Cliff Avril and our Free Agents of (2013)
by Lionsfan012 on Feb 22, 2012 12:06 AM EST
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PrintCliff Avril has been in the news a lot lately, at least it seems that way for Lion's fans. There is no doubt that during the season Avril was our star defensive player and was arguably the biggest defensive play maker in the NFL last season. Consequently, Avril's career year should justifiy him to getting a bigger contract. Many of us on P.O.D continually debated just how big Avril's contract should be but generally agreed that what Avril was asking for was far too much (last I heard it was 12 million a year). Yes, Avril's year was not elite by any means compared to Jared Allen, Jason Pierre Paul, Jason Babin or even Chris Long but at 25 you pay for potential.
Now, here is the genesis of my post. There is absolutely no chance Mayhew lets Calvin Johnson walks after all renegotiating or re-signing (depending on when it happens) helps both parties. This in turn, should allow the Lions to create enough cap space to sign Tulloch to a 2 year deal. If you do not know this, signing bonuses count against the cap as well, for instance 20 million in signing bonus over 5 years is a 4 million dollar cap hit. The only place you create cap space is by back loading contracts, hence Tulloch's contract is probably only going to be 2 years. Back to my original thought, it's not the 2012 free agents we should worry about, it's our 2013 free agents. Remember how contracts are back loaded? Well, with Avril demanding such a huge contract we'll actually have less cap room than we have this year.
2013 Free Agents:
Berry
Cherilus
Delmas
Durant
Houston
Jackson
Spievey
Young
Hanson
Did not include Johnson*
I just wanted everyone to realize that keeping Tulloch is not of any importance when considering what we would lose if Avril eats up all of our 2013 cap space. I said you pay a price for potential and you're paying a lot if you re-sign Avril, Mayhew.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Pride of Detroit or its writers. FanPosts are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable fans.
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Interesting new look at it.
Looking at the list, though, I only see a couple of names that may feel like they deserve more money than what they are being paid now. I admit that I don’t know the first thing about contracts and bonuses and what not…. So would we be shelling out any more money for these guys next year than we are now?
Also, aren’t the salary caps supposed to raise every year by a certain amount? I’m not making counter arguments, I’m asking because I’m too lazy to look it up.
by LionsFanInJapan on Feb 22, 2012 1:13 AM EST reply actions
You are right
the 2013 Cap will likely be a bit higher.
When we’re looking at our Cap hits, you first need to look to our bigs (Stafford, Calvin, Suh) – what do their 2013 cap hits look like compared to 2012?
We might also be in a position to get rid or renegotiate the contracts of KVB and Burleson for 2013 – so this is a workable situation IMO
The boys are back in town!
The big one for me
Is Delmas, his current contract is quite the bargain. His next contract will be much, much more costly.
by Lionsfan012 on Feb 22, 2012 1:48 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Agree with Latif. What exactly has Delmas done to merit another contract.
Let alone a bigger one.
"I’m sorry for all the people who want us to run the ball 40 times a game, but we’re going to put the ball in No. 9’s hands and he’s going to make plays for us like he did today," Lions coach Jim Schwartz said. Amen to that Jim!
Well...
Louis Delmas is a steadying influence on the secondary. Both Gunny and Mayhew have commented on the number of mistakes by other players that he covers for. While he may not be real flashy at times, he is an important part of the defense.
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I see the contrary
He’s flashy and makes mistakes. Just because he’s a big hitter doesn’t mean he deserves another contract. Safeties are pretty easy to find in the draft (as proven by the Delmas pick). The Lions would be wise to just draft another one if Delmas’ demands are too high.
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What I am saying is...
that the plays where Delmas is at his best are not the flashy ones that you notice. I have seen a lot less of the missile in this last season and a lot more of him playing sideline to sideline and cleaning up plays. Sure, he still comes in out of control at times, but he is better than he used to be at that.
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OK, let me clarify my position here.
The two views that have been represented are both wildly inaccurate of the situation. While Delmas has not developed into the second coming of Ed Reed, he is still a better than average safety in the NFL. No, he does not deserve a fat All-Pro style contract, but saying he does not deserve a contract at all is going too far.
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Agreed with TuffLynx
The less I hear about Delmas the better, not to mention he is 24 and already was named a pro-bowl alternate. His play speaks for itself and the other coaches and players noticed.
Not worried by that at all
Young and Berry are RFAs. They will be tendered a contract. Corey will have to come back at a less price than 6 mil. Durant, LoJack, Delmas, and Houston could be re-signed by letting WIlliams walk. And the rest can be replaced via draft.
