Call me crazy...

Men...I am a bit upset over the loss of our 7th round pick and the switch of our fifth round pick with the Chief's, because of the bullshit tampering ruling that the Lions were handed.  That said, I do not feel that it is the end of the world.  However, I do feel that it might change things when it comes to draft time.  As such, I felt that I would go ahead and bore you yet again with another Lion's mock draft.  I might expand a bit on my thoughts while I am at it, so that this is not just another list of guys I hope we pick.  I hope to give insight as to why I think the Lions will pick my way, so here goes...

Again, I say call me crazy if you must but I am not too worried about our offensive tackles at this point.  As such, I do not see the Lions drafting one at pick 13.  I am also STILL of the feeling that there is NO outside linebacker, other than Von Miller, who is even worth a first round selection (and yes, that includes the vaunted Akeem Ayers).  I very strongly believe that it will come down to either a cornerback OR a defensive end at pick 13, with an outside chance that we take a running back with the 13th pick.  I do not feel that Mark Ingram is so good that he will trump all other needs and players available at pick 13 however, and due to these facts I think that the Lions actually taking a running back at 13 is a rather remote possibility.

My bet is that the Lions are strongly considering Prince Amukamara, but the problem with that is I feel the Bengals are also quite high on him.  IF Patrick Peterson is selected in the top 3 picks, then I think Amukamara will go to the Bengals at pick 4.  However, I strongly feel that Peterson will fall to pick 4 and become Cincinnati's pick.  That should potentially allow Amukamara to fall to us at 13, and if he is there I believe that will be our pick.  If he is gone, then that will leave Jimmy Smith and Brandon Harris as the two best corners left in the draft (at least in my opinion).  It is entirely possible that the Bengals go with AJ Green at pick 4, passing on Peterson, and that the Browns end up with Peterson at pick 6...this would not effect our pick or position, but either way Amukamara could be the target of the 49ers at pick 7, which brings us back to Jimmy Smith or Brandon Harris at 13 if we are going corner.

The issue with us going corner in that event, would be the fact that one of the big name DEs, Da'Quan Bowers, Aldon Smith or Cameron Jordan, could also be available at 13.  Bowers is projected to be a top 4 pick, but he has a ton of red flags and his stock may be falling.  He could easily go to Minnesota at pick 12, but it might be ultimately difficult for the Lions to pass on him if he falls to 13.  Bowers is somewhat of a potential flash in the pan though, and I think his bust potential is pretty high, even though he was great for that one year.  He has injury issues, possible questions about work ethic, is struggling to pass physicals lately, and has far more bad film than he has good.  That said, he is a freak athlete who has a huge upside and loads of potential.  Right behind him is Aldon Smith and Cam Jordan.  Smith also battled injury last season, but again he is a freak athlete who is a bit raw and has huge upside.  Cam Jordan is a high motor guy who was nothing short of studly at the Senior Bowl, and who had a great season last year (and one without injury).  Smith projects in the top 15, while Jordan projects in the top 20...but I like Cam Jordan as the better pick for the Lions.

Jimmy Smith still projects in the top 25, and Brandon Harris is being projected in the top 40.  This poses a dilemma for the Lions, in my opinion, because the Lions can not afford to trade up if they want one of these two players, being that we only have 5 picks.  Unless the Lions want to sell future picks (highly unlikely), I do not see them trading up at all.  I also feel that it will be quite difficult for the Lions to trade down.  However, if they can trade down I believe they will.  That said, if they are to stand pat with the picks they have then in all likelihood they will not get Jimmy Smith OR Brandon Harris (the last of the top tier CBs in my opinion) if they do not select one of them at pick 13.  Here comes another call me crazy moment...but I do not see the defensive line depth being even remotely close to as thin as it is in our secondary, and I believe our pick is going to come down to which strategy we will be using for the draft.  If it is BPA without regard to need, then I expect the Lions would take Bowers, Aldon Smith, or Cam Jordan at pick 13 should Prince Amukamara be off the board.  If it is the BATFAN (best available to fill a need) strategy, then I would expect that the Lions will take one of Jimmy Smith or Brandon Harris at 13 (I personally prefer Harris, but most believe that Smith is the better corner with character issues aside).

