Packers, Packers, Packers is all you hear from analysts when asked who will win the upcoming Super Bowl. Pleas note I used the word analyst, which implies they analysed it. However they might as well be a herd of sheep with the notion politically correctness as their shepard.
If you do analyze this you will find it is highly unlikely the Green Bay Packers will repeat as Superbowl Champions. Since the advent of the salary cap only two teams have repeated, Denver Broncos and New England Patriots. Let's break these teams down.
The Denver Broncos, If you recall that team was the earliest team to perfect the zone blocking scheme. To this day, no one seems to do it as well as a Mike Shanahan coached team. If you don't believe me, wait to you see Tim Hightower's numbers this season for the Washington Redskins. It is Shanahan's second season with the team and preseason showed the O-line has started to master it. Hightower will be in the ranks with Olandis Gary, Tatum Bell, Mike Anderson and every other successfull RB's at Denver. Fans of Detroit can appreciate some of those names, they were all busts with us because the Lions front office compared rushing stats at Denver to rushing stats for other teams. Apple and oranges. Denver's running machine in their repeat Super Bowl victories was headed up by Terrell Davis, By far the best zone blocked down hill rusher. Davis rushed for 157 yards and a Super Bowl–record three touchdowns to earn the Super Bowl MVP in the first appearance.
This unstoppable running game "cake" had "icing" named John Elway, arguably one of the best QB's in league history. Doesn't seem fair. The only reason analysts didn't forecast Bronco's dominance was because the the Bronco's had gone to the dance before without success. But that was before Shanahan and his run game.
The Broncos repeated as Super Bowl champions the following season, defeating the Atlanta Falcons (led by Elway's longtime head coach Dan Reeves) in the following Super Bowl, 34–19. Elway was named Super Bowl MVP, completing 18 of 29 passes for 336 yards. Did you catch that? Long time coach Dan Reeves. That's almost as unfair as Tampa Bay's John Gruden facing the Oakland Raiders in Super Bowl XXXVII. They were still running Gruden's offense at Oakland. John Lynch was actually calling out the plays the Raiders were running before the snap. Is there anyone not related to Dan Reeves who knows him better than John Elway? Probably not. As you can see that second Super Bowl season was almost a "perfect storm" and that is what teams in the salary cap age of the NFL need to be repeat Super Bowl Champions. Unless you are the...
New England Patriots, the most dominant team in the last decade. I could rest my case with that but I will proceed. Bill Belicek and Tom Brady (could end it there too).
Tom Brady is one of the most prolific passers in NFL history. He was named the 2007 and 2010 MVP (becoming in the 2010 season the first player to be unanimously chosen as MVP) Brady holds numerous regular season and postseason records, including: most touchdown passes in a regular season (50); highest touchdown-to-interception ratio in a single season (9:1); highest single-game completion percentage, regular season or postseason (26/28, 92.9%); most consecutive pass attempts without an interception (339, still active); most consecutive regular-season home wins (28, still active); highest winning percentage of any quarterback ever during his first 100 starts (76 wins); most completions in one Super Bowl (32); and the longest streak of games with 3 or more touchdown passes (10 games). most career completions in Super Bowl history (100); Brady is the fourth-fastest player to reach 200 career passing touchdowns (116 games). He is the first quarterback in NFL history to have reached said mark with under 100 career interceptions (he had 88 interceptions). So, he's good.
Bill Belichick, arguably the best NFL coach in history. He was named the AP Coach of the Year for the2003, 2007 and 2010 seasons. His defenses will beat you even without talent. Early in his coaching career when he was an assistant with the New York Giants, his defensive game plan from the 20-19 upset of the Buffalo Bills in Super Bowl XXV is in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. They have won eight division titles, including five consecutive titles from 2003 to 2007 (and only missed the playoffs on tiebreakers in 2002 and 2008). The Patriots have also defeated each regular season MVP they have faced in that year's playoffs (Kurt Warner in Super Bowl XXXVI, Peyton Manning and Steve McNair after the2003 Season, Manning in 2004, LaDainian Tomlinson 2006).
So when you lay it all out, the Packers don't seem to stack up. Sure Aaron Rodgers is a great QB and Mike McCarthy is a good coach but pale in comparison to the aforementioned. I also don't like the "and they were injured, wait till they get those players back" . It never seems to work that way in real life. I am not saying the Packers will be bad this year but they are in the one of toughest divisions (NFC North) and their schedule is matched against one of the other toughest divisions (NFC South). Not an impossible schedule but I wouldn't call it a perfect storm.
Another point I would like to make. You can judge the strength of team or program by taking out the best player (usually the QB) and see how they fair. For example, the Lions knocked Aaron Rodgers out of a game with a concussion . Lions won. "Analysts" didn't put much weight into it, "Green Bay had to go to their number two QB". The Lions played that game with their number three QB. Strong teams with great programs can win games without their star QB. The Pittsburgh Steelers held their own when Ben Roethlesberger was serving a suspension. Tom Brady went down for a few games the Patriots still won. The Packers were junk without Rodgers and based on the career of Steve Young and Troy Aikman, Rodgers is a hit away from ever taking a snap again. Not a team that will repeat as Superbowl Champions.
Who do I pick to be Super Bowl Champions? I don't know I am not an "analyst".