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The Cliff Avril Question and other Lions odds & ends *SALARY CAP EDITION*

Let me start off by saying that every fiber of my 29 year old body is a Lions fan, and has been since I first started following them in 1991. This is an exciting time for me, because for the first time in my adult life, you won't hear laughter after one mentions 'Lions' and 'playoff's' (playoffs?) in the same sentence. We are a relevant team again, and that is a very proud feeling. That being said, we are now in an offseason where the problems we face as a team are, in a sense, good problems. The hands down number one issue facing the Lions this offseason (besides Megatron's contract, but that's different) is what is going to go on with Cliff Avril after his very successful season? He wants to stay, and he wants a long-term deal.

However, the Lions seem to want to place the franchise tag on him, of which Avril is thoroughly resisting to the point of threatening to not report. Oy, yoy yoy. Well, I have a solution.

(more after the jump)

Star-divide

Let him go.

The man is going to get paid wherever he goes. I'm certainly no GM or talent evaluator by any means, but from a meticulous fan's perspective, I say that there are more pressing needs especially given the current precarious state of the salary cap situation. So let's get to the nitty-gritty, shall we?

Willie Young was a virtual unknown when the Lions drafted him in the 7th round of the 2010 draft. From that preseason on, whenever he plays, he simply always seems to make plays and getting a strip sack or something. The man hustles. He simply makes plays. I'd be content with having him step in full time with Lawrence Jackson and (insert player here) spelling both him and KVB who certainly doesn't seem to be slowing down. The value here would be simply stunning.

All that being said, I believe that we should, if at all possible, (and CALL ME CRAZY!) draft a stud DE in the first round. I'm sure we could get some good value at our pick and not get a reach. I could live with this situation rather than a disgruntled DE being paid top dollar. Corey Williams could also be axed to make room for Sammie Lee Hill and a healthy Nick Fairley, who I'm sure we've yet to see his full potential. Andre Fluellen could once again be kept around to play both positions if needed.

Next, it is absolutely IMPERATIVE that the Lions re-sign Stephen Tulloch. This should be the first priority hands down, the man was an excellent QB for the defense and made plays. I also believe that Bobby Carpenter has made enough plays to justify being a legitimate starter alongside Tulloch and Deandre Levy. I just frankly was never sold on Justin Durant and think that he doesn't have the upside Carpenter has. I'm looking forward to seeing what Doug Hogue has.

Beyond this, though, I could see the team moving on from Eric Wright, Stefan Logan, Nate Burleson and *sigh* Jason Hanson. Eric Wright is just too Jekyll-and-Hyde for my liking and I would like somebody like say....a Cortland Finnegan. Finnegan and Houston would be a fine tandem, with Aaron Berry and Alphonso Smith as the nickels where they excel.

Louis Delmas and Amari Spievey need to really step their game up, in particularly Spievey. He was downright horrible in coverage this year, even though I love how he's always delivering the big hits and is a great asset to the run defense.

Delmas hasn't had a pick in the past two seasons, and that kind of worries me. I know he's had injury troubles but still in 29 games (including playoff) no picks as a safety? I find that tough to swallow.

Chris Harris should go because his name is synonymous with 'toast' and John Wendling is a special teams STUD who should stay there, unless in cases of emergency like when he had to step in a S for a few games this year, but he's terrible there.

Offensively, I think that Titus Young has become everything the Lions expected when they drafted him. This, I feel, could make Nate Burleson expendable for salary cap reasons. Maurice Stovall and/or Rashied Davis could be kept as a complement due to their abilities to also play special teams, but I'd be open to seeing a more legit journeyman WR option at the three spot. Unfortunately, as much as I like Stefan Logan, I think that his worth has been greatly diminished with the moving of the kickoffs and as a result, I think he could be a roster casualty to free up another precious roster spot.

I'm content with our TE spot because Brandon Pettigrew, Tony Scheffler, and Will Heller make a great trio that needs little, if any improvement.

On to the O-line....the year in/year out hands down most criticized area of the Lions. Stephen Peterman has to go. It's really getting old to see plays go nowhere on that part of the line, which leads me to say that their must be an heir-apparent to Dominic Raiola that needs to be groomed. I love Raiola, but we have to face the facts. I don't think that Dylan Gandy is the answer, or anymore than a stand-in guy. Is Dan Gerberry? The draft? Stay tuned, this could be interesting. Rob Sims has played exceptionally well at LG and there's no reason to consider replacing him. He stays. That leaves us with Jeff Backus, Jason Fox, and Gosder Cherilus.

