Fun With Numbers; a look at gametime winning probability

by CLF on Dec 21, 2011 3:18 PM EST

While researching rebuttal information from all the threads on "how" or "why" or even what coaching decisions have 'allowed' the Lions to comeback from 13pts down, 4 times this year, I came across aWP (win probability) calculator.

... So lets have some fun with numbers, shall we?

Lets take the Oakland game.... Some say Hughy's decision NOT to attempt a 2pt conversion was the biggest coaching mistake of the game. hmmm... let's have fun with some numbers to see how much that decision affected Detroit's WP.

To keep consistency, and according to this chart... Detroit got the ball 1st & 10 at Detroit's 29yd line with 7:40(possession after Stafford's fumble TD).

At that time and Oakland with a 13pt lead, Detroit's WP was .05... or 5% (chance to win)

If Jackson had called for the 2pt conversion and was successfull, a 14pt lead changes Det WP to .03 or 3%

A failed 2pt conversion, would end up being a 12pt lead, with Det WP of .06 or 6%

The Numbers, per the scenario, show that the lack of a 2pt attempt really had no major affect on the probability of Detroit winning.

ON THE OTHER HAND... again using this chart ; there is a noticeable change in Detroit's WP at 3:12 of the 4th quarter(Det-21, OAK-27). Michael Bush ran for a 2yd gain on 2nd down, leaving 3rd and 3 on the Detroit's 48. At that time Detroit's WP was flatlining at 11%. The Coaching decision to pass, and the resulting incomplete pass, gave Detroit a 25% WP. +14%! What if they had ran the ball? who knows!? But it seems that play decision by Oakland had the largest 4th quarter affect on Detroit's WP. (again, that's decision by Oak)

In Summary, this website has some pretty sweet stats and charts. Also, it enable's us fans to research just how important that coach's decision was per the game, per the situation.

Oh, and I don't claim, nor ever will claim to be a writer of any kind, so if the thread seems choppy, hard to read, and scatterbrained... oh well. :) My goal was to bring this website/tool to light to fellow POD'ers as to improve the knowledge of the game and hopefully reducing some of the emotional arguments.

PS- See Joshsun, not every "MISTAKE" is as big as you make it. (all in fun)

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Pride of Detroit or its writers. FanPosts are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable fans.

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My brain hurts now

THE PHONZ ~ I LOVE THAT GUY
PCP 4 LIFE

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by The Profiler on Dec 21, 2011 3:34 PM EST reply actions

If your not staring at Bree Olson your brain always hurts.

"Detroit doesn't pat itself on the back, it gets the job done."-Barry Sanders

My POD Main Fantasy Football league team got taken to the cleaners in the playoffs. O well, it happens.

by Enforcer on Dec 21, 2011 6:24 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Bwahahahaa!

Eat, Drink and Sleep Football.

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by LionsGal652 on Dec 22, 2011 2:10 PM EST up reply actions

I know I am one of these dinosaurs that don't watch sports like it is the matrix.

so not sure if I buy it. if they go for 2 and get it right at that moment it probably doesn’t effect their chance of winning much, but in the grand scheme it would’ve. You have to factor in things like the OT coin toss and Janikowski’s leg. if the toss went to the Raiders that would’ve been another shot for them to get into his range.

not to mention looking at these stats when they did get that TD they were at a 95% chance to win so of course the 2pt conversion wasn’t going to drastically alter things at that point.

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by nuftjedi on Dec 21, 2011 3:38 PM EST reply actions

This thread is not about this particular game or situation...

Its more to do about…. when you’re watching games and one of the teams just makes (in your opinion) an idiotic call… a "gamechanger’, that you believe affected the outcome.

This ‘calculator’ will help you realize, just how ‘right’ you are.

http://twitter.com/#!/rumbulls

by CLF on Dec 21, 2011 3:45 PM EST up reply actions

I tried clicking the links for their “methodology” before posting, but none of them were working so I didn’t care that much to keep trying/waiting.

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by nuftjedi on Dec 21, 2011 4:01 PM EST up reply actions

Shut off your popup blocker...

I have the links popping.

http://twitter.com/#!/rumbulls

by CLF on Dec 21, 2011 4:12 PM EST up reply actions

not it

just getting page not found, tried 3 different browsers.

