NFC North: Can The Green Bay Packers Repeat?
by Mavyrk on Sep 5, 2011 12:01 PM EDT
in NFC North
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PrintThis past February, the Green Bay Packers defied a plethora of injuries and four top-seeded teams to become the second sixth seed in history to take home the Lombardi Trophy. Following a shortened offseason, most experts predict them to be Super Bowl favorites yet again this year. Completely aside from the general respect that Super Bowl champions deserve, the rhetoric behind the support of Green Bay is simple: healthy players and all key pieces returning.
Of course, no one seems to take the notion seriously. Repeat champions are such a rarity in this sport that even repeating once has some labeling you as a "dynasty." With 32 teams all vying for the same prize come winter, even the loser of the Super Bowl has a target on its back in the following season.
Is repeating such a far-fetched notion? Many people like to point out the parity and the long odds staring in the face of the repeat. Yet, paradoxically, more franchises have repeated than the number of franchises that have failed to appear in the Super Bowl in the first place; even taking into account the two newer franchises.
After the jump, let's take a look at the seasons of the defending champions following past Super Bowls.
The Pool
Prior to Super Bowl XLV there were 44 Super Bowl champions, all the way from the Green Bay Packers winning the first Super Bowl after the '66 season to the New Orleans Saints victory in early 2010. 18 franchises have won the Lombardi, 10 franchises have appeared in the game but failed to win, and four franchises have failed to appear in the Super Bowl all together. Eight franchises share 70% of these 44 victories: Pittsburgh; Dallas; San Francisco; New England; Washington; Oakland; New York (Giants); and Green Bay.
How They Fare In The Division
Following their Super Bowl victory, two teams have dropped to the cellar of their division at fifth place, and three have dropped down to fourth place. This accounts for 11.36% of all past Super Bowl Champions; unsurprisingly, none of these teams have qualified for the playoffs. During the salary cap era, only one defending Super Bowl champion (the 1999 Denver Broncos) has fallen below third in their division.
Eight teams (18.18%) came in third place in their division following a Super Bowl victory. Two of these teams managed wild card berths into the playoffs. Nine teams (20.45%) followed up the past year's performance with a second place finish in their division; seven of these teams went back to the playoffs.
That leaves 22 teams, a full 50.00% of all defending Super Bowl champions, that have come back from a Super Bowl victory to lead their division in the following year. Naturally, all of these teams gained playoff berths. What may surprise you is that only two of these 22 teams failed to obtain a first round bye (or played prior to the wild card round.) What this means is that 45.45% of all defending Super Bowl champions not only held a target on their back for a full season, but managed to thrive on that target and post as-good-or-better seasons following the win.
Given what we know about division placements following a Super Bowl victory, we come up with 31 teams (70.45%) that made the playoffs the following year. That accounts for all 22 division winners, seven second place teams, and two third place teams.
Culling The Pool
Eight of the 31 playoff teams (25.81%) played in a wild card game following the Super Bowl. Both third-in-division teams did, as well as three second-in-division teams, and two division winners. Four of these teams lost in that wild card round, but both division winners passed on. That leaves us with 27 (87.10% of playoff teams / 61.36% overall) defending Super Bowl champions that made it to the divisional round of the playoffs.
Of the remaining 27 playoff teams in the divisional round, 10 busted out of the playoffs during that round; notably, one of these losses was to the eventual Super Bowl champions of that year. None of the four remaining teams that played in a wild card round made it past the divisional round. This means 17 (54.84% / 38.64%) teams made it to their respective conference championship following a Super Bowl victory.
As we narrow down to the short list of repeat Super Bowl champions, we face 17 "year after" teams that find themselves vying for another chance at glory in the conference championship. Of these teams we find six that lost in their bid for another Super Bowl berth; four of which lost to the eventual Super Bowl champions of that year. Coincidentally, the Steelers (74-75), 49ers (88-89), and Cowboys (92-93) all had their chance at a three-peat dashed in this fashion.
We find ourselves with 11 (35.48% / 25.00%) defending Super Bowl champions playing again in the Super Bowl. Eight of these teams went on to successfully repeat: the 1967 Packers; 1973 Dolphins; 1975 Steelers; 1979 Steelers; 1989 49ers; 1993 Cowboys; 1998 Broncos; and the 2004 Patriots. That accounts for 25.81% of all defending teams in the playoffs, and 18.18% of all defending teams overall.
Any Given Sunday
What makes the Super Bowl so special and seemingly difficult to attain is the fact that it's played after a single-elimination tournament. This means that, as the Green Bay Packers proved last season, any seed from either conference just needs to stack up between three to four wins in a row and the Lombardi is theirs for the taking.