It seems as if one could tap Fox with a feather and he'll be hurt. This guy has a long way to go to prove himself, even though I do admit he has a stellar upside. Backus is Mr. Dependable, but needs an heir-apparent like yesterday. I believe that this can be achieved through free agency. Cherilus is a hulk, but NEEDS to get consistent. When he's consistent, he's an absolute mauler. However, when he's off his game, he's off his game. Bad. He'll keep his job considering there's no better option anywhere on the roster than him for RT.

Matthew Stafford, Shaun Hill, Drew Stanton? Nothing to see here, move along. Bar none most solid quarterbacking trio in the league. No question.

Running backs.

With the wild emphasis on concussions, I think it's time to throw in the towel on Jahvid Best. Seriously, the guy is risking more than he realizes on if he keeps playing or not. It's time to give the torch back to Kevin Smith as our lead back, and monitor the continual developments of our younger (and healing) backs such as Keiland Williams, Mikel Leshoure, and Joique Bell. Maurice Morris had a decent year, but once again, I think it's time to move on

Finally....Special Teams.

I've been watching Jason Hanson for a solid 20 years. I remember watching the 1992 draft when Hanson was drafted and saying aloud: "Kicker in the second round? Are they nuts?" Apparently not after guys like the Oakland Raiders who take kickers in the FIRST round. Unfortunately, it's time to move on from him and get in somebody younger. I hate saying it, but we've got to. It's a necessity. As far as long snapper and punter? Don Muhlbach and Ben Graham I thought were exceptional, and should stay.

Feel free to pick this all apart, I'm a literal zombie right now as I work nights. But I look forward to hearing your input. :)

-Dan

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Pride of Detroit or its writers. FanPosts are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable fans.

Comment 23 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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I'm not trying to rain on your parade,
he simply always seems to make plays and getting a strip sack or something.

but I don’t think Willie has ever had a forced fumble. Not that he couldn’t be a playmaker, but this may be the difference between him and Avril.

Did you guys see the size of that chicken?

by studmo on Feb 20, 2012 10:44 AM EST reply actions  

forced fumbles are based so much on luck

it is just not a stat you can rely on for comparison.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-There are approximately 45 cats and dogs for every person born.
-Only 1 out of 10 dogs born ever get a home.
-Only 1 out of 12 cats born ever find a home.
-Approximately 800 dogs & cats are KILLED each HOUR in the United States, because there are not enough homes for them!

by joshsun on Feb 20, 2012 12:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Not really

A lot of it is technique and some players like Cliff Avril have a knack for it

House of Spears | My Detroit Lions/NFL Blog

by Latif Masud on Feb 20, 2012 1:00 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

mark my words

His forced fumbles number will dip dramatically next season, playing for us or not.

It is not a stat of effort, but effort does help. It is not a stat of skill, but skill does help. It is luck. Swinging your arm around at the correct moment to catch the QBs arm to knock the ball lose is not skill. It is luck. It is swinging over and over at that arm hoping you hit it eventually.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-There are approximately 45 cats and dogs for every person born.
-Only 1 out of 10 dogs born ever get a home.
-Only 1 out of 12 cats born ever find a home.
-Approximately 800 dogs & cats are KILLED each HOUR in the United States, because there are not enough homes for them!

by joshsun on Feb 20, 2012 2:28 PM EST up reply actions  

So are sacks and tackles and most other statistics.

You have to be in the right place at the time to make any play in the NFL. Things have to fall into place. And the difference between being in the right place at the right time and missing that FF and being in the right place at the right time and leading the league at it is… well, skill.

"You've got to respect your opponent, no matter who it is. You respect him best by going out there and beating him up." - Calvin Johnson

by Mavyrk on Feb 20, 2012 2:51 PM EST up reply actions  

with a whole bunch of luck thrown in to spare.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-There are approximately 45 cats and dogs for every person born.
-Only 1 out of 10 dogs born ever get a home.
-Only 1 out of 12 cats born ever find a home.
-Approximately 800 dogs & cats are KILLED each HOUR in the United States, because there are not enough homes for them!

by joshsun on Feb 20, 2012 4:35 PM EST up reply actions  

You are just plain wrong on this.

The “chop” on the QB’s arms is something these guys are taught to do. It is a matter of timing, reach, and taking [and keeping] the proper angle around the Tackle. Yes, there is a lot of effort involved, like anything on a football field, but to put it down to luck would mean that anyone on the D Line could cause a fumble when they sack the QB. The fact is they don’t. Cliff has 14 FF in his career and I would bet that almost all of them are when he sacks the QB.
Charles Johnson has five forced fumbles in his career with the same number of sacks as Cliff.
Justin Smith has the same number of forced fumbles as Cliff with over twice as many sacks and five times as many tackles as Cliff.
Now, those two guys are both outstanding players [Smith is the best defensive player in the NFL by a mile IMO] but they don’t have the skill set that Cliff has and takes advantage of to cause fumbles like that.

