Cliff Avril #PayDaMan

Does anyone use Internet Explorer 9 to write fanpost ? I can’t use the visual view and the layout dosen’t look right after I post it.

He is no where near the same level as these guys. Not even close. One great season does not make a career. Those players have been producing at an extremely high level for longer. Seriously, everyone of these guys has multiple double digit sack seasons. One of them had twice as many sacks as Avril this season.

I guess people around here want to have Corey Redding 2.0 on our roster.

I would feel a hell of a lot better about giving him top 10 money if he had a second outstanding season, that was not in a contract year.

Did you know, 41% of Avril’s QB pressures, 45% of his sacks and 50% of his forced fumbles this season came against the Bears and Minny. Two teams that are not exactly renowned for their right tackle play (aka, their RTs SUCK!). One the flip side of the coin, he had 4 total pressures against GB and one against Atlanta and none against Dallas, teams with above average RT play.

Sorry, If I am going to break the bank on a player, I want that player playing the best against the highest competition. Not padding stats against weak competition and disappearing against playoff teams.

But mostly, good NFL GMs are paying you for what they think you will do over the life of the contract. Not for what you have already done.

And Cliff has more upside than any of the DEs that are currently available.

My ass, you pay for the seasons you will have the player under contract. You make assumptions based on prior performance and weigh the value.

I simply don’t see Cliff Avril as an essential cog to this defense, and to pay him as such hurts the rest of the team. Case closed.

He’s an OK guy and a great team player, but hopefully he goes and gets paid elsewhere.

You can’t hold the way they structured the deal, or otherwise saddled themselves, into any real discussion of what Avril deserves. For example how does the Colts folly of obligating themselves to the tune of 19m cap hit for Freeny come into play for Avril? To get a better feel for the breakdown perhaps it’s better to look at the overall structure of the deals. To be fair, I haven’t looked at this info as a whole so will be curious to see how it turns out.
Freeney 6yr/ 72m (31m guaranteed) 15m signing, 15m 2nd yr bonus. An oddly structured deal with half up front and a large part at the back. ’12 pay 14m (carrying 5m/yr cap hit on bonuses too)

Dumervil 6yr/61m (43m guaranteed) 3m signing bonus. Deal is quite frontloaded. He’ll be making 2m less per year every year (and likely bitching about it and getting something done in the last years) – ’12 pay 14m

Hali 5yr/ 57.5m (35m guaranteed) 15m signing bonus Pretty much front loaded deal to use up cap space this year and next. ’12 pay 11.25m (+3m cap hit)

Allen 6yr/ 73m (31 guaranteed) 15.5m signing, 4m 2nd yr bonus. after the bonuses it was somewhat backloaded contract with 12 being 2nd largest hit. ’12 pay 11.6 (3.25 cap hit)

Peppers 6yr/ 84m (42 guaranteed) 6.5 signing, 12.5m 1st yr, 10.5m 2nd yr bonuses (so a whopping 5m/yr cap hit on bonuses) heavily backloaded contract with 16.6 in base pay last year alone! It starts getting expensive (and probably unmanageable) in ’13 going up to 12.9 base (and can have other bonuses earned too!) ’12 hit 8.9m

In short, ’12 base pay:
Freeney 14m
Dumervil 12m
Hali 11.25
Allen 11.6
Peppers 8.9

My conclusion? Beats me… I am thinking Avril hasn’t yet proven himself to be at the caliber of any of those players so I don’t know what any of this has to do with the situation. I’m sure he would like to have his pay based on the pay these guys get. I get the point the new contract has to be based on what they will do more than what they have done. Sure, the past can be a prediction for the future in many cases and all, but still what can they expect to get out of him during the term they plan on keeping this next contract.

Now even if they decide he’s worth some of these very lucrative contracts, how do they make it happen? Of these contracts you list there are kind of 2 types, very front loaded, very backloaded base pay with high cap hit spread out every year. Perhaps Dumervils stands out a little differently since it didn’t contain much of a bonus at all but yet it is kind of front loaded.
If they go with a backloaded contract (assuming Avril will even accept it) is he worth leveraging the future for? My answer would be this is the only way they could approach a high dollar deal with him but it will have to have a good chunk of bonus pay spread out chipping at the cap every year.
The other option being more upfront just can’t happen. If it were to happen who would you want to get rid of? Or how much would you advocate spreading out as cap hits by restructuring people.

I know they accountant types in the FO can do some fancy moves to make things happen. It’s just a question of are they in a win now mode and willing to leverage hard on the future? Or are they in a slow build it to last mode? I tend to think they are more inclined toward the later…

The question for you. Let’s say you’re in the FO and want Avril, and agree to the big ticket type contracts like the ones you posted. Who on the team now would you be willing to part ways with to add up to a savings of even half of his cap hit (let’s assume a 12m a year cap hit)??
I’m serious, if people have to go to keep Avril, who would you be willing to part ways with?

Now explain to me how we are going to #PayDaMan.

We are currently $2.8 million over the cap according to Kevin Siefert. That number does not include the free agent signings that need to be done. Now you can borrow $1.5 million from the 2014-2017 league years and roll forward the $1.3 million cap surplus from 2011 in order to offset the $2.8 million that we are already over the cap. That means you are essentially starting at a zero cap situation.