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by nuftjedi on Dec 21, 2011 4:27 PM EST up reply actions

comes right up for me...

http://live.advancednflstats.com/weekly.php?gameid2=55382&week=15

Here you go… the menu options are pretty easy to understand and read.

http://twitter.com/#!/rumbulls

by CLF on Dec 21, 2011 4:39 PM EST up reply actions

that link was fine

it was basically every link on the page. they work now.

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by nuftjedi on Dec 21, 2011 10:14 PM EST up reply actions

funny, we had a 3% chance in the cowboys game and a 5% chance in the vikings game..

6% chance against CAR…pretty rediclious stuff…..Megatron is the modern day Barry.

The 9er game had us winning but 95% and we lost that so i guess this stuff happens…we almost fumbled away the 2nd vikings game too.

The Disassembly Line....nuff said.

by Veihl789 on Dec 21, 2011 4:49 PM EST reply actions

These "in progress" game predictors are fun for the average fan

They give you an idea of the possible outcomes of game by referencing thousands of games from the past and turn that into a percentage for the average fan to understand.

They are point differential based in relation to time left in the game. They do not take into account anything relevant about either team. For instance, the Detroit and Oakland game.

It ignores that Detroit already came back from more than 13 points down to win 3 times this season.

It ignores that Oakland allowed the other team to score 14 or more points in the 4th quarter 3 times this season before the Detroit game.

Then it says a PAT or a 2 point conversion was only a 2% difference in winning or losing for Oakland. Yet, this chart shows that going for the 2 point conversion in that instance was an easy decision. We all saw what happened when Hue Jackson ignored that chart.

Long and short of it. These predictors have no statistical relevance to the eventual outcome of a game. They just present, in a simplified form, comparable games from the past and put winning or losing in a % format so most people can understand it.

Want to know what is really messed up about these stats. They are most likely taking games from the 08 Lions team and using them as part of their reference database. Does that team remind anyone of today’s team?

p.s. CLF….. Have you ever seen a coach on the sideline with a laptop checking his winning % change in the game? On the other hand, I have seen coaches referencing 2 point conversion charts making sure they make the proper decision at the proper time in the game.

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"You can get a win with undisciplined jack asses, you create a winning team with discipline and poise." by Leonuro
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GROW THE F UP
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"Some people mistake the way I talk for the way I am thinking."
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by joshsun on Dec 21, 2011 7:31 PM EST reply actions

You are blind by your narcissism...lol

Lighten the fuck up, man.

Sheesh!

http://twitter.com/#!/rumbulls

by CLF on Dec 22, 2011 6:12 AM EST up reply actions

"FUN FOR THE AVERAGE FAN"

1. you wouldn’t know “Fun” if it hit you in your smug face…lol

and 2.

Then it says a PAT or a 2 point conversion was only a 2% difference in winning or losing for Oakland. Yet, this chart shows that going for the 2 point conversion in that instance was an easy decision. We all saw what happened when Hue Jackson ignored that chart.

LOL… You just a thick headed piece of shit, who wouldn’t know ‘fun’ if it hit you in your thick narcissistic head….lol

“MY CHART IS BETTER AND PROVES MY POINT, SO ITS RIGHT”

Tear these stats apart all you want…. tell us all that they are “LIKELY” to do this or that…. but for gods sake man…

CHILL OUT… cause us “average” fan… are having fun and your constant debbie downer inkings are a real drag on the fun we’re all having.

But hey, Thanks for ripping up my thread that was meant to share a stat taking website. (even if you can’t take a light hearted dig)

http://twitter.com/#!/rumbulls

by CLF on Dec 22, 2011 6:26 AM EST up reply actions

You are telling me to chill out after calling me a thick headed piece of shit?

Please.

by joshsun on Dec 22, 2011 1:38 PM EST up reply actions

not calling you....

just your actions.

http://twitter.com/#!/rumbulls

by CLF on Dec 22, 2011 1:45 PM EST up reply actions

revisionist history does not work without an edit button.

You just a thick headed piece of shit

by joshsun on Dec 22, 2011 1:47 PM EST up reply actions

should've been a "being" in there...lol

Freudian slip?

http://twitter.com/#!/rumbulls

by CLF on Dec 22, 2011 1:52 PM EST up reply actions

perhaps lol

I do not personally mind.

