Debunked

Alright...I wanted to address a certain person's statements, which have been extremely over stated over the course of the past few months here on POD, and just see how the so called rankings hold up versus actual game log statistics.  First of all, here are the statements in question (not including the we only have 2 linebackers BS):

You guys are happy with:

29th vs TE
26th vs slot
24th vs run
19th vs RB

But you see a need to improve:
2nd vs num 2 WR
10th vs num 1 WR

What I am going to do is list statistical facts from each of the Lion's 16 games last season, and compare them to the above rankings.  We'll just see how bad we REALLY were vs TEs and RBs.  See, the rankings listed above are based on DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), and these rankings do NOT include sacks or passes with no intended receiver listed, in regard to DVOA of defense against receivers.  My point (to be followed by my opinion) is this; How can you accurately rank, and then subsequently single out, specific positional players that are part of a TEAM defense, when you are first removing the very statistics that were the TEAM'S greatest asset?  Let me expand after the jump...

The idea behind the DVOA is actually pretty intelligent, and could be quite useful when applied in the proper context by the right people.

DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative. For more detail, read below.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

The major issue I have with this method of ranking, especially if we are going to attempt to use it to justify NEED based on positional value in regard to drafting college prospects, is that the data is compiled based on a comparison to a league-average baseline based on situation.  The Lions DO NOT play every game, or even every situational down, versus a mythical AVERAGE...and that is my first point of debunkage.

Next, when considering DVOA of defense against SPECIFIC receivers, the method REMOVES sacks and passes that were not intended for any specific receiver.  That is all well and good, because the idea is to create a ranking, again, based on a league average situational baseline, where the ENTIRE defense actually has to finish a play that was not ended by a sack or an incomplete pass to the towel boy on the sideline.  However, this method DOES NOT accurately rank INDIVIDUAL players on the TEAM defense, and it is INTENDED as a COMPARISON to a MYTHICAL AVERAGE TEAM, BASED ON SITUATIONAL INSTANCES!!  That is my second point of debunkage.

Now, keeping all of that in mind let us examine the REAL statistics on a game by game basis from the Lion's 2010 season.

Game 1 - Lions vs Bears:

TE Greg Olsen had 4 catches for 46 yards.  He was easily contained by our linebackers.

Chicago's WRs combined for 9 catches for 140 yards...5 catches for 71 yards went to the slot receiver, Devin Aromashodu, against our NICKLE CORNER (who happened to be Jonathon Wade at the time).  Again, slot receivers are NOT the responsibility of the linebackers in any NORMAL situation, and if they are it is ALWAYS a mismatch.  If the Lions are consistently lining linebackers up to cover slot receivers, then there is a issue with COACHING, not linebackers.

RBs Matt Forte and Chester Taylor combined for 79 yards rushing.  Looks like we did pretty well there vs the run.

Where we really got dinged against the Bears was by RB Matt Forte, who had 7 catches for 151 yards...including an 89 yard TD and a 28 yard TD.  117 yards and 2 TDs came on 2 pass plays that turned into explosion plays.  Clearly the linebackers were at least partially at fault here, as they allowed Forte to get past them and into the secondary.  However, take the "explosion" out of those two plays, perhaps with another corner who is excellent at closing on the ball (enter Prince Amaukamara or Brandon Harris) and maybe Forte has 7 catches for 45 yards and no TDs and the Lions win by 2 TDs, without even considering the bad call on the "process" play.

Game 2 - Lions vs Eagles:

TE Brent Celek had 3 catches for 27 yards.  Again, our linebackers had no trouble with him in coverage.

Philly's WRs combined for 12 catches and 228 yards with 2 TDs...1 to Maclin and 1 to Jackson.  WR1 DeSean Jackson had 4 catches for 135 yards and a TD (53 long) against Chris Houston, our CB1.  Maclin had 3 catches for 26 yards and a TD against our CB2.  The slot guy didn't do jack shi*...and he's not the responsibility of the linebackers anyway.  The RBs were also pretty non-existent in the passing game for the Eagles...McCoy had 4 catches for 8 yards.  Again, it looks like our linebackers did a pretty solid job in coverage.

The main problem against Philadelphia was our apparent inability to stop the run, which is 50% the fault of the defensive line and 50% the fault of the linebackers (without trying to say that 3% each, or something like that, fell on the CBs and Safeties).  LeSean McCoy had 120 yards rushing and 3 rushing TDs, with a long run of 46 yards.  There is no question that we have NEED at both linebacker and cornerback, but again I feel WLB was our weak point, and I think that can be adequately addressed in the 2nd round by drafting ONE linebacker.