MY PICK - If I were Martin Mayhew and Co, my pick would be Brandon Harris.  He was awesome at the combine, he drew accolades from Deion Sanders and Mike Mayock there, and he is a standup character who is a very hard worker.  I would have no doubt that he would give 110%, and I would be happy to have him on my team.  It may seem a reach at pick 13, but in my opinion his performance in the future will pay dividends and he will prove that he was worth the pick again and again...plus he would strengthen a very weak area of our defense and he would do so immediately.  I will not be upset if we take Bowers, Aldon Smith, or Cam Jordan...if they are there at 13 with Amukamara gone, then they will rightfully be the BPAs.  I will not be upset if Jimmy Smith is the pick, character issues be damned.  But Brandon Harris is the quality pick here, in my opinion, if we are taking the BPA to fill a need...and that is exactly what I would do.

Round 2, Pick 44 -

The first pick is the most difficult one, so now I am going to shorten things up.  My thinking is like this...if we went CB in round 1, then we are likely to go OLB in round 2.  If we went DE in round 1, then we are likely to go CB OR OLB in round 2.  That said, if Amukamara or Harris were the pick at 13, then I would expect the Lions to be looking hard at Bruce Carter and Mason Foster in round 2.  Bruce Carter is a legitimate first round pick, prior to the knee injury.  Mason Foster is a consistent player with great physical talent.  Both are projected as 2-3 tweeners (meaning they could go in the 2nd or third round), but I do not believe that will be the case.  I believe both of these guys will be gone in round 2, if not sooner.  After they are gone, the talent at OLB takes a major drop off in my opinion.

If the pick at 13 were one of the aforementioned DEs, then I would still expect Bruce Carter and Mason Foster to be in the discussion.  However, now you have to think about our bigger need again.  We have Levy, Palmer, and Carpenter, among others, who did a pretty damn good job in 2010 already.  Is the need at OLB greater than the need at CB?  I say no, and as such I enter Aaron Williams, Davon House, Ras-I Dowling, Curtis Brown, and Brandon Burton into the discussion.

Aaron Williams is a 1-2 tweener whose stock was hurt at the combine.  He looked more like a safety at the pro level than a corner.  Davon House is an interesting prospect, who improved his 40 time from a 4.43 to a 4.35 between the combine and his pro day workout.  The knock on him originally was his weight, but he bulked up to 200 lbs before the combine, and there is no doubt that the kid can cover.  That said, he is still a 2-3 tweener who comes from a relatively small school that did not face a ton of big time competition.  Dowling is a fast and physical corner that was originally a first round prospect before his last year in college.  Injury concerns, including pulling up lame after running the 40 at the combine (still ran a 4.4), are the main concern with him, and he is now also a 2-3 tweener.  Curtis Brown...arguably the best cornerback at the University of Texas last season, Brown disappointed with a 4.51 40 at the combine, but made up for it in the drills with his amazing vertical and ability to get to the ball.  I've watched him play, and he plays much faster than his 40 time suggests...not to mention he is a hitter who is projected as a 2-3 tweener.  Brandon Burton ran a 4.5 40 at the combine, but looked bad in the drills.  He is a 2-3 tweener, but he looks more like a project than an immediate impact player.

MY PICK -  Going on the premise that we picked either Amukamara or Harris in round 1, my pick here would be Bruce Carter.  Carter will bounce back from the knee injury and play in 2011, and he will continue to get better and better as time goes by.  Carter will easily supplant Palmer as the starting weakside OLB by year 2, and he will anchor that position for us (barring injury) for the foreseeable future.  If DE were the pick in round 1, then my pick here would be Curtis Brown, not so much because he is that much better than Davon House, but more because I feel he is more proven (NFL ready) and has faced better competition (with the two players being pretty equal talent wise).

Round 3, Pick 75 -

If we have not picked a CB by now, then someone please shoot me.  If we for some reason went DE/OLB in round 1 and 2, then I hope to God that CB is our number 1 priority by the 3rd round.  If we went DE/CB, then I hope OLB is our #1 priority at this point.  If we do what I hope we do, and pick a CB/OLB in round 1 and 2, then at this point my focus moves to the offensive line.  John Moffitt is likely to be available, and he is a beast of a blocker who is also versatile enough to play either guard or center.  In my opinion, he is the perfect Mayhew type of player.  If we went in a different direction in rounds 1 and 2, then I hope to God that Bruce Carter or Mason Foster fall to round 3 (if we went DE/CB) or that Curtis Brown or Davon House are still available at pick 75 (if we went DE/OLB).