Our heated discussion has forced me to do more research and look deeper into this than I would have otherwise.

by joshsun on Dec 22, 2011 2:12 PM EST up reply actions

Follow @nuftjedi

by nuftjedi on Dec 22, 2011 2:17 PM EST up reply actions

I didn't know he suffered siezures.

Uggg, I might be suffering them soon too if I watch that too long.

by joshsun on Dec 22, 2011 2:41 PM EST up reply actions

But hey, Thanks for ripping up my thread that was meant to share a stat taking website.

Wait a minute, you posted in my Hue Jackson thread that I should look for your fun with numbers thread and then expected me to not stop in an comment? Really?

by joshsun on Dec 22, 2011 1:39 PM EST up reply actions

Bottom line.

There is nothing subjective about these charts. Coaches carry them on the sideline at all levels of the game from high school to the professional level. They are not subjective. They are valuable tools for success used on all levels.

They do not carry anything even close to your websites stats on the sideline.

So yeah, my point is valid and yours is flawed.

Suck it up and accept that you are wrong. I know it hurts your feeling when someone says the other team helped our team win. God forbid the other team actually makes mistakes and god forbid our team is good enough to take advantage of those mistakes.

by joshsun on Dec 22, 2011 1:47 PM EST up reply actions

LOL...

Suck it up and accept that you are wrong.

Wrong about what? I still don’t know?

lol…

http://twitter.com/#!/rumbulls

by CLF on Dec 22, 2011 1:51 PM EST up reply actions

and I am the thick headed one

by joshsun on Dec 22, 2011 1:53 PM EST up reply actions

oh,

And all I meant to do is… point out that at the time of Huey’s call (MISTAKE).. is the the probability of a team coming back from that deficit was minute. And I thought it was pretty neat that there was a stat website that actually tracked gametime WP.

Combine that probability with your handy dandy chart… that 40% chance of going for 1 against one of the best goal line D’s in the league… and its on the fence for me. Hue went with 1… oh well.

So yeah, you are a thick head. (oops did it again.)

And yeah, I may be an “AVERAGE” fan… what ever the hell that is suppose to mean… but I know enough about football to know that DETROIT’s play was the cause of the outcome, not a stupid little 2pt conversion that was not even tried.

http://twitter.com/#!/rumbulls

by CLF on Dec 22, 2011 2:01 PM EST up reply actions

couple things

1) you are not an average fan. Not even close.
2) Our goal line D is great against the run. Our secondary is beat the hell up.
3) 40% chance on of success is a league wide average of success on 2pt conversions.

but I know enough about football to know that DETROIT’s play was the cause of the outcome

I will just quote myself here….

We took advantage of their mistakes. That is fantastic, we are good enough to do that now. That does not change that the other teams coach did make a mistake that opened the door for our success.

by joshsun on Dec 22, 2011 2:15 PM EST up reply actions

98 yards, a 4th and two..

the team can point to him for the loss, but they had plenty of opportunities to win

by BillySimsMadeMeDo on Dec 22, 2011 1:15 PM EST up reply actions

100% agreed

We took advantage of their mistakes. That is fantastic, we are good enough to do that now. That does not change that the other teams coach did make a mistake that opened the door for our success.

by joshsun on Dec 22, 2011 1:48 PM EST up reply actions

it enable’s us fans to research just how important that coach’s decision was per the game, per the situation.

this line is where I am put off a bit. I’m still not buying it. I read there stuff and get how they come up with it, but like joshun says it ignores a lot of other factors.

like I said I am still a dinosaur I know in that I don’t dive all into advanced stats and metrics and all that, I still go by what I see and have seen and my gut.

stats can be useful, but things nowadays are just on a dangerous trend towards putting all faith in them which isn’t the way to be because why even play the games when you can just look at stats and “know” this is why I joke it’s like some people watch things like it is the matrix and don’t actually see what is going on.

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by nuftjedi on Dec 22, 2011 9:56 AM EST reply actions

what I meant by the quoted line is just that the site can show how important the decision was based on their criteria, but you have to just take that – and all stats – with a grain of salt. things don’t operate in a vacuum so no one set of stats is going to be right all the time.

Follow @nuftjedi

by nuftjedi on Dec 22, 2011 9:57 AM EST up reply actions

I'm sorry you're "PUT OFF"

by another way to look at a game.

