SB Nation Detroit Editor's Pick

Making the Leap

by Trysdor on Sep 5, 2011 3:54 AM EDT

Our Detroit Lions face the daunting task this year of overcoming a sub .500 record (one in, of course, a loooong series of sub .500 records) to make the postseason. But as extreme a task as that might seem, it happens almost every single year in the NFL for at least one team, if not more. Without fail, season after season, teams make the leap from also-ran to in the running. In this post, we're going to take a quick look at the last 10 years of NFL football and how many teams have overcome their previous sub .500 record and make their way to the promised land of playoff football.

2010 Season:

Kansas City Chiefs: 2010: 10-6 (AFC WEST CHAMPS) 2009: 4-12. Finish: Eliminated WC Round

Seattle Seahawks: 2010: 7-9 (NFC WEST CHAMPS) 2009: 5-11 Finish: Eliminated Divisional Round.

2009 Season:

Cincinnati Bengals: 2009: 10-6 (AFC NORTH CHAMPS) 2008: 4-11-1 (lol Donovan McNabb) Finish: Eliminated WC Round

Green Bay Packers: 2009: 11-5 (WILD CARD) 2008: 6-10 Finish:Eliminated WC Round

2008 Season:

Miami Dolphins: 2008: 11-5 (AFC EAST CHAMPS) 2007: 1-15 Finish: Eliminated WC Round

Baltimore Ravens: 2008: 11-5 (WILD CARD) 2007: 5-11 Finish: Eliminated AFC Championship

Carolina Panthers: 2008: 12-4 (NFC SOUTH CHAMPS) 2006: 7-9 Finish: Eliminated Divisional Round

Atlanta Falcons: 2008: 11-5: (WILD CARD) 2006: 4-12 Finish: Eliminated WC Round

2007 Season:

Washington Redskins: 2007: 9-7 (WILD CARD) 2006: 5-11 Finish: Eliminated WC Round

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2007: 9-7 (NFC SOUTH CHAMPION) 2006: 4-12 Finish: Eliminated WC Round

2006 Season:

New York Jets: 2006: 10-6 (WILD CARD) 2005: 4-12 Finish: Eliminated WC Round

Baltimore Ravens: 2006: 13-3 (AFC NORTH CHAMPS) 2005: 6-10 Finish: Eliminated Divisional Round

Philadelphia Eagles: 2006: 10-6 (NFC EAST CHAMPS) 2005: 6-10 Finish: Eliminated Divisional Round

New Orleans Saints: 2006: 10-6 (NFC SOUTH CHAMPS) 2005: 3-13 Finish: Eliminated NFC Championship

2005 Season:

New York Giants: 2005: 11-5 (NFC EAST CHAMPS) 2004: 6-10 Finish: Eliminated WC Round

Washington Redskins: 2005: 10-6 (WILD CARD) 2004: 6-10 Finish: Eliminated Divisional Round

Chicago Bears: 2005: 11-5 (NFC NORTH CHAMPS) 2004: 5-11 Finish: Eliminated Divisional Round

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2005: 11-5 (NFC SOUTH CHAMPS) 2004: 5-11 Finish: Eliminated WC Round

Carolina Panthers: 2005: 11-5 (WILD CARD) 2004: 7-9 Finish: Eliminated NFC Championship

2004 Season:

New York Jets: 2004: 10-6 (WILD CARD) 2003: 6-10 Finish: Eliminated Divisional Round

Pittsburgh Steelers: 2004: 15-1 (AFC NORTH CHAMPS) 2003: 6-10 Finish: Eliminated AFC Championship

San Diego Chargers: 2004:12-4 (AFC WEST CHAMPS) 2003: 4-12 Finish: Eliminated WC Round

Atlanta Falcons: 2004: 11-5: (NFC SOUTH CHAMPS) 2003: 5-11 Finish: Eliminated NFC Championship

2003 Season:

Baltimore Ravens: 2003: 10-6 (AFC NORTH CHAMPS) 2002: 7-9 Finish: Eliminated WC Round