In 44 years of Super Bowl history, 23 championships have occurred with at least one of the teams having played in the Super Bowl the year before or after. Seven out of these 23 times, both of the teams that year were competitors in either the Super Bowl prior or before. Several times, franchises have been on the cusp of a three-peat with either three Super Bowl wins in four years (Cowboys, Patriots) or three concurrent Super Bowl appearances while only winning two (Dolphins).
Similarly, the number of repeated Super Bowl appearances from losing teams is noteworthy. Outside of Buffalo's four appearances in a row, the Broncos appeared in three Super Bowls in four years during the 80s, as well as the Vikings in the 70s. You need look no further than the New York Jets of these two past seasons, who were a mere four wins away from being defending repeat Super Bowl champions this season.
Final Thoughts
The more I look at these stats, the more convinced I am that repeating Super Bowl champions are not the long odds they're played up to be. Historically, even with targets on their back, even with a shortened offseason and higher notoriety, there seems to be no statistical basis to the claim that a team is less likely to win a Super Bowl the second time around.
There are some statistics that support that theory at face value. For instance, Super Bowl champions have an aggregate 0.803 regular season winning percentage. Defending Super Bowl Champions in counterpoint only have a 0.667 regular season winning percentage; that's the equivalent of roughly 13 wins for Super Bowl champions in a 16 game season, versus 10 wins the year after. This means, no surprise to anyone, that very good teams win the Super Bowl.
Some may look at the average 10-6 season of follow-up seasons and see that as proof of a drop-off, but 10-6 is at least decent odds to make the playoffs (as shown, the majority of defending Super Bowl champions make the playoffs the following year). Once a team is in the playoffs, "any given Sunday" holds as true as it ever does. Every team in the playoffs has a target on their back to their opponents, defending champion or not, and every team is three or four wins away from that glory.
I do know one thing: winning the Super Bowl certainly doesn't make you any less likely to win it the next year. The formula to repeating as a Super Bowl champion is the same formula that went into winning it in the first place: a good team with a dash of luck. The Packers certainly have the first part of that equation handled, but we'll see if the Detroit Lions don't have a little something to say about that dash of luck they'll be needing.
Will the Packers repeat? You be the judge of that. But I'm not sleeping on them. Thanks for reading.
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Good analysis
I agree for the most part. The playoffs are inherently a crapshoot based on a 3 or 4 game sample size. I mean, jesus, ARIZONA was a Santonio Holmes miracle away from being the champs. I give the Packers as good a chance as anybody else in the league to win it all this year. I’m glad we’ve got a rival like that in our division – especially since we’ve proven we can beat them :)
by Hussein Beydoun on Sep 5, 2011 12:06 PM EDT reply actions
wow Mav
That is 1 damn good piece of writing there. I can see why Sean snatched you up off of the waiver wire.
How many lumps you want Doc?
He was on the waiver wire because…
While he may have good size and is very smart, his 40 time is crap!
The pack get a 2 game advantage just from that stadium and location.
.Does your momma have a Big Ass like your head?
/raises hand
Is this going to be on the test?
That is some serious writing Mav. Great job.
Is this what you wanted?
Is this what you had in mind?
Is this what you wanted?
'Cause this is what you're getting.
by chaunce on Sep 5, 2011 12:46 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Great read
Interesting points. You remind me of my analytical buddy, always crunching numbers and percentages whether it’s fantasy football, NFL, or college. Only difference is he’s an annoying f’n cowboy fan and you’re not!
Side note, great to see Mo Morris, Phonz and Keiland are all practicing today!
by Hiyawn_Lions24twenty on Sep 5, 2011 12:48 PM EDT reply actions
great way to dispell the myth
I was skeptical of it – given basic probabilities, here’s my validity!
The Dis-Assembly Line - The unofficial, official name for the next best D-line in football.
Good stuff
I certainly am not sleeping on them. I do think they will have a much more difficult time winning the division. The Lions are a much better team obviously. The Vikings while not much better than last year especially with Harvin as the #1 WR they could still cause some trouble. The Bears will have another year under the Martz system with a slightly upgraded O line. I think the Defense is still something to be a concern for. Bias aside I think the Lions are the Packers biggest threat for the NFC north.
The Profiler, International Consultant – Chestal Region
PCP 4 LIFE
+1
Don’t we at least deserve some cheerleaders yet?
by Hiyawn_Lions24twenty on Sep 5, 2011 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
All the Pack has to do is stay healthy
Something they couldnt do last year, without the giant bulls eye they have on their back right now. This year they get everybodys A game week in and week out.. I have always seen GB as a team that has had a tendency to rest on their laurels and get real complacent. I always feel that a fat happy Pack is Pack that can be had.
"Common Sense, isn't" Solomon Short
I love how you love stats!
Thanks, Mav.