In addition to singing Avril, the Lions will need to sign Tulloch and a cornerback. The Lions also look like they are intending to bring Jeff Backus back.

So let’s hypothetically say that we can make deals that feature these cap hits for 2012

Cliff Avril $8 million (part of a long term deal)
Stephen Tulloch – $5 million
Eric Wright – $4 million
Jeff Backus – $3 million

I think all of those cap hits are pretty reasonable given the contracts that these guys will demand. That is a total of $20 million and you are not going to get that much money from renegotiating Calvin Johnson’s contract.

Also keep in mind that the Lions have about fifteen other guys they need to sign as well. That includes names like Shaun Hill, Kevin Smith, Rashied Davis, Leonard Davis, Deandre Levy, Bobby Carpenter, Sammie Lee Hill, and Andre Fluellen,

So how do you propose that we get the cap room to do all of this? How many of these guys are you willing to sacrifice in order to keep Avril?

It is not a question of want to but can we. This is going to be an off season that is all about finances and the cap. Let’s hope some “trades” that Mayhew eluded to happen to clear off cap room and bring in some young affordable talent or future draft picks so that there is space to do the things that we want.

There is too much money tied up on the d-line something will have to budge and I think they are going to draw it out as long as it takes (I guess Avril will get “tagged” and that will give the FO more time, hopefully some trades on draft day). This is where the Fairley pick had me scratching my head last year. How will they be able to keep the team under the cap with so much committed to the DL. Someone is probably going to get traded that we like and will do well elsewhere. There will be alot of, “I told you so” people out there. The question is what can we get in return? Any other good GM will know that we are desperate.

Cliff Avril is about to become Kevin Smith V.2…Don’t let that happen please lol

It doesn’t matter that most of us agree that he deserves to be paid.
Where do WE get the money?

While yes that is what those players are making now. Those are not the numbers or stats they had when they signed to their new deals that they are currently in.

Dwight Freeney’s current contract when into effect in 2007, after his second All-Pro season. His cap hit in the first two years were 3.25 million and 5.75 million

Dumervil after an All- Pro season in 2009. His first year cap hit was 3.67 million

Jared Allen, 2 time All-Pro got a new contract from the Vikes that cost them 3.3 million in the first year

My point with all of this is. One, all the players you listed had much more of a resume than Cliff does now. And second, like most NFL contracts, the above have heavy back loaded contracts. So, I do not see how Cliff deserves to be paid in the 8 to 10 million range in the first few years of a new contract.

The only exception obvious was Peppers who got a huge ass contract from the Bears. And I am sure they are probably regretting that one right about now.

The only

Per, Kevin Seifert NFC North playing-time tidbits

Depth issues at defensive end surfaced for several teams. The Vikings’ Jared Allen led all NFL players at his position by playing on 94.3 percent of his team’s snaps, and teammate Brian Robison ranked 11th among defensive ends by playing 84.4 percent. Meanwhile, the Bears’ Israel Idonije was on the field for 84.6 percent of his team’s snaps, with Julius Peppers close behind at 82.1. Obviously that foursome is a good group of players, but it’s also clear that their teams didn’t have backups they felt comfortable rolling in.

The reason our guys are not on this list. Our depth. If we give Avril that huge contract, depth somewhere is going to have to be sacrificed. I am sure everyone remembers our secondaries rather “poor” play late in the season. I think we can all agree, we need more depth everywhere, not less.

Cliff Avril signs with the Lions to a 5-year $10 million deal.

In a completely unrelated move, the Ford Motor Company contracts out some automotive testing and design work to a start-up engineering firm called “Avril and Associates, LLC” on a five-year $60 million deal.

I mentioned this above and it could be possible to do if several players cooperate. The problem is that I have not heard about renegotiation with Stafford or Suh, though they might be happening as we speak. Normally something like that would break in the news, but not always. If the Lions can restructure the deals for Stafford, Suh, and CJ so that they have lower cap numbers for the next two season, then they rise in 2014 then we might be able to get enough money to do everything we need. The cap is scheduled to rise in 2014 by about $50 million from the new broadcast contract taking effect.

disclaimer* Im sure the Lions do want to keep him and not let him get away, as fans most would not like to see him get away. Im one who would like to see him continue his career here.

I watched the phone interview w/ Avril on NFL Live yesterday and I’ll say he is going about this in a professional way and i cant disagree w/ him. He did stress that all he said on a hold out was that it was possible because well its just one of the options as a player he has and that it’s us fans and media who are stressing that Possibility more than him or his teammates he’s talked w/. He sounded heartfelt about wanting to continue to be a Lion and be on this team when they win a Superbowl. However he also knows this is a business and that it may not be able to happen.

w/ that said …. if a deal that isnt going to hurt them in the long run cant be worked out then its in their best interest to tag him w/ some sort of tag, the most reasonable and best fit would be the non exclusive and allow him to seek that deal he’s looking for. or if can tag and trade do that. In the long run the Lions will run into this problem again and its best to swallow that jagged little pill now. There would still be enough pieces to keep the core of the defense intact and able to make a playoff run. Not to mention Mayhew loves to trade in the draft getting a couple of sexy picks could really pay off not to mention theres still a lot of work to do to get the team complete and strong for a long run.