobb can give the Packers field position then that is a +1. As a Packer fan, I am hoping that MS starts slow. The Packers don’t turn the ball over much and a quick start will take the fans out of the game quick. After getting a lead, the Packers shouldn’t give it up.
"Illusion, Michael. A trick is something a whore does for money."
You're right...
Though I view ST as more like 1/5 of the game, but ours is awful. I hope we just kick touchbacks all game.
:D
I used to have a special teams category in these previews
But I took it off because it was too unpredictable and typically negligent in determining the final outcome of the game. If there was an advantage, it would be to Green Bay, but at most it would be +0.5
by simscity on Nov 24, 2011 12:41 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Instead of removing it...
You should just give us a minor negative. I don’t think anyone would argue with the fact that our STs have been consistently awful. Even Schwartz admits it.
Thats cool man.
I think this break down is a pretty cool way to show who you think has the advantage. Just another reason why SBNation is so cool. Thanks for putting the work in to show us.
"Illusion, Michael. A trick is something a whore does for money."
Agreed
It is a good breakdown. Just not great conclusions. ;)
thanks?
To be 100% honest, I probably let the homer in me come out a little bit, something I really try not to do. But I make no apologies. It’s Thanksgiving week, this would be a huge win for Detroit. I had to pick the Lions.
As for special teams, I might think about adding that back to the column. I want to make this thing as accurate as possible and with the most predictive power. I’ve been pretty accurate this season, but there’s always room for improvement.
Lions 38 - them 35
"I like to win all the time, so all the time I play with myself."
I just want to see Rodgers smug face driven into the turf.
At least 5 or 6 times in this game. : )
+100000000000000
And KVB doing the celebration move stolen from him after he plants that face into the ground!
I thought being lazy was a bad thing, So I gave up thinking.
by Wayne Fontes on Nov 24, 2011 10:54 AM EST up reply actions
Stay classy
Detroit. I know you are worried about making the playoffs, but rooting for Arod (or any player for that matter) to get hurt is despicable.
It would really help GB out if Megatron blew an ACL, but I (nor my FF team) wants to see that happen.
Hey Dbag
I didn’t say I wanted him to get hurt. I just want him to feel the pain from our defense and make some mistakes so that we win.
Typical Bears fan…doesn’t have any reading comprehension.
I think only souless men would want to see that
especially this year for Rogers…I want to beat the best. I sure as hell don’t want Rogers to go down and have to hear about how the outcome was void forever!
The boys are back in town!
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Pride Of Detroit
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Shutdown Corner - NFL - Yahoo! Sports
- BREAKING: Tim Tebow did not become a great quarterback today
- Jerry Jones says Cowboys championship window is closing; Tony Romo disagrees
- Lawrence Taylor was told his Super Bowl ring was bought by Charlie Sheen
- Chad Ochocinco gets robbed, mourns loss of Starbucks gold card
- Robert Griffin III will be first NFL player with Roman numerals on his jersey
