Let's revisit an idea from awhile back now...
by KDawg on Aug 1, 2011 2:38 PM EDT
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PrintHey guys...I was just reading through my Twitter feed and I came across a tweet from Matt Miller of NFLdraftscout, and saw it reconfirmed by Joe Fortenbaugh, that the Giants have given Osi Umenyiora permission to work out a trade. Anyone care to venture a guess at where I am going with this?? I'll tell you after the jump.
I think it is pretty clear that I am thinking "maybe we trade Avril to the Giants for Umenyiora." Now before everyone jumps the gun and berates me over this idea, let me say that upon further examination I myself do not want this to happen. Umenyiora is a great pass rusher, and he always gets a fair amount of sacks. However, he also came into the league in 2003 and is now in his 8th season at age 30. Cliff Avril is going into his 4th year, and he 24 or 25 years old. While Umenyiora is a known commodity, I believe that Avril has far more potential and currently has way more upside than Umenyiora. That said, I want to make it clear that I could easily make a case FOR trading Avril to the Giants for Osi Umenyiora.
In comparison of their stats, I find some interesting facts at specific points. In Cliff Avril's 3rd year (his best so far), he had 8.5 sacks in 13 games started. Note that Cliff Avril has yet to play a full 16 game season. In Umenyiora's 3rd season, he played a full 16 games, starting all of them, and he accumulated 14.5 sacks en route to his first pro bowl appearance and being named 1st team all pro. Avril had 5 pass deflections, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery, and 23 total tackles (13 solo). Umenyiora had 3 PDs, 4 FFs, 2 FRs, and 48 TTs (26 solo) in his 3rd season. Last year, Umenyiora had 11.5 sacks, started all 16 games, had 2 PDs, TEN forced fumbles, 1 FR, and 33 total tackles (18 solo), while Cliff Avril (in his best season so far) started just 13 games, had 8.5 sacks, 5 PDs, 1 FF, 1 FR, and 23 total tackles (13 solo). I believe the main question here should be "Can Cliff Avril play a full 16 games and stay healthy, while also consistently producing?"
Cliff Avril is a young gun. Osi Umenyiora is going to be 30 years old. Would it be worth trading Avril for Umenyiora? Maybe not, but does anyone else think it is possible we could make a different trade for him, or even that it could be something the Lions are considering? Do we need another DE? We just lost Turk McBride, and it has been pointed out that we are pretty deep on the D-line. That said, we only have 4 DEs under contract at this point, and one of them is Narada Williams (KVB, LoJack, and Willie Young are the other 3). I would say that we definitely need one more DE, and it probably wouldn't hurt to have 2 more. If not a trade of Avril for Umenyiora, are there any other players that we have that you guys think might interest the Giants enough to send us Osi?? I would love to have him on our roster, but I'm not one to say that Avril will never produce an all pro or pro bowl quality season, and as such I am not personally ready to see us trade him straight up for Umenyiora...being that Avril is just 25, while Umenyiora is 30. However, would we be more willing to pull the trigger on that very deal if in fact Avril refuses to 1) Sign a tender, or 2) Agree to a new deal??
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Pride of Detroit or its writers. FanPosts are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable fans.
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NFL net said the Giants want nothing less than a 1st round pick
yu may want to rethink that. And no CLIFF is one of our guys you need to take care of your Lions. Otherwise why should Calvin or anyone else think you will take care of them. I like Osi but we gotta pass here.
"Power flows to the one who knows how. Desire alone is not enough." -MEGATRON
PCP 4 LIFE
What am I rethinking?
We want a 1 and a 3 for Avril…
If one of these guys can't take us to the promised land, maybe we should shop for one. You can have the greatest running back of all time, but if you don't have a consistent quarterback, you don't win.
-Wayne Fontes
Also
We can’t protect any player that does not want to be here. If Cliff Avril refuses to sign his tender, and does not agree to a new deal, then how do the Lions “take care” of him?
If one of these guys can't take us to the promised land, maybe we should shop for one. You can have the greatest running back of all time, but if you don't have a consistent quarterback, you don't win.