There’s no right or wrong way watch and enjoy football…. so whether your a dinosaur or not… what ever floats your boat.

And make no mistake… you don’t have to ‘buy’ anything.

IMHO, ALL STATS are entertaining to me. I enjoy reading different angles and ideas on how games are played and decided.

I will never “know” this sport, but I enjoy learning about it.

http://twitter.com/#!/rumbulls

by CLF on Dec 22, 2011 10:59 AM EST up reply actions

oh don't apologize

I wasn’t trying to get into a pissing contest with you over it or anything like that.

I agree that there is no right or wrong way to watch the game. I just personally don’t like the trend of things going all about just looking at stats and not paying attention to outside factors…. or people getting hung up on one stat or another when to get an accurate picture you really need to look at a broader picture. so it isn’t a problem with stats, just how people use them sometimes.

I do find some stats interesting, but more so in the historical aspects of things. even the type on this site are neat to look at and see they had the Lions with a 3% chance of winning. However, using just their opinion to state the merits of going for 2 or not starts to encroach on that dangerous use of stats because it is in their vacuum and not taking all factors into account.

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by nuftjedi on Dec 22, 2011 11:09 AM EST up reply actions

lol...

I thought the same after some claimed (based on similar stats) that the 2pt conversion was the cause for defeat…lol.. It was fun to find a site that put numbers that backed up the logic of how little that decision played into the outcome.

http://twitter.com/#!/rumbulls

by CLF on Dec 22, 2011 11:51 AM EST up reply actions

in theory

how little that decision played into the outcome in theory. Even though I disagree with him, the fact is that outcome happened, however little chance it had to occur. 1, 2 and 3% chances are still a chance. Its in our nature to try to not leave things to chance and to control outcomes. As Las Vegas has so aptly proved, its also in our nature to not be put off by small percentages and to bet on long shots.

It's turkey, Lions and Macy's. Any other combination is just ludicrous.

Twitter is for pussies. I follow people in real life.

"Ambition is a poor excuse for not having sense enough to be lazy." - Charlie McCarthy

by Leonuro on Dec 22, 2011 11:57 AM EST up reply actions

I'm ok with Hue's decision.

I tried to substantiate that with math, but had an epic addition failure. I have no real argument other than I’m ok with his decision. He just bet on his team and lost. It happens.

It's turkey, Lions and Macy's. Any other combination is just ludicrous.

Twitter is for pussies. I follow people in real life.

"Ambition is a poor excuse for not having sense enough to be lazy." - Charlie McCarthy

by Leonuro on Dec 22, 2011 11:58 AM EST up reply actions

Totally agree.

http://twitter.com/#!/rumbulls

by CLF on Dec 22, 2011 1:01 PM EST up reply actions

that was a good way to sum it up - bet on his team..

he may have blown the call, but they had a solid lead, and even facing
98 yards and no time outs… it looked like Raiders had the advantage…
all the way through the end of the game, it actually felt a little like Seabass might have to just kick a 45 yard field goal, although ti also felt like he might make an 80 yarder (even if stats say he had a .00015 chance of making one from 80 yards out).

Blame fantasy football where stats are everything and the game, and the feel of the game really doesn’t matter

by BillySimsMadeMeDo on Dec 22, 2011 1:21 PM EST up reply actions

I'll be curious to see

if Stanford Routt will be there next season. I’d be more apt to let him slide if Calvin makes a huge play, but mugging him and giving him free yards in a crucial situation? Inexcusable.

It's turkey, Lions and Macy's. Any other combination is just ludicrous.

Twitter is for pussies. I follow people in real life.

"Ambition is a poor excuse for not having sense enough to be lazy." - Charlie McCarthy

by Leonuro on Dec 22, 2011 1:25 PM EST up reply actions

I think he's had a decent season though

by BillySimsMadeMeDo on Dec 22, 2011 1:36 PM EST up reply actions

I'll plainly admit

that I don’t follow the Raiders enough to judge his body of work. However, what I do know is that DBs have bee released on the strength of one bad game.

It's turkey, Lions and Macy's. Any other combination is just ludicrous.

Twitter is for pussies. I follow people in real life.

"Ambition is a poor excuse for not having sense enough to be lazy." - Charlie McCarthy

by Leonuro on Dec 22, 2011 2:02 PM EST up reply actions