DEs that can do this consistently are premier pass rushers who can explode off the line and get to the QB quickly. That’s why pass rushers like Cliff are valued so highly.

"I’m sorry for all the people who want us to run the ball 40 times a game, but we’re going to put the ball in No. 9’s hands and he’s going to make plays for us like he did today," Lions coach Jim Schwartz said. Amen to that Jim!

by NorthLeft12 on Feb 20, 2012 3:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Sorry, I disagree

I have always looked at Forced fumbles as luck. Everyone is swatting at that ball, all over the field.

Some players get luck more than others.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-There are approximately 45 cats and dogs for every person born.
-Only 1 out of 10 dogs born ever get a home.
-Only 1 out of 12 cats born ever find a home.
-Approximately 800 dogs & cats are KILLED each HOUR in the United States, because there are not enough homes for them!

by joshsun on Feb 20, 2012 4:35 PM EST up reply actions  

As the saying goes,

you have to be good to get lucky. Avril is good. There is luck involved in everything. Will his numbers be the same every year? Of course not. However, if you compare him to several players over the course of the next, say, 5 – 7 yrs., I would bet that he will be one of the top players in the forced fumbles catagory, particularly if he stays with Detroit.

Did you guys see the size of that chicken?

by studmo on Feb 20, 2012 4:59 PM EST up reply actions  

100% agree

he is good. Nothing more. This season is a statistical blip in a contract year. Hello Corey Redding 2.0.

Pass.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-There are approximately 45 cats and dogs for every person born.
-Only 1 out of 10 dogs born ever get a home.
-Only 1 out of 12 cats born ever find a home.
-Approximately 800 dogs & cats are KILLED each HOUR in the United States, because there are not enough homes for them!

by joshsun on Feb 20, 2012 6:35 PM EST up reply actions  

You watch the playoff game?
but I don’t think Willie has ever had a forced fumble

Charles Aaron "Bubba" Smith 1945 - 2011 R.I.P.

by JCruize on Feb 20, 2012 7:23 PM EST up reply actions  

I stand corrected,

and yes, I did watch the game.

Did you guys see the size of that chicken?

by studmo on Feb 20, 2012 8:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Willie had a couple of FFs in the preseason of his rookie year.

That is what caught everyone’s eye and forced the Lions to keep him on the roster all year, even though he hardly played.

If they would have put him on the practice squad he would have been snapped up by another team.

"I’m sorry for all the people who want us to run the ball 40 times a game, but we’re going to put the ball in No. 9’s hands and he’s going to make plays for us like he did today," Lions coach Jim Schwartz said. Amen to that Jim!

by NorthLeft12 on Feb 21, 2012 7:40 AM EST up reply actions  

Move on from Hanson?

Why?
Just ‘cause he’s old?
Not with you on getting rid of Hanson. Perhaps he’s dropped off a bit from the automatic Hanson of the past, but he is still one of the NFL’s most dependable kickers.
Who do you think we should get?
Dave Rayner?

Sure, bring somebody in to compete. I bet Jason beats them out.

"Life's hard. It's even harder when you're stupid."
- John Wayne

by UndaDawg on Feb 20, 2012 11:07 AM EST reply actions  

I have no problem with Hanson getting a large salary.

I think as long as he is playing at a high level (A) He’s worth it, and (B) this organization should show him respect for the 20 years of stellar play as well as his great attitude. He’s been nothing but a class act for his entire time here. I don’t like logistics like a fear of the cap to get in the way of what’s right. The cuts can come from somewhere else IMHO.

That said, I don’t think Hanson would have a problem with re-negotiation and taking a paycut. If this team wins a superbowl without #4 I will be sad. Well, okay maybe not. If the Lions won the Superbowl I’d be freakin’ out and extremely happy and most likely drunk for an entire week. (“Anybody know where my pants are?”) but it would be bittersweet. I want to get Hanson a ring. It ain’t easy making the HOF as a kicker…

I understand this is mostly based in my emotion and the business side of things will outweigh any attempt to do right by Hanson, but if we let him go and he ends up getting on another team because he is still playing at a high level, I will puke in my shoes and wear them to work.

"Life's hard. It's even harder when you're stupid."
- John Wayne

by UndaDawg on Feb 20, 2012 12:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Unfortunately

The NFL is a business and its not like Hanson played for free for those 20 years. I remember him consistently making big salaries for a kicker, but he needs to take a serious paycut right now help this team out.

House of Spears | My Detroit Lions/NFL Blog

by Latif Masud on Feb 20, 2012 1:01 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree Latif.

Jason was not performing at top five level in 2011. Jason has the third highest CAP hit [just over $3.2M] among NFL kickers for 2012 .
LINK:http://www.spotrac.com/top-salaries/nfl/cap-hit/kicker/

Jason had an 83% FG conversion rate which was tied for 18th among kickers who attempted more than 20 field goals. Not very impressive. He was tenth [at 71%]among all kickers on the +50 yard field goals too.