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Uh.
I just wanted everyone to realize that keeping Tulloch is not of any importance when considering what we would lose if Avril eats up all of our 2013 cap space
That’s why Avril won’t eat up that space. Tulloch is priority #1. Should be, anyway.
Aaron Berry > Eric Berry
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+1
Tulloch is priority #1. Should be, anyway.
I agree entirely, Biggie
"Life's hard. It's even harder when you're stupid."
- John Wayne
+ 2 Tully is number one priority
and no way he signs a two year deal. He’ll probably demand 3 yrs minimum and I don’t blame him. He deserves a 4 or 5 year contract.
by Lionsickness on Feb 22, 2012 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
Tulloch isn't priority number 1
Jeff Backus is. People forget he’s a free agent.
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by Latif Masud on Feb 22, 2012 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
Or people hate him so much...
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
by David Tokarz on Feb 22, 2012 12:27 PM EST up reply actions
and what would those people replace him with?
Corey Hilliard?
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by Latif Masud on Feb 22, 2012 12:33 PM EST up reply actions
Hey, I'm on your side here
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
by David Tokarz on Feb 22, 2012 11:26 PM EST up reply actions
Not worried about Backus walking.
He’ll sign.
It’s Tulloch I’m worried about.
"Life's hard. It's even harder when you're stupid."
- John Wayne
Like the Cardinals didn't give a crap about Albert Pujos?
You gotta give a veteran the respect he deserves. He is critical for the offense. We can survive without Tulloch. You could just move Levy back to the middle and have carpenter start in his spot, but we don’t have a reliable backup at left tackle.
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I'm not saying don't give him the respect he deserves
I’m saying they will definitely come to terms with him. Thus, I’m not worried about losing him.
I’d agree losing Backus would definitely be worse than losing Tulloch, but I’m saying I doubt very highly Backus signs with another team. Especially with his injury (though I guess he’s better now). The FO loves the guy, he’s a MI man, and I think the Lions will give him a fair deal.
Tulloch? I don’t know. Kinda reminds me of the Larry Foote situation. I really didn’t want to get rid of Foote at the time. (Though his comments after the fact sure made it a bit easier) Though Tulloch is MUCH better, obviously. I just don’t want the Lions to get rid of Tulloch.
(PS- Your baseball talk might as well be greek to me. lol)
"Life's hard. It's even harder when you're stupid."
- John Wayne
Hmm, that is an interesting take Latif
but I am going to disagree for one reason.
Jeff Backus is a born and bred Michigan guy. He is winding down his career and I do not see him uprooting his family to get a couple more years on a contract. I firmly believe that he will stay with the Lions or he will retire. So I feel it is less of a risk to allow Backus to hit the open market than it is for Tulloch. That makes Tulloch a higher priority to sign before free agency begins.
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That's one way of looking at it
Another way is that there are barely any good left tackles in free agency. If the Lions think they can simply get away with offering Backus a low ball offer, then they might be in for a surprise. I remember how the Pistons and the fans thought that Ben Wallace was going to be here forever, but he left for Chicago when he got a lucrative offer. Backus might do the same if the Lions don’t take him seriously.
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That is not really the same situation.
Ben Wallace left for Chicago because his wife pressed him to do it for the money. Wallace was in the prime of his career and that was the only shot he was going to get at a big contract because the next one would be when he was getting old as Backus is now.
Backus is winding his career down and he has already had his big contract with the Lions. He is not going to get serious consideration as a long term solution by other teams at his age. Picking up his family and moving them at this point for what is likely to be only a couple of seasons is not a very attractive option. It is much more likely that Backus would simply retire if the Lions did not offer him enough to play. I think that maybe $3 million per season is enough to make him play another couple of years with the Lions.
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Wallace was 31 when he left
He had a fairly decent contract with the Pistons, but Chicago offered him even more. Would it be crazy for a team that needs a LT to offer up backus something like a 4 year 20 mil deal knowing how durable he is? I really don’t think so. It’s not the norm, but the market for left tackles is very thin this year, and if its a big time competitor that wants Backus? What if its the Baltimore Ravens or Pittsburgh Steelers who want Backus? They both need LTs pretty bad. He wouldn’t have to uproot his family, a lot of players leave their families in other places. Its just a four month job anyways.
