Why the Lions Should Take a Cornerback in Round One
by TuffLynx on Feb 22, 2011 6:56 AM EST
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PrintI was reading an article in SB Nation that Sean linked in the FanShots. It says Detroit will take Akeem Ayers with their first pick. While I was reading this article I was struck that there are some points that a some folks seem to be missing in considering their first round selections for their mock drafts.
The Lions are going to use the Best Available That Fits A Need (BATFAN) strategy in selecting their player in the first round. For the first time in a number of years, the Lions will pick low enough in the draft that the players who are clearly a step above the rest are going to be gone. There are not likely to be any "no brainer" choices that will fall to the Lions at pick 13. So the Lions will be selecting from a number of players with similar grades on their draft chart.
Given the BATFAN philosophy, not only will the Lions have grade on the talent of the player, but there will also be some weight given to whether they play a position of need and which positions are better to take in certain rounds. In this situation is is clearly better for the Lions to take a cornerback over a similarly graded linebacker in round one. I will explain why after the jump.
My opening point settles on the factors that make a dominant team. There are really four positions that are most important. On offense you need a franchise quarterback and a consistent, if not dominant, left tackle to protect your QBs blind side. On defense you need a dominant pass rusher and a very good, if not great cornerback. Teams that have these four positions filled are well on their way to winning division, and maybe even league, championships consistently. All the team needs to do is fill in the roster around them with good players, but they do not have to be great.
The Lions have two of these players drafted already. Matthew Stafford is the franchise quarterback, though he needs to keep healthy so that he can lead the team on the field instead of the sideline. Ndamukong Suh is a dominant force on the defensive line. Jeff Backus may not be a dominant left tackle, but he has been consistent of late. That makes him less of a priority to replace, though the Lions will have to give that some attention soon because Backus only has a few more years to play at a high level. The most immediate need out of the "big four" positions is a top quality cornerback.
As I have mentioned several times before, I believe there are better prospects available in later rounds at the linebacker position than there are at cornerback. IMO the Lions get better overall value by taking a CB in the first round and a linebacker in later rounds if the value of the players are relatively equal.
Linebacker is the type of position where a player can use drive and aggression to overcome talent deficits. Shutdown cornerbacks cannot compensate for a lack of speed or talent very easily by just working hard.The nature of the cornerback position places them against some high quality athletes and they will need to be a match in physical abilities and attributes if they are going to shut them down. Linebackers have a lot more help around them and they do not get placed on an island the way that conrs sometimes do.
All of this works together to mean that you can get a Pro Bowl caliber linebacker much later in the draft than you can get a star cornerback. That means if the Lions have several players available that all grade about about the same, the cornerback should get priority over any other position given their needs.
My opinion is not just backed up by the mechanics of building a team or playing a position. If you look at the top cornerbacks in the league over the past decade or so, they are usually drafted in the first round:
Champ Bailey – Round 1, pick 7
Nnamdi Asomugha – Round 1, pick 31
Darrelle Revis – Round 1, pick 14
Charles Woodson – Round 1, pick 4
Leon Hall – Round 1, pick 18
Johnathan Joseph – round 1, pick 24
Deangelo Hall – Round 1, pick 8
Antonio Cromartie – Round 1, pick 19
Dominique Rogers-Cromartie – Round 1, pick 16
Dunta Robinson – Round 1, pick 10
About the only real impact cornerback that was not a first rounder was Asante Samuel in my view. But he was drafted by the Patriots in the fourth round, and we all know the Patriots have a knack for developing mid and late round players into stars. It is possible to snag somebody like Cortland Finnegan from a small school as a sleeper pick, or maybe you can get a Jabari Greer as an undrafted free agent. But that is a "lightning in a bottle" type of situation. You can't count on it happening enough to make plans based on it.
I think these names prove my point though. The big majority of top cornerbacks are first round picks. Waiting till the second round only rarely nets you a very good cornerback, just a decent one, maybe. But if you are going to be a great defense, having a shutdown cornerback is a very desirable piece. Having a superb linebacker is less important. One other thing to notice is that the best cornerbacks are often selected where Detroit is going to draft, or even later, in the first round.