He did hit all of his extra points and was okay on his kick offs too. I hope the Lions extend him another year, and Jason cuts his 2012 salary by a million or so.

"I’m sorry for all the people who want us to run the ball 40 times a game, but we’re going to put the ball in No. 9’s hands and he’s going to make plays for us like he did today," Lions coach Jim Schwartz said. Amen to that Jim!

by NorthLeft12 on Feb 20, 2012 1:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Offense is good to go.....

I like Burelason to stay. He is a decent number two – three guy depending on where you put Young who played above expectations this seasons, especially after he got more experience with the pro game. I believe our offense is good to go, except some tinkering on the o-line and depending on what happens with our running back situation. Does Leshoure have the explosiveness after the injury? And will Best be ready to go and not get knocked around. He is such a game breaker who we missed on offense. Kevin Smith, as long as he is healthy let’s keep him as well.

I’m fine with letting Cliff go, if he goes to another team and turns into a 15 sack guy then either our scheme wasn’t putting him into the situation to make plays or we dropped the ball and he is in fact a top DE but I won’t be that concerned to much if we don’t retain Cliff. Our defensive backfield is an issue, can they stay healthy? If they are healthy, can they perform on the field to help us win games?

by mhout005 on Feb 20, 2012 11:42 AM EST reply actions  

Nice write up. Thanks for sharing.

A couple of disagreements:

- if you plan to make Willie the starting DE and have Lawrence take more snaps, do not draft a DE in the first round. I would draft one later or pick up a lower cost FA for depth only.
- sorry, but KVB is slowing down. He is a great team leader, but his play on the field is rapidly declining.
- I don’t disagree with axing Corey, but we may want to consider upgrading our depth there too with a draftee or low cost FA after he is gone.
- a QB trio? Sorry, one of Stanton or Hill has to go. Sounds like Hill will take a pay cut and stay on for another two years as the back up. Lions should get a UDFA QB and put him on the practice squad.
- for a team that really depends on the passing game, the Lions should keep Nate for at least another year. Davis and Stovall are not adequate back ups to Calvin and Titus.
- I hope the Lions keep Tulloch, but by no means should they get in a bidding war for him. Draft a replacement early if the asking price is too high.

"I’m sorry for all the people who want us to run the ball 40 times a game, but we’re going to put the ball in No. 9’s hands and he’s going to make plays for us like he did today," Lions coach Jim Schwartz said. Amen to that Jim!

by NorthLeft12 on Feb 20, 2012 11:59 AM EST reply actions  

I disagree with quite a few things.

Vehemently.

1. Avril is a good player. Is he worth 10+ mil? No. But I’m sure everyone here would love to keep him if the price is right. I’m sure the Lions want to keep him too.

2. I’ve said all I can say about Eric Wright. The Lions are going to keep him if possible, no doubt. Burleson is the team leader. Have you ever seen him get the team fired up before the game? It gets me fired up. And he’s quite a good receiver. I don’t see how releasing him helps anything. At all. Ever. Hanson has already proven he can still play. He’s staying.

3. Chris Harris is depth, and you don’t release decent depth. What’s up with you wanting to get rid of everyone?

4. Ugh. The old, “Peterman needs to go because I don’t like him” argument. Do some homework. He was solid this past year.

5.

Cherilus is a hulk, but NEEDS to get consistent. When he’s consistent, he’s an absolute mauler. However, when he’s off his game, he’s off his game.

Just like everyone else in the world? Even Megatron has off games.

6. If Jahvid Best can play, he will. I think both the F.O. and Best know if he can play, I’ll let them decide, thanks.

Aaron Berry > Eric Berry

When anyone says, "I’ll kick your ass" its implied that they’ll be using Hanson’s leg. -Leonuro

I have a twitter: Follow Me

by Bighaircut on Feb 20, 2012 1:26 PM EST reply actions  

Thanks for the feedback guys!!!

Keep it coming!

I’m not wanting to get rid of anyone per se’, I’m just merely pointing out where there could be better options.

And like I said, I like Avril I really do, but I feel he is an average to above-average DE who isn’t worth the top-tier bucks yet.

As far as Peterman, I’m not saying I don’t like him. It’s just that sometimes he’s a statue out there.

-Dan

RIP Tom 'Killer' Kowalski.

You will never be forgotten and will be greatly missed by Lions fans, friends, and family worldwide.

by crashlion on Feb 20, 2012 5:44 PM EST reply actions  

I completely agree with resigning Tulloch.

He is a defensive stalwart

Did you guys see the size of that chicken?

by studmo on Feb 20, 2012 9:48 PM EST up reply actions  

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