Since this is draft season we have been going around, and around, over different players. The debate often centers on whether the player represents a good "value" at a certain position in the draft. I think it might be interesting to hear what our posters think that "value" actually means. So I will explain what I look for in draft value and we can talk about it for a bit
I have a problem with this little project. There is a ton of things to talk about concerning evaluation of players for value. I am going to make it a bit easier by breaking up the evaluation into pieces so that we can talk about each aspect individually. That will make it easier to digest and help keep the discussions more on track. It also has the effect of making them seem like separate issues, when in fact they are all part of the same problem.
This article talks about how the value of a player will change based on the position that they are taken in the draft. It is the third in a series of five (or maybe more) articles on draft value. Please give your thoughts on the subject so that we can have a good, healthy discussion.
Wait For It!
We often hear guys say that a player will be a bad value in the first round but they would love them in the second round. This type of evaluation is strictly based on who else is available at a given draft pick. It is often another way of saying when you think they become the best player available at a certain point in the draft.
To illustrate my point let us say, hypothetically, that you are given a choice between three cars to keep for free. When you look at the cars you are allowed to choose from you see a brand new Ford Focus, a new Cadillac CTS, and new Lincoln MKS. The Focus is a good car, but it just is not in the same class as the Cadillac and Lincoln. Only a small percentage of people would be likely to consider the Focus as the best value of the three. The Cadillac and Lincoln are both likely to have a significant percentage of people that believe it is the best value because they are similar vehicles.
Now let's expand our example. Let's say that once a car is chosen it is gone and will be replaced by a different car. After two other people have selected, it is your turn to choose. The Cadillac has been chosen and replaced with a rusty 1975 Ford Pinto, the ultimate blow-up car. The Lincoln has been replaced with a raggedy 1975 Chevrolet Vega with the aluminum engine block, one of the most unreliable vehicles ever made. Now the Focus looks really good by comparison and would be considered the best value by most people.
Obviously these choices are subjective. Every person that selects will have to make their own estimation of relative value and different people will draw different conclusion. But the exaggeration in the examples was intended to illustrate how relative value works.
For a football example, the Lions would probably consider Mason Foster to be a stretch at the #13 pick if Prince Amukamara and Julio Jones are also available. But drafting Foster at the #75 pick would probably be a good value when considering who is likely to be left on the board.