If you do the same analysis on linebacekrs you find that many of them have been drafted in the second round or later. Mike Peterson, Lance Briggs, Demeco Ryans, Lofa Tatupu, Joey Porter, Zach Tomas, James Harrison, Barrett Ruud, and London Fletcher are all guys that were drafted in the second round or later. Harrison and Fletcher were not drafted at all. They are perfect examples of using hard work and aggression to make up for a lack of pure talent.
May people rank Akeem Ayers fairly high on the draft boards. I feel his tendency to play slower than his speed allows is a big knock on him. His drive and desire are also called into question. In short, he is a soft player. I have ranked him as being drafted between pick 15 and 20 overall. I feel Ayers has already hit his peak value and he is on his way down the charts because his finesse play style does not suit an aggressive NFL defense at the linebacker position.
Both Brandon Harris and Jimmy Smith are in the opposite situation, I feel they are headed up the charts. By the time we get to the draft I feel that both Smith and Harris will be graded about the same as Ayers, if not a bit better. It is also possible that Prince Amukamara will drop to the Lions as well. Picking any of these three CBs at #13 will not be much of a stretch and I feel they take priority over any linebacker except possibly Von Miller. Miller might grade out high enough on the Lions draft board to surpass any CB except for Patrick Peterson.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Pride of Detroit or its writers. FanPosts are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable fans.
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Nice work and I generally agree with the thrust of your argument........but.....
your list of “top” Corners seems to be designed to prove your point.
The Cromarties are not top corners. DRC had a terrible 2010 and Antonio is above average at best. Dunta and Deangelo are two more above average CBs.
How about Tramon Williams [Undrafted]? Brandon Flowers [#35]? Terrance McGee [#111]? Rashean Mathis [#59]? Charles Tillman [#35]?
The point is that there are high quality Corners available later, but again, I agree with you that the odds of getting an outstanding CB are better in the first round than in the second or later rounds.
Also, there is an extremely long list of first round CBs who did not pan out [to say the least] and did not justify their high selection. But that is true of any position taken in the first round.
By the way, here is a list of first round LBs who worked out pretty well:
Clay Matthews -26, Jerod Mayo – 10, Patrick Willis – 11, Lawrence Timmons – 15, Jon Beason -25, Anthony Spencer -26, Chad Greenway -17, Manny Lawson -22, Demarcus Ware -11, Shawn Merriman -12, Derrick Johnson -15, Jonathon Vilma – 12, DJ Williams – 17, Terrel Suggs -10, Urlacher -9, Julian Peterson – 16, Takeo Spikes -13.
We can play this game all day. The bottom line will be whether Mayhew feels that the player available at #13 is good value for the Lions. I think that the second round consideration is very minor. The Lions want the best player they can get at #13 to build their talent base.
by NorthLeft12 on Feb 22, 2011 8:06 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
+1
Where the hell is Richard Marshall he is just as good as everyone on that list, just on a bad team. I think we got the next Cortland and Grimes on our roster right now in Aaron Berry.
I would love to sign Marshall over any corner we could get at #13. I think Marshall and Houston could be one of the top tandrums in the league and adding Smith and Berry only makes it sweeter.
But then i would rather have Lawson over any LB we could get at #13 as well, i would take Stephen Nicholas over any LB at 13. Having Lawson, Levy, Carpenter, Palmer and Mason or Matthews would sit fine with me.
I think guys over due it by thinking we need a star at every position on the field, GB just won the Super Bowl with a not so impressive line, missing there star TE, RB, CB and i’m sure more. The Jets who got star power up and down the roster have made it to the AFC Championship game and couldn’t beat a banged up Steelers team this year.
I’m okay with who ever Detroit takes in the first.
BOBBY " BOUCHER " CARPENTER for PRESIDENT...
CASEY MATTHEWS for VICE PRESIDENT...
P.C.P IS AN ADDICTION, GET HOOKED.
The list wasn't really intended to be exhaustive.
Since got the names from memory I was bound to miss a couple guys.
It's Cool...
good memory b/c i wouldn’t know what # any of them were choosen at.