The Lions have 3 key games, in order to have a chance for the North, and the rest will fall on play within the division. The first two at home, and while they aren’t “gimmes,” I can’t help but sensing victories against Chicago on MDF, and over Green Bay on Thanksgiving Day. I believe that the division will get down to the last game at Lambeau, where the Lions haven’t won in this millenium, and many moons beyond that this century… a.k.a. Mission Impossible, or as it’s called in Green Bay… the bye week. In the late 60’s thru the mid-70’s, the Lions were shackled to another dubious streak… losing to the Vkings 13 straight, before that came to an end. For this Lions fan, this Lambeau futility has surpassed the Viking frustration.
It was December 15, 1991, when Mel Gray’s 78 yard punt return sealed the deal, in 21-17 victory, on the balmy 10 degree day, with -7 windchill factors. Erik Kramer had thrown 2 TD passes to Robert Clark, and Barry Sanders ran for 85 yards. We have lost 19 straight since. While Matthew Stafford has had some good games, he has never beaten a North opponent; currently at 0-6. That is going to change this year.
In 2010, the Lions ended a streak of 19 consecutive losses to divisional opponents with a 7-3 victory over the Packers in Detroit. It’s time to end the remaining loss streak. I believe the division will be up for grabs with this game, and will be their biggest game in 20 years, since the NFC Championship Game against Washington. It would be a fitting way to end it, as back in 1991, the victory at Lambeau was the Lions’ 11th of the season, as it will be this season too, giving the Detroit Lions the North crown, and a 1st round bye.
Mmmm… sho is some good cornbread!
by Gee Garold Lembach on Sep 5, 2011 2:31 PM EDT reply actions
simple answer to the question is Yes they can
I believe GB is one of those teams on the cusp of a semi dynasty run. They have their 6th season in the same offense and this is their 3rd in the same defense the continuity is there and the players believe in the system. Rodgers will erase the Favre era and Favre will no longer be known as the Champ for GB, personally that was erased in the SB. They are young and if Healthy are a dangerous team.
Right now the division is kind of wide open but a lot of people think the Bears and Vikings are behind the Packers and Lions in terms of Long term. This also i believe works in their favor to be able to be considered in the Hunt for the title over the next few years. Detroit has to prove its ready to contend in the North otherwise GB really doesnt have a lot of competition to keep the North under their belts for the next 2-3 yrs.
A coward dies a thousands Deaths a soldier dies once ....
Jim Schwartz's contract
What does he have to do this year to get an extension?
Winning Record?
Michael Jordan - 6 rings
Kobe Bryant - 5 rings
The planet Saturn - 7 rings
Lebron James - a headband
I love Donald Driver.
Didn't know
If 7-9 or 8-8 would be good enough. I’m thinking they can at least get to 8-8.
if they're 8-8
it will have to be due to both injuries and a couple very, very close losses for an extension to be warranted IMO
The Dis-Assembly Line - The unofficial, official name for the next best D-line in football.
This Was Excellent
Props, sir.
Michael Jordan - 6 rings
Kobe Bryant - 5 rings
The planet Saturn - 7 rings
Lebron James - a headband
I love Donald Driver.
Ill go ahead and say
If the Packers don’t win the Super Bowl, the Lions will. Deal?
Michael Jordan - 6 rings
Kobe Bryant - 5 rings
The planet Saturn - 7 rings
Lebron James - a headband
I love Donald Driver.
Haha.
I don’t know about all that. But I do see you guys making it to the conference championships. Whether you guys make it back to the SB and repeat is beyond me.
I also don’t see us winning the SB this year, but I see us being in contention for a wild card spot at mid-late-season.
Great post Mav
Impressive. I think the key here is not that the Packers chances decrease due to their victory last year, those chances remain the same, it’s that the odds are so hard to defeat in the first place. Doing it twice is twice as hard.
To be honest.
Once you’ve done it once, I’d say the odds are much better than “making that leap”, if that makes sense. Hence why you see the Colts win 10+ games for a decade straight, Jets going to back-to-back AFC championships, Packers almost repeat in the 90s, Cowboys and Pats do three in four years, Bills go to four straight, etc.
I think once you’re at that level of play, your odds of making it back to (and therein winning) are much higher than your random Cinderella story winning it off on a hot run.
All it takes is a good team. Because frankly, every good team has a target on its back anyways. We all get hyped up to play the Pats, when’s the last time they won the Super Bowl? Or even a playoff game?
by Mavyrk on Sep 6, 2011 4:23 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
In all fairness, the only reason the Colts have been so good is Peyton Manning
9 years straight of making the playoffs is heads and shoulders above everyone else. The next closest team is 3 years running.
Ndamukong Suh - Bringing 50's football back to Motown!
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