Dallas Cowboys: 2003: 10-6 (WILD CARD) 2002: 5-11 Finish: Eliminated WC Round

Carolina Panthers: 2003: 11-5 (NFC SOUTH CHAMPS) 2002: 7-9 Finish: Lost Super Bowl

St. Louis Rams: 2003: 12-4 (NFC WEST CHAMPS) 2002: 7-9 Finish: Eliminated Divisional Round

Seattle Seahawks: 2003: 10-6 (WILD CARD) 2002: 7-9 Finish: Eliminated WC Round

2002 Season:

Cleveland Browns: 2002: 9-7 (WILD CARD) 2001: 7-9 Finish: Eliminated WC Round

Tennessee Titans: 2002: 11-5 (AFC SOUTH CHAMPS) 2001: 7-9 Finish: Eliminated AFC Championship

Indianapolis Colts: 2002: 10-6 (WILD CARD) 2001: 6-10 Finish: Eliminated WC Round

New York Giants: 2002: 10-6 (WILD CARD) 2001: 7-9 Finish: Eliminated WC Round

Atlanta Falcons: 2002: 9-6-1 (WILD CARD) 2001: 7-9 Finish: Eliminated Divisional Round

2001 Season:

Chicago Bears: 2001: 13-3 (NFC CENTRAL CHAMPS) 2000: 5-11 Finish: Eliminated Divisional Round

San Fransisco 49ers: 2001: 12-4 (WILD CARD) 2000 6-10 Finish: Eliminated WC Round

New England Patriots: 2001: 11-5 (AFC EAST CHAMPS) 2000: 5-11 Finish: Super Bowl Champions

There you have it, 10 years of football, and multiple teams making the leap every single year, as many as 5 in one year a few times. Here are some interesting stats.

Out of 120 Playoff Teams over the past decade, 36 of them have been sub .500 the year before. That equates to 30% of all playoff teams over the past 10 years, a full 3 in 10, or an average of 3.6 sub .500 teams making the playoffs every year. Not too shabby.

Of the 36 teams, here are the breakdown of their year before records.

1-15: 1

2-14: 0

3-13: 1

4-12: 5

4-11-1: 1

5-11: 9

6-10: 9

7-9: 10

Here's the breakdown of their finishes:

Lost WC Round: 18

Lost Div Round: 10

Lost Conference Championship: 6

Lost Super Bowl: 1

Won Super Bowl: 1

And since this is getting long, just one last stat. Records of teams that finished the previous year 6-10

15-1: 1

13-3: 1

12-4: 1

11-5: 2

10-6: 4

9-7: 0

So, there it is, all on the table. The good news? It's not at all crazy for a team like the Lions to make the playoffs. The bad news? It's really hard to go deep into the playoffs after you make them. Lets just hope the Lions can channel both their inner 2004 Steelers and 2001 Patriots simultaneously, eh?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Pride of Detroit or its writers. FanPosts are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable fans.

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Comments

Gave you a rec for the research bro

"I'm glad they made Flintstone's vitamins because I used to watch The Flintstones and go, "Man I bet you if I ate that dude, I would be healthy."

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Hello everyone and fuck Mark Sanchez count: 18

by Bighaircut on Sep 5, 2011 4:54 AM EDT reply actions

Yup, me too.

I never met him, but he was family to me... R.I.P. Tom Kowalski We will all miss you.

by TuffLynx on Sep 5, 2011 6:22 AM EDT reply actions

me 3

How many lumps you want Doc?

by davis0169 on Sep 5, 2011 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Nice work

Looking at this list it strikes me as not only possible but even more plausible that we are going to see a playoff game this year if we can do one thing, keep Stafford healthy. Many of these turn-around seasons are predicated on the arrival or come-back of top flight Quarterbacks. Brady, Brees, Rothlesberger, Flacco and to some extent Rodgers.

I’m not sure if it’s the lack of game film that D-Coordinators have or lack of familiarity for the players, but young QB’s having a breakout year tend to lead this list. Here is hoping Stafford stays healthy because I have a feeling he is about to go on this list. Not drinking the Kool-aid here, I’m one of the most skepitcal Lions fans around, but the bad luck has to end at some point, the curse has to end.

by ncbur10 on Sep 5, 2011 7:34 AM EDT reply actions

Solid research.