**NOTE - Jahvid Best had 9 catches for 154 yards and a a 75 yard TD in this game...he scored the long TD by running right past good ol Ernie Sims, the Eagles WLB.

Game 3 - Lions vs Vikings:

TE Vinsanthe Shiancoe had 1 catch for 7 yards, and all Viking TEs combined for 4 catches for 34 yards...need I say more?

Minnesota's WRs combined for 14 catches, 137 yards, and 1 TD...6 catches, 62 yards, and a TD of that going to one WR1 Percy Harvin.  I think it is needless to say that the slot guy didn't do anything again in this game.

Once again the Lion's had trouble stopping the run against one of the biggest, fastest, and most powerful running backs in the NFL.  Adrian Peterson rushed for 160 yards and 2 TDs, with 5 catches for 30 yards to boot.  He had an explosion run of 80 yards for a TD, otherwise he would have had one short yardage TD and just 80 yards rushing.  The TEAM defense failed to stop the big play here, once again, and the blame falls on everyone.  Yes, the defensive line failed to wrap him up.  Yes, the Linebackers failed to wrap him up and they allowed him to get free in the secondary.  Yes, the common theme here is that once the RB is in the secondary against Detroit, you can count on a minimum 20 yard gain!  Again, maybe if we had another corner who was solid in run support then these explosion plays would happen less often.  My point is NOT that we do not need a LB in the draft...never has been.  My point is that we need a CB and a LB, and I feel we will do ourselves justice by getting the CB first and the LB second.

Game 4 - Lions vs Packers:

This one is simple...the Lions contained one of the best QBs in the league, allowing just 181 yards passing.  They had 2 INTs versus Rodgers, but they also allowed 3 TD passes (one of which was a 48 yard strike to Donald Driver...CB anyone?).  Greg Jennings also had a TD catch and so did TE Jermichael Finley, but those two combined for just 6 catches and 61 yards otherwise (Finley had 4 for 36).  Stop that ONE deep ball and we win...plain and simple.  The linebackers and the D-line did an outstanding job, as none of the Packer RBs had more than 39 yards rushing, and none of them scored.

Game 5 - Lions vs Rams:

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA....blowout!  Danny Amendola was their only hope, with 12 catches for 95 yards...try blaming that on the linebackers...

Game 6 - Lions vs Giants:

TE Kevin Boss had 2 catches for 27 yards and TE Travis Beckham had 1 catch for a 1 yard TD...

WRs Steve Smith (6 for 70), and Mario Manningham (4 for 51 and a TD) did most of the damage in the passing game against our CB1 and CB2.  The rest of the WRs combined for 5 catches and 18 yards.

Again the issue was stopping the run.  Ahmad Bradshaw had 133 yards rushing and 2 catches for 10 yards, but the scoring was done in short yardage by Brandon Jacobs (35 yards and 2 TDs).  Yep...it baffles me that we have such a good D-line and we can't bottle these guys up, but maybe our D-line is more focused towards creating pressure on the QB (I think that is pretty obvious).  We need to work on plugging gaps on running downs for sure, and again I agree that we need another LB to shore up the weak side (round 2...that's all I have to say).  A good run supporting CB in round 1 and a fast, hard hitting, rangy linebacker in round 2 should do wonders for us in this department.

Game 7 - Lions vs Redskins:

TE Chris Cooley had 4 catches for 48 yards and TE Fred Davis had 1 catch for 9 yards...

WRs Anthony Armstrong (3 for 92) and Santana Moss (6 for 56) did a majority of the damage in the passing game, with the rest of the Washington WRs combining for 1 catch for 2 yards (uhhh...it was just Joey Galloway actually).

The Washington RBs, Keiland Williams and Ryan Torain, combined for 35 yards rushing and 1 rushing TD by Williams, while also catching 6 passes for 47 yards and 1 receiving TD by Torain.

The defense was on fire in this game (nobody on the opposing team did any major damage), and the offense seemed to be firing on all cylinders...Stafford had 4 TD passes and the Lions won their second game of the season.

Game 8 - Lions vs Jets (The 2010 POD outing):

As mentioned, I had the pleasure of joining several of our POD members for this game...and I tell you our only downfall was Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes.

TE Dustin Keller had 4 catches for 59 yards...

