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Willie Young: 2012 Starting Left Defensive End?

With the 213th overall pick Martin Mayhew and co. selected defensive end Willie Young, a pick that could prove to be one of biggest robberies of the 2010 draft. Young solidified the left end position providing depth behind starter Cliff Avril, and according to the numbers, provided effectiveness in both the pass and run. With Avril entering unrestricted free agency, and likely to be offered a deal the Lions might not be in a position to match, could Willie Young be the 2012 starting left defensive end?

Cliff and Willie vs. The Pass

Willie Young played in only 28.7% of the pass snaps Cliff Avril played (132 and 460 respectively), but according to Pro Football Focus his Pass Rushing Productivity (PRP - a score based on pressuring the QB with sacks and hits weighted heavier than hurries) was 14.8 compared to Avril's 9.4 from the left side. Without weighting sacks and hurries, Young pressured the QB on 18.9% (25 pressures) of his pass snaps from the left side, more often than Avril's 11.7% rate (54 pressures).

Their sack rate is quite similar. Avril recorded a sack once per 41.8 pass snaps, compared to once per 44 pass snaps for Young. But Young did not force a fumble or record an interception, while Avril forced 6 fumbles and returned an INT for a touchdown.

Cliff and Willie vs. The Run

Young only played in 83 run snaps compared to Avril's 269. Yet once again, Young made the most of his opportunities. He recorded 6 tackles. Avril recorded 9. And Young made a stop (a loss for the offense) on 6% of his run snaps while Avril made a stop on 3% of his. To put their stoppage rates in perspective, Avril ranked 37th of all defensive ends in run stops that played in at least 50% of their team's run snaps. If Young maintained his 6% stoppage rate and played in 50% of the Lions' run snaps, he would've ranked 19th.

Analysis

Avril had an outstanding year against the pass, and his 6 forced fumbles and one-handed interception on Christmas Eve were pivotal in the Lions' 10-6 record. But Avril struggled against the run, ranking 54th of all defensive ends.

Young pressured opposing QBs at an even higher rate than Avril, but he played in only 28.7% of the pass snaps that Avril did. He also scored the second highest PRP of all left ends who played in at least 100 pass snaps, only behind Julius Peppers. He was barely on the field on predictable run snaps, but performed well in that area as well.

No one in the Lions organization wants to let Avril go, after all he's still only 25 years-old, was third in sacks of all 4-3 left ends with 11, and increased his overall impact each year in the NFL. Retaining both these players would solidify the left end position for years to come. But Cliff may cost close to $10 million in 2012, whereas Willie is set to receive a base salary of $506,000. The unanswered question is whether or not Willie Young has the skill, strength, and endurance to maintain his 2011 numbers if asked to be the starter.

Poll
Does Willie Young have the skill set to be a starting defensive end?
Yes, his production shows he is capable.
202 votes
No, he is a backup and performs well because he comes in with fresh legs.
83 votes

285 votes | Poll has closed

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Pride of Detroit or its writers. FanPosts are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable fans.

Comment 27 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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Great work brother Qush.

Interesting piece. Keep up the great work!

by Dustin J Quarrella on Feb 11, 2012 11:13 PM EST reply actions  

well the number don't lie, or do they?

I have to say that I’m more and more impressed with ol Willie. I’m still not convinced he’s full on starter material tho. I believe it would be better for us to move LoJack back to his preferred position. That said, I think Young is indeed a helluva find and will be great rotational player for us.

Now would I want Young in as the starter next year? If Avril prices himself out of a job here, sure. Otherwise tho obviously I’d rather have Avril tho.

Individuals should protect themselves. Governments can't protect individuals from themselves, it's just impossible, otherwise they become a tyranical state. -Ron Paul

by Ee Oulo on Feb 12, 2012 2:56 AM EST reply actions  

Sometimes the stats do lie

while Willie was solid in a back up role, his productivity dropped towards the end of the season. Just by looking at a small stat sample( is what you have with Young), one could make the case for Fluellen to be a DE starter. I believe he ranked #14 as a DE in Pro Football Focus’ PRP Rating system.

Charles Aaron "Bubba" Smith 1945 - 2011 R.I.P.

by JCruize on Feb 12, 2012 3:32 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

Don't get me wrong I love Willie Young

But he’s no Avril they are a perfect compliment to one another. I think it’s great to have a guy like Young to spell Cliff. No way am I ready to just hand him the starting job. Where was he at the end of the season when Cliff was still balling out ? When you find out out let me know.

"People ask is winning really the only thing? My answer to them is my answer to you. Ask Yourself The Damn Question! Is winning the only thing that matters to you? Is it what you want ? Do you want to be remembered as a winner...Or something else? ~ (Dan Lauria as Vince Lombardi)

PCP 4 LIFE

by The Profiler on Feb 12, 2012 8:02 AM EST reply actions  

Young really padded his stats so to speak, using PFF's system here

in the blowout win against Denver. He did have that sack/fumble in the wild card game, but he came from the right side on that play.