BOBBY " BOUCHER " CARPENTER for PRESIDENT...
CASEY MATTHEWS for VICE PRESIDENT...
P.C.P IS AN ADDICTION, GET HOOKED.
Hey Lefty
I guess I’m nit picking here, but HOW IN THE HELL do you have Merriman on that list? Yeah he was the shit while he was juiced up,but take away the Juice and take away the agression.Suggs was a DE that was converted to LB so he was use to the hitting of O-lineman. Urlacher was a S in college, who had to put on weight and learn how to play ILB, it’s not like he just came out of the gate and was the force that he is now. And while you point out that there are many CB’s that were drafted in the first round that have busted, there are not as many CB’s that didn’t pan out as there are LB’s that were busts for being first round draft picks.If you want I will go threw and look at just the past 10 to 15 years and see which position has had more busts.Fuck the Lions have had 1st round busts at both positions in the past 15 years, Westbrooke who was drafted in the top 10 to cover Moss was a hard hitter but after he had his first injury he was never really relevant again. Claiborn was never anything in my opinion not as a Lion and not as a Viking.
How many lumps you want Doc?
For a few years [2005 - 07] the guy was one of the real playmakers at LB.
The guy was ALL PRO for those years. Yeah, I would like to have a guy for longer than that, but when he was on top of his game he was one of the high impact players in the NFL.
Hey davis, feel free to check the draft history and compare for the last fifteen years or so. I would be surprised if the Bust % was not about the same for both. Overall, I think almost every position has the same Bust % for the first round. I would love to see what you find.
Tomarrow morning
After I get comfortable I will go threw and try to do just that. Now for the sake of the conversation, what are we going to call a BUST, for a first round draft pick? Is a bust a guy who plays for 10 years but never really is a star/household name? Or are we talking about guys that play for only a few years and become (Jamarcus Russell) like players??? To me a first round bust is a guy that never really becomes a true player for the team that drafted him, and never really becomes a every week player.Alla Chris Claiborn, yeah he played for a few years but he never really lived up to a first round draft pick.Westbrooke on the other hand was good in my opinion until he got hurt.
How many lumps you want Doc?
I have argued about what a bust is a number of times on here.
My definition:
1. Must be picked in the top half of the first round. Top 16. After that, prospects have more holes in their games and questions and are less likely to be ready starters in the NFL. I call players after that disappointments rather than busts.
2. Has less than three full productive [well above average] seasons as a starter at his drafted position. I would increase this for prospects in the top six or so.
3. Injuries count. No passes for lack of performance due to injury on the field.
4. Failure due to off field issues counts too.
Busts are not always the fault of the player. Poor coaching and lousy utilization of skills can derail a career as much as anything. Sometimes it is also the fault of the team for picking a guy earlier than he should have been picked. ie. DHB.
I hate to call players busts as I consider that pretty derogatory and also something that the player ends up wearing when a lot of the time the team that drafted him is more responsible for his failure.
I agree with what you say as well.
I am not saying that taking a linebacker, or even an offensive tackle, in the first round is a dumb move. The facts are that the Lions still have more holes to fill than they can address from a single draft class. I trust Mayhew and Schwartz and if they pick a kicker in the first round then I am going to shut up and wait to see how that kicker performs before I criticize. They have been on target to this point, so there is no reason to get frantic if they so something unexpected.
My post is more about pointing out to the Akeem Ayers bandwagon that there are good solid reasons NOT to take Ayers that have little to do with his talent. Maybe I am just tiring of the Akeem Ayers drumbeat. It is truly getting old.
Tuffy, I don't think we need to lose any sleep over Mayhew picking a kicker in Round One.
And I agree with you about the Ayers and Smith bandwagons. Talk about emotional involvement!