-Wayne Fontes
I like Cliff
But, if he won’t sign the tender, make the trade! I don’t know. I have this thing about
players that WANT to be here, and it isn’t just about the money. Yeah, I know it’s a business but………..Just sayin’!
Expectations don't produce!
he just wants to secure his future
He has said over and over he wants to be in Detroit. I am actually starting to think Mayhew is dropping the ball here. if he signs his tender now or next week it dosen’t matter. He can’t be in camp right no anyways because of the tender.
"Power flows to the one who knows how. Desire alone is not enough." -MEGATRON
PCP 4 LIFE
I agree
I think Cliff’s point of view as well as the FO is, why do anything ? You can’t show up till the 4th. This is a crazy year, let the 2 week off season play itself out. That way when the dust settles they can really talk with no distractions.
Actually...
They can show up at the facility and participate in conditioning, get their physicals done, learn the playbook, etc. They just cannot practice. There are things that Cliff can get done. He is just choosing not to do that. Frankly, it makes me question his commitment to the team.
I agree Profiler...
BUT the proof will be in the pudding…until that offer is signed, everything else is all talk.
If one of these guys can't take us to the promised land, maybe we should shop for one. You can have the greatest running back of all time, but if you don't have a consistent quarterback, you don't win.
-Wayne Fontes
Secure his future?
What the hell is that spin doctor bullshit?
He has a tender offer that pays him several times what he made last season. He has a contract offer that he is choosing not to sign. Maybe he wants a longer term, but that is something that can be negotiated while he is playing on his tender offer. Sounds to me like he wants to pull an Albert Haynesworth. He wants the big signing bonus so he can coast.
Osi is older than Cliff
I don’t think Cliff for Osi is a fair trade in anyway. I also don’t think they would even consider it. They still have Kiwi who they absolutley love. They want the pick so they can start Kiwi.
"Power flows to the one who knows how. Desire alone is not enough." -MEGATRON
PCP 4 LIFE
No third...
it changed in the new CBA… its just a #1.
by CLF on Aug 1, 2011 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Cliff wants to be here.
I think he is younger and will come at a better price. Osi, not only wants to be traded but wants a BIG contract negotiation for a long term deal. That eats our cap space for all those guys with 1-2yr contracts. Also, even tho people are freaking out about our DE position I am not. We are deep in young talent, I say let them play and see what we have before we shop FA and the draft. We have filled many holes. Next year will be about extentions for those FA that worked for us as well as anyone else deserving/ needing a extention. Next draft we can focus on DB’s and Oline. DE could also be a choice if we let the season and our young guns play the year out, same could be said about our CB’s. We have less " known " talent there vs. our Dline.
Where is all of the "young depth" you speak of at DE??
As I said…we have FOUR DEs under contract and one of them is Narada Williams.
If one of these guys can't take us to the promised land, maybe we should shop for one. You can have the greatest running back of all time, but if you don't have a consistent quarterback, you don't win.
-Wayne Fontes
Considering...
It would be a VAST improvement to the DE position…. I like the idea of trading for Osi…. however, I’m not sure Avril is enough to satisfy the Giants “wants”.
… I’m also not sure that the Lions have anyone that would bring Osi’s value down to a 2nd or 3rd round pick.
I've been a bit surprised
at the willingness of some to want to trade Cliff. I feel he’s a bit underrated by the community here. With the loss of Mcbride and an aging, but still effective KVB, we really need Cliff here long term. I hope him and LoJack can be our DE’s for the next 5 years. Cliff played all of last season at the age of 24 and was graded out as PFF’s 11th best DE. He had a very good year and he’s just entering his prime. One stat I’d like to add to what KDawg has already presented is that he had 34 QB hurries, with most of those causing the QB to have to step up in the pocket. That’s huge for us defensively since it’s forcing the QB right into Suh, Williams, SLH and now Fairley.
