FanPost

Fun With Numbers; a look at gametime winning probability



While researching rebuttal information from all the threads on "how" or "why" or even what coaching decisions have 'allowed' the Lions to comeback from 13pts down, 4 times this year, I came across aWP (win probability) calculator.

... So lets have some fun with numbers, shall we?

Lets take the Oakland game.... Some say Hughy's decision NOT to attempt a 2pt conversion was the biggest coaching mistake of the game. hmmm... let's have fun with some numbers to see how much that decision affected Detroit's WP.

To keep consistency, and according to this chart... Detroit got the ball 1st & 10 at Detroit's 29yd line with 7:40(possession after Stafford's fumble TD).

At that time and Oakland with a 13pt lead, Detroit's WP was .05... or 5% (chance to win)

If Jackson had called for the 2pt conversion and was successfull, a 14pt lead changes Det WP to .03 or 3%

A failed 2pt conversion, would end up being a 12pt lead, with Det WP of .06 or 6%

The Numbers, per the scenario, show that the lack of a 2pt attempt really had no major affect on the probability of Detroit winning.

ON THE OTHER HAND... again using this chart ; there is a noticeable change in Detroit's WP at 3:12 of the 4th quarter(Det-21, OAK-27). Michael Bush ran for a 2yd gain on 2nd down, leaving 3rd and 3 on the Detroit's 48. At that time Detroit's WP was flatlining at 11%. The Coaching decision to pass, and the resulting incomplete pass, gave Detroit a 25% WP. +14%! What if they had ran the ball? who knows!? But it seems that play decision by Oakland had the largest 4th quarter affect on Detroit's WP. (again, that's decision by Oak)

In Summary, this website has some pretty sweet stats and charts. Also, it enable's us fans to research just how important that coach's decision was per the game, per the situation.

Oh, and I don't claim, nor ever will claim to be a writer of any kind, so if the thread seems choppy, hard to read, and scatterbrained... oh well. :) My goal was to bring this website/tool to light to fellow POD'ers as to improve the knowledge of the game and hopefully reducing some of the emotional arguments.

PS- See Joshsun, not every "MISTAKE" is as big as you make it. (all in fun)

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Pride Of Detroit or its writers.

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