Very comforting on some levels.

by Mavyrk on Sep 5, 2011 12:46 PM EDT reply actions

That's a Rec for the hard work.

And for hoping we are added to this list.

by -Scott on Sep 5, 2011 12:58 PM EDT reply actions

??

Cincinnati won the NFC North in 2009??

If one of these guys can't take us to the promised land, maybe we should shop for one. You can have the greatest running back of all time, but if you don't have a consistent quarterback, you don't win.
-Wayne Fontes

by KDawg on Sep 5, 2011 2:26 PM EDT reply actions

Sorry...you meant AFC.

by KDawg on Sep 5, 2011 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions

And another...

Baltimore Ravens: 2008: 11-5 (WILD CARD) 2007: 5-11 Finish: Eliminated AFC Championship

I may be reading this wrong, but the Ravens didn’t even make the playoffs in 2007, let alone lose in the AFC Championship game.

by KDawg on Sep 5, 2011 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions

My bad

I WAS reading it wrong…lol. I get it now…they lost the AFC Championship in 2008.

by KDawg on Sep 5, 2011 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Nice Job, Rec'ed yah for your solid research and clean, clear points

Ndamukong Suh - Bringing 50's football back to Motown!

by Evilsmurf on Sep 5, 2011 3:11 PM EDT reply actions

You know what would be interesting to add to this list of big turn arounds

Each teams Strength of Schedule in both years.

I like Wins, Cheese and I also Like Cookies. If you don't. Wow. :P
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by joshsun on Sep 6, 2011 6:47 PM EDT reply actions

BTW

Great work and clean presentation

by joshsun on Sep 6, 2011 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm considering doing a part 2

looking at what changed between the two years, e.g. major additions in personnel, coaching changes, and whatnot. It’s just going to take a little time to put it together.

by Trysdor on Sep 6, 2011 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions

That would be really great

Strength of Schedule (sos) and record in games decided by one touchdown or less for both seasons.

For instance, the Lions went 5-6 (i believe) last season in games decided by 7 or less points. Generally speaking, teams go .500 in these sort of games. So, there is not a lot to be gained in knowledge about the Lions here but outlier teams like KC for example in 2009-2010

2009 KC 2-6 in one TD or less games (sos that season) 133-123-0 for .520 4-12 final rec
2010 KC 4-2 in one TD or less games (sos that season) 125-131-0 for .488 10-6 final rec

What you can take from these numbers.
1) KC’s schedule was more difficult in 09 than 10 and their record reflected that for both seasons.
2) KC’s dismal win/loss in 1 td games in 2009 suggested they would have a positive jump in 2010 in this area resulting in 2-3 more wins which they did

Finally, we can look at KC’s SOS and win/loss in 1 TD games in 2010 and find reason to think their record this coming season will fall back to 2-4 games.

1) KC’s projected win loss in 1 td games or less should average out closer to .500 this coming season resulting in 1 to 3 more loses.
2) Kansas City Chiefs 133-123-0 .520 (sos) suggests more losses coming this season.

by joshsun on Sep 7, 2011 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Just to play devils advocate

If you’re doing a part two, maybe you could see how many 6-10 teams finished with an equal or worse record the following year?

Great article BTW, nice job.

I watch the Detroit Lions and I....

by Lions & Panthers Fan on Sep 8, 2011 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions

It goes without saying

that some 6-10 teams are on the downslope, and some are stalled out. It’s not easy to do, making the playoffs the next year after a losing season. I certainly don’t deny that. I just wanted to show that it does happen, and it happens more often then you think.

by Trysdor on Sep 8, 2011 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Not crazy at all

Dolphins made biggest turn around, as you have shown, in 08 and I don’t believe they had as much talent as we have now. Very plausible. I’m picking 11-5 and winning division.

by Honalulublue on Sep 7, 2011 12:09 AM EDT reply actions

What's interesting is......

How some of those teams just happened to catch lightening in the bottle for the one year, while others developed or continued on developing a sustainable winning program, which is what I believe were doing here.

.Does your momma have a Big Ass like your head?

by delusional on Sep 7, 2011 9:20 AM EDT reply actions