I predict that the combine will not change the tune of either group.
by NorthLeft12 on Feb 22, 2011 11:09 AM EST up reply actions
What is a good CB
OK, so there is a little discussion as to what makes a good CB. We could look at the pro bowl, but that usually is a popularity contest and often is based on what they did last year/who is on a winning team. Looking at stats is hard for a CB because the best CBs don’t have anyone throw at them so they don’t get many stats. With that in mind I looked at stats. I looked at the top performers (CB only) last year in 3 categories: Tackles, INTs, and Pass Deflections. The names I got were surprising to me. If you rank each category and average out the scores (no weighting) you get this top 5:
Terrell Thomas – NYG – Draft 2nd
DeAngelo Hall -WAS – Draft 1st
Brent Grimes – ATL – UDFA
Devin McCourtney – NE – Draft 1st
Joe Haden – CLE – Draft 1st
Now people can argue that these stats don’t tell what is a great CB or not, but at least it is a ranking of sorts and if we got someone who was the top or near the top in those three categories I think we would all be pretty happy.
Brandon Harris and Jimmy Smith are terribly overrated
Watch closely at some of their tape. They are going to struggle in the NFL, especially Harris.
Harris and Smith are both very gifted athletes
And both of them have some areas where they are great in both ability and skillset. They may not be complete corners YET, but both could develop at the next level and become elite corners in the NFL.
Personally, I think Brandon Harris is a baller. He is always around the ball and making plays. Jimmy Smith is outstanding in coverage, but lacks aggressiveness against the run and tackles too high. That said, I am not sold on either one of them at pick 13…but I would not be upset if either one of them ended up being our pick there, because both players have the potential to be great at the next level.
I believe we have an excellent shot at getting Prince Amukamara (who I feel is the most complete true cornerback in this draft), and I believe he will fall to us not because of a concern with his ability to locate the ball or maintain coverage after double moves etc, but he will fall because there will be other players available, who are rated equally in their respective positions, who will be selected first…based on both value and team need.
I am not really sold on Patrick Peterson as a cornerback in the NFL either. He looks more like a great safety to me…like a Ronnie Lott. He can play corner, but his size and skillset better suits him to play safety. If I were ranking TRUE PRESS COVER CORNERBACKS in this draft (based on man cover ability alone), I would rank them like this:
1) Prince Amukamara
2) Jimmy Smith
3) Patrick Peterson (good enough to play corner at a high level in the NFL, but better off at safety)
4) Brandon Harris
Since I am sure someone in the top 5 is going to take Peterson, that will leave us with a choice of Smith or Harris if Amukamara gets picked before pick 13 (unless Von Miller falls to pick 13). If I am choosing between the two (Smith or Harris), then I have to decide how much better Smith is than Harris in coverage versus how much better Harris is than Smith against the run. Harris is a solid man in coverage, proven by the fact that opposing teams stopped throwing in his direction during the second half of the season (which hurt his overall numbers production wise). He attacks the ball at it’s highest point, is very fast to close on the ball carrier or receiver in space, and is also very physical. The main knock on him is his ability to tackle in the open field, as he has failed to break down properly in space at times and has missed some tackles because of it. This can be corrected with coaching, and it is not something that should take away from the fact that he is good in run support and in coverage. He is a well rounded prospect.
Jimmy Smith is also very physical and gifted when it comes to a press cover cornerback. He does an excellent job re-routing receivers at the LOS. He is a very large cornerback at 6’2, 210, and he is also very fast. His speed allows him to stay with the best and fastest receivers on deep routes and fades, which allows him to make a play on any ball thrown his way. He is also outstanding at locating the ball and playing the ball instead of the receiver. These things make it very difficult for opposing teams to throw his way (which they did not do often), even though he is not truly a ball hawking cornerback.
However, he seriously lacks aggressiveness against the run, he tackles way too high, he is a wrap up and drag down type of player who lacks pop and does not drive back ball carriers, he does not flash to the ball or close very quickly on underneath routes or running plays, and he tends to take plays off also. Smith also struggles at times with blockers, and has been effectively removed from many plays in his college career.
In conclusion, both players are solid prospects with areas they need to work on. Jimmy Smith is slightly better in pass coverage than Brandon Harris. Brandon Harris is much better in run support, breaking to the ball, and in overall explosiveness. Smith is a relatively sure tackler, even though he does not hit hard and drive players back (allowing them extra yardage), whereas Harris is a less sure, but far more physical, tackler. Jimmy Smith lacks physicality and aggressiveness in all areas outside of press man coverage, whereas Brandon Harris is very physical for his size (5’11 195lbs) in all aspects of his game. In my opinion, it would be very difficult to choose between the two players, but in the end I would rather give up a slight edge in coverage, in favor of solid coverage and superior run support. As such, I would be inclined to choose Harris over Smith at pick 13.