It seems some people are getting on his case for not signing his tender yet. Let’s remember that even if Cliff signs his tender now he can’t actually practice until August 4th. It makes sense for him to try to work out a long term deal now that the craziness of the 1st week back in the NFL is over. I’d be very surprised if Cliff doesn’t have a long term deal some time this year, most likely before August 4th.
I like the fact that the FO HASN'T given Avril a long term deal.
8.5 sacks is a start… But to get a long term deal done before any consistancy has been shown is… well… very “Redding” like.
3/4ths through the season would be an excellent time to get that long term deal done.
by CLF on Aug 1, 2011 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed...
provided he is producing and not on the IR.
If one of these guys can't take us to the promised land, maybe we should shop for one. You can have the greatest running back of all time, but if you don't have a consistent quarterback, you don't win.
-Wayne Fontes
If he is on the IR he still gets paid
The only part of a contract that is guaranteed is the signing bonus. So what you are really saying is that Avril wants a long term contract so that he can get a big signing bonus and have that prorated in order to fit under the cap. If that were the case I think the Lions have probably already offered him something like 5 years at $15 million with a signing bonus of about $5 million. Then his salary would be about $2 million per season. That is a deal the Lions could afford and retty much matches his production to this point. It sounds to me that he wants a lot more than that.
Right
I was just saying I agree he should sign the tender and negotiate a long term deal later, providing he is producing and not on the IR.
If one of these guys can't take us to the promised land, maybe we should shop for one. You can have the greatest running back of all time, but if you don't have a consistent quarterback, you don't win.
-Wayne Fontes
I don't want his attitude
Umenyiora is always whining about his contract nonstop. Even when he gets a new one he is bitching about that one by the time the season ends. There is never enough money for that guy. I will have to admit though, that I am a bit worried that Avril is showing signs of being similar.
Nice try haha
"We're looking to improve this team every day, every week, every month until we get to our ultimate goal which is to win a championship."
-Martin Mayhew Detroit Lions GM, Master of the Universe
"Fairies don’t win championships. Bad Ass Mofo’s Do!"- Kevinz418
by Home in Cleveland, Heart in Detroit on Aug 1, 2011 11:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Here is my thinking
Is Osi better? Yeah, but he comes at a price, and not just trading talent but money also. We would be trading them our 25 year old defensive end coming off a career year for a 30 year old who will cost us 7 to 10 million a year. Avril would cost us a max of 7 million…and all of this is assuming that it is a defensive end the Giants want, an area they are still quite stacked at. My guess is they either want a draft pick…a first rounder or some significant help in their linebacking corps and offensive line. Neither of which we are in luxury of providing.
House of Spears | My Detroit Lions/NFL Blog
Agreed
I also believe it would be hard for us to make a trade for Umenyiora. That said, as long as it wasn’t Avril or another of our key starters, I would be happy to see the Lions trade for him. I don’t think it is worth a 1st round pick…but if we go deep in the playoffs it will be more like a high 2nd rounder, and that is starting to sound better to me at that point.
If one of these guys can't take us to the promised land, maybe we should shop for one. You can have the greatest running back of all time, but if you don't have a consistent quarterback, you don't win.
-Wayne Fontes
If we pay Avril 7 mil we are crazy.
7 mil is what he deserves if he has 12 sacks this season and improves against the run. Right now he is a grade lower than our boy from Minny that just signed with Atlanta. 5 years. 5 mil a year. 8 mil signing bonus so his cap number is similar this year to what it would be on the tender offer. Thats as high as MM will go in my opinion to an unproven player. Ohhh and Loosing TUrk is making me wonder if trading back and taking Cam Jordon might not have been better than Fairly. I will explore that thought in a fan post.
Malek
by Matthew Malek on Aug 1, 2011 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
You don't get how important Avril is
Because of the scheme the Lions play, they are heavily reliant on the defensive line, and they heavily rely on Avril to force the quarterback to move up in the pocket. Lawrence Jackson can do this too, but he’s not nearly as good at it as Avril, which basically makes him the second most important player on the field next to Suh. I would pay 7 mil for a stud DE in his prime. He has 9 sacks in 13 games, which means if he had played all 16, he would have about 11.