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Perhaps I should've been more concise
I don’t mean losing Tulloch isn’t a huge blow but rather if we lose Tulloch compared to losing Delmas, Houston, Williams, Jackson, etc which is the greater loss?
by Lionsfan012 on Feb 22, 2012 12:24 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Linebackers are always pretty easy to find
Besides, there are MLBs that I feel have more upside than Tully out there in free agency. Guys like Curtis Lofton or De’Qwell Jackson are more physically talented, and younger in the case of Lofton
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by Latif Masud on Feb 22, 2012 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
Those guys are not really an option
Cleveland has already said they want Jackson back and Jackson has been clear that he wants to stay with the Browns. The prevailing wisdom says that the Browns will franchise Jackson before they lose him. There have already been implications of that from Browns management.
Curtis Lofton is a fine player and probably an upgrade over Tulloch. The problem is that he also wants more money than Tulloch. He has already openly stated that he wants a David Harris type deal. If the Lions cannot afford Tulloch, they certainly will not be able to afford Lofton.
So now what are the options to Tulloch that are better?
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There are none
Same with Backus for this coming season. That is why unless a huge salary comes off from a trade (I’m not certain that will free up enough room) it looks like Avril may leave.
5 players making starting $ on the DL and only 4 spots…
We rotate the D Linemen. It keeps them fresh for the fourth quarter.
And we currently only pay three guys like real starters; Suh, Corey, and KVB.
The rest of the guys make less than $3M per year, which in Cliff’s case especially, is a bargain.
"I’m sorry for all the people who want us to run the ball 40 times a game, but we’re going to put the ball in No. 9’s hands and he’s going to make plays for us like he did today," Lions coach Jim Schwartz said. Amen to that Jim!
If you pay an AVERAGE of $2.5M to each player
That’s over $130M or $10M over the cap. Yes, less than $3M can sound like a bargain when you are talking about free agents making $12M a year. But you can only shell out so much coin and you need to not pay that to non-starters – rotation or not. The lions will have to pick three maybe four star players to retain. The question is Avril one of them?
Avril will make much more than that next year and Fairley is right in the ballpark. That makes 5 that will make starting salaries next year.
by Hungry Lion on Feb 22, 2012 10:05 PM EST up reply actions
It really does not work that way.
The CAP hits are not distributed normally. The NFL has a small group of players that get paid a very high amount, balanced by a much larger group getting paid near the minimum [say less than $800K]. Successful teams can keep plugging in young, cheap players and get value out of them for a few years, instead of going for more expensive veterans. Willie Young and Sammie Lee filled those roles the last year.
If personnel decisions were just made by the numbers I think the Lions would let KVB and Corey go, sign Cliff for around $10M, and fill those two openings on the line with cheaper draft picks [third round or later] or very inexpensive FAs. As our line is currently structured we are overpaying players for their on field performance. I agree with you there.
"I’m sorry for all the people who want us to run the ball 40 times a game, but we’re going to put the ball in No. 9’s hands and he’s going to make plays for us like he did today," Lions coach Jim Schwartz said. Amen to that Jim!
No question this is making things simplistic
Starting with the assumption that there is an average salary per player on the team. The starters are of course paid more and the reserves less. For every dollar over average you spend above average per player you have to spend a dollar less for a reserve. The roster is 53 players and about half (including well paid special team players) are starters.
$120M over the entire team (last years cap; which you want to have some room in the cap) creates an average of about $2.25M so I’m going with $2M to create some cushion. Anyone that you spend $2M or more on that is not a starter, will create a starting position on the team that you will have to underpay for.
Further taking into account superstars that you are paying $10M+ a year on is going to force you to pay 4+ men the minimum for. Four $10M stars on the team forces you to have about 16 minimum wage reservists. That is more than a quarter of the team that is making the minimum.
My point is you have to pick your 3 or 4 stars and then be willing to let the other talent that develops walk (hoping you chose well). So that there is good depth on the team. There is no room in the salary cap to pay reserves starting $. Especially as you noted when they are overpaid for their “on the field performance”.
by Hungry Lion on Feb 23, 2012 12:16 PM EST up reply actions
Seeing how Tulloch's agent is Drew Rosenhaus
I don’t see stephen tulloch being cheap either.
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by Latif Masud on Feb 22, 2012 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I didn't know Rosenhaus was a Jedi name!
Family guy reference, for those wondering.
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No, he won't be cheap...
but he won’t be David Harris type money either as Lofton is looking for.
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Looking for and getting it are two different things
Tulloch was suppose to be very expensive too remember.
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True, but that plays equally for Tulloch as it does for Lofton.
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Yes, but...
I’d rather have Tully back than switch MLB’s every year.
Aaron Berry > Eric Berry
When anyone says, "I’ll kick your ass" its implied that they’ll be using Hanson’s leg. -Leonuro
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