Charles Aaron "Bubba" Smith 1945 - 2011 R.I.P.

by JCruize on Feb 12, 2012 5:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Willie's performance to date shows he COULD be a good starting DE.

But at this present time the Lions are using him perfectly. I think he definitely deserves more snaps [say +500 or so] in 2012 and I would be very surprised if he does not get at least that many.

Then we will be talking about whether Lawrence or Willie deserve KVB’s starting spot.

I agree with TP. Willie had some injury issues, missed a couple of games and did not play as well as he had earlier in the year. Hopefully he gets stronger, but I still like Cliff Avril as the starter a lot more.

"I’m sorry for all the people who want us to run the ball 40 times a game, but we’re going to put the ball in No. 9’s hands and he’s going to make plays for us like he did today," Lions coach Jim Schwartz said. Amen to that Jim!

by NorthLeft12 on Feb 12, 2012 8:26 AM EST reply actions  

I agree with all of this.

Willie is being used to his full potential right now. I do believe he can be the guy (probably when KVB retires), but his development is not yet finished, which shows a high ceiling, and is great.

While I don’t want to see Cliff go, it may still happen. If it does, I look to see us pick up a free agent DE or just let Lawrence Jackson carry the load for a year while Young plays rotationally.

'The reality is - the police become necessary in human society, only at that junction in a society where it is split between those who have, and those who ain't got' - Omali Yeshitela

"In the absence of logic it is not uncommon that sanity can only be found by embracing lunacy." – Leonuro, circa 2011

by Nate D. on Feb 12, 2012 12:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Spot on...

Charles Aaron "Bubba" Smith 1945 - 2011 R.I.P.

by JCruize on Feb 12, 2012 4:57 PM EST up reply actions  

And to add...

If Willie Young is put into a starting role…. can he handle getting ‘schemed’ on a weekly basis?

Not every player is a starter.

http://twitter.com/#!/rumbulls

by CLF on Feb 13, 2012 11:55 AM EST up reply actions  

I think your point is one that needs to examined a bit more. Just because a player gets more playing time does not mean his production will increase in the same. Maybe hes a role player best because he cant adapt as quickly to how teams play him or he just doesnt have the experience to be counted on for a full season yet because even as a depth player he could not avoid injury for the whole season.

They did it for Savy, they did it for Horton, they did it for each other, they did it for us. I give you the 2011 Stanley Cup Champions....The Boston Bruins!!

My Lions lost to the Saints who are clearly the better team. (This is what happens when you back your team and they lose),

by beachguy113 on Feb 13, 2012 2:23 PM EST up reply actions  

in my mind i was posing that very question, “does willie young have the skill set to be a starter?” i tried to just put their numbers out there, but willie’s sample size wasn’t as big as cliff’s so some projecting occurred.

willie’s numbers were better though, but yes, with a much smaller sample size. for what stats provide it’s interesting….

i do think willie young has shown he can be a good defensive end in the nfl. better than avril? probably not at this point, but with the money issues the lions may be looking at either signing someone else in the secondary, keeping avril, or keeping tulloch. hopefully they find a way to get all three things.

by Qush Quarrella on Feb 14, 2012 2:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Ah, you've hit the problem with Avril's contract

Willie is a comparable player to Avril and isn’t a run liability. He certainly deserves more snaps as does Lojack. Which means that Avril’s snaps are going to be reduced considerably.

Even if you love Avril, how can you pay him 8 mil while, at the same time, reducing his snaps by a third? I can see paying Avril 5 mil which, if you go by snaps, comes to about the 8 mil salary. Ideally, these guys are a perfect combo to share snaps but you can’t pay Avril a lot more to do less work.

I think these stats reflect the truth. This is Willie’s second year and you will find that Avril’s numbers are similar in the second year. Avril takes off in his 3rd year and Willie, if given the snaps should also. I want them both but I don’t believe there will be any drop off if Willie steps in for Avril. If we then can find someone to step in and give Willie some relief.

If you look at Avril’s numbers and Willie’s

by rekar on Feb 12, 2012 12:46 PM EST reply actions  

I have to believe that most Lion fans want Cliff to remain here in Detroit...

i am one of those fans but at the same time not if the price isnt right. We all have seen what Mayhew is capiable of some question the contracts of KVB and Nate but that was an 0-16 team hungry for talent. The tables have turn d in Motown and hopefully guys like Cliff Jeff Stephen and Eric are more focus d on a ring with a team they help d make better and not just a payout. Cliff Stephen and Eric are still young and could do a 3 yr contract giving us a break in hopes for a ring in exchange. I have to believe Jeff will be back if Jim and Martin want him. He is at the end of his career a career that has took place all Michigan. (H.S Col and Pro)

" Maybe for a writer...but i am sure most of you can tell i am not a writer". det32

by SmittyJ on Feb 12, 2012 2:35 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

this is what happens to good teams

good write up

I have to say I voted that he’s still more of a development rotational player right now. He is good when he comes in but I also feel that he’s still a bit undersized for the left side. I believe if Avril isnt in Detroit they will go w/ Jackson over Young first for that starting position.