WRs Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards combined for 8 catches for 192 yards and a TD...the fateful TD being on a 74 yard bomb in OT to Edwards, to win the game for New York.  Before that, Edwards had been held to 2 catches for 4 yards, while Santonio Holmes had 5 cathces for 114 yards (52 long).  The rest of the Jets WRs (just Cothchery) combined for 2 catches for 29 yards.  Our defense did an excellent job containing the entire Jet offense...if it were not for a couple of bad plays where they got beat deep.  We had that game in the bag...and it was a disappointing way to lose.

The Jet RBs, Tomlinson and Green, combined for 101 yards rushing and no rushing TDs (55 for LT and 46 for Greene).  Tomlinson did his usual deal in the passing game, catching 6 passes for 47 yards, while Greene had 2 catches for 9 yards.  Neither RB found the end zone in the game.  Our linebackers and D-line did a great job once again.

Game 9 - Lions vs Bills:

This game was a one man show for the Bills.  Fred Jacskon scored both of their TDs, went off for 133 yards rushing and a rushing TD, and had 6 catches for 37 yards and a receiving TD.  The Lions simply could not score in this game, even with CJ catching 10 balls for 109 yards and a TD.  This all goes back to all of the rest of the games where the RB beat us...we DO need a CB and a LB, that much is obvious, but the Bills WRs and TEs did not do a damn thing against us (just adding to continue debunking our vulnerablility against TEs in the LB corp).

Game 10 - Lions vs Cowboys:

This was a pathetic game in more ways than one.  The Lion's defense was not one of those ways.

TE Jason Witten, one of the best in the NFL, had 4 catches for 48 yards...

WRs Roy Williams, Dez Bryant, and Miles Austin combined for a whopping 7 catches for 35 yards...but they also had 3 TDs...2 to Austin (3 and 4 yards) and 1 to Bryant (1 yard).

RBs Jones, Barber, and Choice combined for 94 yards rushing and no rushing TDs (Jones was best with 51 yards), and 6 catches for 64 and no TDs receiving (3 for 35 to Jones was tops).

What broke the camel's back in this game was field position, untimely turnovers, piss poor special teams (the Lions gave up a 97 yard punt return TD in this game), and a 29 yard run(?!?!) by Jon Kitna?!?!?!  Christ...broken containment by the DE on that side, with our LBs in coverage, allowed that atrocity...in other words you can't blame our linebackers or corners for the fact that our offense only scored twice in the game (add in the Rayner FG and the safety and we scored 19).

Game 11 - Lions vs Patriots:

Another case of atrocious play by the secondary in the second half...and you get a blowout on Turkey day...

TE Rob Gronkowski had 5 catches for 65 yards (the best performance by any TE vs the Lions thus far), TE Alge Crumpler had 1 catch for 27 yards, and TE Aaron Hernandez had 1 catch for 18 yards.  For the first time in the 2010 season the Lion's linebackers gave up over 100 yards to opposing TEs...against arguably the best QB in the NFL (top 2 minimum).  That said...they did not score.

WRs Deion Branch and Wes Welker killed us...Branch had 3 catches for 113 yards and 2 TDs (one a 79 yd TD) and Welker had 8 catches for 90 yds and 2 TDs.  Neither of these guys are the responsibility of the linebackers...so who was the problem?  Yeah...

RB Ben Green-Ellis also chipped in 2 rushing TDs on 59 yards rushing (one of which was a 15 yard run up the middle, the other a 1 yard run up the middle).

The rest of the Patriot team did very little on offense (3 catches for 28 yards and 49 yards rushing)...but 4 TD passes by Tom Brady?  Hard to win like that...very hard indeed...and we were WINNING at halftime by a TD!!

Game 12 - Lions vs Bears:

All I can say about this is ughhh...despite attempted heroics by Drew Stanton, the story of this game was Earl Bennett, Matt Forte, and Chester Taylor.

TE Greg Olsen had 1 catch for 5 yards...DAMN IT!  Where are our LBs??  That said, a TE did chip in a TD in this game for the Bears, as Brandon Manumaleuna had 2 catches for 23 yards and the game winning 7 yard TD catch in the 4th quarter.

RBs Matt Forte and Chester Taylor were held in much closer check in the passing game this time around, as they combined for 7 catches and 67 yards with no receiving TDs.  However, Forte managed to rush for 64 yards and a 14 yard TD, while Taylor managed 33 yards and a 1 yard TD on the ground.  Both of the scores by the running backs were set up by the 7 catches for 104 yards by WR Earl Bennett, who had a field day everywhere he lined up against our secondary.  Take Bennett out of the equation, by adding another cornerback who can cover and removing one who isn;t so good at doing such, and I see a dominant game by the Lion's defense.