I have slated John Moffitt as our 3rd round pick from the beginning, and I am sticking to my guns.  He would be able to start immediately at right guard, giving us a much needed push on that side of the line next to Gosder Cherilus.  Potentially, Moffitt could be groomed to replace Dominic Raiola, but maybe he does so well at guard that he stays there and has a long and illustrious career.  Moffitt is a great run blocker and a good pass blocker, and he would be an excellent pick at 75.

MY PICK - Assuming we drafted a CB/OLB in rounds 1 and 2, John Moffitt would be my pick here in the third round, without a doubt.  If we went DE/CB in 1 and 2, then I hope we get Carter or Foster at 75.  If we went DE/OLB in 1 and 2, then I hope we get Brown or House at 75.  If none of those guys are available (in either scenario), then my bet would be that we target a RB in the 3rd round, and my pick would then be one of Jordan Todman, Delone Carter, or Roy Helu.

Round 4, Pick 107 -

This is where I originally figured the Lions would target a running back in this draft.  If we were to draft a CB/OLB/G in rounds 1, 2, and 3, then I could see the Lions taking Delone Carter, Roy Helu, or Jordan Todman in the 4th round.  Helu is the running back from Nebraska that is 6' 220 and ran a 4.42 40 at his pro day workout.  He is projected as a 3-5 tweener, so I do not think it is out of the realm of possibility that he will be available at pick 107.  Helu is a very good power style runner who hits it between the tackles, but can also get outside and be elusive or catch a pass (he has good hands).  It is also possible that guys like Jordan Todman or Delone Carter are available at pick 107, and i would be happy with any one of the three.

MY PICK - Sticking to the ideal (in my opinion), I will assume that we went CB/OLB/G in rounds 1-3.  In that case, my pick here would be Delone Carter if he is there, then Helu if Carter is not there and Helu is, and then Jordan Todman if he is there and the other 2 are gone.  That said, if we went RB in round 3, I think we could do ourselves a favor by taking Deunta Williams or Ahmad Black if they are available at this point.

Round 5, Pick 154 - 

Ok...so with our last pick (barring a trade down scenario), let's assume that we drafted CB/OLB/G/RB in rounds 1-4.  In that case, now I see the Lions looking at a true Center or a WR.  So my pool is Kris O'Dowd and Alex Linnenkohl at center, and Terrence Toliver, Austin Pettis, or Stephen Burton at WR.  I might be more inclined to take a WR here, as long as we got John Moffitt somewhere along the lines.  So with that said...

MY PICK - If my scenario were to play out, and the Lions went CB/OLB/G/RB in rounds 1-4 and the guard was John Moffitt (giving us the versatility of a guy who can play both C and G), then my pick here would be Austin Pettis if available.  If not Pettis, then Toliver or Burton would work fine, with Burton being a very intriguing prospect.  IF for some reason none of these WRs are available, then I would fall back on O'Dowd first and then Linnenkohl.

REVIEW (Mock 1):

Round 1 - CB Prince Amukamara or Brandon Harris

Round 2 - OLB Bruce Carter

Round 3 - G/C John Moffitt

Round 4 - RB Delone Carter

Round 5 - WR Austin Pettis

REVIEW (Mock 2):

Round 1 - DE Da'Quan Bowers or Cam Jordan

Round 2 - CB Curtis Brown

Round 3 - OLB Bruce Carter or Mason Foster OR G/C John Moffitt

Round 4 - RB Delone Carter

Round 5 - WR Austin Pettis or C Kris O'Dowd/C Alex Linnenkohl

2 ADDITIONAL POSSIBILITIES (of the many):

Round 1 - Cam Jordan

Round 2 - Curtis Brown

Round 3 - Delone Carter

Round 4 - Duenta Williams or Ahmad Black

Round 5 - Austin Pettis or Kris O'Dowd/Alex Linnenkohl

OR

Round 1 - Cam Jordan

Round 2 - Bruce Carter

Round 3 - John Moffitt

Round 4 - Delone Carter

Round 5 - Austin Pettis