Something tells me that keeping Avril will be where and how the sacrifice happens. If he is re signed I see some movements happening and some unexpected twists. I also believe that he will no longer be a Lion (pending what he’s asking as they dont have a lot of wiggle room even w/ restructures )and we ll be seeing more Jackson Young and Suh rotating that side especially if Fairley turns out to be that DT they hoped he would be.

by JaiGaiaAries on Feb 12, 2012 4:36 PM EST reply actions  

Is there a particular reason one of them can't move to RE?

I love KVB, and LoJack is an exciting player, but KVB is trending down for his career, and Lojack is seemingly always hurt, moving the two of them to the backup role and putting both Young and Avril on the line at the same time could be a drastic improvement.

"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.

by TheLoneDavid on Feb 12, 2012 5:37 PM EST reply actions  

This is what I was thinking

I think KVB’s the solution in terms of cap space (unfortunately) but even if he stays with the team, he shouldn’t be playing as much as he was.

"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz

"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching

by David Tokarz on Feb 13, 2012 11:33 AM EST up reply actions  

i agree...somewhat.

i don’t know what happens in the Lions locker room, but i imagine cutting the captain of the defense and a guy with extreme work ethic would probably rub a lot of teammates the wrong way. plus, kvb’s production wasn’t too far off from avril’s. i think even though it might be a better financial decision to cut kvb’s contract, i don’t see it happening.

the guy i think should go to make room is corey williams. he’s set to receive something like 5 million next year. i think we could get by with suh, SLH, and fairley.

by Qush Quarrella on Feb 14, 2012 2:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I like that better

But I’d wonder if the front office tries to talk KVB into retiring.

"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz

"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching

by David Tokarz on Feb 14, 2012 5:15 PM EST up reply actions  

personally I think that's a bit premature

I think he’s got plenty left in the tank if used as the rotation guy not the lead dog. I do hope they transition him into retirement with a staff position whenever he’s ready to take that step.

Individuals should protect themselves. Governments can't protect individuals from themselves, it's just impossible, otherwise they become a tyranical state. -Ron Paul

by Ee Oulo on Feb 15, 2012 1:44 AM EST up reply actions  

Call me crazy but...

I think LoJack and Willie will both fill in just fine with the loss of Avril if that were the case. The fact is that Suh and Williams demand so much attention on the inside that it gives a lot of 1 on 1 match ups with the DE’s and the RT/LT’s. Most teams don’t have 4 solid starters plus 3-4 solid back ups like we do on the DLine and teams are prepared to double team the better player while trusting that the weaker dude won’t produce 1 on 1. Perfect expample is when the production of Cory Redding dramatically dropped after we lost Shaun Rogers… I don’t even remember who the hell we had on the line after that but we had absolutely no Defensive presure. Granted Avril did stand out as a rookie on our 0-16 teams D-Line but it was very little to talk about.

Willie is on his way but he is still raw and LoJack will get the nod.

by Budro2010 on Feb 12, 2012 11:31 PM EST reply actions  

The big difference is the forced turnovers.

Some players just have a knack for it, and Avril is one of those players. It may be premature to say this, but I think Avril could be labeled a “game changer”, which is not something easy to come by. Young is a very good DE, but still has a lot to prove, imo.

Did you guys see the size of that chicken?

by studmo on Feb 13, 2012 9:43 AM EST reply actions  

One thing that has been over looked

is that Young is actually older than Cliff.

Charles Aaron "Bubba" Smith 1945 - 2011 R.I.P.

by JCruize on Feb 13, 2012 3:56 PM EST reply actions  

Well, it shows that the Lions are staring to gain some real depth.

I am happy to hear that we have young guys that are developing well and ca challenge for playing time. While I really like Cliff Avril, he is in a difficult position with the Lions if he expects to make big money. The Lions have the horses to replace Cliff if push comes to shove. I am just happy that if Cliff jumps ship, we have a clear plan to replace him.

Listen to the Two Bro's Talk podcast!

by TuffLynx on Feb 14, 2012 5:11 AM EST reply actions  

Lions will have to sacrifice someone, but who

Arvil will require 9-10 mil per year, it seems he will be the player the Lions will let walk away considering the salary cap. I can see Mathis coming in as a FA at 4mil and performing just as well and re-signing Tulloch(you know Tully will want 5 mil a year), also acquiring a FA CB with the extra money saved from NOT signing Avril. It only makes sense especially if the Lions re-sign Backus(another 5mil) as they claim they want him back this season. Suh and Fairley require double teams which free up Young, Jackson, KVB and whoever else the Lions sign @ DE, only making those players better. Avrils stats have gotten better with the presences of SUH and Fairley, even tho Fairley hasn’t been healthy. I can only emagine a 100% healthy SUH and Fairley playing together, any decent DE will enjoy a very good year with Detroit.

by Suhfan on Feb 23, 2012 10:02 AM EST reply actions  

Mathis...

Is also a well disciplined player that has won a Superbowl, good attitude, good character person and would be excellent for the Lions on and off the field, and for half the price of Avril would be a good pick up…IMO.

by Suhfan on Feb 23, 2012 10:24 AM EST reply actions  

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