House of Spears | My Detroit Lions/NFL Blog
Not sure how well Fairley is going to play yet
I will not judge just yet.
If one of these guys can't take us to the promised land, maybe we should shop for one. You can have the greatest running back of all time, but if you don't have a consistent quarterback, you don't win.
-Wayne Fontes
I don't believe the lost Turk
I believe they let Turk walk. I can’t prove it, it’s just my read on the situation.
Individuals should protect themselves. Governments can't protect individuals from themselves, it's just impossible, otherwise they become a tyranical state. -Ron Paul
Agree
Their talents are similar with Osi slightly ahead due to experience. Avril is much younger though and should continue to improve. Plus he’s mucjh cheaper.
Avril wants to be here he just wants to know his future is secure. Nothing wrong with that.
"We're looking to improve this team every day, every week, every month until we get to our ultimate goal which is to win a championship."
-Martin Mayhew Detroit Lions GM, Master of the Universe
"Fairies don’t win championships. Bad Ass Mofo’s Do!"- Kevinz418
by Home in Cleveland, Heart in Detroit on Aug 1, 2011 11:06 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Asante samuel
Detroit needs to make a movE on him….is he worth a#1?…. When you look at this team and what it could be with a legit#1 cb…..it’s offly tempting
by CLF on Aug 1, 2011 7:19 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Awfully...:o)
If one of these guys can't take us to the promised land, maybe we should shop for one. You can have the greatest running back of all time, but if you don't have a consistent quarterback, you don't win.
-Wayne Fontes
give me Berry...
or give me death, haha.
by lions_sucker on Aug 1, 2011 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Why would we trade Avril...
he is key to our defense. If it’s not broke, why fix it. If anything, we need to beg our FO to sign him for a long term deal now and look for a future replacement for KVB.
Also, for one, if Avril does not sign his tender or is given a new contract, I don’t think we even have the option to trade him, as he is not under contract.
Secondly, Avril is not “holding out”, yet. He can’t participate in practice until Aug. 4th anyways, so it only makes sense for him to be hopeful for a long term deal. Why sign his tender and give up a lot of bargaining power. I guarantee that he WILL sign his tender if no long term deal is reached by Aug 4th and no time will be missed. Avril is not being a “diva” and is only trying to get a long term deal, which every player wants. He wants to play in Detroit and I think he will be here for a long time.
As Latif has said, Avril is crucial to our scheme and is a solid, young, playmaker who IMO, is greatly undervalued by fans.
He's an RFA
So if he doesn’t sign the tender or agree to a new contract, then he either signs elsewhere, thereby compensating us with draft picks, or he sits out for a year.
Point taken LS…I was not thinking clearly about the situation. Avril can not be traded unless he signs the tender offer or agrees to a new deal first.
If one of these guys can't take us to the promised land, maybe we should shop for one. You can have the greatest running back of all time, but if you don't have a consistent quarterback, you don't win.
-Wayne Fontes
I agree with CLF
If we’re doin a deal, I’d rather go for Samuel.
If we’re looking for DE depth, I say resign DeVries.
Thank you.
I'd prefer we kept him
I see him as a crucial part of our defence, which I’d prefer we didn’t lose. But as others have said, I’d like to see Asante come from it, rather than Osi.
I would be happy with that
However I think that neither one is likely.
If one of these guys can't take us to the promised land, maybe we should shop for one. You can have the greatest running back of all time, but if you don't have a consistent quarterback, you don't win.
-Wayne Fontes
Why would Philly trade for another DE
They have bookends already, with the signing of Babbins, they don’t need another pass rush specialist and is a full tier under their starters.
How many lumps you want Doc?
I just meant I would be happy if we ended up with Samuel...
Not necessarily by trading Avril…but regardless.
If one of these guys can't take us to the promised land, maybe we should shop for one. You can have the greatest running back of all time, but if you don't have a consistent quarterback, you don't win.
-Wayne Fontes
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