Well I been thinking about the TV Contracts lately and since ESPN just renewed MNF for another set of years of a huge increase of 60% I like to show what the salary caps will look like in future given two sets of assumptions. First is the NFL is expecting an increase of 60% over the last TV contracts. That could be considered a good assumption as the past contracts were a combined 420mil (1982-86), 473mil (87-89), 900mil (90-93), 1.1bil (94-97), 2.2bil (98-05), and 3.085bil (06-13). Now there is another item missing is Direct TV pays 700mil for its coverage.
Now with those past history numbers I think you can see how a 60% increase seams reasonable IMHO. The next item to consider is that each year the salary cap will increase about 5 million a year without TV contract money. So where does that leave us. Well that is after the jump.
Okay in 2013 will be the last season with the old TV contracts. That means with a 5 million increase the next two years you will have a cap of about 130 million in 2013. Now the TV contracts kick in 2014. Using my great math skills, hehe, i figure a 60% increase in TV revenue will put total contracts at 6.056 billion. Given that TV revenue is split 55-45 to the players it will mean a per team salary cap increase of 39 million with just TV contracts. So with a cap of 130 million in 2013 add in the 5 million increase in other revenue and the 39 million with the TV contracts you will have a 2014 cap number of close to 174 million. I only came up with that number as I typed this so my shock is about the same as yours. I should caution that benefits will take some out of that so I assume it would go down to say 170 to 165 million. Still that is huge increase.
What does this mean for our Lions. Well frankly nearly nobody on our present rooster will be signed so its best to wait until next year to see what actually will happen. Needless to say I think the entire minimal pay numbers will be increased by a larger degree. I also want to point out that we could also see a 18 game regular season. With such a huge cap increase the only way to cut down on contracts going crazy will be to increase the size of the roosters. Of course if the minimal's are increased by a good amount that will also serve to cut down the size of big contracts.