If I had to rank the top 4 cornerback prospects for this draft, in terms of OVERALL athletic ability, aggressiveness, physicality, intelligence, speed, AND skillset (both in coverage and against the run), I would rank them like this:
1) Patrick Peterson
2) Prince Amukamara
3) Brandon Harris
4) Jimmy Smith
It's a terrible thing to have to tell your fans, who have waited like Detroit's have, that their team won't win it this year. But it's better than lying to them.
--Sparky Anderson
I'll summarize my arguments in a few sentences...
If you can find a corner that can more than hang with the wideouts in the Big 12, and more importantly can TACKLE, then he is pretty damn good prospect. The big thing I don’t like about Brandon Harris is that he can’t tackle. There are 5’11" guys with speed in every draft, and many of them are even thought to be ball hawks, but not many of em develop into the elite prospects they are thought to be b/c they either get man handled by bigger receivers in the NFL or can’t tackle. Brandon Harris is a solid prospect, but I don’t think he is worthy of the 13th pick. If we’re talkin 20th or lower, then for sure.
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Well...I agree and disagree
I agree that he is probably a slight reach at pick 13, but so is Jimmy Smith. I disagree that Harris can’t tackle…that is pretty laughable actually if you have ever seen him play. The kid brings the wood a vast majority of the time. The only issue he has is breaking down in space, and as such his open field tackling needs a bit of fine tuning.
Overall, Brandon Harris is a very well rounded athlete. He is a solid press man cover corner (just not quite as good as Smith or Amukamara in coverage), and he is very solid in run support (better than Smith). If Von Miller is gone, and both Peterson and Amukamara are gone, then I would be happier with a slight reach at CB with Harris OR Smith versus taking a reach on a LB like Ayers or an OT like Solder, Castonzo, Tyron Smith, or Gabe Carimi. If there were a standout player available at pick 13, then I am more than certain that the Lions FO will give them great consideration before they make any kind of reach pick.
That said, I hate to say it but I could see the Lions picking a guy like Julio Jones or Mark Ingram at pick 13 if Von Miller, Patrick Peterson, and Prince Amukamara all are selected in the top 12. By the time pick 13 rolls around, I do not see any DT being available that warrants that pick, I do not see any DE who would warrant that pick, and I do not see any LB who would warrant that pick. That leaves us reaching for a corner like Smith or Harris, an OT like Tyron Smith, Gabe Carimi, or Anthony Castonzo, or seriously reaching for a LB or DE/DT at pick 13 (MAYBE one of the 5 players I listed will separate themselves from the pack at the combine/pro day workouts and not look like such a reach at that point…who knows). I do not see the Lions taking a QB, TE, FB, G/C, or Safety at pick 13.
I know this is just another highlight reel, but check it out…you can see that Harris is a very physical tackler:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0yjcu9CJvc
He’s better than Vontae Davis.
It's a terrible thing to have to tell your fans, who have waited like Detroit's have, that their team won't win it this year. But it's better than lying to them.
--Sparky Anderson
I agree that he is physical
but what good is being physical if he can’t wrap up? He can’t “light up” guys in the NFL like he does in college.
House of Spears | Just Another Detroit Lions Blog |
by Latif Masud on Feb 22, 2011 10:30 PM EST up reply actions
Oh and as far as the draft goes
I would rather take a OL guy if Amukamara, Peterson or Miller aren’t there. I just feel you could get developmental corners in round two instead of round one. I wouldn’t touch Solder, but I’m a Carimi fan even with his issues this past season
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by Latif Masud on Feb 22, 2011 10:32 PM EST up reply actions
If we have to take an OT...
I want either Castonzo or Smith.
It's a terrible thing to have to tell your fans, who have waited like Detroit's have, that their team won't win it this year. But it's better than lying to them.