Game 13 - Lions vs Packers (here's where it gets fun):

I was also at this game, thanks to SLH for the tickets and some lucky driving through the winter ice storm by myself.  There is definitely not a lot to say for the Packer offense in this one, as Rodgers got KTFO and the Detroit D was NOT havin it in OUR house that day!

TE Andrew Quarless (who?) had 5 catches for 62 yards...and that was their best player for the game.

Flynn tried to spread the ball to everyone on the team, to the effect that nobody was able to do anything...4 catches for 52 yards was the best they could come up with, after Quarless, and that was by Greg Jennings.

The Packer RBs rushed for 34 yards and 5 catches for 35 yards...no TDs...

The Lions won their 3rd game of the season by a score of 7-3 on a FUC***G beautiful 13 yard pass from Stanton to Will Heller for the game winning TD, on the late 4th quarter game winning drive.

Game 14 - Lions vs Buccaneers:

TEs Kellen Winslow Jr, John Gilmore, and Ryan Purvis combined for 6 catches and 55 yards (4 for 46 by Winslow)...again, no big gainers by the TEs as the LBs did a great job containing them...

WR Mike Williams had 6 catches for 96 yards and a TD...wonder who was covering him?  Hint: It was not a linebacker.  The rest of the Tampa trash combined for 5 catches and 54 yards...no TDs.

Again the majority of the damage was done by the opposing running game.  RB LaGarrette Blount rushed for 110 yards and a 39 yard TD.  RB Cadillac Williams rushed for 38 yards and had 2 catches for 26 yards.  There was nothing out of the ordinary here...just a solid attack on the ground vs a team weak against power backs (up the middle, and on the weak side...but up the middle is mostly due to a lack of support on the weak side and by the corners and safeties...I say we need one of each, unless Eric Coleman already answers that bell).  This game was a kick fest...

Oh yeah...we won our 4th game of the season in OT, thanks largely in part to a huge game by #5.

Game 15 - Lions vs Dolphins:

TEs Mickey Shuler and Anthony Fasano combined for 4 catches and 75 yards with no scores...nothing special and pretty well defended by our linebackers...

WR Brandon "I'll stab you bitch" Marshall (who finally got stabbed himself for once) had 10 catches for 102 yards and no TDs, while Devonne Bess had 5 catches for 34 yards and a TD.  Neither guy, again, is the responsibility of a linebacker in coverage...and if he is, it is a mistake by the coordinator.  The rest of the WRs for Miami combined for 2 catches for 12 yards.

RBs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams combined for 108 yards rushing and a 1 yard TD (Brown), while collecting a combined 8 catches for 55 yards and no scores receiving.  Again...damage was done in the running game, and the issue must be addressed, but there is no need for 3 linebackers to be drafted by the Lions.

The Lions won their 5th game of the season, thanks to a LINEBACKER...as DeAndre Levy picked off Chad Henne and ran it back 30 yards for the game winning TD.

Game 16 - Lions vs Vikings:

HA!!  No Favre, no problem...the Vikings did not score an offensive TD in this game!  Jared Allen had a 36 yard pick 6 against Shaun Hill, and Longwell booted 2 FGs...and that was all she wrote!

TEs Kleinsasser and Shiancoe combined for 4 catches for 35 yards and no TDs...

WR Percy Harvin was the best player for the Vikings on this day, catching 8 balls for 69 yards and no TDs.  The rest of the WRs managed to combine for 3 catches and 29 yards.

RB Adrian Peterson got handled too.  He was only allowed 31 yards rushing, no TDs, and 2 catches for -2 yards!  No Favre, no Peterson...NO VIKINGS!  Gerhart had 12 yards rushing and 1 catch for 6 yards.

The dual threat of Joe Webb didn't even get anywhere on the ground, as he was held to 35 yards rushing.  I'd dare say it put the value of Mike Vick into perspective, and Webb is no Mike Vick.

The Lions won their 6th and final game of the season...bringing their record to 6-10.

Conclusion:

In closing...I think it is blatantly obvious that the DVOA rankings were NOT used in the proper context, when the rankings were attempted to be used as a factual basis, to support the idea that we NEED to draft 3 linebackers or that linebacker is a greater NEED than CB.  In fact, I would go so far as to say that the DVOA rankings mentioned are completely IRRELEVANT to this discussion, outside of the fact that they do show we struggle against the run...which in turn proves that we do need help at LB and CB.  However, the idea that we were ranked #2 against the WR2 and 10th vs WR1 look to be WAY OFF base...so I am not so sure I believe a damn thing that was posted there.  In short...theory DEBUNKED.