--Sparky Anderson
thisdraft class isdeep at cb ///de //olb//ilb//and poor at ot //te //og//cis ok at wr//rb//ss//fs
now lets play lions gm want spot s on the lions roster do they need to upgrade and witch spots our they our ok at this year for this draft year the spot they our ok at for this draft our wr //qcb //te// now lets rank team needs on the defense side of the ball cb //ss //olb//ilb// de on offense side of the ball ot//rb//wr . now your the lions gm and you have ben drafting bpa in the draft for afew years now do change the game plan just because you draft at 13pick in the 1strd no you donot .so this year the lions gm will most licke ly pissoff alot of lions fans this year when he drafts a ot or a rb with the 13pick of the draft in the 1st rd of the draft why do isay this because he will get the bpa at 13 pick in the draft he could get the 1 playerat rb in thedraft at 13pickinthe draft or the 1ot in the draft at 13 both our needs for the lions and have greater value at 13pick in the 1strd then tacking 3or 4bpa at cb at 13or a olb who ranks as late 1rd pick on most draft boareds at 13pick of the draft ihate to say this but smart pick in this draft class is pick rb or ot because they lessplayers in thisdraft class who fill the lions needs at those spot then on the deffensence side of the ball.
I agree that this is a deep draft class for CB and OLB
but the question is what type of depth. I feel the CB depth is good because there is good top end talent (1st and 2nd round selections look like they will make the teams that pick them happy). For 4-3 OLB I think talent this year is better at the mid rounds (2-4). The top end talent is not that good (Von Miller looks like a solid pick, and Ayers may turn out to be a stud but outside of that who else projects into a 4-3 OLB), there is good talent for 3-4 OLBs in the top 2 rounds, but for 4-3 OLBs there are not many 1st round options (this would be a better sitiuation in Bruce Carter was healthy). However, in the 2nd – 4th rounds there is solid talent (so much that guys who may be available in the 4th may not be any worse than those picked in the 2nd).
So, for this draft class I feel that Tuff’s strategy is sound, and in general I think it is harder to find top end CB talent after the 2nd round than it is to find LB talent in the later rounds (possibly in part due to 40 times having a big effect on draft status and CB is a position where 40 time is very pertinent).
You made some very valid points...
but i disagree in a team needing a shutdown corner. If you have a team with a front four that can pressure the QB and have an above average secondary then you will do fine. What we need defensivly is to boost our LB corps.
Now i dont think we need a LB in the first round. I guy i like is Manny Lawson. Big enough to play the run and fast enough to cover. LB are crucial in both the run and pass so they are very important to any defense. If we solidify our front seven and bring in another corner that can effectlive cover recievers then we will be a playoff team no doubt.
But dont get me wrong…i want a corner in the first round, but only because i think they have the best value. I dont see another need that can be filled as of where we are drafting. But i know that the FO will bring in the right guy.
just pass me the damn ball
by Christopher Moriarty on Feb 22, 2011 11:58 AM EST reply actions
I agree with most of the logic
I certainly see higher value in Round 2 at LB vs CB, whereas I don’t see more value at LB in the 1st vs CB. It is tough though, CBs have one of the highest bust rates in the draft. I’m also not sure that the 4th position you HAVE to have is a dominant player at CB. In this day and age, I do value CB very high, but we’ve clearly put our eggs in the pass rush basket. The Steelers and Ravens have gotten away with only having adequate to good CBs (not great). The problem is, if you don’t have a great CB, you MUST have a great pass rush and some dynamic/dominant LBs…so we need to either get a legitimate #1 CB or a genuine playmaker at LB to compliment Levy if this defense is really going to progress from last year.
RA
GIVE ME DAVON HOUSE IN THE THIRD!!!!!!!
PLEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAASSSSSSEEEEEEEEE
This guy has been projected as high as the second… Personally, I am all in favor of drafting Miami style taking a CB in the 1st and 2nd.
I'd like to see us take a corner in the 1st
Mainly because I think that is the biggest need. The other major need for me is LB, which I think is fairly deep which means we can pick someone up in the 2nd.
RIP Robyn Bailey 1961 - 2010. I love you mum.
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